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Bloomberg Surveillance TV: June 12, 2025
2025/6/12
Bloomberg Surveillance
A
Adam Posen
F
Frances Donald
L
Lindsay Rosner
N
Norman Roule
Frances Donald: 我认为关税的影响需要几个月才能显现，因为我们之前看到的大量库存尚未受到关税的影响。此外，通货膨胀不仅仅是关税的故事，还与紧张的劳动力市场、富裕的消费者和政府支出等结构性因素有关。虽然总体工资增长超过了通货膨胀，但低收入和中等收入美国人的通胀压力更大，因为他们的消费更多集中在价格上涨较多的领域。预测GDP主要关注高收入家庭，但这与对美国经济和人民的最佳选择是不同的。我认为美联储的灵活性不足，需要关注通胀的不同指标，因为经济和价格将出现分化，这将使美联储的工作变得复杂。关税对经济的影响存在不确定性，但可能对CPI产生重大影响，美联储应关注潜在趋势。经济中存在K型复苏、大规模政府支出和电力网络问题等，这些都与贸易和关税无关。我认为关税只是表面现象，即使目前波动性最大，也不是核心问题。
Deep Dive
This chapter analyzes the current state of the US economy, focusing on inflation, the labor market, and the Federal Reserve's response. Experts discuss whether the recent decline in inflation is temporary or a sign of a broader economic slowdown, considering factors such as tariffs, demographics, and government spending.
- Recent inflation data shows a decline, but it's too early to declare victory.
- The labor market is gradually softening, but not at an alarming rate.
- Underlying inflation is driven by structural forces like demographics and government spending, not just tariffs.
- The Fed has limited flexibility and needs to consider the divergent nature of the economy.
- Tariffs have a significant impact on inflation, but underlying trends are more important.
Shownotes Transcript