Episode 47: Technicals Tell The Story with Jay Woods, CMT
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Welcome to Fill the Gap, the official podcast series of the CMT Association, hosted by David Lundgren and Tyler Wood. This monthly podcast will bring veteran market analysts and money managers into conversations that will explore the interviewee's investment philosophy, their process, and decision-making tools.

By learning more about their key mentors, early influences, and their long careers in financial services, Fill the Gap will highlight lessons our guests have learned over many decades and multiple market cycles. Join us in conversation with the men and women of Wall Street who discovered, engineered, and refined the discipline of technical market analysis.

Fill the Gap is brought to you with support from Optima, a professional charting and data analytics platform. Whether you're a professional analyst, portfolio manager, or trader, Optima provides advanced technical and quantitative software to help you discover financial opportunities. Candidates in the CMT program gain free access to these powerful tools during the course of their study. Learn more at Optima.com. ♪

Welcome to episode 47 of Fill the Gap, the CMT's official podcast and season five kickoff. David Lundgren, how are you doing, my friend? I'm doing so wonderful. I'm looking out the window watching some snowfall, so I can't wait to put the skis on. I know. December 20th, 2024, our first guest of the new year doesn't have the privilege of getting to see where the market's going to be at by January 1st.

But nonetheless, we had an incredible conversation with Jay Woods, fellow CMT charterholder, and I promise doesn't share any genetic material with me or my family. But Dave, highlights from this conversation with Jay from the floor of the Stock Exchange.

I think that was it. Throughout the entire conversation, the floor was his background. So that's all we could watch is people running around on the floor as we spoke. And, you know, I'm pretty certain I'm the oldest one in this conversation, but I literally felt like I was sitting at the footstool of my grandfather listening to him regale about the stories of the old days. And it was just spectacular. It was such a fun conversation. And I really, really enjoyed it. And he's such a wonderful guy. So it's just such a great conversation.

We are so lucky to have him on the board of directors and in the community. I think you said more than once on the call that, Jay, you're actually one of my favorite people to hang out with at CMT events. And I

I think it's like dog years. If you're serving as a market maker on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, you're living three lifetimes to those of us who didn't have that experience, right? Yeah, exactly. Jay joined Spear Leads and Kellogg in the early 1990s, 91, I think he said, and

And what a tremendous evolution of open outcry trading and the advance of technology that were very disruptive and yet have propelled us to where we are today.

Dave, highlights from Jay's point of view as a market strategist now for Freedom Capital Markets. What stood out to you? The one thing that I really appreciate from folks who we have these discussions with is just how almost invariably, I think it's every person has always come back to keep it simple.

And he went out of his way to just talk about how he's bullish for the 25, but how he can sit there and give all these fundamental reasons and he can try to come up with things to sound really smart. But at the end of the day, he's not trying to impress you about his intelligence. He's trying to help you as an investor. And the best way to help somebody is to keep it simple. That's not just true in investing. It's true in life, right? Reduce it down to brass tacks, first principles, John Bollinger.

and just operate by those principles. And that's what trend following is all about. That's what technicals are all about. And Jay's process, clearly, we didn't get too, too deep into the weeds of his process, but clearly at the end of the day, he's

He's striving, like all of us, to keep it simple. Absolutely. And for those listeners that aren't following Jay on every social media platform or reading his Monday morning note from Freedom Capital Markets, it's a highly recommended read because he does keep it simple and yet pulls the story together. So with that, enjoy episode 47 with Jay Woods, CMT.

Welcome to Fill the Gap, the official podcast of the CMT Association. My name is Dave Lundgren, and as always, I'm joined by my good friend and fellow CMT charterholder, Tyler Wood. In this episode, we are joined by Jay Woods, CMT. Jay has an incredible career trajectory that I can't wait for him to share with our listeners, ranging from trading on the New York Stock Exchange floor to actually being a part of CMT royalty.

Currently, Jay is the Chief Global Strategist at Freedom Capital Markets. He's also a very valued member of the CMT Board of Directors and a frequent guest on financial news and various podcasts. Jay Woods, welcome to Fill the Gap.

Well, welcome. Thank you for having me. This is great. You guys have been doing this for what, five seasons now? You're finally having me on? I'm getting slighted, but no, I'm super excited to be here. It's a podcast I listen to regularly, and the guests, you talk about CMT Royalty. You've had them all, so I'm honored to be one of the many great people that have been on this podcast.

Jay, it's great to see you. And nice to see that there's still trading happening at the New York Stock Exchange this close to a holiday break period. Yeah, and it's a little loud behind me. Some of the animals are getting restless. It's around lunchtime as we tape this. So that's probably why. And it's a day where the market's had a nice reversal. So people are kind of giddy. So that's a good thing. That's great. Obviously, volatility has been off the charts recently.

really past 10 years, but in particular, the last couple of days. So I'm really looking forward to getting your insights on it because you've got a lot of different perspectives, both long-term and short-term, having lived through some pretty crazy stuff, live on the floor, as an analyst, as a trader, et cetera. So we have so much to cover. I think a lot of us kind of understand how you got to this business and

you know, and, you know, a little bit about your career path, but it's so incredibly interesting. Why don't you share a bit with our listeners, for those that don't know you, and then we'll dive right into it.

Yeah, well, since this is the CMT podcast, I can't go without mentioning what got me involved in trading in the first place. And that would be the founder of the CMT, my uncle, Ralph Acampora, who, you know, when I was a little eight-year-old, bought me two shares of IBM, my first stock. And there was one condition. He lived in the Bronx. I lived in Philadelphia, the greatest city in the world. And I had to chart... Yeah. Oh, yeah. Go, Bert. And I had to chart...

It's going to be unpredicted. I have a big prediction at the end of this show. You wait. But no, when he gave me those two shares of IBM, there was a little caveat attached to it. I had no idea what it was. I got graph paper and a pencil and I had to do a weekly bar chart. And I was, you know, high, low, close, high, low, close. And I did this for a couple of months. And then he comes down to visit and he goes, you got your chart? I go, yeah, I got my chart. I don't know what the hell this is, but what am I doing? And he takes a ruler and a line and he draws a,

line underneath, you know, those consecutive lows that continue to go higher. And he goes, what direction are they going in? I go, they're going up. He goes, yeah, that's an uptrend. This is a great stock. You know, I'm like, okay, you got two shares. I know it pays like a quarter point dividend. So I get 50 cents every three months. Yay me. Uh,

But it was my first for a train to technicals. I really didn't do much after that. I went to college to study law. I came up here to New York to go to Fordham University. And then it was through Ralph again. I needed some drinking money while I was at Fordham. And so he set me up with an internship on a trading desk. Now, Trent.

Trading desk, 1990, 1991, very different world than what you see now. It's just like the 1987 movie Wall Street, Charlie Sheen yelling on the phones. And I got up there, and that was euphoric. I wasn't charting stocks at that time. I was trading answering calls, understanding that high-paced atmosphere and throttling.

And I parlayed that internship to an interview down here on the floor from Spearleys and Kellogg. They hired me. The first couple of questions were not your standard questions. They asked me if I played softball. I did. We did win a championship a year after I joined. So that was very good. And then for six months, I got lunch.

It was a different world because at the New York Stock Exchange, when there were 5,000 animals, as we lovingly call the people that work down here, it was kill or be killed. And I got lunch for six months under the understanding, if I couldn't do this right, how are you going to get in front of a crowd and trade 10 stocks with 10 different personalities if I can't get 10 lunch orders right and handle the personalities of those demanding people? And it was Karate Kid training at its finest. And the good Karate Kid, obviously, not the remakes.

And that was what got me into trading. The technicals came a little later, and we can pause now, and we can talk about how that evolved. But my background ended up being trading, which was very different than Ralph had been doing for years. So you're saying you're making the distinction, I guess, between trading on the floor and

versus like swing trading from your mother's basement, right? Because it's kind of like, it's, are you basically saying that you relied less on technicals on the floor? Because that's more about flows. Well,

I did for a little while. In the beginning, when you had a junior trader come in and get a tap on the shoulder from his boss, and that was a senior trader, you knew that was a tell. This is a big order. You want to be on the right side of this guy. Personalities dictated. But I did know the charts. I took Ralph's class several times, 92, 93, 94. And I would use different basic levels, support, resistance, defense.

and look at different indicators, I would slowly put them into my process. But when you have a crowd in front of you, you didn't have time to like, "Hold on, let me get my chart and see what it tells me to do here." You had to react. So I was a professional day trader because as a market maker, my job was to buy and sell and manage risk all day. So I was great with numbers. And the charts were what I looked at before I started trading.

And sometimes news would break, I'd rip up the chart, throw it out the window, I'd just deal with the crowd in front of me. But as markets evolved, as there were less and less people, as algorithms and technology took over, it was the edge that I had that really helped me thrive and survive in an atmosphere where your personality would only get you so far. And then one thing people don't realize, the market makers here at the New York Stock Exchange, the only equity exchange with a human element,

We reported back to my company. So ironically enough, later on in life, those two shares of IBM when I started down here, I just sell them. They were eight when they split a couple of times because we were the market maker in that stock. How ironic. I worked for the market maker in IBM. Then years and years later, I became the market maker for IBM for a small stint in my career.

And it just was, you know, like full circle. But when technology changed and the herd started to thin and people started using algorithms to trade and they traded based on volume weighted average price and not, I'm going to buy it down $2 because my customer is going to love me. And if I'm right, you'll get rewarded. Like,

Only price pays. I know Brian Shannon says it, Ralph says it. It is what I live by. And to see that change go to a point where people wanted average price, it drove me crazy. But there are technical indicators that follow that sentiment. And I would get ideas, OK, now it's skewed off to the VWAP, VWAP breaking out here. And I

I became good friends with Brian Shannon and through the CMT Association, through a CMT event. And we I started using different things and then it was slowed down here.

And here's another thing. I never had my CMT. Ralph's my uncle. He founded the organization. Never got my CMT until 2017. I was here in 1992. It took me 25 years. Tyler, you nagged me about it a lot. I know that. JC Peretz was the one that really nagged me the most. How the hell don't you have it? Like, I live it every day. But I saw changes coming. And when you talk to companies...

Sometimes stocks move, and there's no rationale. There's no news in their stock to say, oh, well, yeah, that was a great upgrade by Morgan Stanley that caused the stock to rally 5% today. No, but you just broke out of a long-term base, and momentum came into it. Your RSI was oversold, and now it's starting to come back, and now we're getting momentum back into the name. Back to the crossovers, I had to explain what those were to them. But those were the little momentum indicators that I saw work and change.

When I studied for this, this was the greatest way to study. I was trading with my firm's money. So most of my time, I was with Goldman Sachs from 2000 to 2014, then another smaller firm, IMC, that took over the operation from Goldman when they left the market-making side. And while I was trading, I'd have my CMT books, and I'd be studying Bollinger Bands. I'm like, all right, we're going to trade Generac using a Bollinger Band crossover. And I'd use

my firm's money. They didn't know it at the time. They could find out the statute of limitations is over. But I would use that in real time, and I'd buy 1,000 shares, 5,000 shares. I wouldn't do it with my own personal account, but

But at point of sale, when you had that time and you were trying to learn by doing, which I think is the best way to learn anything. I mean, I don't know anything about crypto, but I own some and now I follow it because I have a little exposure to it. I still don't know when the earnings come out, but I just know it tends to be very volatile.

The CMT is what changed my direction because I couldn't yell and scream or be yelled and screamed at and sent to crowd. I needed an advantage, and it was all about risk-reward management, and it still is. I say this every time I talk to somebody, well, what's the best thing about using the technicals? It gives you the best odds, risk-reward. If the risk

is more favorable, then I want to avoid it. But if the reward is more favorable, then I will get into a name knowing what my risk is. And that is how I trade as a short-term trader. I'd buy something for five seconds. I'd be out as a longer-term trader. And now as an analyst talking about the markets, I have to know my timeframes. And I have to use them very wisely. And then when I do my weekly newsletter for Freedom Capital Markets, I give three stocks that we're watching.

And they're based on earnings. And Micron just came out with earnings as we taped this. And if you look at that on a weekly chart, it was in a really interesting apex. So I write, all right, risk-reward setup. Something's going to happen. What's that catalyst? It's going to be earnings. If it breaks down, then watch this level for your target. If it breaks out, the uptrend continues, and your upside target should be this.

I don't know what the earnings are going to be. Okay. And, and you know, spoiler alert, they missed and traded down. And now you look for your next downside levels. But when I analyze markets, I look at the overall picture and I always look at multiple timeframes on technical levels. And I try to,

put away that day trader, swing trader guy that thrived down here from '92 to 2020 and put on that analytical role. And when I analyze, I like to use my trading experience, my trading stories, and people like trading stories. I think we'll probably hit a few during this podcast.

and put it into perspective to give the people that are listening to me why I like a certain sector, what the risks are if you get into this sector, but what the potential rewards are. Because too many people now, as an analyst, I go on TV, and they're like, hey, great call in Palo Alto Networks, or what were you thinking in FedEx?

I'm immune. I'm going to make mistakes. But if I don't set it up, letting you know that, yeah, there is a downside risk. And if it does something that I am not prepared for,

I'm going to get out. There are 3,000 different stocks you can trade. And that's before you go to the ETF pool and crypto and everything else that you can track. So to me, the evolution, unfortunately, the de-evolution of the floor and losing the people, you have to make yourself relevant and technicals and getting that CMT designation and being involved with the organization and being able to tell a story about

sectors and stocks and putting it in different timeframes has allowed me to go on to television. They asked me back and I don't take that for granted.

I'm only as good as my last appearance. And if I say something stupid, I'm gone. Listen, as a trader, you know that too. If you blow up, you know, Alan Shaw's class, CMT level two going way back in 1994, four things happen when you enter a trade, small loss, small gain. These happen all the time and you're going to see them every single day. The goal is a big gain. Yes. But if you just avoid the one thing, the big loss, then you'll have longevity and you'll be able to,

take those small losses and recoup from them slowly over time. And so the technicals has been the roadmap, if you will, to use like a charting kind of pun and to be able to really understand it and put it to work and then put that experience into stories when you talk about what you're seeing in the different sectors, the rotation that we see, seasonal factors,

I'm learning every day. And if anyone ever says, hey, look, I've been in this business for 30 plus years and I've seen it all, walk away. I mean, that's the greatest thing about what we do as analysts, about traders,

We don't know what the next day is going to bring. It's infuriating. It makes us go crazy. Had great hair, Tyler. I don't know if you knew me back in the day, but oh my god, it was so good. I'd say you just found a great barber, Jay. You look fabulous. So a lot of technicians talk about the power of our toolkit to help separate emotions from your investment decisions. And I believe strongly in that, that you want to be objective.

But I wanted to ask you if there is benefit to being surrounded by thousands of animals, as you say, in the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Did emotion ever play a positive role in helping you get through a trading day?

That's a good question. There are stories that people could tell. I was very emotional. I still can be very emotional. I had a little bit of a hothead in this to me, thank God. I think I moved on from that where I punched computer screens, got into small arguments with people, you know, bitched and moaned when someone came back as a seller again and again and again. And you're like, oh, my God.

But they would do that. They would try to get a motion out of you. And I would do the same thing as a specialist, AKA designated market maker. I would use a motion to get buyers to step up and buy.

I would use technical, if I see resistance, resistance, resistance, I'll tell you one quick story because I got a lot of trouble for this. In the statute of limitations, I hope it's over, I will mention the stock. It was an old Dow stock, United Technologies, and this is pennies. It was trading $74.99, $75. So $0.99 the figure, back and forth, back and forth. It was 200,000 shares offered the figure.

And I'm like, this thing wants to go. If I take this offer, the VWAP is going to be screwed up. This thing is going to jump. And I said something to my boss. It was like, we can't get long. You know, you do the math, 200,000 times 75. That's a lot of risk. And I'm like, you're not going out of business in the next five minutes at United Technology. But if I take this, it's going to go. And I let my emotions and behavior get the best of me. And I took 200,000 shares at 75. Well, guess what? The stock is gone.

And I'm like, so, so, so. And I couldn't get out of the position fast enough before I got a call from upstairs. Why are we long, you know, $20 million worth of United Technologies? And I'm like, because it's going up? That wasn't a good enough answer. So you could see...

way back in the day, like me hitting that bit every time it filled in, lighting up position. Yes. Five days later, it was up five points. And I try not to say that I mumbled that under my breath because they don't want to hear that. They, they wanted me to manage risk better than I did, but my emotions got in the way, but emotions, uh,

When you're sitting there trading by yourself, if there's a day trader, swing trader in the audience, yeah, it's emotional, but you have to find ways to deal with it. You go for a walk, you put on some music, you get away, or if you can't handle it, get out and trade. You know what? This isn't for me, but here's the hard part. What we always do is we look back. Oh, yeah, what happened? How did this movie end? Oh, my God, I was right. It was up two. And then you beat yourself up. Yeah.

Then you want to reward yourself, say, listen, my idea was right. My thesis was right. And, you know, I would write notes about things I did right, things I did wrong to help me get through certain times. So, you know, it is it can be a lonely job if you're doing this on your own by yourself. I think social media has been amazing.

such a blessing for the trading community, whether it's a platform like StockTwitch, our organization, the CMT, Twitter. I have met some of the greatest people in our community through social media sharing ideas. And as long as we do so respectfully, I'll put up a chart. Hey, it looks like stock XYZ is breaking out. Someone goes, what the hell are you looking at? If I can get into a friendly conversation to try to learn,

I will do that. If I share ideas and people like them, then we go. I have to be careful what I share nowadays because I am a little different as far as I'm not a professional day trader. I'm not attached here. I'm trying to

look at things in a bigger, longer term scope. But to me, the social committee, the social media aspect and the socializing, talking to other traders, learning about their process, learning how they handle emotions, what they do to study and prepare. And then I love asking people what

indicator do you go by? And it's amazing how I will scoff at some people and I will probably scoff at some names you mentioned, whether it's each local cloud or Gann or Fibonacci, like they all have, they all have nice characteristics to it. But, and if it works for you and your process, then by

means go for it. There are great things, and I'll use them to justify some of my other decisions, but it's not what I'm basing them on. I keep it as simple as possible. That's just the way I try to do it. ED HARRISON: Jay, what year did you say you came off the floor? JAY POLDING: Well, technically, I'm on the floor still. I have access to this great place, the world capital of finance, my booth, my firm as a broker, a retail broker here at the New York Stock Exchange Prime Executions.

And they were the ones that got in my ear when they heard I was available. So I am no longer, you know,

trading like I once did. I went from this market-making side to the retail side, but I will talk to customers and I will talk to family offices and clients about my thoughts on the market. So I'm attached to the floor, but my last day of trading was October 28th, 2020, right after COVID. Not that I remember this vividly. Obviously, I do. But yeah, I

Well, when it happened, I didn't know what the next steps were going to be. And thankfully, my experience and my knowledge of the markets, my CMT designation, these were very attractive things to people looking for something different.

I could have tried to latch on to a different market making firm when mine left the operation. I'm glad I didn't because staring at a computer screen all day, no offense to those that day trade and look at computers all day, I'm more of a people person. I like to tell a story about the market. I realized I'm okay at it, at least

you know, you're doing five TV appearances a day, Jay, you're very good at it. And you know, one day at a time, my friend, uh, it's been a good year. And, uh, you know, one of my, my main guys, Neil Cavuto is retiring. My, the first, my first, you never forget your first. And Neil was my first national appearance. And he's, uh, he's moving on. I'm looking forward to hearing what he's doing next. Uh,

And I wish him well. But yeah, Tyler, like trading one day at a time. And I appreciate it. And I know, yes, I've been on all the big networks and quoted a lot. And it's humbling. But once again, I know you're one bad trade away from that ending. And I don't take these things for granted. When I left this building October 28, 2020, I didn't know I was coming back in. If you go to my LinkedIn, I still have it up there as a remembrance of one

how stressful that time was and two, how nice people were. I had over 400 responses to a LinkedIn post saying today was my last day. And if I ever feel down, I go back and I read. And that was such a confidence boost. The community that we have in the financial world and the CMT organization, they were that wind in my sails. And I never imagined

not trading like I did. I never imagined this pivot, but I can't thank those people enough for just taking the time to like a post and give me a word of encouragement. Uh, because you don't realize it's like, Hey, listen, I'm confident. I knew something else would come up, but, uh, to hear from somebody else is always nice. So I do appreciate. Yes. I'm on TV a lot. Um, and you want me to plug a few appearances? I'll be on. Uh,

Yeah, it's fun and it's always interesting. And one of these days I'll say something really stupid and it'll be over. You're crushing it. You're a great follow on social media, too. I love all your activity there as well. Can you... This is such a unique opportunity because explain to our listeners what it was like to be on the floor during the global financial crisis. I mean, that must have been...

Something you'll never forget. I mean, I was a portfolio manager at Wellington, and it was something I will never forget. And I can only imagine multiply that times 100, and I might just be scratching the surface on your memories.

I, yeah, I wish I blogged about that. I did blog during COVID and I look back on it now and we forget how severe that was, but the great financial crisis, that was very personal for me. That is when, you know, we were going electronic here and there were still three to 4,000 people on the floor. That was the gasoline on the fire to basically go, all right, technology up, people down, costs down. And I knew everything.

the floor unit for Bear Stearns. They had over 35 employees down here. Lehman Brothers over 50. These are people I dealt with regular, you know, every day. I worked for Goldman. Our stock went to 49 and a half during that. I thought we were next. And I just remember,

every day looking over my shoulder and to put it into perspective. And this is crazy. My firm Goldman in 2005, we had 330 people. By the end of the financial crisis, 2011, 330 down to 15. So I survived.

The Game of Survivor, the game show, before it got all woke and whatnot, was my favorite show to watch on TV. I haven't seen it. Jeff Brooks is a lovely man. But, you know, I just, I got other things to do. I got to study charts and talk to you guys now. But the...

That living through it was very personal because I lost friends, people that were at my wedding, people that I talked to and hung out with their kids on Kids Day. So I always look back very fondly on that.

those people and that time, because there was no place in the world like this. And the great financial crisis, like if it was a person, I'd punch it in the face because it changed this place. It changed how we do things. But like everything else, you have to adapt to survive. I was able to do it. I didn't like the fact that I was one of the final 15. I had no, you know, none of my counterparts that I really grew up and learned the most from with me.

But those other 14 people that made it with me, some of my closest friends and people that I have mad respect for. So the financial crisis took on so many different levels. From a trading point of view, you want to hear a fun trading story? Remember there were two weeks where you couldn't short stocks? Well, one group of people could short stocks. The market makers, the specialists. So the swings that we would see in some of these financial stocks were insane. And at the end of the day, fire!

Because guess what? They're going to have to cover their shorts and go home flat. So the amount of money that we were able to make because the rules were so stupid was nothing like I ever experienced. And then the downside was

I got no bonus that year, and I understood it because the rest of the operation didn't do well. The volatility and the volume that we saw on a daily basis made for a great trading environment. You don't want to look back on that time and say, hey, I crushed it. Well, personally, I didn't because we all got

Kip clipped at the knees, and I understood why. But those good times, unfortunately, never really came back. And a lot of that had to do with the lack of the human element and the way we really bifurcated the market system. But great financial crisis.

was rough living through that every day. I mean, there were literally people throwing up when the call from upstairs came and you had to hug people goodbye and go home and say, hey, yeah, I survived another day, which I was blessed to do so. And that's why another reason I don't take things for granted. You can't because you're

There is going to be a next big thing. I'm not going to be that pundit to go and predict, OK, XYZ is going to happen, and the market's going to crash. No one predicted a global pandemic and what the market would do. And then no one predicted that we'd have the greatest rally ever during a global pandemic. I mean, that just sounds stupid. The COVID rally

That is an oxymoron, but that's what's great about this job. You don't know what's going to go on. But I will tell you, I do get a lot of questions, the greatest day down here, and

And the great financial crisis was a dark day. There was a darker day, September 11th. That was a Tuesday. Beautiful day. Sunny skies, everything. Those who lived it know it. You remember every second of that day, every smell, every noise. You remember it. You still dream about it. But September 11th, we know what happened. We never opened. I was able to get off the island before the cloud, thank God. And I got home. But

That was a dark day, but the greatest day I've ever been a part of here at the New York Stock Exchange. And I lost a lot of money that day. I have no idea how much I lost. It was September 17, 2001. When you talk about a patriotic moment, I mean, I look at the guys that served. My God, I could never do that. But I came to work that day. And if you remember that time, if you're old enough to remember it, Broadway was closed. No Mets, no Yankees, no NFL. No NFL.

Lennerman and Leno, those are the big late-night talk show hosts. They couldn't make people laugh. They couldn't go back to work. We were the first people to go back to work, and we were three blocks from the epicenter. I took a boat over at 6 a.m. with 10 of my colleagues, and we were escorted through three security checks, some guys with a machine gun and a paparazzi guy. Took a great picture of my friends that made Time Life magazine. My arm is in it. I was a little bummed about that, but...

Yeah, yeah. I know that arm. And I can show you the boat I was on on 9-11 when I exited this area. But we came back to work that day. And it was the most somber thing in the world. And then you would see different groups of people come in because we didn't have the texting ability we do have today. We didn't know who was where, how they got home, what is new. We lost two members that day because they were at a meeting on Windows on the World, Sutcliffe and Sullivan.

That was awful. But everyone else managed to get out that day and get home and then return to work. And when we did, it was the most patriotic thing I've ever been a part of. Imagine that bell podium that's right behind me now with the fire chief, the police chief, the mayor, Rudy Giuliani, our senator, Hillary Clinton, embracing. Imagine that scene today. I don't think you can. Wow.

But yeah, right. Yeah. That's how close we became. And the brotherhood sisterhood I share with those that work down here, it's an unspeakable bond will never be broken. We came to work.

and let freedom ring. That was the theme of the bell. And when that bell rang, it was a big, can I curse on the show? It was a big middle finger to the rest of the world that, yo, you knocked this down and we're back. And to be a very small piece by just going to work that day and making markets, talking to my listed companies, knowing their stocks were gonna be down,

And they didn't care. They asked if I was all right. It was really one of the most special things I've ever been a part of. Don't want to be part of it again, to be honest with you. But that community, that was the highlight. The global financial crisis was, you know, just saying goodbye. And that was just awful. Yeah, Jay, that was...

Thank you so much for sharing that. I was going to ask you about it, but I didn't want to go there just in case it was too sensitive or whatever. But I really appreciate you telling that story and sharing it with our listeners. And it's just fantastic. And

And we'll add a link to the session that you did over at our India summit. And you talked a little bit even more detail about how you got off the island that day. It's an incredible story. But I think you touch upon-- Did I tell them I swam? Because if I told them I swam, I was lying.

I don't remember the story. You're an incredible swimmer. Yeah. You're touching upon something that's pretty unique to open outcry trading environments, which is that there's fierce competition, right? You are trading against the other traders and yet it's very collaborative. And that bond that you have both with clients and other traders

market-making firms on the floor is pretty remarkable. And I feel like the technology advancements in trading has made it a pretty isolated activity. And I think for a lot of our listeners, whether you're running a portfolio or trading individually,

it can be lonely. And that sense of community that you had on the floor is something we try to recreate within the CMT Association and make sure people don't feel so isolated while they're engaged in this kind of activity. Yeah.

So, Jay, and that's a great segue. Hold on. I want to add to your point, because I think that's a great point. The CMT Association, after COVID, we kind of separated and we're trying to bring it back. You being the president, Dave and I being very involved on the board.

And we're starting to see it. And we want to have more get togethers. We just had a Christmas get together. And you meet other people with the same interest and you talk. It is a great community. And it's something we've recognized we need to get back to more face-to-face events, more collaboration among people. Because as a trader, it can be extremely lonely. But when you have this community that

had to go through this grueling test. We make the test a little easier for the love of God. We're only making them harder, Jay. You're going to study like I study. You know what? You actually did make it easier because when I got here, read these 10 books and the test is somewhere in there. Don't make the test any easier. When I took the test, it was 10 books. Here you go. Read those 10 books and now we're going to give you a test time. Now, we have a great curriculum. We've

which I think is a must for just college students trying to learn the markets about basic indicators, how to risk manage. So to me, yes, I'm a homer. I'm talking my game. I'm involved in the organization. But what it will teach you and the network that the organization provides, I think, is important for any trader who is looking to hone their skills.

And shout out to Matthew Verdow and the Optima organization. My son just took level one of CMT, and he can't speak more highly enough of the whole sample exams and the whole test prep process they have available on Optima. So I remember back in the day, Jay, the third level was an exam that was a

essay form which was not fun either um but before before we move too far from the training because we want to get to like what you're doing at freedom and and talk about the markets and things like that i don't know if you can answer this question uh without putting at risk your uh your relationships with everybody on the floor and all but you you're again you just i have to ask the question because you're in a unique spot yeah are there things that our listeners should

would like to know that they probably don't know that they should know about trading that you know they should know about trading because you're on the floor and there are little things that like you see they do that they really shouldn't be doing but because they're listening to the man right now they would they would really appreciate you telling them about

Yeah, and it's hard. What I will say is panic as a market maker being the other side of that trade was something that we relished. But at the same time, I'm human. I had a pit in my stomach. When stocks are tanking, and I have to be the buyer of last resort,

I am buying. I'm taking that a little farther because I sense that panic and cost averaging in. You always have to put things in terms of cost average. When you start talking in bets, which is a great book, I'm not trying to downplay it, but when you start with a gambler's mentality, you are losing.

losing a little bit because this shouldn't be gambling to you. And yes, I can make every analogy. I probably throw them out there all the time. Like, oh, I just doubled down on this one. No, I cost averaged in. But it's those times of panic.

When you feel that knot in your stomach, it's probably time to buy. And guess what? When you're looking at your 401k and you're like, oh, we're having a great year. Oh, pump the brakes a little bit. Take a little off the table because guess what? Euphoric is setting in. So those emotions, those highs and lows,

or where people like me as a former market maker used to really capitalize. Now, COVID was different. I thought I nailed the bottom on March 18th. Well, I had to go to March 23rd. I missed it by three days, but those three days were hell. But I...

you know, the emotions and the, the way we look at things were a little different. And I blame Ackman for that, by the way, he went on CNBC at lunchtime and said, oh, hell is coming. And, uh, we caused a circuit breaker in the middle of the day, which then happened. Yep. Entire COVID, uh, conundrum until he went on TV and he was buying stock. Don't get me started. Um,

Yeah. So, yeah. And Phil Ackman is telling you the hell is coming by everything in sight because, you know, when there's fear, that's when you want to just step up. But know your risk. Don't put everything into one idea. Obviously, you want to diversify and leave powder for one day and let the worst thing that ever happens to you say, oh, I

I gave that one away or, Oh, I, I wish I bought more. You know, I wish I bought more of everything. I wish I bought more crypto when I started investing 50 bucks in it. Woo. Lucky me 50 bucks. But I just needed to learn by doing, um, that 50 bucks is like $500. Now, if I put real money into it, I'd be talking to you from the beach with a margarita in my hand right now. Not, uh, you know, here it works. So one of the, uh,

One of the great, I guess, advantages that you've had, not advantages, but privileges that you've had in your career is the ability to work with some real legends on the floor, you know, names that we all know. And obviously, Art Cashin recently passed. And I wonder if you have any great art stories, anything you'd like to say about art and anything you want to say? Yeah, Mr. Cashin.

Yeah, this is a sad time. This is around the holidays as we tape this. Mr. Cashin was a fixture down here with his Christmas poem, his New Year poem. And then, of course, Nelly, which will be sung on New Year's Eve for the first time without him in 50 plus years.

Mr. Cashin, I wrote a blog about it. He was not an astute trader. Don't be fooled that he was one of the best traders on the floor. He was a market historian. He knew things, and he could put them into perspective, relatable stories. No one told a story like Mr. Cashin how the market and behavior affected what we were seeing. And then he had a history, a deep sense of history, and he could put things in there.

perspective and he would sit there and talk to Bapizani, he would talk to people at the bar across the street who would listen. I never bothered Mr. Cashin. I had the utmost respect for him. I rose to a level of an official that he was for many years and he did come over and congratulate me.

me and that was one of my highlights, being a senior executive governor here, the red stripe, if you will, the highest elected position. That was something that the man had everyone's respect. There was no one that could have run for an office and won unanimously except for this gentleman. If he ran for president of the

No one would have voted against this guy. He was so beloved and respected. Um, and then his just recollection up until the end, uh, was unbelievable. So to be able to be at a bar and just listen to the stories and just take it in, um,

I was kind of fearful, like, you know, I don't belong in the company of this gentleman, but those that went up and talked to him, he was very gracious and he definitely will be missed in the holidays. Really, you know, drive that point home. So Arthur Cashin was a legend and we had a lot of legends and names that you wouldn't know that.

that walk these floors. And then you have names in the book that I signed in 1998 when I became a member of the New York Stock Exchange. You have J.P. Morgan and you have Carnegie's.

There is a lot of great history and to know that I'm in that. And then I got to ring the bell with the two of you and our organization back April 2023. I didn't realize how big of a deal that was. And when I got up there, I've seen and heard this thing 15,000 times. And that's not an exaggeration, maybe more. That was my first time up there. And to be there and to sign that book,

And to push that button with this great organization, that was one of the top highlights of my life. For all of our listeners, all of our listeners should know that never in the 15 years that I have known either you or Ralph Akinpura have either of you been speechless until that day.

April in 2023. It was pretty touching. April 27th, 2023. Momentous milestone. That was a great honor celebrating our 50th anniversary and hopefully for our 75th or 60th or 54th we'll do it again. But, you know, I

Asking to get that bell, as you know, Tyler, and if anyone thinks that that is an easy ask, it's not. That bell is sacred ground and they don't just give it to anybody. For them to give it to the organization, for you at the organization to give me the honor to ring it was epic. Loved it.

Hey, if we get another big biotech breakout, maybe you'll ring the 150th anniversary bell for the organization. You never know. Cause we all live that long. I mean, who knows what they're coming up with? Who knows that they're cooking up in those labs? Uh, Jay in, uh, in the spirit of time. And I know you got to get, uh, get back to it. Uh, what you see from the floor of the exchange and what you've observed over all of these, uh, booms and bust cycles, uh,

Now in your role at Freedom Capital Market, you're chief global strategist and you're covering much longer timeframes. Talk to us a little bit about the toolkit that you use now to help you stay on the right side of trends.

Yeah, well, first of all, when I now talk about the market, I channel Mr. Cashin and Ralph and the people that I really respected all these years. Tony Dwyer, another person that got on my ear when I made this change and a great friend of the CMT organization, does

doesn't have a CMT, by the way. He's retired. I think we can exempt Tony. But guys like that, Josh Brown, who is a big fan of a lot of people in this organization, these people were big influences in me. And I started writing, I started talking about the market more. And I really have a passion for it. I've

I'm a different person when I'm in this building. When I'm out of this building, I'm probably miserable. But for the most part- That's not true. That's not true. You're one of my favorite people to hang out with.

Not true at all. I can be fun. I can be fun. But no, to put it into perspective, when I talk about the market and when I'm now in a strategist role, so if you go to Freedom Capital Markets, let me give a little plug out, .com, you can subscribe to my weekly newsletter that comes out every Monday morning.

I hate my new weekly news. It's too much work. But-- ED HARRISON: It's awesome. DAVID ROSENBERG: --it's ChatGPT. Well, it's simple. And I like to do that. I like to do it on purpose. I can go deep in the weeds on economic data, which is not very CMT-friendly all the time. And we can talk about the PCE and the CPI and my thoughts on Powell. And I have a lot of thoughts on Powell. I've actually studied him over the last five years. I find him very fascinating.

You have to paint a story that's one relatable because if people are trading, they want to know what is my risk reward? What is it? Then they want to hear from somebody that's kind of they understand, oh, this guy's been there. This guy's in it. This guy can talk about some of my stories and experiences here at the stock exchange and see the bigger picture.

I've lived through bull and bear markets, and we're going to live through a few more. I love the bull market we're in right now. I think it's going to continue for at least another year. We shall see. But for me as a strategist, I will give three stocks you have to watch every week, just an overview of what I think investors need to focus on, and just give--

is very informative and a little bit of a roadmap of what to expect week to week if you're trading. And when I talk on TV, I can talk real smart. I can go on Bloomberg and be as smart as they are. But I also have to crack a joke and make sure that somebody's paying attention.

And I'm actually resonating with that person because I listen to a lot of these podcasts, people I like who are super smart. And I'm zoning out. Wait, what did that person just say? Now, now I got your attention. Yeah. You know, like I swam across the Hudson. Where did that come from? I don't know where these things come from. Yeah. But,

These are things that get people to stay focused and listen to what you're doing. But I study a lot. I love the markets. So I have been gifted that I remember numbers very well. I remember different trading situations. I remember the environments we lived through when we went through those situations. And history does have a tendency to repeat. It's not exact, but it rhymes. And to me,

we will see things that what we're living through right now. Everyone says it's the '90s. Guess what? It is like the '90s, and the parallels are unbelievable. Now, something can change and take that narrative, and the trend can change, and I have to change. I have to be adaptable. As technicians, we get that bad rap a lot. Well, you love the stock here. You're buying at all-time highs. Well,

punch up a chart of the S&P 500 from the beginning of time. And guess what? There are how many all-time highs? We had 57 of them this year. If I bought the first 27 of them, yay me. There will be new highs, and there will be ebbs and flows. But market timing is very difficult when you're a day trader, swing trader. It's the most important thing. We get anchored to that time. We

I try to take a big picture lens and then break it down into little pieces that make it relatable to an audience and then put some of my own perspective on the things that, you know, can keep you engaged a little bit. Because I don't want to talk over an audience with great data points that make me sound smart. It's not helping you out.

I think what I love about your Monday morning note is that there is some comprehensive nature to the fact that you're talking about where we're at in the cycle, liquidity tightening or easing. You look at some things on a relative basis, but you also haven't lost the classical pattern, the importance of classical pattern recognition and where important support and resistance are on those three stocks that you go through each time. And I feel like the...

Maybe the biggest misconception of technical analysis is that there is one great indicator that's going to solve it all, or there's one piece of the puzzle that you could use to always stay on the right side. And I think the combination of multiple different factors, and you look at sentiment, you look at seasonality, you look at a lot of different pieces that help bring together kind of a mosaic in that weekly note. It's a great read. I recommend everybody listening to this, go check that out.

But you didn't always use all those tools, right? When you were a market maker, it was...

much more narrow set. I use my gut. Yeah. But to put it back to technical analysis and how you look at things and how anyone listening to this, it's an if this, then that scenario. I can't predict what the news will cause a stock to do. But if price does follow in a certain way, that tells me more than what the news does. We've had stocks have great earnings. My favorite

The story is, Nvidia's earnings, August 24, 2023. Yes, I remember these things. And the stock was gapping after hours, the best quarter ever. Jensen is the god of all gods. And then it gapped. Instead of up 40, it only gapped up 20. And where it opened was the high of the day, and it closed up a dime.

Okay, whoa, wait a second. I know your earnings were fantastic. Price Action told me that was a key reversal day. We're going to go lower from here or we're going to chop. So Price tells me the story. The news is always the catalyst. Don't get me wrong. News trumps politics.

all when it comes to the moves, but how they continue, how I want to watch a stock move, that is all price action. So to the process, to your point, Tyler, keep it simple.

don't get too complex. When you're trying to figure out a third or fourth indicator to justify why you liked an idea, now you're just, you know, you're like one of the younger kids that would come to me, hey, I just got long 20,000 shares of this stock. What do you think of the chart? Well, you want me to say it's bullish because you just got long 20,000 shares of it. Why didn't you bring me the chart and tell me what was going on before you did that? So,

You have to think of all the scenarios you get in, where the risk reward is set up. Keep it as simple as possible. Yes, use other indicators to justify your story, but don't use one as the holy grail because we all know if there was one indicator, if there's one holy grail, you wouldn't study for three exams. You'd study two pages of what that holy grail was, and we'd all be CMTs and retired right now. It doesn't work that way.

And indicators change too. Sometimes some work for a nice stretch of time and then all of a sudden, Anchor and VWAP can go out the window in two years if we try to find something new when people start to trade. Well, we're not worried about the volume rate and average price right now. We're worried about the AI-related index that is moving these stocks. So who knows? But

To quote Mr. Cash, be nimble. Always be ready to change and change your thesis. And yes, I could be bullish one day and say, OK, the market went down 200. But yeah, now I missed that. But the whole point is get the meat of the trade. I am not going to catch every low. I'm not going to catch every high. If I catch any of them, I'm very happy. But what I want to do is guide people to understand that this scenario is very favorable.

favorable over a long period of time. Once you buy, it's your trade. What is your goal? What is your intention right now? And if the stock went up 20% in two weeks, take a little off the table. These are not normal moves. And be thankful. But yeah, it's if this happens, then that. And make it as relatable as possible. And try not to overthink these things too much. Because then you're

You're in your own head. If you're in my head, it's a very bad place to be. You don't want to cloud it up too much. Just keep it simple. Jay, you had mentioned that you think that we're very much still in a bull market and you think it's going to continue. And I'm curious-

That's obviously a very contrarian view, perhaps not in the technical community, but certainly in the broader community amongst strategists and amongst people who just worry about deficits and trade tariffs and inflation and crazy presidents and all these other things that everybody's worried about. In your simplified book and the things that you look at to help keep things simple for you, what makes you so bullish?

I mean, one, the overall trends in the rotation that we've seen in this market has been, and this is a Ralph quote, rotation's a lifeblood of a bull market. We continue to see it. Even in this December pullback that we experienced,

We rotated. We went to seven stocks again, but we rotated actually six because Nvidia did not join the party. But that, to me, is healthy. That's the leadership you want, by the way, technology. This is fantastic. So I know the breadth numbers were horrible. I know there was a head and shoulders top in Nvidia. And I said something on one of the networks saying, I would not be buying this unless it gets back above the neckline here. 132 was the number. And I think it

as we take this safely back above that. So maybe the crisis was averted, but the setup wasn't ideal. But the breadth numbers were

pretty negative, yet the market was less than 2% in the S&P 500, away from all-time highs. That doesn't happen very often. Rotation was still continuing. So what did we have? We had an oversold condition in the broader indices. We had, I think, it got to almost 90% of the stocks in the S&P 500. I believe it was 84% to 85%. I don't know if we hit 90% on the flush out on that

Friday morning where we turned things around, where the 10-day moving average, we had 90% of the stocks in the S&P under that. That is an extreme situation that should see a reversal. Now, the question is, when we bounce back, do we make new highs? That's what I look at to see these trends continue. We can go sideways for a long period of time. And I say this, and I don't know where I got the line, and people attribute it to me,

And thank you if you do. But sideways is a direction. Neutral is a trend. And we have had some sideways moves. We had it in NVIDIA the second half of last year, the second half of this year. And then it led us. So it wouldn't shut down.

happy to see that stock. Apple, biggest stock in the world, making new highs. Microsoft right there. Google, Amazon. These are the names I want to see lead. I think we'll get more participation. I love the financial sector. The financials, I know rates are not going down as quickly as they had hoped. Maybe they'll stabilize for a little while. But conditions for M&A has never been better. Conditions for IT

is fantastic. Hello, two years of new highs. And now you have an administration that is very friendly to letting these things happen. So the sectors that I like continue to be financials. I think the regional banks have a nice catch-up trade there. There are some great rounded bottoms with breakouts. That's my favorite pattern. We saw it in the S&P 500.

You go back in time, 2022, everyone remembers it was a bear market. 2023, we had a great year, but all we did was recoup 2022. It was a perfect two-year saucer bottom with a breakout. NVIDIA had that same pattern, broke out three to six months before the S&P 500, then the S&P 500 followed, then the individual stocks followed. Now you look at the patterns evolving within the sectors,

regional banks, financials, same different things. Biotech tried, it didn't do it, but I saw it with the IGB. But now we look at technology, it's not semi. Semis are scaring me a little bit right now, but technology is still doing well when you have the software of the IGB breaking out. You have cyber, the hack in the CIBR ETFs breaking out, continuing these leg hires. So there are bull markets. It's just not a bull market where

You're getting that rally. And guess what? If we do, I'll probably start to get a little bearish because, wait a second, it's getting euphoric. That's when bull markets end. They end during euphoria. They don't end because we had a few bad weeks and Brett got a little scary and Jay Powell said this and Donald Trump said that. No, you see it play out.

We're getting a little bubblicious, as I like to say, with the crypto stocks. But I still think technically crypto can go a little higher than this. 125, 130 if you use Fibonacci extension levels, which I will use in crypto because there's no high to compare it to. So when I'm looking at stocks at all-time highs, I'll add that indicator in there.

And then other sectors will just see rotation. Utilities on a long-term basis, my God, these are not your grandparents' utilities anymore. There's a story behind it. It's technology. It's nuclear. And a lot of these companies

Companies, they pulled back, they flagged, as we like to say in technical terms, and they're back to interesting levels where I would like to put more money to work and buy these names that have dipped a little bit because the story is there. The technicals are there. So if I can blend the fundamental story and see the technical setups,

To me, that is exactly what you want to see to feel confident that I can go on TV, I can talk to an audience and say, this is what I like, why I like it, and this is the risk involved. If it doesn't continue on this path, then something's changed and I want to get out. So that's a little peek as to what I think as far as the next year goes. But there's going to be volatile headlines. I don't know how much that will translate into

the stock market. 2017 was Trump's-- we had this before. 2017 was the least volatile year I can recall. We didn't have 1%, 2% drawdown. We had a 3% drawdown in the S&P 500 last week. And every month, we were slow and steady. We were higher. But if you talked about the headlines and the tweets, it was chaos. Now, the thing that scares me from a fundamental point of view

is what impact will these tariffs have? That should be on everybody's mind because we saw what happened in 2018 when he started putting them into use and started really typing up the rhetoric. We had a 10% drawdown. But as you know, as technicians, that happens on average once a year. 3%, 5% corrections happen on average once a year. I suspect we will have a 10% correction at least in 2025.

But I think the overall trend will remain higher. I like the setups as we kick off the year. So I think the first quarter is going to be great. Second quarter, a little muddier. And then let's revisit this where we go quarter three, quarter four based on Fed policy, based on what's going on in the world. But.

Right now, technically, over the more intermediate long term, I think this bull has more legs to it. And I think, if anything, we will get a euphoric phase with people on that FOMO. We missed out on this. Here's a new AI IPO. Here's a nuclear IPO. Because these things are coming. And it's going to cause a lot of people to want to get into this market. Yeah, I agree with that. I think that's

I think maybe the big asset class that you touched on, that was probably going to be a big factor for next year because it touches on so much of what you talked about is rates. So do you have a view on the 10-year? I mean, what do you need? Do you need to see the 10-year to do anything in order to sustain the bull market? Or is it more about as long as it doesn't do something bad like XYZ, we're good?

Yeah, the 10-year is very scary. Think about where it was before we started cutting rates. We've cut rates 100 basis points, and all it does is continue to tick higher. You look at it technically, my god, it broke the longest downtrend I've ever seen. The trend has changed. Rates are higher for longer. That is the new normal. Guess what? I'm old enough to remember when it was the normal back in the day. What I think is going to happen is the market has been able to digest this.

The fact that the S&P 500 is still around 6,000 with the 10-year creeping back up towards 5, that tells me that that connection isn't as obvious as we once saw it. And the market can digest these rates at these levels because historically-

It's not that high. But when you have a recency bias of the generation that's just coming out looking to buy that first home for mortgage rates upwards of 7% now, yeah, I live that. I remember. I know it well. This will be your new normal. What was your first mortgage rate, Jay? Get used to it. 6.75%, 1997. Yeah. That's Hoboken, New Jersey.

Six and three quarters. And I was on top of the world. What about you? Mine was 11 and a half. Woo, you're old. Yes, I can... My parents bought their first home the year that I was born, October of 1981. And I think it was over 14%. Yeah. Yeah, wow. Yeah. So this is a blessing. And...

The disconnect, though, here's the disconnect, is the prices have not come down. The housing market has remained very resilient and continues to climb. So for me, that's a little concerning, especially because I have one that I want to get out of the house and buy or eventually be able to afford housing. He hasn't been able to do that. And these 30-year-olds, it's a little more challenging than it was for us because the

the prices were cheaper, to be fair, even though the rates were a lot higher at the time. Now I want to see if that housing market can come. I haven't seen anything saying it's going to anytime soon, that's for sure. Jed, we hosted an event with Bloomberg in late November, and Marianne Bartels was one of our panelists who spent a healthy portion of her career as a TMT analyst. And she explained to the audience about the

or the work through where it starts with semiconductors and you see a tremendous uptake in semiconductor stocks that then gives way to the software that is a new development upon the new technology built into the hardware.

Do you see this rotation already happening? Do you think the story's over for semis? And is it software from here on out? Or do you think there's still another leg for the semiconductors?

No, I don't think the story is over by any stretch because AI and the AI story is still picking up steam. And to me, it's now you have to be more selective. And I know it was just stock pickers market, the worst thing we should all say. But within the index, you see stocks that have and stocks that do not. And hopefully it's those leaders that make up the majority of the index that they continue to chug along and we'll see.

the index pick its head up. But no, it's had a tremendous run. It doesn't surprise me that it's pulled back a little bit. But I don't think the semi story is far from over. I just think that it's-- I think the 2025 story is going to be this, Tyler and Dave. We focus so much on CapEx and how much these companies are spending to build the infrastructure

infrastructure for AI. Well, now we're going to see that infrastructure go to work. Apple, slowly, slowly, methodically upgrading, rolling out AI implementations that will be in our phone. And I will be able to check email without implementing AI to structure it a certain way. My notes are going to be better. People will be using this seamlessly. And that's what Apple does. And Apple will be one of the leaders. Who's their chip?

make a broadcom. Okay, broadcom, through the roof. So Salesforce.com, that's in the software space. What did they unveil? AgentForce. What is AgentForce? It's their use of AI, which they did a heavy spend in, a couple acquisitions, and it's their customer service. And that was why the stock popped on earnings, because not only are they implementing it, they're hiring 2,000 more people. So I'm giving you fundamentals on a technical show I

I apologize. No, it's great. It's great. But it's justifying the technical. You've got to blend them both. I'm justifying why this is a big deal. And then those people that say AI is going to end every job in the world, it's going to end some industries. I feel bad for some of the reporters here who can just, you know, you can just go to chat GPT and come up with a story.

But it's creating jobs because you have to learn how to program it. You have to learn how to make it do what you want it to do. There are going to be classes upon classes that teach you just how to program this AI from chat GPT to perplexity to whatever the source happens to be. So I think there's a new ecosystem there. Mm-hmm.

And there will be winners and losers. But overall, I think the trend is there for the semis. The trend is there for cyber. The trend is there for software. But there will be some misses as well. Look at what Intel's done. My God, they couldn't join the party. Take that. Good riddance to them. But it's going to have to be very selective. And those stocks that have been inconsistent uptrends, why are they inconsistent uptrends? Because the fundamentals kind of justify it as well.

Well said. Well said. So for all of our listeners out there who are waiting with bated breath for their results on their CMT exams, you've been through the process, Jay. And for folks who are just aspiring young technicians, any closing thoughts on where they ought to start, right, in terms of learning these tools and how to take a technical approach to investing?

Yeah, first and foremost, learn by doing. If you're not able to buy a stock, write down your idea and track it. See how you're doing. And then if you're using a technical indicator, what did I see here? That's the only way to learn. And once you have skin in the game, you see things very differently.

always use my example of my son when he was 14 and owned a share of Tesla and then noticed every Tesla driving down the street and watched the stock price and was giving me updates as it went up and then crying when it was going down. Once you invest in something and you put those skill sets to work, it's going to come easier. So for those studying for the CMT,

try to use the process as your guide and see what works for you. What doesn't, uh, one knock on the CMT takes forever to get those test results back. So I feel your pain. You're sitting there waiting for those, but we're methodical. Maybe I will fix this Tyler. We'll talk offline, but, um, no, um,

anyone, I think there are many processes that you will learn when you go through the curriculum. You have to find the one that works for you. The one that's comfortable for your process, know your risk restraints. Cause some people may put stop losses in down 5% and be like, Oh, I got out. And then I got stopped out too soon. Um,

You have to just know what you can tolerate from a risk point of view, what system you create works best for you. And the CMT gives you so many different options. And to me, there's no better curriculum in the world if you're looking to trade, looking to learn about what the technicians are talking about and what to follow in the market.

You know, a quick shout out again to Optima, who built the whole infrastructure for our paper trading investment challenge. That'll kick off again February 1st. We work with all of our academic partners, universities, all of those students, as well as all of the candidates in the program. And yes, even old timers like me, you know, it was a helpful experience to trade some not real money while you're learning.

Jay, as always, it is such a pleasure to see you recording this on December 20th. I just want to wish you and your family a very happy holidays. And thanks so much for carving out time to look at the year ahead with Dave and I and kick off season five of Fill the Gap, the official podcast of CMT Association. It's an honor to be here and join you guys. Happy New Year, everybody. Merry Christmas, Jay. Thanks so much, Jay.

Here at CMT Association, 2025 is a landmark year. For the first time ever, the official CMT program curriculum will be included with exam registration. That means if you register for an exam, the corresponding study materials are immediately made available. The CMT curriculum was specifically crafted to give candidates the skills needed to gain an edge in an intensely competitive industry.

Written by professional technical analysts and the best minds in the financial industry, it's the most incredible collection of expert analysis techniques you'll find anywhere. Another exciting development is the learning management system where the curriculum is being hosted. That's right, the CMT curriculum has gone digital, so you can study anytime, anywhere.

Home, work, your mobile device, while you're binging every season of The Office, or when your kids make you watch the latest video they found on social media. Registration for the June 2025 exam cycle opens January 15th at the early registration price. And with the curriculum now included in your registration, the CMT program is more accessible and inexpensive than it's ever been. Head over to cmtassociation.org to learn more today. ♪

Fill the Gap is brought to you with support from Optima. In addition to candidate study of the official CMT curriculum, Optima provides a full video course on all of the material that candidates need to know for each level of the CMT exams. Each course is broken up into modules ranging from 15 to 45 minutes, depending on the complexity and length of the topics being covered. Learn more at Optima.com. ♪