Ukraine in 2024: An Overview - with Tetyana Ogarkova
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What have we learned from the year 2024 in Ukraine? What have been the key trends on the frontline? What does Ukraine need to defend its sovereignty? What are Russia's goals in this war? And what are the keys to achieving sustainable peace? You're listening to the Explain Ukraine podcast.

Explaining Ukraine is a podcast by Ukraine World, a multilingual media about Ukraine. My name is Volodymyr Yermolnikov, I'm a Ukrainian philosopher, chief editor of Ukraine World and president of PEN Ukraine. My guest today is Tatiana Harkova, Ukrainian intellectual, literary scholar and journalist, the head of international outreach department at Ukraine Crisis Media Center, lecturer at Kiv Mahila Academy and author of the podcast in French, L'Ukraine face la guerre.

Tetyana is also my wife and mother of our three children. Together we regularly travel to the war zones to bring assistance to Ukrainian soldiers and civilians and to report from the frontline. Here is our personal conclusions from this year.

Before we start, let me remind you that Ukraine World is produced by Internews Ukraine, one of the country's largest media NGOs. You can support our work at patreon.com/ukraineworld. We offer exclusive content for our patrons. You can also support our volunteer trips to the front lines at paypal.ukraine.resistinggmail.com. You can find these links in the description of this episode. Tatiana, so let's indeed reflect upon this year, the year

has been of course difficult for us and the war continues so russians are advancing although probably not that much that they would like to be to be advancing and they shell ukrainian cities including our city of kiev and its suburbs every night every day what are your personal conclusions from this year

Well, it's hard to be pessimistic during the Christmas time. But yes, this year was extremely difficult for Ukraine. We always have this habit to talk about each year being the most difficult year during this war. But now, indeed, we already entered this phase of the war when this war seems to be endless.

So there is no direct military solution for what's going on on the front lines. As you mentioned, we travel a lot to the front lines. We speak to Ukrainian soldiers, officers. We see in our own eyes what's going on on the front lines. And unfortunately, there is no secret for nobody now that Ukrainian army has some problems to face Russian forces.

in the east and also in the south. Today we are speaking about, for example, Russians trying to cross Dnipro River in Kherson region. We are talking about this town called Pokrovsk. We are talking a lot about Kurohovo. By the way, we've been there with you, close, some 50 kilometers from Kurohovo region.

Russians invented a bunch of methods how to advance even if they don't use tanks or heavy artillery, they are using infantry but they are still taking more and more territories even if the risk of their advance is not spectacular a lot. So let's also bring some context to our audience.

If we speak about the pure results of this year, 2024, we would say that only two cities, two towns were taken by Russians. It's Avdiivka and it's Vuhlydar. And we have this experience of being present in the village Vuhlydar

called Veliki Komar, no, Mali Komar, right? In this specific place where Ukrainian counter-offensive took place back in summer 2023. And now, unfortunately, this village is already occupied. But it is 10 kilometers from the previous front line. So Russians advanced some distance

10 kilometers, maybe 15 kilometers in each position. So it makes a lot. In fact, it makes a lot in terms of surface, but it's not a lot in every particular moment. The problem is that Ukrainian troops seem not to have a solution to how to stop Russians. So

Speaking about dynamics of this war, Russians are still attacking and Ukrainians still try to find a way to defend and to stop this advance. And the solution is not found. We are pretty far from that.

And that's why there is this context of anxiety in the Ukrainian society and even military as well. There are a lot of problems. We'll maybe talk about them later. But primarily, what is really urgent is to find the solution to stop Russians in their advance on the front lines. Yes, indeed. And I agree with you that we should not exaggerate these advances because...

Well, we have been in this village. We have been there one year ago, in January or February 2024. And now, yes, we can say that probably Ukrainians have lost it already. The village that is near this village, Vilykino-Vasilky, is completely destroyed during the previous phases of this war. But it's indeed a very, very tiny, tiny part. If you look at

At Ukrainian territory, and especially on the Russian territory, compared to the square kilometers that both countries have, not only Russians, but also Ukrainians, it really seems very, very tiny. Russians haven't taken any big regional city in 2024. They haven't taken any big regional city like the regional center even in 2023.

Still, since the start of this full-scale invasion, during the three years, they have taken only one big regional city and they have lost it. And this is the city of Kherson. And thinking about this, three years of this full-scale invasion, just let's remember how the Second World War was developing, you know, and with huge dynamics of millions of people going one way or another.

And this is, of course, very, very different from that. And we also need to understand that. So Russian army is powerful because it has lots of people and Russian economy is really militarized and it's producing lots of things for the front line, but it's not invincible. It's obvious that it's not invincible.

Another important novelty during this year is that Russians introduced North Korean soldiers in Kursk regions. So this is completely new, right? Because back in 2022, we had all these Russian troops, elite troops in Ukraine close to Kiev, for example, in Kherson region.

everywhere. But now, even if we know that Putin pays a lot, by the way, this is not about general mobilization in Russia. They establish contracts with people willing to combat. So, and now there could be a kind of shortage of Russian soldiers, of people willing to sign contracts, even if the

They're very highly paid. So that's why they use these North Korean soldiers and their proof already of it. And this is completely new and it changes the nature of the conflict because it's not only about Russia. We already knew starting from 2020 to late 2022, I guess, early 2023, that they use Iranian weapons.

Shaheads, all these drones and then they started to use missiles from North Korea. We do know that Russians use a lot their drones and they use Chinese parts in these drones. But this is the very first time when they use foreign force, I mean, foreign soldiers, even if it is only on their territory, on Russian territory, when the Kursk operation, Ukrainian Kursk operation took place.

it makes a kind of different nature of this war and different consequences as well, because this is no more a war between Russia and Ukraine. It's Russia reinforced considerably by at least three other states, North Korea, Iran, and China. And this is a reason why Ukraine also needs strong partners, allies, allies,

to combat this danger. Because speaking of resources, we have a lot of news nowadays about weakness of Russian economy, about problems this economy is encountering now, specifically in many aspects, but it's still

it still means that Russian economy runs as of today and Ukrainian economy for sure has a lot of problems as well. We are largely supported by our partners. That's not a secret for anybody that public finances, they are very much helped by Ukrainian, by partners, by Europeans, by Americans. So, and without that assistance, Ukraine would never be able to stand, right? So, this...

This shows that Ukraine needs much more assistance and there is no reason why Ukrainian partners of Ukraine should hesitate when they see that this conflict is becoming larger on the other side.

Yes, indeed. Ukrainians, of course, very, very much appreciate the assistance we are receiving. But on the other hand, if we look at the way how, for example, Europe was solving its financial crisis and giving loans to

to some countries like Greece and it was hundreds of billions of euros, much more than it is today for Ukraine. Of course, you can argue that, look, Greece is a part of EU, part of the eurozone and therefore collapse of Greece at that time would mean the collapse, the big problems for the eurozone.

But look, collapse of Ukraine right now, military collapse of Ukraine will mean a big, big challenge for the EU and maybe eventually the end of the EU as well, or at least...

the need for the EU to fight a real war against Russia and not covering itself and hiding itself behind the Ukrainian shield. So when we compare these two situations, what is more important, the economic situation or the security military situation? And if we think that economic situation is more important, so we're still in a trap of

of thinking that economy first and money first and the war will never happen and the peace is forever. And I think we always say here in Ukraine that this is one of the biggest mistakes that

Europeans are making. Yes, exactly. You're absolutely right. Another novelty of this period of war, 2024, is about technology. Remember, we've been to the front lines, we were talking to Ukrainian soldiers and they told us a phrase which surprised us, right, very much. They told us, look, if you compare what was happening back in February 2022 and with what is happening right now,

you'd have an impression it's like you compare 19th century war to 21st century war because it's a huge abyss between these two types of war and precisely why. Remember in 2022 we had these tanks, we had these artillery missiles, all these manoeuvres, all these advances, spectacular ones. And now we have this technology, we have drones now,

dozens of types of drones, if not hundreds of types of drones, FPV drones. And recently Ukrainian media reported that in Kharkiv region, in the east, northeast of Ukraine, Khartia is a military unit, a famous one, had a first, very first drone

how you say, robotized. Robotized. Robotized battle. So a battle where you don't use your infantry, but you use machines instead. So

This is a small, tiny example from one unit, from one battle, but it could be extended. And remember, our former commanding chief Zaluzhny was talking about robots and about machines being used in this war and about the technology, which is important in this war. It's also, in a way, linked to resources and to economy because whoever is to win in this war will be faster to develop technologies.

And unfortunately, when we talk about technologies and we talk about drones, for example, we're also told by Ukrainian soldiers that China is selling parts for drones for both Russia and Ukraine.

So they're making money with this war, but the disadvantage for the Ukrainian side is that Russians get these passports faster than Ukrainians do. And speed is everything on the battleground because you have to develop your technology faster so you could control something. For example, you can control the air, you can see your enemy and not be transparent for him.

This is extremely important. So this war is about technology and about the speed in which things are progressing. And we, when we are in the capital somewhere in Kiev, we even don't realize how important is every day of this progress. Every day counts for the progress of this technology. And this is precisely why Ukraine needs some more support from our Western partners in this technology progress.

to be faster and to be able to produce on a large scale. So we are talking, by the way, have you noticed, we're talking about Ukrainian missiles for long distance. We are talking about these very original and even strange drones and missiles, and giants, which at the same time, drones and missiles like Peklo, so it's named Peklo,

which Ukraine started to produce, already produced 100, if I'm not mistaken, 100 missiles of this type. This is Ukrainian know-how, this is Ukrainian product, but we still need a lot of much more of this technology to be able to change the situation on the front line because Russians, they exhaust their resources, but they're still able to replace their weapons

Soviet, post-Soviet resources with North Korean weapons, with Chinese components, with some other inventions. So they still have the possibility to produce much more weapons than Ukraine do.

So indeed, to develop this technological question, what we see, we are not technology specialists, what we see when we are talking to soldiers, it's quite often that soldiers themselves invent something. And when, for example, the drones that Ukrainians have produced are produced by sometimes at home, sometimes in the garage, sometimes in very tiny factories.

And they are indeed most often produced from the Chinese parts. Here, of course, the chips can be not Chinese, the chips can be, by the way, Taiwanese or some others. And this also opens up the question of how we win this technology race.

who as you said who is faster who is who can produce large scale can we rely for example on on other countries than china can we rely on other southeastern economy southeast asian economies like taiwan or south korea or japan can we rely on western technologies this is a big question but so far you're right that that really it seems that chinese are everywhere and uh

And they are winning technologically because they can think about this war as a kind of a testing ground for their technologies. And I think this is a very bad news for both Europe and America and Japan and South Korea because, well, the wars move technology. You know, you cannot think about, for example, 20th century technology, all this equipment, all these machines, even cars without the revolution of the First World War, without the tank revolution of the First World War, right? Right.

And you cannot think about airplanes and aircraft without the air revolution of the Second World War, etc. Now we are really... What kind of trends do we see? We see that air superiority is of course key, but it's not about airplanes anymore, it's not about aircrafts, it's about much smaller devices.

And we're talking about drones and can be smaller and smaller and smaller. And we're probably moving to this episode of the Black Mirror TV series where we actually had something like drones, like very, very little drones, very, very small drones like bees.

The second thing is, of course, the artificial intelligence and the way how artificial intelligence can organize the battle. So the battlefields are extremely technological right now because they accumulate and we have been to such places on the Ukrainian side. We have seen how the battle is actually organized and how lots of information you get from drones, you get from big data, you get from...

from analysis, you get from listening to your enemy, etc., etc.,

And one thing, for example, we were told is that, look, yes, but still many both sides are relying on such Chinese drones as DJI, the famous Chinese firm, which is everywhere in the world. And you probably, those who are listening to us, you probably have some DJI drone at your home and you're just filming nature, you're filming weddings or you're filming football matches or I don't know what. No.

Now it's an extremely powerful tool at the battlefield, but the problem is that Russians have much better access to DJI technologies than, for example, Ukraine. That's extremely interesting. Let's talk a little bit about everyday life, how it has changed during this year.

So we are in December 2024. So this is a sort of winter living in this full scale invasion. So let's talk how it looks like. And let's talk about, for example, blackouts. Remember, in 2022, we had pretty frequent blackouts during this period because Russians targeted our territory.

electricity objects and they were blackouts for many hours I remember the longest one here the apartment we are talking from was for lasted for 36 hours right and

So during the next winter, 2023, there were no attacks, no Russian attacks during the winter because they were probably shot off missiles. They were preparing their attacks for spring, what they realized later, what they really did later in spring, in April and May 2024.

And now this is another reality because Russians, they do try to destroy our, they already destroyed a huge part of Ukrainian electricity network, specifically the generation of this electricity. So this is different from 2022. But at the same time, they are enabled to create these longer blackouts because actually we are talking in the period of

where we do not have blackouts for one week at least already. So before we had blackouts for a couple of hours during the day. You mean electricity cuts, not the real blackouts. No, blackouts, electricity cuts. Blackouts, it never happened. The real one never happened in Ukraine, even in 2022. We were close to that in 2022. So what does it mean in fact? So it means that we do know that...

a big part of this electricity system is damaged. At least 30-40% of the generation of electricity, apart from nuclear plants, a lot of other electricity systems are damaged. But at the same time, there is kind of...

kind of resourcefulness of the system which helps Ukrainians to repair quickly, quicker than before, and then to invent decentralized systems which help

You have electricity in many places at the same time, and it makes it harder and harder for the enemy, I mean for the Russian army, to destroy everything. So this is a kind of a very good example how can you deal with this terrorist approach because Russians, they do things automatically. So they started this terror politics back in 1922 thinking that if they destroy the electricity system here in Ukraine, so Ukrainians would...

not be able to resist, they will make some pressure on the Ukrainian government, on Zelensky, for Ukraine to surrender because it's difficult, but the problem is that first, people are getting used to these electricity cuts, and secondly, the system itself has some place for adaptation, so there is no such major problems even now, because even during the winter. So it means that

If they continue their attacks against our system, there is still some way out. Yes, indeed. December is over. So we can say that December was not a disaster at all. December is almost over, right? We are making this episode on the eve of the Christmas holiday.

And there are two more months, so we will see what will happen. But so far we don't have the kind of a realization of those very black scenarios that we had, even including from our government, from our... I myself talked to energy minister and when he was meeting the civil society representatives,

he was not saying like, okay, I expect this and this. So the major things he was saying that we don't know. And I don't know if it was sincere or the policy was to hide information, even from the journalists and civil society, because you understand that any information that goes outside, and this raises a question of information during wartime, any information that goes to your friends actually appears in your enemies. So...

I don't know what was the motivation at that time, but so far we don't have this implementation of these gloomy scenarios. Let's see what happens. Maybe indeed Ukraine succeeded to build a decentralized system of energy supply that helps us to preserve energy.

Maybe the role of the nuclear power is big and by the law Ukrainian nuclear power stations account for at least half of electricity generation and Russians are so far not that crazy to strike on the nuclear power stations. Yeah, exactly. I don't think there is any kind of increase in nuclear power because it's simply impossible. They speak about the possibility to create new nuclear power

power stations later on but there's a big debate if Ukraine really needs them. Another important issue, how does society feel about this? I've noticed for example during this last year that

What changed our attitude towards air alerts, for example? Remember, in 2022 and 2023, when there would be a sirens or air alerts, people would react in a way or another. At least a lot of shops closed in the beginning, right? At least Nova Poshta closed in the beginning.

banks closed i guess only banks now close if there is an air let's because even nova posh depends mcdonald's is closing mcdonald's is still closing yeah okay but 90 i'm i'm pretty sure 90 the big retail shops do not close usually but it's small let's talk about what we know but in harkiv so what people relay that then when you arrive to nova posh and you see it closes

every moment when you realize that there is an air alert because otherwise you would not notice it because if it happens all the time so when we travel to Sumer region for example you have air alerts all the time almost all the time I don't know 20 hours a day it's northern Ukraine close to the Russian border eastern Ukraine it's 20-30 kilometers to the Russian border the same situation in Kharkiv so

And when it's off all the time, you just cannot stop and don't leave your life to be in the bomb shelter. This is simply impossible. So people just don't pay attention to that. It depends. It depends because, for example, I recently met our friends in one of the underground metro stations. It's 6 a.m.,

And the station was full of people who went there precisely during air alert because it is closer to places that are usually hit. There are some places in Kyiv, we will not disclose them, but which are usually hit by the Russian missiles. So it depends where you live. It depends whether you have a big bomb shelter

Near you, the most obvious one is the metro station, which is a deep metro station.

Well, if we were living near the deep metro station, we would probably go there, right? Because, well, let's be honest, in our neighborhood, you won't find this very well-equipped underground bombshell. Yeah, but still we have some in our building. But let's see how schools react. So schools, they are obliged to react to this air alert, and they still do. So...

teachers and instructors, they have eight minutes, if I'm not mistaken, to get kids in the bomb shelter. Not nine minutes, but eight minutes. But at the same time, look what happens with our, for example, art school. So they started having classes during the air alerts. So normally they're obliged to stop, to interrupt classes,

but look what's happening during dancing classes of our kids or during even music classes this year. They just don't interrupt it because it's just what is happening. So if it is about...

drones, it's probably not serious or if it is about I don't know, this kind of alert where this is just risk of ballistic missiles it means there's a fighter jet somewhere in the air, somewhere in Russia so it's not that serious so people are trying to so the voice I try to say that the voice has become a part of our lives a part of people's lives and it's even not so much about

about this time of resistance and when you, for example, you are afraid but you overcome your fears and you stand. This is like, this is a part of yourself. And I think you would agree if I say that if there are some nights without alerts,

It's getting strange. It's getting strange and you are, it's kind of anxiety. Like Russians are preparing something big. They are accumulating their forces and they will launch 100 missiles tomorrow. And let's also say that these air alerts have become a daily business, right? So there is no single night, almost no single night without this air alert which starts around...

10 p.m. and which lasts sometimes until the morning, so 6 in the morning, 7 in the morning, sometimes 10 in the morning, so by interrupting school and all this stuff, and on the whole territory. So Russians are still trying to use these drones, to use these missiles, and apparently they have a lot, a lot of drones, because we speak about hundreds of drones used every single night.

So it means they have a lot of this resource and they try to intimidate, to terrorize Ukraine, but it simply doesn't work because people don't react. Yes, unfortunately...

people were killed today. Like, for example, today there was at least one person killed by a missile in Krivy Rih, at least one dozen of wounded and at least one residential building demolished in Krivy Rih today. And it happens every day. Two days before there was a major, minor fire in one of the buildings in our district, in Provary, right? So it happens every day. It could be closer to

or far away from you, but it happens every day. But at the same time, people, Ukrainians, I would not say that we consider that normal, but we get used to it. So you can live during the war as if it would be normal. Yes, a kind of a continuation of a normal life with all the ifs and whens and everything like that. So...

What else? Let's talk about the future, let's talk about the way out, the discussion about the ways out of this war because this is a very important topic. And Trump is going to be inaugurated, we don't see the exact plan on how to solve this conflict.

And the discussion in the United States around Trump is just sometimes it seems to be very silly for me because it's a discussion how we disencourage Ukraine to continue this war while the key question is how you disencourage Russia to continue.

to stop this war because if you disencourage Ukraine, if you don't help Ukraine too much, will you think that Russia will stop the war? Why should it stop the war? It will continue the war with more forces and it will take villages after villages, kill hundreds and hundreds of people and go and take big, try to get big cities and Ukrainians of course will not retreat and the fights for big cities

like Dnipro, Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, Kyiv, it's a huge number of deaths and sooner or later any American presence will need to react. So the naivete with which some people outside are discussing the Ukrainian topic is really astonishing and maybe it should not really surprise us.

But what do I think? The discussion is very often focused on the question of territories. The war is still perceived as the war for territories. And it's a very wrong perception of this war. So if you think that Russia cares about territories, that Russians really care about which village they will take,

It's an illusion because every village that they take, every town that they take, do not think that there are good golden mines there or diamond mines. There is probably nothing there. So it's materially, symbolically not important for them.

And the danger may be that, yeah, Ukraine is saying openly right now that it cannot at this moment retake these territories militarily. So it probably will hope to get them back diplomatically. But another question, and I think the deeper question, is what else Russians want to achieve?

And if Russians are saying, for example, that the goal of this war is demilitarization of Ukraine and denazification of Ukraine, by denazification they actually mean stripping out of Ukrainian identity, Ukrainian language, Ukrainian culture, etc., which Ukrainians, of course, will never accept. But this is a very, very strong question, which is at the core of this war. And I think that not so many people outside of Ukraine understand.

Yes, indeed. So geopolitically, the situation seems to be quite confusing. So after the election and the victory of Donald Trump, we still don't know the plan and nobody knows the plan. And maybe Donald Trump doesn't know the plan, the exact plan. There are a lot of talks in every direction what exactly will Donald Trump do next.

Ukraine, so a lot of debates, but still we're not sure about what's going on. So we are, there's a kind of anxiety about that because, yes, indeed, we talk, so in this whole narrative about the war, we

We hear these ideas about negotiations, about some kind of arrangements. We hear some talks about how do we stop this war as if this would be possible in 24 hours, even in 24 days. It's not impossible to stop this kind of war because to stop this war you just need money.

to find some way out. And apparently Russia is not about to stop and Putin is not about to stop. You mentioned this. This is an illusion to think of this war as war for territories. I would agree with some remark at the same time because territories are important for Ukraine and this is important for us to regain our territories.

But you're absolutely right. This is not a war for territories. This is a war for principles. And what Putin wants to show to Ukraine, but also to everybody outside Ukraine, is that he's strong enough and he has this right to violate the borders of the neighboring states.

And this is about power and this is about the right, right. So this is about principles. And the big question to new American administration, to old American administration, to our European partners, to what we call democratic free world, would we accept this kind of behavior and say whatever? Maybe some compromises with this evil would...

would be a solution. We have bad news for people who think that because we tried this way more than once in the past. We tried to compromise with Russia during this complicated period from 2014 to

until 2022, it simply doesn't work because they don't understand this diplomacy, they need the language of compromise. And so they want it all. So they want the disappearance of Ukraine as a state, as an independent state,

They consider Ukrainians to be kind of wrong Russians. And this is not about Ukrainians. This is not about that we want to exist. This is about human dignity. I mean, in general meaning. So this is about the right of a nation, of a country to kill others and

and not being punished. So if you accept Putin doing that, why don't you accept? Why will not you accept any other country doing that to any other member? So this is about principles. Maybe it could seem a banality we are talking about that since 2022, but nothing's changed. So it's still this war of aggression where Putin tries to show the whole...

democratic free aliens that he has right to change borders he has a right to make disappear people even nations he has this right to distract cities big cities like for example

And so if there is no strong response, he will simply continue to do what he's doing. And Donald Trump as a president, he has no, no, really no arguments to talk Putin into kind of negotiation. This is an illusion.

This is simply not possible. But still there is hope as far as we really don't know the plans of Donald Trump and his new administration. We'll see how it goes. And every new beginning brings us a chance for a situation to be changed. And we cannot exclude that with Donald Trump being president of the United States, things could change for the best.

I think it's also important. Yeah, America is important, but it's also important the role of Europe. And when I'm saying Europe, I'm not saying the European Union only. I'm saying that in Europe we need kind of a coalition of willing, of the willing, the countries who will be more decisive to respond to this Russian invasion. There are talks, we see that in the press, there are negotiations of, you know, negotiations

deployment of peacekeepers, European peacekeepers in Ukraine. That can be one of the solutions because Russians will be afraid of, you know, continuing the aggression if you have the troops of the NATO member states. We see at the same time how the war is actually approaching to the very far remote countries, it seems to be.

We see that, for example, the oil trade, the collapse, the recent environmental disaster of Russian oil tankers in the Azov Sea. Well, it's a sign to everybody because if you have these...

the situations, for example, in the Baltic Sea, if you have the situations near the coast of Denmark or near the coast of Sweden, what will happen? And the key oil trade is actually going in this region. And one of the scenarios, for example, is that...

Ukrainian partners start really going after this system of Russian oil trade, which is going primarily through the ships. There are several hundred, I think some people count 700, 800, maybe 1,000 of these tankers. Many of them are very, very old and therefore they sink quickly.

in the sea, they produce a lot of environmental damage, but it's really important to go after them. We see that Russian economy is weak indeed, and we see that interest rates are increased and increased and increased, and that means that the

the cost of money, the price of money is huge. So Russia really lacks money because it pours all the money it has into the war economy. We see that autocratic regimes are fragile and we see that on the example of the fall of the Assad regime

And we see from the Russian history that however strong they might seem, the regimes, they collapse very, very quickly. This happened in 1917. This happened in 1991. So we should not have the illusion that, well, Russia is so strong. It is a system which is based upon fear. And if you remove...

At one point when not you remove but history removes one of these key elements, everything collapses. It's not like in democracies when you have plural number of factors that put society together.

Yeah, so we really need to think about these factors and I think also our partners need to think how they can use the economic strength, which is a much bigger economic strength of Europe, United States, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan combined, even against the Russian-Chinese pact. I'm not sure that China is so much...

willing to get involved into this war. So, and Russian economy is really weak. So, you know...

Building, developing these military technologies, helping Ukraine to win this technological race, helping Ukraine to produce armaments by itself with the help of the partners' finances. These things are very important. Yeah, maybe the last thing, you're absolutely right to mention Syria in this context. So this regime disappeared just in a matter of several days.

and it lasted for more than 15 years, right? So this is something which could happen to Russia. And Bashar al-Assad is in Moscow. And if I'm not mistaken, his wife is divorcing him and she moves to London. She doesn't want to live in Russia, in Moscow. That's clear enough. So let's put it clear. This is the first year we are talking about weakness of Russia in economic terms.

In economic context and also in terms of military resources, both in terms of people, that's why they use North Korean, because they have problems to mobilize their own people, and in terms of tanks and other weapons. Open resources, they're talking about the probabilities that Russia would probably run out of its post-Soviet heritage of these weapons.

of these weapons in a year, maybe in a year and a half, but we already see the consequences. So this year, 2024, is also a year when we firstly talk about this weakness of Russia. And this is important to understand that Russia is not a state, nuclear state, big state,

where everything is possible and where resourceful are limitless. There are some limits even to the Russian resources. And maybe this is just the beginning of the end. So let us be patient. Let us stay strong. And let's have hope for the future because a Syrian example shows us everything is possible. And history is moving on.

I will end only by two aphorisms, which are the one I invented very, very long time ago, I think in 2014. Another one just came into my head just now. The first aphorism is the fear of provoking Russia provokes Russia. So we always need to remember that. And the second aphorism is that if you show yourself weak,

the Russia will appear stronger than it is. And if you show yourself strong, the Russia will appear weaker than it seems.

Just look at the way how Russia proceeds with Ukrainian territories since 2014. They're actually saying we own more territories than they de facto control. And if you see some territories right now, they will say we actually own more. We want Odessa, we want Dnipro, we want some other Ukrainian cities.

But if you show strength to this regime, it's quite probable that it will collapse very, very quickly because it does have, you know, some...

very, very, very important problematic points. And as we are finishing our podcast, we have the air raid siren. As promised, always at this time, we are approaching midnight in Ukraine. Always in this time, we have this air raid siren and Russians are starting shooting missiles and drones against us, but we are not afraid. This was a podcast explaining Ukraine by Ukraine World. I'm

a multilingual media about Ukraine. My name is Volodymyr Yermolenko. I am chief editor of Ukraine World and president of Pan-Ukraine. My guest was Tetiana Oharkova, who is Ukrainian intellectual and journalist and the head of international outreach department at Ukraine Crisis Media Center. You can support us at patreon.com/ukraineworld. We offer exclusive content for our patrons. You can also support our regular, very regular trips to the war zones.

We will make another trip the day after yesterday to Kharkiv Oblast. We try to help our civilians and to help our soldiers. You can support us at PayPal, ukraine.resistinggmail.com. Stay with us and stand with Ukraine.