Equity Optimism amid Uncertainty
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Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 7 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. It's a thrill to have Ben Laidler with us over the years with Bloomberg.

HSBC and others now with Bradesco BBI adding equity strategy value each and every day. Ben, I just did the math here. I can do this off the Bloomberg Professional Service.

17.5% per year from Christmas Eve 2018. I think a Gartman on gold in yen. There's Laidler on get into the market now, Christmas Eve of 2018. Recapitulate that call now. Are you as bullish now as you were then or is there a different cast to it?

definitely bullish equities, just maybe less bullish US equities. I mean, obviously, it's been a sort of juggernaut since then. We've just had a 20% reminder in the last couple of months of why you shouldn't bet against US equities. But I do think this bull market is sort of broadening out. I do think the

sort of genies out of the bottle a little bit this year. We got very crowded on sort of how big US was. Positioning got very crowded. I think that was what drove us a little bit into this sell-off we had. And I think the rest of the world now gets a bit of a look in. I think this is the healthy broadening. You have a double discount in the rest of the world, cheap currencies, cheap equity valuations, and some positive prospects

a policy, whether that's fiscal stimulus out of China or Germany. So bullish on equities. I'm looking for a more average U.S. return from here, but and stronger returns in the rest of the world. So we did see that move, as you mentioned, into the rest of the world earlier this year out of the U.S. My question is, was that a short term trade, the smart money just trying to be smart? Or is that something different, do you think?

Well, you certainly have history against you on that trade. I mean, the rest of the world's underperformed for 15 years. So I feel like I'm standing in front of this sort of US freight train. But these things do move in cycles. And I do just think that the genie is out of the bottle a little bit on the US. I mean, the US is 65% of global equities. It's 25% of global GDP. I do a lot of LATAM, right? LATAM, 7% of global GDP. It's 70 basis points of global market cap, right? And you have that now.

in the rest of the world. So I do think a little bit of love goes a very long way. You do have this double currency and equity discount. And I don't need to be very right. And I do just think that, you know, the sell-off we've had in the U.S. has at least sensitized people to the risks they're running in the U.S. on 20 times earning 65% of global market cap. And I think you get a little bit of reallocation to the rest of the world regardless. You mentioned LATAM. I know in your previous life, you spent a lot of time looking at the Latin American market.

Where do you see opportunities today in Latin America? So Brazil is the cheapest market in the world. Brazil is the cheapest market in the world. I think any way you look at it, 7% dividend yield, 8 times PE, highest real interest rates in the world. As I say, a fraction the size of GDP. A little bit of reallocation goes a very long way. But is it a value trap? Well, it certainly has been for a long time. I think...

Again, we're about to get maybe rate cuts coming in Brazil at the end of the year, which I think will begin to bring those real rates down, allow those P multiples to rise. And I think more broadly, across Brazil, across emerging markets, there are no tourists left, right? There's no one out there telling you that, you know, this has been a great place to be. So again, I think a little bit of reallocation and this asset class that people have forgotten about for 15 years could come back. The magic of your career, Ben, is an incredible respect for

that corporations adjust, life goes on. I want you to discuss the onslaught of market timing, go to cash, opinionated punditry that our listeners and viewers hear each and every day. They're overwhelmed with do this, do that, and you just say, shut up and believe in capitalism. So turn the radio off and do nothing? No, that's not the way we roll here.

But yes, there's definitely a larger city in your hands are doing nothing. And I don't want to, you know, I don't want to be down on the US here. I mean, this is not an anti-US trade. This is just more average double digit US returns, not the, you know, this juggernaut of riskless, feeling riskless 20% a year. You know, tech just delivered three times the earnings growth of the S&P 500.

on 25, 30 times earnings, that seems pretty good to me. Can it get dramatically more than that? You know, no, maybe not. But I certainly wouldn't want to be betting against that. And you've just had that in the last quarter. Well, we've had, I mean, since most of our listeners and viewers can remember, tech has been the narrative of the US stock market. Is that still the case, do you think? I think so. I

As I say, they're delivering the goods. You have three times the earnings growth of anyone else in the S&P 500. Valuations have derated. You're not paying three times the multiple of the S&P 500 for these stocks. So I can absolutely make the case for owning them. I'm just arguing that you're not going to get the degree of outperformance that you've had in recent years. And that gives the rest of the world and other sectors, you know, maybe a look in that they haven't had.

we welcome all of you across the nation on an eventful monday futures up eight right now doubt futures of 45 a constructive tape here into that key inflation report on wednesday in less than an hour a conversation an extended conversation with andrew cuomo the former governor of the empire state he has chosen to run for mayor we've been interviewing the different may world candidates in this uh really heated uh

primary of the Democratic Party towards the November 4 election. We'll do that here in about 50 minutes. Ben Laidler with us here with Bradesco BBI. We welcome all of you across the nation. Sirius XM, Apple CarPlay. It's Apple Day today. Ed Lovell didn't sleep this weekend. He's all set to go. There's Apple Day today and all the busy week ahead. Paul? Absolutely. Ben,

So how do we think about just valuation in this market here in the U.S.? We've had this, boy, a big 20% decline. We've retraced most of that here. Yes, we had a good first quarter earnings, but earnings estimates for 2025 have come down. Is this an expensive market once again?

I have no problem with these multiples. I guess I have a problem arguing that they're going to go a lot higher. You are on 21 times earnings. That's still above short and long-term averages. It's still the most expensive market in the world. I think that's justified by these double-digit earnings numbers. I have a problem arguing that it's going to be dramatically higher than that, which is why I say, US is fine, but we're looking at a more average 10% return, which feels terrible when we got used to 20, but it's actually fine.

Scott Cronert emails in from Citigroup right now. He's got with his mid, it's mid-year. It's on American. How is Cronert doing mid-year here? It doesn't feel like mid-year. Definitely Ben Laidler would have done it. Exactly. He goes up, they go to 6,300 on SPX with a mid-26 first take of a below Laidler 6,500. I'm afraid to ask Ben Laidler, middle of next year, where is your SPX? Can you give me a 7,000?

I think we can get reasonably close. What's that? That's, you know, 15, 10, 15% from here. Again, I think we're going back to average. Average is good. It's just not what we've got used to in the last couple of years. Ben, talk to us about the earnings out there, because I feel like the Fed's not going to do a whole lot for us, maybe one or two rate cuts in the foreseeable future.

So I think I need earnings to really move this market higher. 7% earning growth this year, maybe 11%, 12% next year. Are those numbers solid, or do you think there's risk to those numbers? Or maybe even upside, I don't know. Yeah, I think they're reasonably solid. I think what we've lived through is this recession scare. I don't think we're going to get a recession. I do think we're going to get more pedestrian growth. But to Tom's earlier point, you know,

The survivorship bias here, the stocks that we're looking at are the best in class. They are global. There's a reason why year after year they've been able to push up margins. They're just very good at what they do. So I wouldn't want to bet against corporate America. I think

sort of normalized growth they're going to be at it dr s out on live chat on youtube thank you for the live chat on youtube really smart subscribe to bloomberg podcast uh there to ben ladler he says look anything over 13 times is expensive when we buy a 28 times apple or whatever

Are we just rationalizing out the terminal value out farther where we're saying we're willing to own Apple and we really don't care about the next 24 months? We're buying it for 2028? As I say, forget about the future. Just look at what you've delivered in the last quarter. Three times the earnings growth, the S&P 500. 32 times earnings versus eight-ish is the numbers we're working. It's amazing.

I think you can justify current valuations. I'm not sure you can justify much higher, which I guess is my point for a more average US return. I totally agree on the 13 times. 13 times is what you pay for the rest of the world. That's why I'm sort of bullish on the rest of the world. Again, a little bit of...

A little bit of love goes a very long way. Maybe you just need a little bit less bad news and you get the valuation rewriting. You've already had that valuation rewriting in the US. To your point, you need earnings to keep delivering. I think they are. But how do you get more upside in the US when valuations are high and earnings are already reasonably high? What screens well for you guys this year? I mean, that probably has changed two or three times this year, given we've had, we started the year to shoot low, we sold off 20%, we've regained most of that. What screens well for you guys these days?

Again, the rest of the world, I think, is where you get the risk reward. Growth is firming up. Interest rates have been cut. You're getting some fiscal stimulus. And again, you're pushing on an open door because currencies are cheap and valuations are cheap. And you're getting, again, you don't need a lot of money coming out of the US because the US has just got so supersized. These other markets have got so small, you know, a little bit of fairy dust. And I think that's the driver of this rest of the world outperformance. And again, I only need to be half right there.

I'm not betting against the US, I'm just arguing it's a more average 10% environment. To finish, Ben, and this goes to your parchment from London School of Economics and under the University of Cambridge, I think all of our listeners and viewers in America look at the cacophony of the United Kingdom right now and go, what? And I'm talking about in newspapers, they can't fund the police.

A week ago, 10 days ago, it was migrants across the channel, the election dynamics of labor, reform. In the United Kingdom, is there a point out there to get to, to some form of economic post-Brexit stability and growth? Cool. Big question. I'm not going to do this justice in 30 seconds. I don't know. At least the sun shines. No, I don't know. It's a...

At least it's priced for that, I guess is my point. The trouble in the UK is UK stocks have really nothing to do with the UK. 70% of UK stock market revenues come from outside the UK. So in some ways, UK companies have sort of voted with their feet a long time ago and plays on the rest of the world. But my broader point, if you are on 11, 12 times earnings, which is what UK stocks are, you don't need good news.

You just need a little bit less bad news. And I don't want to be down in the UK, but I think that's probably the narrative. You know, everybody is negative on the UK emerging market. I mean, the same goes internationally. I think this is just a broader narrative. We just end up with, you know, a little bit less bad news, things re-rate. Ben Laidler, we don't care. The only reason you're here is a transition from clay to grass. Can Coco do as well at Wimbledon as she did at the French Open?

- We're talking cricket here? - No, we don't do cricket. I tried cricket with John Riding eight years ago. No, the tennis. I mean, it was really exciting to see Coco take Roland Garros. - Summer sports in the UK, that's something you definitely don't want to bet against. - Exactly. - Ben Laynwood, this is a joy. Can you be in studio more often? - Yeah. - Talk to Bradesco. - I'll bring the Bloomberg jet over. - How often do you get to Brazil for Bradesco? - Once a quarter.

Once a quarter, every 10 minutes. Really interesting. Ben Laidler, thank you, thank you so much. Really one of the iconic calls in the history of Bloomberg surveillance on a lonely December 24th of 2018. He whispered, Tom, bye America. Ben Laidler, thank you so much.

If this government spending in defense goes towards things like R&D that have dual-use civilian purposes, you could get spillovers that actually end up enhancing productivity in Europe and so have a more long-lasting impact on growth.

To learn more about the intersection of national security and global trade, subscribe to PGM's The Outthinking Investor in your favorite podcast app.

Thrivent can help you plan your finances for the people, causes, and community you love. What makes Thrivent different? Financial services and generosity programs are combined to help you build a financial roadmap for the future while also creating opportunities to give back along the way. Visit Thrivent.com to learn more. Thrivent, where money means more.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube. We're going to do something different here with Henrietta Trays, the Veda Partners. Henrietta, I want to note the surprise in an Omaha mayoral race.

This weekend, the surprise in a San Antonio mayoral race. There seems to be a trend afoot. And I want to bring it back to the mystery of Hakeem Jeffries is a potential leader of the Democratic Party nationally. Is that possible that the gentleman from New York and from New York City would be the party leader?

I wouldn't say it's just possible. I'd say it's quite likely. Ordinarily, when you have one chamber control, one party control all three chambers of Congress, you switch 25 seats in the House of Representatives in any cycle. That goes in both directions, Democrats and Republicans. And what happens is Americans tend to vote for change and then they don't like it when they get it.

So when you have one party control like we have right now with the Republicans and President Trump in office, we've seen how the president galvanizes the Democratic base, gets turnout to go through the roof in a midterm election cycle. And so I very much expect what happened in 2018 to happen here again next November. And that's what Republicans will start to pivot to as we start next year. Why are the Democrats winning in Omaha, San Antonio, and percolating in other areas as well?

That one was fascinating in Omaha as well. You know, they've been trying to unseat the incumbent Republican for four straight cycles. So that came as, you know, a huge thing to cheer for the Democratic Party. And they're going to continue to try to do that. I think Rahm Emanuel made some really good points over the weekend. You know, he's obviously telegraphing that he might run for president. But

Have a targeted campaign. Go after individual seats and races that you think you can win with a well-known candidate in that particular district, however small it is, and whether it's in San Antonio or Nebraska, go for it.

henrietta we've seen some news coming out over the weekend from los angeles as it relates to immigration deportations uh and and then protests uh and that president ordering the national guard into los angeles how is all of this broader immigration policy from president trump which has been very effective from from his perspective and very quick in terms of implementation how's that playing on capitol hill and in d.c

I'm glad you asked. I was actually with some former members of Republican leadership at a conference we were all speaking at a few weeks back. And one of the remarks that really stuck with me was a sentiment from a former Speaker of the House, a Republican member, saying the trouble with the president's immigration agenda is that he was too successful too quickly. And it's interesting to look at the data. There's been a complete shutoff of flow of migrants.

at the southern border. And the president was just extraordinarily effective in getting his close the borders tactics in place. And what that did, and we saw just before the situation in L.A. erupted, is that immigration had receded as a major focus of conversation on Capitol Hill. And we'd lost sight of the fact that this one big, beautiful bill includes $175 billion just for the Judiciary Committee, which is immigration enforcement, to roll out over the next couple of years.

And I think what the dynamic in L.A. does is it shifts the narrative away from Medicaid cuts, Medicare cuts, SNAP cuts, the deficit increases and positions it squarely where there is going to be a concerted focus and new legislation this week.

from the United States Senate Judiciary Committee on exactly these immigration issues. So it gives an opening for the president to revert back to something that he promised on the campaign trail, has already delivered, and now needs to resuscitate to remind voters that he, in fact, handled it and now has to address another dust-up. So where are we on this tax and spending bill, Henrietta? Obviously, the House has...

made its point and now it's with the Senate. What's the timing and kind of what are the big issues that we need to pay attention to?

Sure. This rest of this week, we're going to see four different committees roll out their respective packages. This is mostly going to be on the spending side. So as I mentioned, judiciary gets to spend one hundred and seventy five billion dollars. I believe they'll roll out their package on Wednesday or Thursday. And then next week, we'll get into the Senate Finance Committee, where the big heart of the package is. That's where the Medicaid cuts are and all the tax spending in most.

deficit financing. I think the bill passes the last week of July. Henry Detroys, what's the question you would ask Andrew Cuomo of New York State?

Talk to me about states' rights. Where does Gavin Newsom stand on states' rights? I think that's what the courts are going to judge on. Ask what he would do if he was in that position. States' rights all day. I promise you we will ask that. Henry and Atreus, thank you so much. The Veda Partners. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 7 a.m. Eastern on Apple Podcasts.

Charles Cantor, Senior Portfolio Manager at Neuberger Berman. He and I can go back and forth on the mistakes we've made in our career. It's a long conversation. Charles Cantor, how did you get into the business?

How do you have humility away from the Mag 7 when you've got Warner Brothers Discovery trying to piece together

You know, the news this morning, it's a time to be humble, I guess, with the other 483 stocks, right? I think so. Look, I think we're in a market that I would describe as kind of nuanced. It frustrates us a bunch when folks like to think about, you know, Magnificent Seven and then the other 493 companies. I think you want to, like we've done our whole careers, you want to kind of look at each company differently.

company by company. We've been in an environment now for a long time where all that mattered was momentum and beta. I'm not sure we're still in that environment. I think post the election, the market started to behave a little bit differently. But I think what gets lost a little bit on the Magnificent Seven is there's good reasons why many of them are magnificent.

And one thing I'd like to point out is when you look at both their R&D spend and their CapEx spend on an annual basis, these seven companies...

spend north of 9% of their revenues on R&D, which is north of $250 billion. To contextualize that amount, that's more than the entire healthcare and biotech sectors combined. Why do we pick those sectors? Because those sectors have to invest in R&D to replenish their pipelines. And then on the balance sheet side of the ledger, especially pronounced over the last couple of years as they've built out their AI investments,

Last year was the first time that they spent more than the entire materials, mining and industrial sectors combined. Why do we pick those sectors? Because those are typically the most capital intensive sectors. So at the end of the day,

Lumped together, these seven companies have incredible optionality on the future. That doesn't mean all seven are going to work. It doesn't mean we like all seven. And the way, for example, Apple's got there versus the way Meta and Google has got there looks completely different. Apple hasn't spent any of the CapEx that I've just responded to. They've actually shrunk their capital base, whereas the others have invested a lot. And oh, by the way,

They've done all of that without leveraging their balance sheets, which is just astonishing. Go run a model where you spend all that money and somehow don't take on leverage. So when you think about just big tech in general, forget the Mag 7. I'm not even sure who's in the Mag 7 these days. Big tech has been, as long as anybody can remember, been driving these markets higher. It's been the leader of these markets. Is that still the case? Maybe just by...

fact that they're so big in the market it has to be but can they still lead this market they enjoy tremendous scale and they enjoy tremendous optionality and as we know well in this room we are in innovative led entrepreneurial spirit led

dynamic economy and innovation and entrepreneurial spirit has been driving us forward for the 25 years that I've been on the buy side. It used to be the internet. It used to be Cisco. It's now the others. And we can get into those comparisons as well. Do you, I mean, I know you're looking at cricket stores, Charles Cantor with the Stuberger Berman. Do you use AI, this nascent AI we have? We are using it in incredible ways.

Increasingly, increasingly, increasingly. Remember, all of the information I'm privileged to analyze is by law public. We have this thing called regulation fair disclosure. And since it's all public, it's all available on your favorite AI machine. We are using it aggressively at Neuberger Berman to think about how to make better decisions. I'm using it personally in my life.

It's massively productivity enhancing. I think within our industry, within asset management more broadly, I think it's gonna have a profound impact 10 years from today. I think the way we think about how we crunch data,

will look fundamentally different. And I have wonderful folks on my team, but the speed at which we can now look at data versus what it used to look like is dramatically different.

Tom, you know, Alex Steele and I were at a BNY Mellon conference last week down in Washington, D.C. Capital rule. To a person, to a person, the BNY folks that came on our show said AI is the most important thing in their business here. Charles, let's look back. You were acclaimed on Amazon Whole Foods and all that. Has that worked out for Amazon?

I think it has. I think it has for sure. I think it gets them the last mile. It provided Whole Foods with lots of technology. It provided the consumer, Whole Foods customer, an idea that Whole Foods was no longer the most expensive ticket in town. But

That size of the acquisition was, I think, south of $10 billion when they did it. And so when you look at the market capitalization today, it feels very small within the overall context. The thing that always amazed me about that transaction was I said, and I wasn't very liked for saying it at the time, that Amazon got Whole Foods for free because at

At that moment when they announced the deal, Amazon's share price went up in market capitalization by more than the totality of the purchase price of that acquisition. And when you look over in time, generally when acquisitions get announced, the net present value on the day is negative, not positive to the acquiring company. Outside of tech, what screens well for you guys these days?

You've got to be nuanced on that again. I think we spend a lot of time thinking about how does technology produce productivity enhancements across sectors. And I truly believe when we look back, 10 years forward and we look back, I think you're going to continue to see this march upwards of operating margins in the S&P. Since I've been at Neuberger, everyone said operating margins are peaked.

Operating margins can't peak if you have great management teams running great businesses with innovation in a free market. Charles Cantor, thank you so much. And Neuberger Berman, greatly appreciate it.

If this government spending in defense goes towards things like R&D that have dual-use civilian purposes, you could get spillovers that actually end up enhancing productivity in Europe and so have a more long-lasting impact on growth.

To learn more about the intersection of national security and global trade, subscribe to PGM's The Outthinking Investor in your favorite podcast app.

Thrivent can help you plan your finances for the people, causes, and community you love. What makes Thrivent different? Financial services and generosity programs are combined to help you build a financial roadmap for the future while also creating opportunities to give back along the way. Visit Thrivent.com to learn more. Thrivent, where money means more. ♪

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 7 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal. Lisa Mateo, the newspapers, it is a joy.

Okay, we're starting with this story from Bloomberg Screen Time. So Lucas Shaw wrote this article about the business behind baseball. Really interesting because it talks about how TV ratings are up, right? ESPN ratings are up 22%. Game attendance, a seven-year high in 2024. I mean, Tom Keeney's going to baseball games at Yankee Stadium. But the league is scrambling to find this buyer for the major TV package because ESPN said in February it's going to end the broadcast deal with MLB after the 2025 season. And that was earlier than expected.

And they were paying like $550 million a year and wanted to pay less than half that price. The downside is when we sat down right behind the Red Sox dugout, Mrs. King turned to me, Paul, and said, when's halftime? So it was a little difficult, folks, I tell you. Anyways, Paul, let me translate it for you. There's 162 games.

I'm guessing the NFL, it's 16 games. I think 18. Every, is it 18? 17, 18. Well, let me do 16 games because that's my math right now. That's 10 baseball games for every compressed football game of excitement. It just doesn't work. No, no. So it's a long season. You build over time. Uh,

And baseball is a local. It's a local. It's not a national game. So it's all about the local. And they said, Lucas said the regionals, it's like really difficult. Except Yankees and Dodgers. Yeah, a few of them still have some good and the Red Sox. But the regional sports networks are just a disaster right now.

I just want to know if you did the YMCA dance at the Yankee game. Did you do it? Yes, she did. Even worse, she walked down the row to the front row where, you know, I think Mayor Wu was there. And I had to do the video of the YMCA dance in front of the players. Yep, sure. Proud moment. There's got to be a video out there, Lisa, of Tom at Yankee Stadium. There's got to be a video. Oh, there's a video.

I love it. I love it. Okay, I want to go to this one. College graduation season, right? It's starting to wind down. But what actually picked up are the scavengers that scooped up those expensive items that the graduates left behind, like in the garbage rooms and the dumpsters. So, for example, like one person in an apartment building in Durham, North Carolina, says she scooped up like Valentino sneakers that are like...

almost $1,000, like this incredible toaster, big tables, luxurious stuff, when all the Duke students moved out. So that's what she did. And then you have people doing dumpster diving at Caltech in Pasadena because they're getting thousands of dollars worth of books

From the recycling center. The books that the parents paid for. Exactly. Okay, I got it now. That are in the dumpster from the recycling center that they're taking and then kind of reusing them and reselling them. There's a headline this weekend. I'll go quickly here because we've got one more story to squeeze in. Clark University, Worcester. Great school to lay off 30% of faculty amid restructuring. Wow.

It's a challenging new college year nationwide. It is. Good morning, 92.9 FM in Worcester. What else do you have? Okay, quick one. Those being laid off, right? It used to be this mark of shame when you were laid off, but now it's kind of like this badge of honor. This is from Business Insider. They point to a lot of things like people launching newsletters about being laid off, workers live streaming it on TikTok.

Layoff influencers now offering advice. LinkedIn has the hashtag open to work on top of that. And there's even layoff merch now. So before where it was like, oh, I got laid off. Let me just hide. No, there's communities and everyone is kind of

going around all these people who were laid off. So now they have these support groups and everything to help them out throughout the tough time. But it's like this badge of honor that they have now. Like, I got laid off. Well, I think it's going to be an uptick in people in Starbucks sitting there with their laptop

Looking for jobs or digging or whatever they do, I think. We'll cover a challenging jobs report on Friday. Lisa Mateo, the newspapers. Thank you so much. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts.

Listen live each weekday, 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

Thrivent can help you plan your finances for the people, causes, and community you love. What makes Thrivent different? Financial services and generosity programs are combined to help you build a financial roadmap for the future while also creating opportunities to give back along the way. Visit Thrivent.com to learn more. Thrivent, where money means more.

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