BONUS: Storks, Smoking and the Power of Doubt
10:14 Share

Pushkin. So I have some big news for vegans and vegetarians everywhere. It's Hellman's plant-based mayo spread and dressing. Made for people with a plant-based diet or anyone really who wants to enjoy the great taste of Hellman's real without the eggs. Hellman's plant-based is perfect for sandwiches, salads, veggie burgers, or any of your family favorites.

To celebrate, Hellman's is sharing some easy, delicious plant-based recipes at hellmans.com. Hellman's plant-based mayo spread and dressing. Same great taste, plant-based. The most innovative companies are going further with T-Mobile for Business.

Tractor Supply trusts 5G solutions from T-Mobile. Together, they're connecting over 2,200 stores with 5G business internet and powering AI so team members can match shoppers with the products they need faster. This is enriching customer experience. This is Tractor Supply with T-Mobile for Business. Take your business further at T-Mobile.com slash now.

On August 29th, Sauron has returned. Prime Video invites you to return to Middle-earth for the epic new season. Sauron will fall. You can't kill me. War is coming to Middle-earth.

I will not stop until he is destroyed. Every soul is in peril. Shall we begin? The Lord of the Rings. The Rings of Power. New season, August 29th. Only on Prime Video.

Stay tuned.

News headline number two. I have a brand new book coming. If you're listening in the US or Canada, it's out early next year and it's called The Data Detective. It's never too early to pre-order, so please consider doing that.

But if you're listening anywhere else in the world, the book is out right now. And it's called How to Make the World Add Up. On the surface, it's a book about statistics. But really, it's a book about how to think clearly about the world. And if you want to know what the book is really about, gather close. I'm Tim Harford, and this is a special mini-episode of Cautionary Tales. CAUTIONARY TALES

You can make an estimate of how many children have been born into a Dutch or Danish family by counting the stork's nests on the roof of their house. In statistical terminology, it would be said that a positive correlation has been found to exist between these two things. These are the words of Daryl Huff.

the author of the most popular book about statistics ever written, How to Lie with Statistics. But of course, storks do not actually deliver babies, no matter how strong the correlation may be. Huff explains, Of course.

Sometimes it seems you can prove anything with statistics, especially things that aren't true. Daryl Hough's little book is a masterclass in scepticism. He exposes mistakes, half-truths and outright lies. Why, he explains? The crooks already know these tricks. Honest men must learn them in self-defence. Daryl Hough made statistics seem like a game, or perhaps a stage magician's trick to

all good fun but never to be trusted. And I worry that we're starting to trust nobody. We're starting to believe that lying with statistics is all anyone ever does. But scepticism can easily curdle into cynicism, and cynicism can be corrosive.

After all, in 1954, the very same year that Hough published How to Lie with Statistics, two researchers, Richard Doll and Austin Bradford-Hill, produced one of the first convincing demonstrations that smoking cigarettes caused lung cancer. They couldn't have figured that out without statistics.

Even to notice the dramatic increase in lung cancer rates in the mid-20th century required a statistical view of the world. So what Daryl Huff saw as a trick, Richard Doll and Austin Bradford Hill saw as a tool, and a tool that has saved many millions of lives. Two visions of statistics had emerged at the same time, and they very quickly came into conflict.

Because as the evidence on smoking and cancer emerged, the tobacco companies fought back. When their product was so dangerous, so demonstrably dangerous, how on earth could they persuade people to keep smoking? In a stroke of twisted genius, they realised the answer.

Scientific evidence was the enemy, so they had to give people reason to doubt that evidence without attacking it head-on. They chose to emphasise uncertainty, the fact that experts disagree, and to call for more research before anyone did anything hasty. They manufactured doubt. And it turns out that doubt is a really easy product to make.

A couple of decades ago, two psychologists, Carrie Edwards and Edward Smith, conducted an experiment to test how people felt about all sorts of politically fraught questions, including abortion rights, smacking children and the death penalty for under-16s. They invited people to produce as many arguments as they could in favour of or against the conclusion, given three minutes per topic.

Of course, people found it easier to produce arguments that backed up what they already believed. Lots of researchers have found that. But more strikingly, Edwards and Smith found that disbelief seemed to flow more fluidly than belief. It's much easier to argue against positions you dislike than in favour of positions you support.

Doubt has a special kind of power and it is the easiest thing in the world to suggest that you should doubt what the statistics are telling you. This is why the simplest move in any argument today is to encourage people to believe nothing. Doubt is a powerful weapon. Now, statistics are a natural target but honest statistics need to be defended because while it's easy to lie with statistics...

It's even easier to lie without them. And there are plenty of things in this world, from the link between smoking and cancer to how to deal with the coronavirus epidemic, that we simply can't begin to understand without statistics. In a complex world, they are an essential tool. In the spring of 1965, a US Senate committee was pondering the life or death matter of whether to put a health warning on packets of cigarettes.

An expert witness appeared, and he wanted to throw doubt on the scientific evidence. So he turned to the topic of storks and babies. It turns out, he said, that households with more children also have more storks on their roofs. That old story about babies being delivered by storks wasn't true, the expert went on. Of course it wasn't. Correlation is not causation.

And similarly, just because smoking was correlated with lung cancer didn't mean, not for a moment, that smoking caused cancer. Do you honestly think there is as casual a relationship between statistics linking smoking with disease as there is about storks? asked the committee chair. The expert witness replied that the two seemed to me the same. The witness's name was Daryl Huff.

He'd been paid by the tobacco lobby to do what he did best, weave together witty examples, some statistical savvy, and a certain amount of cynicism to cast doubt on the idea that cigarettes were dangerous. He was even working on a sequel to his masterpiece, although it was never published. The sequel's name was How to Lie with Smoking Statistics.

I understand that statistics can seem intimidating, and they are often used deceitfully, but we mustn't give way to cynicism, or feel helpless under the deluge of numbers. Understanding statistical claims doesn't require a deep technical background. If you're able to think, then you're able to think sensibly about statistical claims.

which is why I've written a book about how to think more clearly about numbers and about the world. If you're listening in the US or Canada, that book is called The Data Detective, and it's out early next year. And if you're listening anywhere else, the book is called How to Make the World Add Up, and it's out now as a book, an e-book, and as an audio book read by me. If you like what I do here on Cautionary Tales, I really think you're going to love the book.

The world is an amazing place. And these days, whatever you're interested in, the chances are you'll understand it much better through the lens of statistics. Don't be cynical. Don't assume it's all a lie or a trick. Don't be afraid to pick up this statistical telescope and gaze around.

This mini episode of Cautionary Tales was written and read by me, Tim Harford. The producer was Ryan Dilley, and the music and sound design were by Pascal Wise. Cautionary Tales is a Pushkin Industries production. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, and I'd like to take a moment to talk about an amazing new podcast I'm hosting called Medal of Honour.

It's a moving podcast series celebrating the untold stories of those who protect our country. And it's brought to you by LifeLock, the leader in identity theft protection. Your personal info is in a lot of places that can accidentally expose you to identity theft. And not everyone who handles your personal info is as careful as you.

LifeLock makes it easy to take control of your identity and will work to fix identity theft if it happens. Join the millions of Americans who trust LifeLock. Visit LifeLock.com slash metal today to save up to 40% off your first year.

So I have some big news for vegans and vegetarians everywhere. It's Hellman's plant-based mayo spread and dressing. Made for people with a plant-based diet or anyone really who wants to enjoy the great taste of Hellman's real without the eggs. Hellman's plant-based is perfect for sandwiches, salads, veggie burgers, or any of your family favorites.

To celebrate, Hellman's is sharing some easy, delicious plant-based recipes at hellmans.com. Hellman's Plant-Based Mayo Spread and Dressing. Same great taste, plant-based.

The news isn't always good news, but when you're getting quality journalism and in-depth expert analysis that's held up for more than 180 years, that is definitely good news. So if you haven't already, save 20% with The Economist's summer sale today and stay on top of the stories that matter to you. You'll instantly gain unlimited digital access to daily articles, special reports, award-winning podcasts, subscriber-only events, and so much more. Now that's

Good news. Go to economist.com and subscribe today.