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cover of episode Treasuries Hold Gains, Bitcoin Hits New All-Time High

Treasuries Hold Gains, Bitcoin Hits New All-Time High

2025/5/23
logo of podcast Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition

Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
C
Chris Waller
E
Eric Sterner
P
Peter Chung
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Eric Sterner: 我认为债券市场一直存在波动，因为人们对关税和赤字有很多担忧。甚至有人说国债正在失去其作为避风港的地位，但我认为这种说法太过分了，因为没有替代品。税收法案对我们的债务水平会产生什么影响，存在很多不同的解读。经济学家的一些预测和预测表明，它将增加到我们自二战以来从未见过的水平，而白宫告诉我们的却完全是另一回事。我认为这只是导致债券市场出现了很多波动。我认为利率将保持在高位。只要十年期国债收益率不接近5%，我认为我们就没事。我认为一旦你开始看到10年期国债收益率接近5%，你可能会看到股市出现一些回调。我认为特朗普总统最听取股市和债市的意见。他不想把我们推入衰退。所以我认为这都是高风险的谈判。一旦我们希望在未来几个月内达成这些贸易协议，那么在减税和放松管制之间，我们将有很多值得期待的事情，这将为经济提供顺风。劳动力市场仍然非常健康。消费者支出总体上保持稳定。我仍然乐观，但我们肯定需要克服这种贸易政策的不确定性，然后希望体验到我提到的那些顺风。 Chris Waller: 我认为美联储可能会在今年下半年降息。如果我们能将关税降至10%左右，然后在7月前的某个时候全部敲定、完成并交付，那么我们在今年下半年就会有好转。然后，作为美联储，我们就有能力在今年下半年通过降息来采取行动。

Deep Dive

Chapters
Concerns about tariffs and deficits have caused volatility in the bond market, with some predicting debt levels not seen since World War II. However, the chief investment officer at Apollon Wealth Management believes that treasuries still have no replacement, and that rates will stay high, but the situation is manageable unless 10-year Treasury yields approach 5%. The impact of tariffs on inflation is debated, with some believing them to be transitory.
  • Volatility in the bond market due to concerns about tariffs and deficits
  • Predictions of increased debt levels
  • Debate on the impact of tariffs on inflation
  • Concerns about 10-year Treasury yields approaching 5%

Shownotes Transcript

Asian shares posted a modest gain early Friday, after a rebound in Treasuries and the dollar eased some concerns about US fiscal policy. A regional stock gauge advanced 0.4% on gains in Japan, Australia and South Korea. US equity-index futures fluctuated in early Asian trading after the S&P 500 ended fractionally lower for its third daily decline. Treasuries steadied after rallying across the curve Thursday on moderating US fiscal concerns. We get market perspective from Eric Sterner, Chief Investment Officer at Apollon Wealth Management.

Plus - Bitcoin surpassed $111,000 for the first time, with traders increasingly bullish on the prospects of the original cryptocurrency amid mounting institutional demand and support from Donald Trump's administration. Bitcoin climbed as much as 3.4% on Thursday to hit a record of $111,980, before paring some of the increase. Smaller tokens also rose in a broad rally, with second-ranked Ether at one point up about 7.3%. We get reaction from Peter Chung, Head of Research at quant crypto firm, Presto Research.

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