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cover of episode Ryan Tyson on Florida's Red Wave

Ryan Tyson on Florida's Red Wave

2021/6/3
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Breaking Battlegrounds

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Ryan Tyson: 我在民调行业并非科班出身,而是从贸易协会的政治部门工作中逐渐积累经验,最终创立了自己的公司。我们与其他民调公司不同,我们专注于更短的调查问卷,并重视互联网和电话调查等多种研究方法。我们虽然是中间偏右的机构,但也会为美国各地的企业客户服务,并熟悉民主党的政治话语体系。我认为,人们对民调的误解在于,他们往往不了解高质量数据分析的成本,以及许多公开民调分析质量的低下。许多民调机构为了获得媒体关注,会发布带有倾向性的结果,损害了民调行业的信誉。我们公司则通过大量的数据收集和细致的分析,力求提高民调的准确性,并将数据与历史研究和选区层面的实际结果进行比较。我们发现,许多公开民调对民主党选民和白人选民的比例估计不准确,这表明他们的样本抽取方法存在问题。在佛罗里达州,我们对关键人口统计数据的长期跟踪,使我们能够建立可靠的趋势线,从而更好地预测选举结果。例如,我们在2020年就发现了佛罗里达州西班牙裔选民对民主党的支持度下降的趋势,而其他民调机构没有注意到这一点。我们注重简洁明了的调查问卷设计,避免过于学术化的分析方法。佛罗里达州的新登记选民数据显示,共和党选民的增幅最大,但如果民主党加强基层组织工作,选举结果仍然可能非常接近。自2012年以来,佛罗里达州的西班牙裔选民对民主党的支持度持续下降,共和党候选人在西班牙裔选民中的支持率逐年提高。佛罗里达州的共和党胜利并非易事,需要强大的基层组织和选民动员工作。2020年,民主党在佛罗里达州的基层组织工作不足,这影响了他们的选举结果。当前的党派对立环境下,选民的投票行为更多地受到党派归属的影响,而不是具体政策问题。一个成功的佛罗里达州共和党候选人需要强硬的立场,并能够对抗民主党。我发现,45岁以上的白人选民更容易在民调中隐瞒自己的投票意向,选民在民调中可能会因为社会压力而隐瞒自己的真实投票意向。作为父亲,我意识到自己对孩子的掌控力有限。 Chuck Warren: 与Ryan Tyson讨论了佛罗里达州的政治局势,以及民调的准确性和局限性。探讨了佛罗里达州共和党在最近选举中的成功,以及潜在的风险。分析了佛罗里达州选民的构成和变化,以及影响选举结果的关键因素。讨论了理想的共和党候选人形象,以及佛罗里达州选民关注的主要问题。

Deep Dive

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Ryan Tyson discusses his journey into the polling business, highlighting his initial dissatisfaction with existing pollsters and his decision to start his own firm, the Tyson Group.

Shownotes Transcript

Ryan Tyson) of the Florida-based Tyson Group joins Chuck Warren on this week’s episode of Broken Potholes to offer his insight into the current state of Florida politics.Also on the show this week, Chuck talks to Ryan Smith, the Director of Communications and Government Relations for Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport. His responsibilities include marketing and community relations, as well as all government relations duties for the airport. Ryan graduated from Arizona State University with a degree in Political Science and is a fifth generation Arizona resident.  Ryan Tyson is the President and managing partner of The Tyson Group, which is a center-right polling and market research firm with polling experience in 48 states. 

He serves as Executive Director of Preserve the American Dream, a Florida based 501(c4) that primarily educates the public and media on quantitative and qualitative research it conducts across the state and around the country.   

As a Florida based strategist, Tyson has developed multiple organizations devoted to fundraising, research, electioneering and independent expenditure efforts. He has served as strategist and pollster on multiple statewide ballot initiatives in Florida, using his research techniques to not only to craft successful ballot titles and summaries on ‘Yes’ campaigns, but also exposing the weaknesses in ‘No’ campaigns. He has also  worked for some of the largest corporations in Florida and his political acumen and prowess are known to many across the country.    

Tyson’s wide range of experience in all levels of national, state, and legislative campaigns and has made him a valuable asset in the Sunshine State. Having advised on multiple statewide campaigns including for former President Donald Trump’s Florida campaign, Governor Ron DeSantis, Senator Marco Rubio and Senator Rick Scott, Tyson’s unique mix of data driven campaign strategy has resulted in Florida Politics twice naming him as one of the top 100 “most influential people in Florida Politics.”  

He received his Bachelor of Science in Public Relations from the University of Florida. He currently resides in Tallahassee with his wife, Mary Beth, and three sons, John David, Brennan and Benjamin.  CONNECT WITH USTwitter: https://twitter.com/BrokenPotholes)Facebookhttps://www.facebook.com/brokenpotholes)Instagramhttps://www.instagram.com/brokenpotholes/)LinkedInhttps://www.linkedin.com/company/broken-potholes)

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