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cover of episode Fed Holds Rates, Signals Higher Prices are Coming Due to Tariffs

Fed Holds Rates, Signals Higher Prices are Coming Due to Tariffs

2025/6/19
logo of podcast Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition

Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition
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Betsey Stevenson
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Mark Cranfield
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Mark Cranfield: 作为一名彭博市场策略师，我认为美联储在当前复杂的地缘政治和经济环境下，成功地执行了一项艰难的平衡策略。他们既要关注国内经济，又要考虑到全球市场的影响，这使得他们的任务异常艰巨。尽管面临经济预测下调和通胀预期上升的双重挑战，美联储仍设法避免了市场动荡，这确实值得肯定。然而，我也观察到美国正面临日益严重的滞胀风险，这无疑给美联储的政策制定带来了更大的压力。如果通胀持续上升，美联储是否会真的选择加息？在当前的环境下，我个人认为，美联储更倾向于在经济恶化时采取降息措施，以避免经济陷入衰退。此外，美元作为避险资产的地位正在减弱，这为其他货币提供了崛起的机会。欧元和人民币都在增强其吸引力，成为美元的替代选择。尽管美国国债的外国持有量有所增加，但其中短期投机资金的比例也在上升，这增加了美国国债市场的不稳定性。总的来说，我认为美国经济面临着多重挑战，美联储需要在通胀、增长和国际因素之间找到一个微妙的平衡点。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter analyzes the weakening haven appeal of the US dollar, exploring the strengthening euro, the stability of the Chinese yuan, and the implications for global fund flows and investment decisions. The impact of the US fiscal situation and potential sovereign rating downgrades on investor confidence is also discussed.
  • US dollar underperforming against major currencies
  • Euro strengthening due to increased defense spending and improved market liquidity
  • China supporting yuan stability, attracting foreign investment
  • Concerns over US fiscal deficit and potential sovereign rating downgrades
  • China playing a long game in trade negotiations with the US

Shownotes Transcript

Senior US officials are preparing for the possibility of a strike on Iran in the coming days, according to people familiar with the matter, a sign that Washington is assembling the infrastructure to directly enter a conflict with Tehran.Meantime, there are a lot of unknowns about the outlook for the economy and interest rates, but Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled at least one thing seems certain: Higher prices are coming. Policymakers voted unanimously to hold interest rates steady for a fourth straight meeting Wednesday as they await clarity on whether tariffs will leave a one-time or more lasting mark on inflation. Powell said it’s still unclear how much of the bill will fall on the shoulders of consumers, but he expects to learn more about tariffs this summer. For more, we speak to Mark Cranfield, Bloomberg MLIV Strategist in Singapore.Plus - for more on the Federal Reserve's latest decision, we heard from Betsey Stevenson. She is a Professor at the University of Michigan. Stevenson was also a former Chief Economist of the United States Department of Labor.

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