How Ukraine can survive in the world today - with Dmytro Kuleba
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How can Ukraine adapt to the new world that has emerged? Has America ceased to be its key partner? Is Europe ready to step in and what does it have to do? Where else can Ukraine find its friends? You are listening to the Explain Ukraine podcast.

Explaining Ukraine is a podcast by Ukraine World, a multilingual media outlet focused on Ukraine. My name is Volodymyr Yermolenko. I am a Ukrainian philosopher, the chief editor of Ukraine World and the president of Pan-Ukraine. Our guest today is Dmytro Kuleba, a prominent Ukrainian diplomat and intellectual who served as Ukraine's foreign minister from 2020 to 2024.

Ukraine World is run by Internet Ukraine, one of Ukraine's largest media NGOs. You can support our work at patreon.com/ukraineworld. Your support is crucial as our media increasingly relies on crowdfunding. You can also support our volunteer trips to the frontline areas where we provide assistance to both soldiers and civilians, mainly by bringing cars for soldiers and books for civilians.

You can support our trips via paypal at ukraine.resistinggmail.com You will find these links in the description of this episode. So let's begin. Dmytro Kuleba, welcome to this podcast. It's a pleasure to finally be here. What kind of the world we are living today? Well, there was a long conversation about the changing world. I think we have good reasons to say that we finally live in a changed world.

It doesn't have to be present continuous anymore. It can be past simple. So America is completely different from the one we knew. It began to believe that the best way to lead the world is to retreat from the battles for this world. We see that today

the United States are closer to Russia, to countries like Russia and China at the level of values than to the countries like Ukraine and the rest of Europe. But having said all this, I do think that interests of these main actors of Russia, China and the United States are still different. And this world is not getting any safer.

Do you think that America is gone when we're talking about Ukraine and Ukraine allies? Yes, I think America, even if America comes back, it will not return neither to Ukraine nor to Europe in the extent that it had been present here before it decided to walk away.

So the change that you see in America right now, do you think it's ideological? Do you think it's very profound? It's not tactical? Purely, purely ideological. The first presidency of Trump was seen as essentially like an incident. And the strategy was just to outseat him, outlive him.

But what we all missed in America is the understanding of the social base that brought Trump to power. And today we see that these people only got stronger over the last years. They exist in a completely different bubbles. I watched an interesting video.

interesting videos recently where two guys, they're like comics, they interview, but they pretend they're journalists and they interview the Trump base, Trump supporters. And these people, many of them say, I do not read fake mainstream media. I read or I do not, I watch media that I trust.

So we essentially ended up in two bubbles of people who believe that what they read and watch within their bubble is truth. And there is no dialogue between them. So the social base exists. Trump is back with a landslide victory. He himself, his supporters, they are in a state of euphoria.

But most importantly, unless there is like a black swan effect or something really bad happening in America, I believe that the next administration will also be Republican and the person who will come after Trump will succeed his policies as well. So which brings us to the conclusion, if my assessment is correct, that the strategy of out-seating Trump is possible.

is a bad strategy and that everything we see is not an incident it's a sustainable development and therefore uh america is not coming back can ukraine survive without america it has to it has to and i believe it has decent chances to do so but strategy needs to change europe must change so we all if america changed then basically we

the peoples who counted on America must change as well. And that is the key to survival. Our only allies are Europeans or you see other allies as well? Europeans in a broader sense. So EU plus Britain, Norway, Turkey as well. And players who do not want to see an overly strong Russia.

which is also a factor in the game. But yeah, today we can only count on ourselves and the Europeans. We always have many questions to our European friends, but now they finally seem to have realized that they are physically threatened as well. It's not only about Ukraine.

China can be an ally? Yes. Today more than ever. Because China sees this everything that is happening through the prism of realizing its biggest dream which was always to break up America's alliances. Now that

America, actually I must say that the idiom to behave like a bull in a China shop finally becomes literal. It really makes sense because America is the bull who is constrained by the walls of the China shop. Look, that means that values are gone. We are only thinking about security because

Well, China is organized in a completely different way than Ukraine. Ukraine is bottom-up, anarchic, China is top-down, paternalistic, collectivist. Yeah, but it's an issue of survival now. The luxury of values. Values were always a luxury in decision-making. And values are fundamental. They stand at the core of everything.

But there are moments in life of a human being and nation when you have to face a choice between values and survival. And both people and nations make different choices, unfortunately. And this is why we have so many great books and movies and plays because they are...

elaborate on a person or a nation at the moment of choice. But listen, I'm not saying that all of this is predetermined. What I'm trying to say is that Europe today feels more force coming towards China than it was two months ago.

What about Europe? So there are good declarations. There are very powerful declarations by Macron. There are good declarations by Merz. There are some good declarations from Italians, from the Nordic countries. But everybody else says that, look, Europe is technically not prepared. It doesn't have enough industry, doesn't have rules which are OK for Europe.

for military economy. We have recently published a podcast with Niko Popescu. I know that you know him very well as well. That was also his argument. What do you think? Europe until recently was making all the right statements. This week they made, last week they made right decisions.

The question is how quickly and to what extent they can be implemented. Europe has a mixed record on that, right? We know that sometimes they found the strength to act in a very proactive and resolved way. And by the way, one of those episodes was exactly when the United States

had retreated from the battlefield to discuss the supplemental in the Congress. Europe was not waiting for the US back then. They were making decisions which were important to help Ukraine out under those circumstances. I would disagree that Europe does not have the base, the industrial base. It does. It has issues with large scaling, but

Even if they started spending money now on the production in Europe, that would already be a huge help to Ukraine, while on a parallel track they would be expanding their production facilities and building new factories. There are some cases like Rheinmetall, who has built new factories in Germany, like the partnership between

Leonardo in Italy and the same Rheinmetall in Germany to produce tanks like the partnership between French Nexta and I always forget the name of the second largest German producer of weapons. So the problem that Europe is facing is time.

And again, time and defining the mechanisms or the ways through which money should flow. Because now even after the European Council adopted the right decision on allowing member states to take loans and to increase their income,

expenditures on, spendings on defense industry, we heard that Germany and France are discussing how to proceed with the implementation. And the problem is that there is no time to discuss. They must be doing these things now. But at the end of the day, you know, who else can we count on? No one. So we better support Europeans, urge Europeans, push Europeans because to see them do the right things because otherwise

we will be literally be left alone. So do you think that now the geopolitical scene of Ukraine is now narrowing, narrows down? Because I remember 22, 23, we're talking about global south. We are talking about the whole world. Now America is gone, you say. Europe is the only partner?

Well, as you and I speak, the president is in Saudi Arabia and talks between Ukraine and the United States and Russia and the United States are going to take place in Saudi Arabia. President of South Africa extended the invitation to President Zelensky to pay state visit to this country. So, no, global south is not gone because both of these countries belong to it.

What changed is that today all focus will be and all resources will be focused on those countries who potentially can make a difference. In a nutshell, to make it very simple, it will matter far less how many countries of the global south will vote for a UN resolution. What will matter is what can be a practical example

input of a specific country of the global south in negotiations or in counterbalancing Russia's influence. Imagine that, for example, Ukraine accepts some of the American deal, some of the American pressure, you know, Trump's pressure.

What do you think will happen next? Because I have the feeling that Americans put some demands, then they put other demands, then they put more and more and more. Now the talk is that Zelensky should go, etc. At which moment Ukraine will say no and what will happen afterwards? Well, but it's up to our negotiators to decide when that moment comes or when it doesn't.

I have a feeling that Ukrainian society is ready to accept a pause on literally almost any terms. But the problem is that it will only be a pause. And what people mistakenly take for the end of the war will be a pause. So basically, the worse the deal will be, the higher will be the chances that

that it will not be a deal on ending the war. It will be a deal starting the new war. That's where we are. But I don't think people get that far in that assessment. How realistic do you think that Russia is going to go and attack other countries? Like, for example, European continent, Baltic states, Finland, Poland? 100%.

Putin will fight wars until his last breath. This can be wars of different scales and types, but it is going to happen. He cannot live in peace anymore. This is because he finds it very convenient. Especially if he gets a decent result for himself in Ukraine, this will only motivate him to do more.

But wars do not necessarily have to start with thousands of troops crossing the border and tanks entering peaceful cities. It has become apparent that the war has changed dramatically. What if unidentified long-range drones hit energy facilities or ammunition depots in France, Germany, any other country of Europe? It does not even necessarily have to be Baltics.

or Poland. And Russia says, it's not us, we didn't do it. But national governments of these countries will have to make decisions, they will have to respond. There will be a lot of open source intelligence of where these drones came from. There will be a lot of speculation on the media, on the social media, in favor and against attributing these drones to Russia. But that's it, basically. And Russia will...

effectively attack another country by doing so. The question is not whether Russia is going to attack. The question is how the attacked nations will respond single-handedly or collectively. Do you think that this attack will happen only after Ukraine falls? Or do you think that it is precisely when Russia is stuck in Ukraine it will try another, like say, battle scenes?

which are easier, which are less protected? Well, if Ukraine falls, the chance for attack is 100%. If Ukraine, the longer Ukraine holds, the lower the chances of an attack become. Because the busier he is here and the more of his army is decimated here, the less likely it will be for him to...

to attack someone else. But again, he finds the war mode very convenient for his rule. So he will stick to it. What if we imagine a situation, for example, that Ukrainians continue to fight, some Europeans help, but then inside are the Europeans that are troubles. Like, AfD really comes to power in Germany, Rassemblement National comes to power in France, etc.

And we still say we still have Europeans who are, you know, for Ukraine, Nordic countries, Baltics, probably Poland, some others. But the number is less and less. What will happen in this situation? It will be a pure math exercise. So it will be not about solidarity or ideology. It will be pure math. Does this number of countries who stand by me suffice for me to continue fighting?

Do they send me enough of weapons? Do they offer me enough of financial assistance? It will not be about the numbers. So the phase of the war when numbers mattered, where it really was important to push the narrative that the whole world is on my side, are gone. So today it's very practical.

What can you give me to help me hold on? It's like in this old anecdote about Stalin when he was told about the importance of talking to the Pope and taking into account his opinion. And Stalin allegedly responded by asking, how many divisions does the Pope have? We are exactly in this momentum right now.

What is the key support from the Europeans? Is it money? Is it helping the Ukrainian industrial military production? Is it boots on the ground? Is it airplanes? What is it? No, it's macrofinancial money for the budget and money for the weapons. That's it. There is a third element, which is intelligence sharing. But unfortunately, it will take Europe time to build it.

intelligence capabilities which would at least get closer to the US intelligence capabilities. What about boots on the ground? Is it realistic? We can entertain. Well, boots on the ground to do what? Boots on the ground to be present on the ground in Ukraine, yes, they can do it. Are these boots capable of stopping the war or stopping Russia from resuming the war? No, they will not be capable of doing it.

Will Russia accept Europe's boots on the ground? No, because their goal is to destroy Ukraine and they do not need any boots, Ukrainian or foreign boots on the ground here. So I understand that this whole conversation is about boots on the ground is very inspiring and keeps people in people kind of people's hopes up, mood up. But

I mean, we have to be, the moment has come when we have to be very realistic and sober about what we have at the table and what we don't. What we may have on the table and what we may not have on the table. Because the decisions that are being made today, they cannot be, the price of every mistake will be much higher than it was like in the last three years.

So we have to be very sober about the real capabilities available to us and real decisions which are being made by our partners or not. What about technology? So Europeans on the one hand they are superior than the Russians in technology, on the other hand

Well, they are behind the digital era, the digital technology, for example, behind the Americans and behind the Chinese. Can they help us? No, I don't think this is the biggest technological advance of the United States and China is not the biggest issue, I think. The biggest issue today Europe is facing is large-scaling production.

This is it. So today Europe has Leclerc as main battle tank, Leopard as main battle tank and there is a new Panther tank that they are beginning to produce. They have thousands of types of armored vehicles.

And many other technologies. The problem with Europe is not the technology. The technology is there. The problem is that at least in 2022, we realized that this state-of-the-art weapons in Europe, they exist only in quantities sufficient for...

participation, for participating in arm fairs taking place simultaneously in different parts of the world. But this is not combat capability. So Irish tea started as an artisanal production, let's put it this way. Now it took them years to turn it into industrial production, but still insufficient.

So, and the same goes with everything else, with tanks, with planes. It just takes too much time to produce these beautiful pieces of technology. And this is the problem that Europe has to solve. But on other tracks, I think everything is more can be fixed. Three problems that Europe cannot fix in within, cannot help Ukraine with in short-term perspective.

Patriot interceptors, intelligence and spare parts and maintenance of American equipment in Ukraine. This cannot be solved without the Americans. Everything else can be solved by Europeans, but they need to rush. What about psychology? I have the impression when I talk to Europeans that the problem is psychology. First, they do not. They're still in denial that this is a war against Europe. And secondly, they do not really believe in Europe.

What is your impressions when you talk with politicians? Well, I have a feeling that elites, European elites, realize that Russia poses a physical threat to them. They realized after Jay Devan's speech in Munich that America is gone. But the perception in the public opinion is more nuanced. And I think that there are still very many people

who need to be, let's call them voters, right? Because it makes sense here. So very many, like abundance of voters who need to be convinced that money, that it makes more sense to spend taxpayers' money on weapons and not schools and roads, that Russia is a real threat. So Europe will be constrained

Until the moment when to win elections in Europe, you will have to make the defense of Europe as one of your main campaign slogans. Until it does not happen, politicians will care how to win and therefore they will not be able to take the decisions they must take.

Overall, the choice that Europeans and our European leaders are facing now is whether to be statesmen or politicians, whether to care for Europe, for the countries in Europe, or to care for winning the next elections. This is the choice that they have to make. What about maybe let's talk about Ukraine the last five minutes. What about Ukrainian resilience? Do you see that it is still strong or do you see it weakening? No, I think that Ukrainians have done a remarkable job

in defending their country. And with all my respect to other nations in Europe, I do not really see who else would be able to achieve what we did under these circumstances, right? But of course, we are exhausted, we are tired. And I do think that Ukrainians today...

The majority of Ukrainians today, they just want this nightmare to stop. But it does not mean that they are ready to give up. We just need a pause. It's like if you run a marathon, right? And at a certain point, you feel so exhausted that you tell to yourself, like, okay, I'm not going to make it first.

but I need to make a pause to take a breath, to sip water and just finish the marathon. Okay, the price is not... I'm not getting there first, but I will still do it. I just need a pause. So this is more or less the feeling. I'm still going to make it. I just need a pause. So this is...

how I more or less understand the current state of resilience in Ukraine. What are the concessions we're ready to make? I never answered this question to any foreign journalist and I will not do it with you because it's not for us to dwell on this.

we Ukrainians should not compromise our own position by dwelling publicly on the concessions we have to make. We should always try to turn the question and make our partners focus on what concessions Russia should make. What are the concessions that Russia should make? Because our demands are very high level.

Russia should stop the war, give away territories, go to the justice tribunals. All this seems to be very far away. Justice, you know, they say that truth is the first victim of war. And I can tell you that justice is the first victim of peace. Everything related to justice will be considered first.

in the peace talks. So we have to be very clear about it. You mean that all this... Everything. Your sense of justice, someone else's sense of what's just and what isn't, tribunals, prosecution, all of this will be... It's like when you have budget, when you have to cut your budget, the first thing you send down the drain is culture.

Right. In the war, it's the same with justice. The first thing that will be sent down the negotiating train will be justice. For many reasons, but it will take us too much time to discuss them. Last question. What gives you hope? God, family, and my very selfish wish to keep living here in Ukraine.

After you served for so many years as a foreign minister and before as ambassador, what changes have you considered in yourself? Have you become more sober, realistic, cynical, hopeful, pessimistic? Hopeful. Interesting. Yeah, because the more you live, the more you learn that in the end...

hope is the strongest feeling that makes you keep going. Metro Collab, thank you so much for this conversation. Thank you.

This was a podcast explaining Ukraine by Ukraine World, a multilingual media outlet about Ukraine. My name is Volodymyr Yelmolonko. I am a Ukrainian philosopher, the chief editor of Ukraine World and the president of PEN Ukraine. My guest today was Dmytro Kuleba, a prominent Ukrainian diplomat and intellectual who served as Ukraine's foreign minister from 2020 to 2024.

You can support our work at patreon.com/UkraineWorld. Your support is crucial as our media increasingly relies on crowdfunding. You can also support our volunteer trips to the frontline areas where we provide assistance to both soldiers and civilians, mainly by bringing cars for soldiers and books for civilians. You can support our trips via PayPal at Ukraine.Resisting. Gmail.com. Stay with us and stand with Ukraine.