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cover of episode Margin of Effort (with Ron Brownstein)

Margin of Effort (with Ron Brownstein)

2024/10/15
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Hacks On Tap
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David Axelrod
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Mike Murphy
R
Ron Brownstein
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David Axelrod和Mike Murphy讨论了2024年美国总统大选的形势，特别关注了特朗普和哈里斯之间的竞争。他们分析了选情，认为特朗普在某些关键摇摆州的支持率有所上升，而哈里斯则需要改进竞选策略。他们还讨论了选民动员、经济因素、移民问题等对选举结果的影响。 Mike Murphy认为，如果现在举行选举，特朗普可能会获胜，因为他在关键摇摆州的支持率有所上升，并且他的竞选信息更清晰、更有效。但他同时也指出，特朗普缺乏有效的选民动员机制，这可能是他获胜的障碍。他还分析了哈里斯的竞选策略，认为她需要更积极地攻击特朗普，并强调其带来的风险，而不是仅仅关注经济问题。 Ron Brownstein认为，目前选举结果难以预测，因为选情非常胶着。他分析了特朗普和哈里斯各自的优势和劣势，认为特朗普的优势在于宏观因素，例如对现任政府的不满情绪，而哈里斯的优势在于微观因素，例如更充足的资金和更专业的竞选团队。他还指出，哈里斯需要改变竞选的基调，展现出更积极的形象，并讲述更引人入胜的故事，才能赢得更多选民的支持。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The discussion revolves around Trump's potential to win by escalating his rhetoric and the implications of such a strategy.
  • Trump's rhetoric may mobilize disengaged voters.
  • There is a concern about the cost of his escalating rhetoric.
  • The race is close, and the margins are small.

Shownotes Transcript

Hack-A-Doodle-Doo! We are three weeks out from election day, so Axe & Murphy have enlisted their favorite political whiz, Ron Brownstein, the human encyclopedia of hackfoolery! The Hacks break down the state of the race, dissect Harris’s messaging hits and misses, and explore how the popular vote, Senate, and House races could differ from the top of the ticket. They’ll introduce you to a lovely hammer-swinging couple, discuss giant magnets, layer cakes, and so much more!