Daybreak Weekend: Trump Inauguration, Davos preview, Tariff Threat
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This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors all around the world. And straight ahead on the program, a look ahead to what Donald Trump's campaign promises will mean for the U.S. economy once he's sworn in. I'm Tom Busby in New York. I'm Caroline Hepka in London, where we're looking ahead to the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos. I'm Doug Kristner, looking at how China is gearing up for the incoming Trump administration.

That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. On Bloomberg 1130 New York, Bloomberg 99.1 Washington, D.C., Bloomberg 92.9 Boston, DAB Digital Radio London, Sirius XM 121, and around the world on BloombergRadio.com and the Bloomberg Business App.

Good day to you. I'm Tom Busby, and we begin today's program with the inauguration of Donald Trump as president of the U.S. as he officially takes office for the second time on Monday. For more on what Trump 2.0 means for the U.S. economy and geopolitics in general, we're joined by Joe Matthew, Bloomberg Balance of Power co-host. We'll

Well, Joe, well, let's start with what Donald Trump has promised to do on day one of his new administration, a lineup of executive orders. What are we going to see? Well, it's a long list, Tom. Get your Sharpie out because he's going to be pushing a lot of paper, it sounds like. And you're right. We'll have the inaugural. The process will last a few hours. They have the parade and so forth.

And then Donald Trump moves into the Oval Office, and he's made a lot of promises for day one. It's a little bit difficult to really predict exactly what will be involved in those couple of hours. But we know there will be a series of executive orders, EOs, as they call them,

Here, maybe even exceeding a hundred of them, Tom, they'll be aimed at the border. We've certainly heard that from Donald Trump on the campaign trail. And since the election, the president-elect is promising to shut down the border in his words. And there is a lot of talk in Washington, a lot of reporting that he will invoke Title 42, that COVID era rule that was used to close the border in his first term, something that the Biden administration lifted.

There could be executive orders on mass deportation, of course, something that we've heard a lot about, as he says, on day one, whether it takes effect on day one, we'll see. But beyond that, we could see maybe some things reversing some Biden rules and laws potentially that were passed. They want to strip back at least components, for instance, of the IRA, the Inflation Reduction Act.

And then let's remember the war in Ukraine, Tom. Donald Trump had said all through the campaign that on day one he could do this in the first day, basically with one phone call, get them both in a room and he could get it done to end the war in Ukraine, which would be remarkable. I'm not sure we should expect that, but I would expect to see paper on that and potentially the announcement of a meeting with Vladimir Putin. Well, that's a full house. That's one day. Yeah, that's right. Right. Well, you know, Trump is walking into a pretty good economy.

We saw just last week resilient spending during December. We have a very solid job market, wages up. But conversely, stubbornly high inflation, the housing market, very troubled. You know, I don't know when we're going to get out of that. Rates are above 7 percent now. A lot of income inequality. So what do you think Trump is planning? How will he address those issues?

Well, it's interesting. We were listening to Scott Besson, his pick for Treasury Secretary, in his confirmation hearing just a couple of days ago. And he's going to be the one carrying the message on a lot of this. And we've had a chance to talk with Scott Besson. So we do have a sense of what Donald Trump wants to do. And it begins with, by the way, going back to day one. This is going to be likely another executive order where Donald Trump says, drill, baby, drill, that literally his approach to inflation is

is to get to energy prices. He's had a promise to increase specifically crude oil in terms of supplies by 3 million barrels a day. But overall, he says Drill Baby Drill will lower energy costs by half.

That's a tall order, and it would likely require a weakened economy to see oil and gas prices fall by 50%. But he sees that with energy being the feedstock for our economy as the conduit to lower inflation. Whether that is a real plan, whether it works has yet to be seen because we also know that

that Donald Trump wants to make permanent the so-called Trump tax cuts from 2017 and couple that with across-the-board tariffs. Now, when you put that whole picture together, Scott Besson would say that that mosaic is the antidote to inflation. When you take each one in a vacuum...

most economists would tell you that they are potentially inflationary. And the economists that we have spoken with have been very skeptical of this plan. We're going to find out, Tom, in real time whether it works. Well, especially those tariffs. And, you know, he campaigned on tariffs.

Punishing tariffs, 10 to 20 percent. Our biggest trading partners, Canada and Mexico, 60 percent more on imports from China. Has that softened? I mean, there are reports of maybe a slower rollout than ramping up. That's right. And that was a Bloomberg report.

scoop, by the way. Interesting when you're running how the language changes when you're governing. It's a different world sometimes when you're dealing with the realities and you have world leaders on the phone. We certainly know what the reaction has been from Canada. Very different reaction from Mexico. China's a different matter. And of course, our European allies are too. Everyone's been on the phone with Mar-a-Lago, if not actually traveling there in person for

to talk about this. And yes, it does seem like there could be a phasing, if you will, maybe a couple percent at a time in tariffs, if that's what Donald Trump wants to do. The confusion will be for the Federal Reserve. How do you forecast anything in a world like that, not knowing where tariffs will be month to month, quarter to quarter, when you start factoring in the impact it will have on the economy?

And speaking of the Federal Reserve, in his last administration, very critical to the person he appointed, Jerome Powell. That's right. Do you think his tenor, do you think what he does is going to change in his trumpets?

Trump 2.0? It might be even more aggressive. Keep your eyes on Truth Social and Twitter or whatever platform he decides. You know, we used to wake up every morning to see what the policy was based on what was tweeted at 2 a.m. That may well be the case now. The aforementioned Scott Besant, his likely Treasury secretary, is the one who floated the idea of a shadow president.

Fed share, which would potentially kneecap the current Fed share. I'm not sure that's something that would happen. And I'm not sure that Donald Trump will have the influence he wants to have on Jay Powell. But he is certainly going to be a vocal member of the chorus here when it comes to interest rates.

Oh, you bet. Our thanks to Joe Matthew, Bloomberg Balance of Power co-host, and a lot to look forward to this coming week. We move next to corporate earnings from the streaming giant Netflix out on Tuesday. For more on how that company has been impacted by new content and its foray into live sports, we're joined by Geetha Raghunathan, Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst on U.S. Media. Well, Geetha, let me just start with the results that you expect to see for the fourth quarter from Netflix.

Sure, Tom. So this is actually going to be, you know, in many ways kind of a very, you know, significant quarter for Netflix. And I say that because this is the very last time in their history that they will be reporting subscriber metrics. So it makes it kind of special because as you know, you know, Netflix is really a subscriber story. I think they're actually going to have an extremely strong quarter. They're pricing in one of their best content cycles.

They have had huge pieces of content, a lot of them actually sports related.

that have performed extremely well. And so we think that that will be a huge driver of subscriber ads during the quarter. So consensus right now is close to 9 million, 9 million new subscribers. We're thinking it'll actually go well into the double digits, maybe closer to about 11 to 12 million subscribers. But again, remember this is the last time that they're reporting subscribers. So investors are definitely going to focus on what the next big thing will be. So what are the other metrics that we need to focus on going forward?

So up to double digits. It was five million in the third quarter and this could double that new subscribers. Do you see a lot of that signing up because of the ad supported tier or the paid sharing tier? Oh, absolutely. I think the ad supported tier definitely is accounting for a lot of those new signups. Netflix actually did give us a statistic in the third quarter. They said that it accounts for about 50 percent of

of all of the new signups in the markets where that option is available. So it's definitely, I think, a pretty big success story for Netflix. And of course, the page sharing initiative, which is cracking down on password sharing, has obviously been responsible for the 30 million new subscriber ads that we've seen so far in 2024.

So definitely both those have been huge contributors. But then I think the biggest piece really is the content. Every time you have huge pieces of content, whether it's Mike Tyson versus Jake Paul, whether it's the NFL games or even the second season of Squid Game, which is by far their most watched television series ever, those are all going to be huge drivers of subscriber acquisition.

Well, let's talk about that live sports strategy. A lot of glitches on that fight you mentioned, Tyson, Jake, Paul, but it looks like Netflix figured out what went wrong in time for those NFL games on Christmas Day, right?

Oh, absolutely. So yes, lots of glitches in their, you know, first big, I guess, live events foray. But they have figured it out. You're absolutely right. Because remember, it's not just the NFL games on Christmas Day. They've also been streaming WWE content starting January. So we've already had two Mondays where you've had kind of Netflix takeover, you know, the Raw

programming and it's gone off, I would say fairly well without a glitch. So they definitely have it figured out from a technology perspective and just kind of thinking of the viewership and the numbers we saw some really, really strong numbers. So for the Tyson Paul match, for instance, there were 60 million households across the globe that streamed that event. So close to almost 110 million viewers. That's kind of comparable to the reach of broadcast television.

And then if you take the NFL games, you know, they reported about 26.5 million viewers for each of those games, which is exactly what it was on broadcast television last year. So they've kind of proved that they can replicate the same model, the TV model on a streaming platform.

Now, Netflix already has that deal, that WWE deal with TKO Group. And it looks like they're in the running to secure another of TKO's properties, Ultimate Fighting Championship bouts right now on ESPN, ESPN+. How important would that be for Netflix? Or is it just the next step for them? It could.

It could be very important, Tom, and it definitely is the next step. I mean, remember, ultimately, they are looking to build this business and the new metrics that are going to be really important for them now that subscribers, the number of subscribers is going away, is really going to be revenue growth. So the two numbers that I think investors are going to now be hyper focused on is are they posting double digit revenue growth, so 10 plus percent revenue growth, and are they

posting strong operating income growth. So the number again that we're looking for is 20% plus operating income growth. And for that, it's really important that they have these type of events in order to kind of drive that buzz in order to drive, you know, subscriber numbers, but more importantly for them, advertising is going to become a bigger chunk of revenue and they need to have live events to appeal to advertisers.

And so I absolutely think that they're going to go after it. We already know that UFC is demanding something like a doubling of its current rights fees from ESPN. So we'll see how that goes. But I think Netflix will definitely want to go after that as well. Oh, it's big. And is there any talk of price hikes?

So we have actually been expecting price hikes for quite a while now, so they haven't done anything for over two years, which is really uncharacteristic for Netflix. So a price hike, I would definitely say is overdue in the US, at least on the standard plan, which right now costs $15.50.

It's still a little bit of a wait and watch, but they haven't mentioned anything. But we definitely think it is something that's going to happen in 2025. Well, we'll look for that. Q4 earnings from Netflix out this Tuesday. Our thanks to Geetha Raghunathan, Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst on U.S. Media. And coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, we'll look ahead to the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos. I'm Tom Busby, and this is Bloomberg. ♪

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This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look ahead at the top stories for investors in the coming week. I'm Tom Busby in New York. Up later in our program, a look at whether incoming President Donald Trump will make good on his threats regarding China. But first, leaders from across the globe descending on the sleepy Swiss mountain resort of Davos.

for the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum this week. It's where the world's most powerful meet to address the pressing issues of the day. And this year, conflict is at the top of the agenda, with war anxiety racking the nerves of experts surveyed ahead of discussions. For more, let's go to London and bring in Bloomberg Daybreak Europe anchor Caroline Hepker.

State-based armed conflict is the biggest worry for this year. That's according to the World Economic Forum's 2025 Global Risks Report, which has been released ahead of the organisation's elite gathering in Davos. The findings provide the mood music for an event where world leaders mingle with business executives, among a total tally of some 3,000 participants.

But that grim assessment of global security evident in the report suggests that any sense of safety provided by the thousands of Swiss police and military personnel patrolling in freezing temperatures outside can't be taken for granted elsewhere. Worries about geopolitical instability are followed by concerns about extreme weather events and the prevalence of misinformation and disinformation.

So it looks like it's going to be a pretty sombre gathering with some serious issues brought to the table. I've been speaking to Bloomberg's Germana Bessecci about what else we can expect from Davos 2025.

Well, you talk about dusting off my warm clothes. I'll definitely have to dust off my warm clothes coming from Dubai. But look, Davos is the World Economics Forum's most well-known event. It's an annual meeting that takes place in the Swiss Alps. Typically, it's a forum for debate, for dialogue, to discuss some of the biggest issues of the day and to think about some of the solutions to these problems. So every year they set a theme. The theme for this year is a call for collaboration in the intelligent age. That is the title of this year's forum.

And I think the clue is in the title. On one hand, there's a lot of excitement about this intelligent age, the huge technological advances the world is witnessing, like artificial intelligence, smart energy solutions. But then also that word collaboration is perhaps a nod to the fact that some of the world's existing multilateral order has broken down because of rising geopolitical tensions, a fracturing of global trust, fragmentation, and the climate crisis.

There's always so much attention on the guest list on who turns up to the World Economic Forum, as well as what they say. Who do you think is going to be there? What leaders are confirmed? Yeah, well, typically, you see a fair share of world leaders, business leaders, academics, even heads of NGOs and celebrities actually tend to tend to come to Davos. And for that reason, it's been criticized as becoming a bit of a talking shop for the top 1% of the world's elites. But this year,

What we do know is that Donald Trump, so the new U.S. president who steps into office on Monday, will actually be delivering a virtual speech on Thursday via a live video link. So that will be widely awaited. Ursula von der Leyen will be there, the president of the European Commission. Even the vice premier of China will be attending. Olaf Scholz, who's facing his fair share of domestic issues, will also be attending. Interestingly enough, Frederick Merz, who is the opportunity

opposition candidate into the general elections, will also be attending Davos. So you've got to think about the type of audience that he's targeting there. Javier Millet will be attending Argentinian president, riding on a high after a quite successful year of instituting economic reforms.

And then from the Middle East, you have the prime minister of the Palestinian National Authority, which will be interesting given the latest developments. You also have the prime minister and minister of foreign affairs from the state of Qatar. And then beyond that, Zelensky will be attending, president of Ukraine. So a bit of a mixed bag and people from all around the world will be there. Hmm.

But then does that imply that there'll be much discussion about war and inroads in terms of creating peace? Any precedent for that?

Absolutely. There isn't a precedent for sure historically, but war will be the top of the agenda this year. And every year into the event, they put out a top risks report. And this year, war is actually the top worry here.

on the list of things that experts have been flagging as potential risks into 2025. So state-based armed conflict is the most pressing immediate concern, given what a tumultuous year 2024 was, not just in terms of the many elections that took place, but of course, in terms of the many conflicts that are taking place around the world and the

ongoing conflict, of course, between Ukraine and Russia, but perhaps slightly more positive steps with the announcement of that ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. Although also extreme weather events were singled out as a concern for WEF participants. And this is perhaps ushering in

quite a new era in terms of the global economy and views on climate change. Yeah, absolutely. And so you mentioned the global economy. WEF into these events, they typically put out the risk report, but then they also put out the economic outlook for 2025.

56% of the economists surveyed expect weaker global economic conditions, again, weighed down by concerns of fragmentation, economic fragmentation, the rise in protectionism, espoused by potentially, of course, the new U.S. administration, rising debt, and political uncertainty. And then to add to that, over the medium-term horizon, the risks,

from emanating from the climate crisis always feature on the medium-term and long-term concerns that come up in these reports. And this is a year where we've spoken about this as one of the hottest years on records. In fact, it was actually the hottest year on records. And we're still looking at the devastation caused by, say, the wildfires.

in LA, lots of those events have been happening with increasing amount of frequency and with increasing intensity, one and will continue to be one of the pertinent issues discussed at the World Economic Forum. My thanks to Bloomberg's Jumana Basetchi. So the risks associated with global conflict are set to take centre stage in Davos in the next few days.

With interstate relationships being so pivotal this year, will diplomacy be crucial? Catherine Ashton, the former EU foreign affairs chief, has been speaking to us about how countries can understand each other better this year. She's been speaking to Bloomberg's Francine Lacroix. I think we've had some sort of messages. We know that he's very interested in playing cards.

a role in stopping wars, let's put it simply. That of course applies to what's happening in Ukraine. But the relationship with Putin is not straightforward and President Putin does not do what other people tell him to do. So I see a sense that they might be moving away from suggesting that could be done very quickly.

And he's obviously going to get a lot of pressure within Congress as well from Ukraine not to just give this away, not to be somebody who seemed to be in Putin's side. And then we've seen some extraordinary statements about Greenland, Canada and so on.

But, you know, he's the master of getting the headline. He's the master of saying something or not saying something in the case of would you use military force against Greenland? You know, the idea that he and Denmark are going to war doesn't seem realistic. But by not saying that, it's set off a whole set of issues. And it feels like these are almost a little bit of a distraction from the main issue.

elements of the foreign policy that he's going to have to put in place, of which China's clearly going to be key, but also what he wants to do on Ukraine and Russia and, of course, in the Middle East too. You've spent your whole career actually dealing with either unreadable or tricky personalities, foreign, of course, statespeople. What's the right way of dealing with Donald Trump right now? I spend quite a bit of time with some of his foreign policy people in what we now call Trump One.

And that was really interesting because it's a combination of people who've got years of experience. I may disagree with them on how they do something, but you can see the sense of direction. I think this time we'll see things slightly differently. It will be much more, I think, clear early on

where he's trying to get to, and a lot of his work will be domestic. So on foreign policy issues, what I would say to anybody is listen to what he says, because he says what he means at that point, and he often continues to mean it. Look at what the realistic elements of what he's saying are, and that's especially going to be important as everybody gets very nervous about tariffs.

but also finding ways that you can build the foreign policy commitments, for example, with NATO. I don't think that he'll pull out of NATO, but I think he is going to pressure for more money to be spent by European countries. And to be fair to him, he's been incredibly successful in achieving what previous presidents have failed to do, which is getting European countries to pay more. There's the added complexity of Elon Musk.

He's an advisor to Donald Trump. We understand he'll have an office in the White House or close to the White House.

And he's attacking, including the Prime Minister, but he's attacking foreign actors. He's supporting some, for example, of the far right in Germany. What's the right way to deal with him? Well, he's obviously going to be an important player in the Trump administration, at least for now. Whether he will decide to stay long term will partly depend, I think, on where his other interests lie. I always think with anyone who is playing a key role, you have to look at what their motivation might be. And I think for Mr. Musk...

He's primarily a businessman and so some of the things that he's saying are I think relevant to how he sees not just his business but the world he's in, whether it's artificial intelligence, robotic space and so on, as being really important. So when he says to NASA, "You shouldn't focus on the moon, you should focus on Mars,"

That's a fair point from his perspective. You know, so some of this is about business. Other, I think, will be about his own opinions. What's the right way of the UK in dealing with this? We've always had that sort of bridge effect, really, that the relationship with the US is a long-term, ongoing, special relationship that

that I think the outgoing US ambassador described as the essential relationship. And they'll be very keen to keep that, but to keep it within a framework that actually means we're going to be economically benefiting, politically benefiting. So there'll be a big move to...

to work with colleagues in NATO on defence security and I think with Europe. And there's a whole raft of stuff that, from defence and security right the way through to environmental, climate change and so on, where there is a lot of what you might call common cause to be made that will be different to America's direction of travel, certainly under the president, where the business chooses a different path is another thing.

So it'll be about a balancing act. And I think the only way you can approach this is stay calm, keep moving, do the stuff behind the scenes, because I'm a huge believer that most of it happens behind the scenes that we never see and shouldn't see. And not get too...

distressed or kind of turned away from your objectives because of what's happening that seems to be incredibly newsworthy. But actually it's just a lot of rhetoric that's going on in the background.

That was the former EU Foreign Affairs Chief Catherine Ashton speaking to Francine Lacroix on Bloomberg Television. Now we will have full coverage of the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos live on Bloomberg Radio and TV. I'm Caroline Hepka here in London and you can catch us every weekday morning for Bloomberg Daybreak Europe beginning at 6am in London. That's 1am on Wall Street. Tom.

Thank you, Caroline. And coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, a look at what a Donald Trump presidency will mean for U.S.-China relations. I'm Tom Busby, and this is Bloomberg.

I'm Alpine skier, Michaela Schifrin. I've won the most World Cup ski races in history. But what does success mean to me? Success means discipline. It's teamwork. It's the drive and passion inside of us that comes before all recognition. And it's why Stiefel is one of the fastest growing global wealth management firms in the country. If you're looking for success, surround yourself with the people who will get you there. It's

At Stiefel, we invest everything into our advisors so they can invest everything into their clients. That means direct access to one of the industry's largest equity research franchises and a leading middle market investment bank. And it's why Stiefel has won the J.D. Power Award for Employee Advisor Satisfaction two years in a row.

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This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look ahead at the top stories for investors in the coming week. I'm Tom Busby in New York. With his swearing in right around the corner, will Donald Trump make good on his campaign threats toward China once he takes office? For a closer look, let's get to the host of the Daybreak Asia podcast, Doug Krisner.

Tom, let's start with a recollection. It was back in October when then Republican nominee Donald Trump sat down with Bloomberg News editor-in-chief John Micklethwaite. Here's part of that conversation. I told them, and I said it publicly, they're not going to sell one car into the United States. I said, if I run this country, if I'm going to be president of this country, I'm going to put a 100, 200, 2,000 percent tariff. They're not going to sell one car into the United States.

Because we're not going to destroy our country. Because I know you're an anti-tariff guy, but I'm the exact opposite. If I had, there was no other way I could have stopped them, other than, what am I going to do, negotiate with Mexico, with China? You're not going to get anything from them?

I said I'm going to put a 100, 200 or 300, I'm going to put the highest tariff in history, meaning I'm going to stop them from ever selling a car in two nights. President Trump, I'll let you give your example. You talked a lot about tariffs. You look at the American economy, 40 million jobs rely on trade. It accounts for 27% of GDP. If you cut that off, that's also going to have an effect on many, many business people here. Tariffs also have another side.

Isn't that something that you have to acknowledge? You could be plunging America into the biggest trade war since Smoot-Hawley. But there are no tariffs. You're going to stop. There are tariffs already at the moment. No, there are no tariffs. All you have to do is build your plant in the United States and you don't have any tariffs. People, a lot of places like this, there are a lot of jobs that rely on foreigners coming here. You're going to basically stop.

Trade with China you're talking about 60% trade on that 60 plant tariffs on that you're talking as you said 100 200 percent on things you don't really like you're also talking about 20 10 20 percent tariffs on the rest of the world that is going to have a serious effect on the overall economy and yes, you're going to find some people who would gain from individual tariffs the overall effect could be Massive I agree. It's gonna have a massive effect positive effect. I

That's Donald Trump there in conversation with Bloomberg News editor-in-chief John Micklethwaite. Now, Mr. Trump's hardline approach to China is no secret. He has vowed to be tough and enact hefty tariffs. Now, those rates could potentially be as high as 60%.

And the president-elect is likely to maintain strict export controls on AI-related technology to prevent China's access. Curiously, Trump has touted a friendly relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping. And Trump has also taken a laissez-faire stance on Taiwan.

So how is Beijing preparing for a second Trump administration? To help explore that, I'm joined now by John Liu, Bloomberg executive editor for Greater China. John, joining from our studios in Beijing. Thank you so much for making time. I'm sure it's been busy for you, as it has been for us stateside. So leaders in China know Trump, John. They've dealt with him before. I'm curious to get your take on how things may change in the years ahead.

I think that there is a familiarity with Trump. I think the question is how will he roll out some of these promises that he has made during the campaign, the 60% tariffs that you talked about already.

I think there is a preparation in Beijing. We see that when it comes to new laws in terms of how the government can limit exports of key metals, other technologies such as battery technologies. I think that is a sign of the Chinese government ready to punch back if and when the Trump administration does push back.

punch. It's interesting that they use that metaphor because I'm wondering whether this is going to be a fight or whether it's going to be kind of more of a negotiation where they're looking both sides are looking to strike deals. I think there's a broad thinking in Beijing that Trump is less ideologically driven and more driven by the desire to get a deal. And if that is the assumption, then I think a

a lot of these tariffs, a lot of this tough talk is a negotiating tactic to try and improve the position that Trump is in when he goes to the table, when he sits across from Xi Jinping, and they try and hash out a deal. Marco Rubio has been nominated to be Secretary of State, and back in 2021, he authored the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act. And do you expect human rights to be at all a part of the conversation between Beijing and Washington?

I think Mr. Rubio, many of his positions are different from those that President Trump has. And I think it'll one of the many interesting things to watch is how that works itself out. I do think that as far as human rights go, if it does strengthen Trump's hand at the negotiating table, I think they will be a factor.

Whether or not that is human rights is something that he's not willing to negotiate on I don't think that they are and so

If you were to give up some of these issues that Rubio finds to be core in his view of American policy, then that will be very interesting how it plays out. It's interesting because we have seen that China has already begun to reposition itself in other parts of Southeast Asia, in Latin America, even in the Mideast in recent years. And I'm wondering whether that's

preemptive, that there's already a feeling that they're going to have to reduce maybe reliance on the United States to a great degree?

I think partly it is that. Partly it is China trying to make sure it has access to other markets if it's going to be shut out of the United States. The other part of that, actually, I think is, you know, as we've seen already with Trump's promises of tariffs against Canada, against Mexico, the issues that he has with NATO, that during the Trump administration, there is...

there's a lot of fractiousness between the United States and its allies. And that actually gives China a chance to make friends abroad that may not have been there under the Biden administration. That's interesting, too, because the Biden administration, I think we can agree, took a multilateral approach in dealing with China in a way that during the first Trump administration, it was more unilateral. Will that change in your view going forward?

I would expect President Trump to continue to act in a very America first way. Right. I think he's made that very clear.

I think the Chinese, having seen what the first administration did in terms of American allies, I think the Chinese see an opportunity to strengthen their relationships in Asia, in Europe, in other locations around the world if Trump is going to be fighting tariff wars left and right. We can debate the state of the Chinese economy, whether or not a bottom has kind of been put in and things are beginning to improve.

One of the powerhouses clearly has been the export part of the Chinese economy. Tariffs obviously would threaten that. Is that a major concern on the part of leaders in China? I think it's definitely a major concern for Beijing. There's a lot of worry that if tariffs come in right away, it really saps the ability of the export engine to help Beijing.

prop up economic growth here at home, that that will result in things getting much, much more difficult for Xi Jinping and his government to try to work out. They will have less time. I mean, the push right now is Beijing is trying to retune the economy so that it's more dependent on consumption. The problem is the consumer is not spending. And if they don't have exports, it's not going to give them as much time as they would like to try and fix that problem. So having said that, is the...

position in China a little bit more vulnerable right now? And is the Trump administration, the incoming Trump administration, aware of that to the degree that it would seek to take advantage of that vulnerability? I think the Trump administration, I would have to imagine, is aware of the situation that China finds itself in economically. And the domestic economy being weak puts China at more of a disadvantage when it comes to negotiations.

At the same time, I think China realizes that, but it also has some bottom lines that it's not going to cross, these red lines that it's not going to give up things. We talked about Taiwan before, sovereignty issues. They're not going to undermine those issues to get a better trade deal. What about access to high technology? I indicated earlier that

It's likely that Trump would maintain the level of export controls that were put in place by the Biden administration, which is essentially keeping China's access to certain components for AI kind of restricted in a major way. And that may be holding back the development of certain technologies in China. Is this something that Beijing is expecting when it comes to

of artificial intelligence, whether it's kind of software or whether it's hardware like a chip? I think this is an area that's a little more unclear. The

The Biden administration has made it very crystal clear they've got this small yard, high fence approach to China policy, limiting Chinese access to technology. Trump during the campaign, when he's talked about China, it's been much more about trade, about the trade surplus.

He has not had as much of an emphasis on technology. For example, he's in support of allowing TikTok to stay. Obviously, he would like to see it in American hands, not in Chinese hands. But it just sort of shows there's a slight difference when it comes to technology. So I think the interesting question is when a negotiation happens, how likely would it be that Trump might

on technology access in exchange for more Chinese buying of American agriculture, for example. When it comes to high technology, and I'm thinking in particular of advanced semiconductors, it's all about Taiwan Semi. We know that. When it comes to the U.S.,

being able to support through arms sales the government in Taiwan. Is that something that you believe the Trump administration will continue as happened during the Biden administration? Or will we see a shift in that slightly?

I think it's most likely going to continue. I think it'll continue because you have people like Marco Rubio who will be at the State Department and they will continue to support those actions, arms sales to Taiwan to help Taiwan defend itself against any potential aggression that might come from China.

But I think it's also very clear that Trump is much less interventionist when it comes to using American military power abroad. And so that makes it a much more nuanced relationship, and it makes it much more difficult for Taiwan to try and figure out how much they can depend on Washington if things get hairy. What about the relationship that China has with Russia right now? I'm thinking about how that's impacted war in Ukraine. Trump has said that he would like to end that conflict immediately.

Do you believe that China will play any type of role in that? I think the key players in this are Kiev and Moscow, certainly. I think the Chinese would very, very much like the war to end. It has been a big detriment to the Chinese relationship with Europe and China's relationship with lots of other countries who see this aggression from Russia and are themselves fearful of

I think if China, any role that China can play on getting a peace deal done, it will do that. Although I do not think they are willing to exert overwhelming pressure on Russia to come to the table. John, we'll leave it there. Thank you so much for helping us preview

what relations may look like between Beijing and Washington under a second Trump administration. John Liu there, executive editor for Greater China, joining from our studios in Beijing. I'm Doug Krisner, and you can catch us weekdays here for the Daybreak Asia podcast. It's available wherever you get your podcast. Tom?

Thank you, Doug. And that does it for this edition of Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. Join us again Monday morning at 5 a.m. Wall Street time for the latest on markets overseas and the news you need to start your day. I'm Tom Busby. Stay with us. Top stories and global business headlines are coming up right now. ♪

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