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cover of episode How oil traders called the Middle East war

How oil traders called the Middle East war

2025/7/2
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Behind the Money
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M
Malcolm Moore
S
Safiya Ahmed
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Malcolm Moore: 作为FT的能源编辑，我观察到全球石油市场存在一个古老的规律：中东战争爆发时，油价通常会上涨，因为石油资源丰富的地区发生冲突时，石油可能会变得稀缺。但这次伊朗袭击美国在卡塔尔的空军基地后，油价却没有上涨，反而下跌。这表明交易员认为这次冲突是短暂的。他们通过各种信息来源评估风险，包括开源情报、社交媒体和算法预测。其中，霍尔木兹海峡是他们最关心的，因为全球四分之一的石油通过该海峡运输。如果伊朗关闭该海峡，将导致全球石油供应出现问题。然而，由于全球石油供应充足，交易员对这次冲突的反应相对平静。美国介入后，交易员认为冲突会迅速结束，因为不希望长期冲突导致伊朗关闭霍尔木兹海峡的风险。 Safiya Ahmed: 我认为石油交易员的工作是在中东地区局势紧张时，决定是买入还是卖出石油。他们通过分析各种信息，包括社交媒体和卫星图像，来判断冲突是否会升级。这次，他们正确地预判了冲突的走向，表明他们对市场心理的把握非常准确。他们不仅关注传统的供需关系，还关注地缘政治因素和技术发展对市场的影响。随着技术的发展，他们将更多地利用人工智能等技术来更好地了解冲突的走向，从而做出更明智的决策。

Deep Dive

Chapters
Contrary to the typical market reaction to Middle East conflicts, oil prices did not spike when Iran attacked a US airbase in Qatar. Instead, oil traders anticipated a short-lived conflict and started selling, correctly predicting the outcome. This episode explores how these traders made this accurate prediction.
  • Oil prices typically spike during Middle East conflicts due to potential supply scarcity.
  • In this instance, oil traders bet against the trend, anticipating a short conflict.
  • The market reacted in the opposite direction, with traders selling oil instead of buying.

Shownotes Transcript

When Iran attacked a US airbase in Qatar – a response to strikes on its nuclear facilities – many feared a global war may be imminent. But there was one market that didn’t break a sweat: oil. It’s typically a commodity that surges at the first sight of conflict in the Middle East. This time though, oil traders bet that the conflict involving Iran, Israel and the US would be short-lived. The FT’s energy editor Malcolm Moore explains how traders called the outcome correctly. 

Clips from ABC News, Al Jazeera, Associated Press, CBS News, Fox 9 Minneapolis St Paul, ITV News, KTLA 5, NBC News

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For further reading:

How oil traders called the Middle East conflict)

Fuel and fury: energy becomes a Middle East battlefield)

Why oil traders are watching the Strait of Hormuz)

Why is the oil price not surging?)

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Follow Malcolm Moore (@MalcolmMoore)) and Saffeya Ahmed on X (@saffeya_ahmed)), or follow Saffeya on LinkedIn) for updates about the show and more. 

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com) Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy) for more information.