IMF AGI Preparation

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2023/12/Scenario-Planning-for-an-AGI-future-Anton-korinek

Anton Korinek

Fellow, Brookings Institute

Professor, UVA

Former, Johns Hopkins, IMF

Frontier of Automation - Task complexity of machines increases over time

Unbounded Distribution - Human task complexity can go up indefinitely, meaning that some people will always be ahead of AGI and ASI

Bounded Distribution - Humans have a maximum task complexity (Theory of General Relativity)

Outlines 3 Scenarios

1. Business as Usual - All current trends continue without the frontier of automation continuing

2. 20 Year Baseline - AGI's frontier of automation subsumes most/all human abilities within about 20 years

3. 5 Year Aggressive - AGI's frontier of automation subsumes most/all human abilities within 5 years (more likely)

Wages vs Output

1. Business as Usual - Wages and output continue to grow more or less correlated for the foreseeable future

2. 20 Year Baseline - Productivity (output) accelerates, but wages peak by about 10 years and then collapse to zero or near zero

3. 5 Year Aggressive - Same, but the parabolic curve is steeper (more likely IMHO)

Persistent Jobs

- Nostalgiac Jobs - Human preference for humans (such as politicians and religious positions)

- Experience Jobs - Tour guides, sex workers, performing artists

- Care Jobs - Child care, massage therapy, nurses

https://youtu.be/J1GBqATZBRA?si=qG85HGxxi4jFmwxV

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Frontier of Automation expands beyond humans. AGI destroys all jobs within 5 to 20 years! 25:08 Share

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