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cover of episode Henry Olsen and Chris Wilson on the Virginia Election

Henry Olsen and Chris Wilson on the Virginia Election

2021/11/10
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Breaking Battlegrounds

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Henry Olsen: 民主党对现实的认知存在偏差,他们无法接受美国民众与他们意见相左的事实。他们会想方设法地忽视或驳斥这些不同的声音。此次弗吉尼亚州和新泽西州的选举结果显示出一种一致性的转变,这表明民主党脱离了美国中产阶级的诉求。民主党应该关注选民真正关心的问题,而不是试图强迫选民关注他们关心的问题。长期以来,两党都专注于取悦其核心支持者,而忽略了中间选民,这导致了选举结果的巨大波动。共和党并非一个反民主的政党,独立选民能够区分特朗普和其他共和党人。民主党对共和党的负面描述误导了中间选民,为温和的共和党人提供了机会。政治精英们过于关注社交媒体,而忽略了大多数选民对政治的漠不关心。电视和社交媒体的受众只代表一小部分选民,政治家们不应该只关注这些小众群体。两党都过于关注其核心支持者,而忽略了中间选民的诉求,这导致了选举结果的反复无常。两党都让家长们感到恐惧,导致他们不断在两党之间摇摆不定。白人工薪阶层选民的大规模参与,以及郊区和少数族裔地区的选民转变,是共和党获胜的关键因素。共和党不必依赖特朗普就能赢得选举,他们应该建立一个新的多数派联盟。共和党应该强调传统美式爱国文化,并制定符合这一理念的政策。共和党应该放弃只惠及富人的税收政策,转而关注中产阶级和工薪阶层的利益。共和党应该关注工薪阶层的拉丁裔和亚裔选民的利益,以争取他们的支持。民主党应该向中间选民靠拢,但这需要他们与党内进步派发生冲突。民主党将试图通过宣传其政策的个别条款来争取选民的支持,但这种策略可能不会奏效。民主党内一部分人无法与共和党进行建设性对话,因为他们对共和党的看法过于负面。民主党人对共和党的负面描述是他们无法与中间选民沟通的主要原因。 Chris Wilson: 格伦·杨金赢得弗吉尼亚州州长选举是因为他开展了积极的竞选活动,而特里·麦考利夫则开展了消极的竞选活动。格伦·杨金的成功在于他积极的竞选形象和远见卓识。杨金的竞选活动以积极的宣传为主,而麦考利夫的竞选活动则以负面宣传为主。选民并不关心1月6日事件和唐纳德·特朗普。杨金的胜利对共和党来说意义重大,因为这意味着共和党在更多州都有机会获胜。麦考利夫为了迎合民主党内的激进派,采取了过于左倾的立场,这导致他失去了中间选民的支持。民主党人开始坦诚地表达他们的政治立场,这使得共和党有机会赢得更多选民的支持。共和党应该利用数据分析技术,针对不同选民群体发送个性化的信息。共和党应该更有效地争取拉丁裔选民的支持,例如使用多种语言的宣传材料。共和党在教育问题上的立场更受选民欢迎,因为民主党在疫情期间关闭学校的政策不受欢迎。越来越多的拉丁裔选民正在转向共和党,共和党应该抓住这个机会。共和党在拉丁裔选民中的支持率正在上升,这将对未来的选举产生重大影响。民主党在州和地方政府层面的过度干预导致了选民对他们的不满,这为共和党提供了机会。

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Chapters
Henry Olsen and Chris Wilson discuss the results of the Virginia election, highlighting the uniform swing against Democrats and the implications for future elections.

Shownotes Transcript

This week on Broken Potholes, Chuck and Sam talked to Washington Post columnist Henry Olsen and Chris Wilson), CEO and partner of WPA Intelligence. Henry and Chris break down exactly what happened in last week’s election and what it means for 2022 and 2024.

Henry Olsen is a Washington Post columnist and a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center. Olsen began his career as a political consultant at the California firm of Hoffenblum-Mollrich. After three years working for the California Assembly Republican Caucus, he returned to school to become a lawyer. Following law school he clerked for the Honorable Danny J. Boggs on the United States Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals and as an associate in the Philadelphia office of Dechert, Price & Rhoads. He then joined the think tank world where he spent the next eighteen years as an executive at a variety of institutions, serving as the President of the Commonwealth Foundation, a Vice President at the Manhattan Institute, and as Vice President and Director, National Research Initiative, at the American Enterprise Institute. He left AEI in 2013 to pursue a career in political analysis and writing at EPPC. During that time his work has appeared in variety of leading publications in America and the United Kingdom. He is the author or co-author of two books, “The Working Class Republican: Ronald Reagan and the Return of Blue-Collar Conservatism” and (with Dante J. Scala) “The Four Faces of the Republican Party”. His biennial election predictions have been widely praised for the uncanny accuracy, and he is a frequent guest on television and radio programs. Olsen regularly speaks about American political trends and global populism in the United State, Europe, and Australia.

Prior to starting WPA Intelligence in 2004, Chris) was Global Director of Research for Weber Shandwick International, the world’s largest public relations firm at the time. While at Weber Shandwick, Chris led research for Fortune 500 companies such as Coca-Cola, American Airlines, Kodak, Wells Fargo, and Boeing.

In 2016, as the Director of Research, Analytics and Digital Strategy for the Cruz for President campaign, Chris is widely credited for playing a key role in Cruz’s triumph in Iowa and helping the Texas Senator finish with the most delegates earned by a 2nd place finisher since Ronald Reagan in 1976. Using a meticulous, technologically advanced, and highly individual approach, Chris led the campaign to reach voters by predicting voter behavior based on ideological segments, personality modeling targeting each voter based on the issue most important to them.  You can read more about Chris’ Iowa work in Sasha Issenberg’s seminal Bloomberg piece, “How Ted Cruz Engineered His Iowa Triumph.”An Oklahoma native, Chris is a graduate of University of Oklahoma and Georgetown and remains an avid Sooner fan. In the rare instances that Chris isn’t working, he enjoys watching OU football and Thunder basketball, spending time with his sons, Denver and Carson, reading, and racking up impressive amounts of frequent flyer miles.  He is a regular political analyst on both Fox News and MSNBC.

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