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cover of episode Lessons from the recent US Treasuries sell-off

Lessons from the recent US Treasuries sell-off

2025/4/23
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Behind the Money
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Kate Duguid
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旁白
知名游戏《文明VII》的开场动画预告片旁白。
Topics
旁白: 特朗普的关税政策导致美国国债市场出现抛售，引发市场担忧。美国国债市场抛售引发广泛担忧，因为该市场与全球经济密切相关，问题会迅速蔓延。虽然目前美国国债市场看似稳定，但特朗普暂停关税并非长久之计，潜在问题依然存在。 Kate Duguid: 美国国债市场通常被认为稳定，但近年来却出现多次动荡，市场规模的增长加剧了问题复杂性。美国国债市场规模巨大，这与特朗普政府的减税政策、疫情期间的支出以及较高的利率有关。资产管理公司、外国私人投资者和对冲基金是此次美国国债抛售的主要参与者。资产管理公司抛售国债可能出于保持流动性和对未来市场预期变化两方面原因，这并非重大结构性问题。外国私人投资者抛售国债可能源于对美国资产信心下降，以及特朗普关税政策的不确定性。美国严重依赖外国投资者购买国债，疏远盟友并劝退外国投资者将损害美国和美国国债市场。对冲基金在国债市场扮演着越来越重要的角色，但其高杠杆投资策略也增加了市场风险。对冲基金的套利交易和利率互换交易是导致此次国债市场瓶颈的重要因素。拜登政府曾试图加强对冲基金的监管，但这些努力大部分已被特朗普政府取消。虽然此次国债市场抛售规模巨大，但相对有序，并没有出现重大系统性问题，但市场仍存在结构性问题。加强监管可以提高市场稳定性，但无法完全避免市场波动。缩减国债市场规模将有助于提高市场稳定性，但这需要政府减少支出或提高税收，以及降低利率。未来美国国债市场可能面临更多挑战，因为市场结构性问题依然存在，且拜登政府的监管努力已被取消。

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Shownotes Transcript

Markets shook after US President Donald Trump announced his so-called reciprocal tariffs earlier this month. But there was one market in particular that got investors particularly worried: Treasuries. What’s usually a safe haven asset suddenly saw huge sell-offs. Trump managed to avoid further pain by pausing large chunks of his tariffs, but the sell-off prompts a discussion about significant structural flaws in the market. The FT’s US markets editor Kate Duguid explains which cracks in the US Treasuries market we can't ignore.

Clip from The Wall Street Journal

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For further reading:

Why did Donald Trump buckle?)

Is the world losing faith in the almighty US dollar?)

The debt-fuelled bet on US Treasuries that’s scaring regulators) 

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Follow Kate Duguid on X (@kateduguid)). Michela Tindera is on X (@mtindera07)) and Bluesky (@mtindera.ft.com)), or follow her on LinkedIn for updates about the show and more.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com) Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy) for more information.