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Daybreak Weekend: Nvidia Earnings, G20 Summit, U.S-China Relations
2025/2/21
Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
M
Mandeep Singh
S
Stuart Paul
Tom Busby: 本周五将公布一月份的美国个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）以及个人支出和个人收入数据。鉴于当前经济存在诸多不确定性，例如美国关税威胁、联邦裁员和零售销售增长放缓，这些数据将对美联储的政策走向产生重大影响。
Stuart Paul: 我们预计一月份核心PCE通胀率将达到0.3%，高于十二月份的0.1%。这主要是由于一些可选服务类别的价格上涨，例如住宿和娱乐服务，以及医院服务价格上涨。虽然一些类别，如住房和汽车保险，仍然存在持续的价格压力，但我认为一月份的数据将显示出一些剩余的季节性因素。能源价格上涨，特别是由于一月份的极寒天气导致的电力和公用事业需求激增，也对整体通胀率产生了影响。
至于个人支出和个人收入，我们预计一月份个人收入增长将接近0.4%，这主要得益于社会保障领取者的生活成本调整以及医疗保险和医疗补助收入的增加。然而，个人支出却下降了0.1%，这与十二月份0.7%的增长形成鲜明对比。汽车销量下降以及消费者在家具和服装等可选商品和服务上的支出减少是造成这一现象的主要原因。尽管如此，个人储蓄率仍然保持在4.3%左右，远低于疫情前的水平。
Deep Dive
Analysis of January's PCE report, focusing on inflation and personal spending, and its potential implications for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The discussion includes factors like stubbornly high inflation, the impact of weather on energy prices, and the relationship between personal income and spending.
- January core PCE inflation estimated at 0.3%, higher than December's 0.1%
- Discretionary services like accommodations and recreation are driving core PCE inflation
- Persistent price pressures observed in shelter and auto insurance
- Personal income growth estimated at 0.4% month-on-month, while spending declined by 0.1%
- Low personal saving rate (4.3%) indicates continued high spending despite economic headwinds
Shownotes Transcript