Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Jordan Rochester & Sharon Miller
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Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. The single best idea, the first day of June, first business day of June, final month of Q2, uncertainty in the air, in the ground, everywhere, and it was just an odd, odd Monday. So what you do is you don't so much blow up the show as you piece it together and

In our team, Eric and the interns, they pieced it together in the six, the seven, even in the eight o'clock hour. What an honor to have Olivier Blanchard with us today to make comments on the life of Stanley Fisher. It's just...

Magisterial for him to talk the stories We talked about Oh the time Samuelson was so angry He grabbed the chalk out of Stan Fisher's Hand and threw it against the wall Blanchard said Modigliani was actually worse Great vignettes there

But also there was a weaker dollar. On short notice, thrilled to have Jordan Rochester with again from Mizzou. Piercing analysis. Look for his good work out on LinkedIn. Here is Jordan Rochester of Mizzou. Well, we learned this through Trump's first term. It's so noisy, Tom, that it's very easy to get yourself lost in the woods and miss the big trades that happen in the background. And I think this de-dollarization is a big trade that will carry on. I think the Europeans...

building up their defense spending. You just had the UK over the weekend or today announced increasing spending on submarines. So you're going to miss that big structural improvement in European growth expectations if you focus too much on what comes out of the Oval Office, tariffs on, tariffs off, or the taco trade, as some people talk about it. But I do worry about the summer's event risks. The calendar is

pretty positive for defense spending. We've got the G7 summit, the NATO summit, and the EU defense summit all in the last two weeks of June. There could be trade deals secured with US and Japan. That might be a bit of a positive. But I worry about the Europeans. I don't think they're going to get a deal before the July 9th cutoff, the date when the reciprocal tariffs shift higher for Europe. And if that's the case, the ECB will have to cut rates, in my opinion, in July. There's only six basis points priced for that meeting. So we'll find out on Thursday how dovish they are.

Jordan Rochester there. My head's spinning on European dates, but he's got them in tow. We'll keep our eye on that. Joining us as well from Bank of America, and this is something odd for us, in the financial media space,

We love to talk to bank executives. What's the Fed going to do? And all that drives me absolutely bonkers. Today, in the plumbing of the Bank of America, we had Sharon Miller off of their Texas shop. She's in charge of all of their business relationships for Brian Moynihan.

and the team. Here is Sharon Miller on the pulse of American small business. I have been head of small business for the past eight years at Bank of America. And what I have seen from our clients is resilience. They go through different things.

COVID. We went through COVID. We went through all different types of crisis. And you've got to look at the data versus what people are saying. And so we do see in our data and we, you know, we look at all areas of the country. The Northeast has not fared as well as the South. There you go. And so as you think about what's actually happening from region to region, industry to industry, it's not all the same. But I would see overall the health of business is strong. Sharon Miller.

The Bank of America. An eventful week on a jobs day on Friday. A lot of economic data here the first week of the month, including market moving data here on Monday. Really difficult 10 a.m. numbers, ISM manufacturing and all that. Again, across this nation on your commute on Sirius XM channel 121.

Apple CarPlay, Android Auto, and of course 99.1 FM, 92.9 FM, and Bloomberg 1130 on the East Coast. We say good morning to you. Out at YouTube, subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts, building each and every day. And on YouTube podcasts, this is Single Best Ideas.

Thank you.

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