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cover of episode Special Report: Global Market Selloff Easing with Mike Wilson and Mohamed El-Erian

Special Report: Global Market Selloff Easing with Mike Wilson and Mohamed El-Erian

2025/3/11
logo of podcast Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition

Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
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Mohamed El-Erian
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Mike Wilson: 我认为没有人知道市场是否已经触底，但周五市场守住了200日均线，随后又迅速回吐，这表明情况可能并不乐观。今年上半年市场表现疲软，部分原因是公司盈利预期下调，特别是大型科技股由于人工智能资本支出放缓而导致盈利预期下调。贸易政策和关税也对市场造成负面影响。我们预计市场可能在月底企稳，因为美元走弱，利率下降。我们不认为减税会立即影响盈利预期，因为这些减税是现有减税的延续。政府规模缩小可能最终利好私营经济，但需要时间才能看到效果。经济硬着陆的风险存在，但目前还不是主要担忧。美联储可能在经济恶化时采取行动，但不会直接针对股市。目前我们建议客户持有大型优质股票，并采取防御性策略。 Mohamed El-Erian: 目前市场走势难以预测，因为存在复杂的市场技术面和政策不确定性。市场对特朗普政府的刺激政策预期过高，实际情况是先实施关税等政策，减税等其他政策会晚些时候实施。市场需要适应政策实施的阶段性过程。美国经济的优势之一是可预测性和法治，而这正受到质疑。商界人士需要政策清晰度，而不是政策本身。投资者正在将资金转向美国以外的资产。美联储将采取观望态度，等待政策不确定性消退。美联储对2%通胀目标的执着存在风险，在当前全球经济环境下，2%的通胀目标可能不再合适。通胀预期正在上升，市场对美联储的目标感到困惑。美国经济增长放缓，通胀上升，可能出现滞胀。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter analyzes the recent market downturn, exploring whether the current market recovery is sustainable or merely a temporary rebound. Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson offers insights into the factors contributing to the sell-off, including decelerating AI CapEx and negative earnings revisions. He discusses potential catalysts for a market turnaround and advises on investment strategies.
  • Market held 200-day moving average on Friday but quickly gave it back
  • Earnings revisions have been rolling over for several months, led by big tech growth stocks
  • AI CapEx story is decelerating
  • Growth story deteriorating, market adjusted quickly
  • Potential for earnings revision stabilization later in the month
  • Focus on areas with positive earnings revisions (financial, software, consumer services, media & entertainment)
  • Punishing areas with bad revisions (materials, energy, small-cap, consumer goods)
  • No anticipation of tax cuts impacting estimates soon
  • Potential for "Trump call" leading to long-term benefits via government shrinking and private sector liberation
  • Risk of hard landing, but more damage needed; market reaction is reflexive
  • Fed put exists but is tied to growth risk, not stock market
  • Current portfolio focus on large cap, quality, defensive stocks

Shownotes Transcript

Bloomberg's Nathan Hager breaks down the recent market volatility with Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson and Bloomberg Opinion contributor Mohamed El-Erian.

 Global stocks steadied from a selloff and US stock futures signaled a Wall Street bounce, as Bloomberg News reported President Donald Trump will meet with top business executives later in the day. Contracts for the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.5% after the index’s deepest slump since 2022, while those on the S&P 500 climbed 0.4%. Tesla Inc. shares rose in premarket trading after Monday’s 15% slide while other tech names including Nvidia Corp. also edged higher. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index was steady while earlier, Asian shares bounced off an intraday five-week low.There was relief for other risk assets too, as Bitcoin stabilized after a five-day selloff and oil prices notched a small bounce from Monday’s drop. However, concerns over the once unstoppable resilience of the US economy continue to support Treasury markets, with 10-year yields edging lower again on Tuesday. The dollar index slid 0.3%.

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