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cover of episode Tariff Threats Offset Wall Street Gains; The State of China's AI Race

Tariff Threats Offset Wall Street Gains; The State of China's AI Race

2025/7/1
logo of podcast Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition

Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
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B
Burns McKinney
C
Catherine Thorbeck
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Burns McKinney: 大家好，我是Burns McKinney。我认为市场在经历了最初的关税冲击后，逐渐恢复了信心，认为实际情况可能没有最初担心的那么糟糕，因此市场反弹至原位。但是，尽管关税可能没有最初预期的那么糟糕，但风险回报可能不如之前，因为关税水平仍然很高。我认为股市估值偏高，未来依赖盈利增长，但关税可能挤压利润。利润率是投资者关注的重点，尤其是在当前政策环境下，企业利润率接近历史高位，关税可能进一步挤压利润。美元贬值和美国例外论的讨论，可能促使投资者寻求多元化投资，关注海外市场。贸易战无赢家，地缘政治风险和对美联储独立性的担忧，促使投资者关注海外市场。股市暗示美国将避免衰退，债市暗示通胀不是问题，投资者可能需要分散投资。我认为债券市场通常比股票市场更准确，美联储在控制通胀方面相对成功。通胀已经下降，美联储的首选指标核心PCE接近2%的目标，关税尚未导致通胀复燃。市场预期美联储将在9月或10月降息，降息的原因可能是经济紧急情况或通胀得到控制。投资者应关注美联储降息的最终目标，而非下一次行动，通胀可能不会完全恢复到过去10-15年的水平。如果利率维持在稍高的水平，投资者应缩短久期，选择价值股和派息股。我们的策略是寻找相对估值，不择时，始终保持充分投资，并关注回报股东的公司。欧洲股市估值较低，可能因利率下调和财政政策的改善而迎来催化剂。欧洲的财政政策环境也在改善，各国开始关注基础设施和国防支出。美元走弱通常有利于新兴市场股票，投资者可以适当配置。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter analyzes the surprising stock market rally in Q2, driven by tech shares and hopes of trade deals. Experts discuss the risk of a speculative bubble, the impact of tariffs on corporate margins, and the weakening dollar. The role of the Fed's actions and the potential for future rate cuts are also examined.
  • S&P 500 up 25% from April lows, best quarter since December 2023
  • Markets rebounded after initial tariff concerns
  • Equity markets look richly valued at 23 times earnings
  • Tariffs could squeeze profit margins
  • Weakening dollar raises questions about the appeal of US assets

Shownotes Transcript

Asian stocks are poised for a cautious open as investors weighed the buoyant mood on Wall Street with lingering concerns over the global impact of President Donald Trump's tariff agenda. Equity-index futures pointed to a decline in Tokyo as Trump threatened to impose a fresh tariff level on Japan. Contracts for the S&P 500 edged down 0.1% after the index notched its best quarter since December 2023 on Monday, with technology shares leading. Wall Street's bulls drove stocks to all-time highs at the end of a solid quarter amid hopes the US is moving closer to reaching concrete deals with its top trading partners. We break down the forces driving the day's price action with Burns McKinney, Managing Director and Senior Portfolio Manager at NFJ Investment Group.Plus -  with thousands of generative AI tools flooding the market and firms slashing prices to zero, Chinese startups are battling not just global rivals - but each other. We explore the challenges facing the so-called "Little Dragons," the role of state support, and why monetizing AI might be the industry's biggest unsolved puzzle with Catherine Thorbecke, Asia Tech Columnist for Bloomberg Opinion.

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