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cover of episode Dollar Gains After Two-Day Dip, Oil Holds Decline With Higher OPEC+ Supply

Dollar Gains After Two-Day Dip, Oil Holds Decline With Higher OPEC+ Supply

2025/5/6
logo of podcast Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition

Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition
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Suresh Tantia
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Vandana Hari
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我观察到，尽管台湾元汇率近期大幅上涨，可能会对台湾企业，特别是出口导向型企业，造成短期冲击，但由于这些企业，尤其是在半导体产业的企业，拥有强大的定价能力，并且在全球市场上竞争力强，因此我相信他们有能力通过调整价格策略来抵消汇率波动带来的负面影响。 此外，美国科技公司对人工智能技术的投资持续增长，预计今年将增长50%，明年增长30%。这一趋势将为台湾科技公司带来巨大的盈利机遇，从而进一步提振台湾股市。 至于美国股市，基于近期强劲的经济数据，例如上周的就业报告和昨夜的ISF数据，显示美国经济依然健康，没有出现衰退迹象。强劲的经济增长将推动企业盈利增长，而本季度企业盈利已经超出市场预期，这将进一步支撑美国股市上涨。我预测标普500指数有望从当前水平上涨至5800点。 对于新兴市场，我特别看好印度股市。印度经济增长已经触底反弹，政府的资本支出和消费者需求都在回升，印度央行也在持续降息，这些因素都将推动印度股市盈利增长。预计今年印度股市的每股收益增长率将接近15%，这将使其成为全球盈利增长最快的市场之一。 至于中国股市，虽然短期内可能由于贸易谈判的不确定性而波动，但我对中国科技股和电动汽车行业的长期前景持乐观态度。经过一段时间的监管压力后，中国政府对私营企业的态度更加友好，这将推动中国科技企业的销售和盈利增长。 最后，关于亚洲货币，短期内亚洲货币走强通常会吸引资本流入，导致亚洲股市表现优于全球其他地区。但是，长期来看，强势货币会对出口商的盈利产生负面影响。如果亚洲货币升值幅度超过个位数，例如像台湾元那样升值10%-15%，那么对经济的负面影响将是显著的。

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Shownotes Transcript

A gauge of the dollar rose 0.3% after declining Monday as speculation around potential trade deals sparked an extraordinary spike in Taiwan's dollar and resonated across global foreign exchange markets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index rose 0.6% to a record. US stock futures edged lower after the S&P 500 halted its longest rally in about 20 years. We get a look at the market landscape with Suresh Tantia, Chief Investment Officer and APAC Strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management. He speaks to Bloomberg's Shery Ahn and Haidi Stroud-Watts.

Plus - oil dropped during New York's Monday session after OPEC+ agreed to another large output increase, raising concern that additional supply could lead to a global glut just as the trade war threatens demand. We get reaction from Vandana Hari, Founder at VANDA Insights.

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