Deep Dive
Shownotes Transcript
Hey, pull up a chair. It's Hacks on Tap with David Axelrod, Robert Gibbs, and Mike Murphy. Hacks on Tap
Mr. President, for months when you were asked about your age, you would respond with the words, watch me. Many American people have been watching and they have expressed concerns about your age. That is your judgment. That is your judgment. You know, Mike Murphy. Hey. Good to see you, brother. That wasn't actually, she was not wrong about that.
The polling is pretty clear. This is a problem. Well, what I love is the president has a gentle sense of humor about the whole thing. Self-deprecating Irish wit that I think unites the country around this fine man. You know, yeah, yeah. Get off my lawn. Yeah, he went all Clint Eastwood and Gran Torino chasing the kids off the lawn there. Yeah. But you know what?
We have someone with us who has shouted these impertinent questions for many years.
Casey Hunt from CNN, one of the great political reporters around. Casey. You're too generous. No, actually, that's that's that just like the polling. That's accurate. But but I wanted to ask you what your reaction was to the events of last week, which we I guess we should recap. But everybody sort of knows. So go ahead.
Yeah, I mean, the short version, right? The the council issues a report that says the president's too old and can't remember when his son died. And the president gets really angry, goes out and does that news conference that we just heard. And that was honestly my takeaway. The president got really angry.
And I don't know about you all. I find sometimes when I make decisions in anger or a member of my close family does, it's not always the best decision that could be made. And you're not always at your finest. Now, sometimes that's not the case in politics. Sometimes getting to see a little bit of that emotion is something that helps people identify with you. But that's certainly how I viewed kind of what happened with the president last week. And I think we're still seeing the fallout of it now. When you get pissed, does your White House side staff discourage you?
Thankfully, I have no stamp. I just have my husband, who's usually the subject of my ire anyway. Biden defenders will say, you know what he proved? He proved he's human.
And Biden, I'll try to take the Biden case here for a minute and then then I'll need some et cetera for throwing out my neck for the twisting. But I think, of course, he's irritated by that question. And the thing people like about Biden, to the extent they like anything about Biden with his poll numbers is.
is that he is kind of what you see is what you get. He's pretty transparent with his emotions. And that, you know, some pertinent media person starts squawking at you and you're in the middle of two wars you're trying to deal with and everything. And you think the Republican special prosecutor, you know, is a partisan and all the usual political stuff. So I kind of get it. But the problem is it throws yet another massive log of
on the big Joe Biden is old, super old, maybe too old bonfire, which is what's killing him, along with perceptions of the economy, be they fair or unfair. So it doesn't help. And I've yet to see, and we've been squawking about this here for two years, I've yet to see the Biden people break any political moves to get out of this thing, which is getting worse and worse for him. Yeah, I agree with you. Listen, he had reason to be pissed. I mean, I think...
that, you know, you talk to lawyers and they say, well, yeah, you know, the special counsel sort of leaned in more than he needed to. And the both things seem pretty gratuitous. And everybody knows that that's a red flag for him. The thing that I was wondering was, would he not have been better off if they wanted to get in the story and stem the story? Would he not have been better off
going to a, you know, just a sit-down interview with somebody. I mean, he had the opportunity for the Super Bowl, which was sort of mind-boggling that he skipped that. Yeah, why did they ever pass on that? I mean, that was insane. That seems insane to me. I mean, that is an opportunity to, especially with CBS being the broadcaster in this case. Yes, yeah. Like, I mean, the kinds of questions, the way that they're going to edit that, it's going to be very traditional, very classic. Who are you rooting for, Mr. Brown? I mean, it wouldn't have been. Yeah. Yeah. Right? It's a chance to talk to 129
Well, even if he got the question, he would get the questions about the polling and he'd get the questions about age, but you'd have time to prepare for that. Right. You could have a great line. Well, it's true. So this year I'm not planning to actually suit up and play. You know, I mean, there are a million things he could do that would be the fun part. By the way, sidebar, just for political junkie stuff. So I know a consultant type.
uh, Biden friendly here who was quote in LA, who was quoted saying, boy, I don't know why they missed the Superbowl interview. You know, that's pretty obvious. Got the angry email from the white house, not helpful. How did you know? And I'm like, really, really? I mean, they've got to have a culture there, maybe taking a note once in a while. So that was interesting to me. They were so prickly about that because it was obviously an error.
Well, they did send out, well, I mean, just to finish the other point on the, what venue they should have chosen for their response to the thing, you know, that was quite a scene when you shove them into the diplomatic room in the white house, bunches of reporters standing, shouting questions is not necessarily the best thing for you. And he did. And then,
The other element of this is every time he makes a mistake, which may not be fair, every time he makes a mistake, everybody goes nuts. And at that same press conference, he did this. As you know...
Initially, the president of Mexico, Al-Sisi, did not want to open up the gate to allow humanitarian material to get in. So Al-Sisi is obviously not the president of Mexico. And every time that happens, you're going to get this. There's a meme, the
It's in the water. It's all over. Who is Sisi, by the way? Imaginary friend? The president of Egypt. Yeah, exactly. Al-Sisi, the president of Egypt, yes. But this is a compounding problem because it's now a storyline. And so on TikTok and Instagram, it becomes all the rage. The White House did...
The White House did marshal a counterattack and Jon Stewart jumped all over that last night. Let's in his return to The Daily Show. These two candidates, they are both similarly challenged. And it is not crazy to think that the oldest people in the history of the country to ever run for president might have some of these challenges. Now, Democrats will say that any criticism like this, especially of Biden, is unfair.
Because you just don't know Biden like they know Biden. President Biden, who I've been around numerous times just in this last year, is sharp, he's focused, he's bright. He is sharp, intensely probing, and detail-oriented and focused. This is a man who is sharp, who is on top of his game, who knows what's going on. He's smart, he's on his game. I was in almost every meeting with the president, and the president...
was in front of and on top of it all coordinating and directing leaders who are in charge of America's national security not to mention our allies around the globe. Did anyone film that?
Right. That is I mean, Jon Stewart sort of puts his finger on the problem. I believe, Casey, that Biden is those things in those meetings. I believe that he is a very, very competent president. But what Americans see is what they see in front of the camera. Right.
Yeah, you can't see it. That's the problem. And so it becomes this game of them having to try to convince people that that's the guy. Right. And so they put him out there. They rush him out there. And, you know, frankly, you mentioned the setting of that press conference that Biden gave. It felt like a crisis. Right. Like we're responding to a crisis. Like had somebody gotten, you know, there've been bombs going off in some part of the world that the U.S. had said that the president's in the diplomatic room with a handful of reporters that are left at the White House late at night. Right. Right.
it didn't send the message like, we actually think we got this, guys, right? And instead, you're here trying to convince people this is who he is, and as you point out, he makes a mistake, and it contributes to the narrative. And, you know, welcome back John Stewart. He's got a way of putting his finger right on the thing every time, and we're going to have him the rest of the election year, too, because he's right. This is the thing, right? You've got to take their word for it, and voters don't do that these days. No, it's the Bigfoot problem. Oh, you know, if you only turned the camera on quick enough, he was here a minute ago. Yeah.
And then the problem is Bigfoot actually comes out and it's not that sharp. So, yeah, and they think they're helping with all that stuff, but they're actually raising expectations. Okay, so tomorrow he's going to come out and do some nuclear physics for us. And then it doesn't happen.
Yeah. I mean, you know, the bind, Mike, is that, you know, I mean, you and I can disagree on policy stuff we do, but he's done some arguably really, really big things. He's managed these global relationships pretty deftly. And, uh,
in a time of crisis, but because of the way he presents himself, he doesn't get credit for what he does. He gets mocked for when he makes mistakes and nobody gives him, and everybody gives him credit for everything that goes wrong. Well, the other problem is when you're there behind the podium, naked on a rock, so to speak, you don't get credit for good staff. It's an image I don't need, but yeah. Yeah, no, I thought I'd, I'd, uh,
I'll give you a mind twister there. But no, that, you know, when you're an effective president, it means you have an effective staff and the machine works. When you're out there performing, you're alone. Yeah. And, you know, I've used the analogy of antlers. You can cure cancer, but if you show up for the press conference with antlers growing out of your head, the story is going to be, holy Christ, the president has antlers. Or in a tan suit. God forbid you wear a tan suit. Right, right, exactly. We all remember that. So it's, it is tough.
With a limited toolbox, too. I mean, that's what I think they fear is even if they came up with, all right, we put him on roller skates, he juggles, spins around twice, speaks Russian, he can't execute any of that. So what do you do with him?
that makes it better i think it's i think it's the other guy who may speak russian but anyway well and take orders in russian for sure why are they so afraid of interviews acts like why don't they sit him with with like in a controlled setting i honestly don't know but you know it's far better than what we saw on thursday and honestly there are certain things you there are certain things you have to do that i mean that are just part of this uh
of this gauntlet that you have to run. You can limit them, but you sort of have to do them just to show you can. And, you know, if you're normally in, Michael, say this in two, I'm sure. I mean, he ran the, you know, the longest rolling press conference in history into the 2000 presidential race with McCain. Like,
you know, most campaigns and most candidates view should view and most presidents should view interviews as opportunities, even in difficult moments. Right. You double down. Exactly. And you can turn things and you, you know, what's coming and you can handle it and you can turn it. And maybe they just don't have confidence that. Yeah. They're, they're falling into a trap I've seen before. I, it, it,
You can cure this with a fire hose. In other words, if you're afraid your guy is going to gaffe city in an interview, you flood the zone with interviews. And then he's constantly making gaffes and that devalues the importance of them. And then it's like, oh, that's just Biden. You know, that's just the way it is. And Trump is the king of that.
Yeah, exactly. When I first worked for McCain in 2000, it was, I remember I was staying outside the bus and we were doing the endless press conference and somebody came up who's a political hack was showing up. The event goes, boy, you're taking a real risk with that. And I said, yeah, you know, when I started with him, I felt like a roadie for the great Walenda, the tightrope artist.
You know, you're sitting there shaking, watching him make it between the skyscrapers. Like, oh, God, with a gust of wind, look out for the pigeon. You're going to fall. You're having a heart attack. By the 11th show, you're like, come on, Carl. We got a show in Buffalo. Move it along. You know, you just get. And once everybody calms down and you decide that if there's a gap, we just get up and keep going.
Then you're bulletproof and now you're riding the dragon. You know, you're in charge. It becomes, yeah, exactly. Like, I mean, as someone who's been on the other side of those scrums, right? It's like eventually we do run out of questions. Yes. Right? Yeah. But, you know, some of that requires the discipline to go where you want to go. Don't go where you don't want to go.
and exhaust the questions and move on, you know? And McCain was a special guy, too.
I have to say. Well, he enjoyed it. He clearly sort of enjoyed it. We loved it because he was a performer and a ham. And we had tricks, too. I will admit the press would get tired or there'd be some newbie on and wanted to get a pull to serve a trick question. So then we'd bring on the foreign reporters. And the Italian TV correspondent would ask him about sexiest woman he's ever fallen in love. You know, and we just burn hours that way. So it was.
Murphy planted those questions. Yeah, no, no. I personally would recruit the right questioners. Here's the other. Yes. So they need to roll with it. Yeah. So this has me flashing back to 2020. And I guess really this is
this is the big question I have is what is the difference age wise between the Biden who ran in 2020 and the one who's running now? Because I had, I remember when he was at his worst, right? He pulls up stakes in New Hampshire before voting is over. He flies to South Carolina. Everybody's basically declared him dead in the democratic primary. I was,
was actually in South Carolina that weekend and he came on I was hosting a show at the time on Sunday nights and it was two hours long and they sat him down next to me at like seven o'clock at night and he talked to me for like 20-25 minutes at his age who was then Simone Sanders I mean she was mad as hell behind the camera like waving like rap like be done with it and I was like sorry sorry like
it's live television. You're not in charge. I'm in charge. But it was great. And he showed himself like he was the Joe Biden that, you know, is the guy from Scranton who everyone came to love, who's very facile with questions, goes where he wants, stops where he doesn't. And obviously that the beginning of that week, he then sat down with Craig Melvin of The Today Show and for the Jim Clyburn endorsement. And the rest is kind of history, right? So I do think there's this thing that when politicians are really down, sometimes you get the very best from them.
Oh, totally. And I feel like right now his staff is playing that protective strategy that failed him the first time around. Yeah, and what are they hiding? Are people going to figure out he's old and malaprops all the time? It's done. The cake is baked, so run with it. They got a guy who loves to talk, by the way, so let him go talk. I'm mostly with you guys, but I think what they're worried about is that something bad is going to happen. It's happened.
Yeah. Well, that's what they're missing. It's done. They already fell into the orchestra pit. So now bounce to your feet and do another trick. You know, there's no protecting them. It's out. Yeah. Well, I don't think bouncing in the orchestra pit is a good idea either, but...
I'm not sure about the bouncing up thing. It wouldn't be good for me, and I'm not even 40, so... Oh, that hurts. Yeah, exactly. Wait a minute. She's turned the tables. Now we're the old guys. Are we too old to host Axe on Tap? That's what the listeners keep telling us. Yeah, believe me. The other element of the thing that happened Thursday...
And the aftermath of it that is going to be a pain for him is that the Republicans in the House, where Casey used to patrol, seized on this like hungry dogs.
And, uh, they, he said a few things in that presser that they will follow up on the, you know, the denial of whatever his state of, of mind or performance was in that, in that deposition is easily knowable because there is a tape and there is a transcript and they'll be going after the tape and transcript. And they're already doing that, uh, ferociously. They're going to have the special counsel testify. Uh, they, he's,
He said all these documents were secured, apparently not based on the photos. They'll follow that up. And they're going to Benghazi this thing right from now until November. Yeah, undoubtedly. So that's another headache for him. All right, let's take a minute to hear from one of our esteemed sponsors. ♪
But one thing about that mashup that Jon Stewart did is a lot of people have been clamoring for, you know, unleash the surrogates. And I expect that you're going to see a more disciplined effort to—we'll see how they handle him, but also to get surrogates out there. And, you know, that also requires them having a—
A narrative. I mean, they had a narrative on the Sunday show. Obviously, they all did, which was he's sharp. He's this. He's that. But the overall narrative narrative of the campaign is something that all the surrogates have to internalize and go out and deliver religiously and on a regular basis. Yeah.
And can I just say, they were slow to that. I mean, I because I mean, I was hosting two daily shows the day after this news conference, right? One at five in the morning and one at 11. And the thing that I was looking for both times is where are and this was even in the initial response to what the special counsel had to say, right? Where are Democrats saying, like, this guy went too far, right? Where are Democrats saying, you know, and even further defending the president, there were crickets for like many hours.
Like, I didn't have anything to take to air by 11 in the morning. And that seems like malpractice to me because obviously the networks were up at 7 a.m. with their big shows, right? Why isn't there, you know, somebody, I mean, they don't need us anymore to send a camera for them to say something, right? Where are the Twitter videos saying, like, this is outrageous, right? I mean, that's also the politics. Trump has taught people anything, like...
There are Democrats, you know, of course, Biden supporters like they want to see Democrats fighting for Biden. Right. Like they want to see people saying like this is unfair and attacking the system. And there just was it just wasn't there the day after this. Yeah. Well, I think they've got there. There's a wealth of talent out there in the Democratic Party that, you know, eager to go out.
and fight for him. But for them to have a narrative, the campaign has to settle on its narrative. I'm not sure that they've done that yet, Murphy. No, look, I've been saying for a while, you've heard it. I'd run the whole team. I'd surround him with the young talent. They're thinking it'll make him look old. That's done. He's old.
You know, they've got superstars and I would run the whole action team versus Trump team of dregs. There's a lot of things they could do, but for whatever reason, they're kind of stuck into this defensive crouch where Biden goes out and gets in trouble and they all act like they know it and they're terrified by it. The whole thing needs 180 degree reversal. Plus,
Plus, they need a narrative. And now new economic news is starting to creep in the other direction. They'd had a pretty good six-week run.
which hopefully from their point of view would start to move opinion and perception on the economy, which might dig them out of some of the trouble he's in. But now the inflation numbers are coming out and it looks like it's a little stickier than people thought. So, you know, there could be storm clouds on that horizon, which is the last thing they need. So they need a good campaign and a strong narrative more than ever now. And they're doing Jimmy Carter. They're just like, oh, nobody's going to vote for that crank Trump. Yeah. Well, you know, I,
I think they ought to. We've got to talk about the crank in a second. But, Casey, you're a Michigander, right? Are you from there? Originally, yeah. My mom's family is there. I was born there. Ah, we have you outnumbered, actually. This place is lousy with Michiganders. The reason I raise it is there was a good piece in the Times today about Michigan and union workers in Michigan and about Arab-American auto workers who...
are like, I don't care about the union endorsement. I'm, uh, you know, I'm angry at Biden about the war and I'm not going to vote for him. Talk about Michigan, you guys, because you know, Michigan really well. Yeah. I think it's a place where the Biden team really, um,
is potentially in trouble. I mean, I spent a lot of time talking to Debbie Dingell, but also others kind of who are up there. I still have a lot of relatives who live there, actually. And, you know, there's a reason it voted for Trump, albeit narrowly, in 2016. I mean, it is in many ways... I mean, you guys can tell, right, when you're driving around the country, am I in Trump country or not? And a lot of Michigan is just, quite frankly, Trump country. And I don't think the question is necessarily, you know...
I'd be surprised if a lot of these, you know, Arab Americans who, my mom actually grew up in Dearborn. It was before it became what it is today. Um, yeah, much it's, it was much different then. Um, but it's really, you know, we're quite familiar with, you know, what it's become now and it's, um, you know, a center of population. They have, uh, you know, just amazing. Um, if you, if you like food, Middle Eastern food, my gosh, it's like, you can't get it anywhere else in America better than there. Um,
But these people, and when you talk to Congresswoman Dingell, I mean, people are hurting, right? Like their families are over there. They're dying. They're in just terrible circumstances. And that's not like that. That isn't something that stands up to, well, my, you know, my boss at work told me that I should vote for the other guy. Right. Like it just doesn't like stand up.
And so, you know, I mean, I think that I buy the White House argument that they're unlikely to vote for the guy who advocated for a Muslim ban. But if they stay home, that's potentially enough to throw the state. I mean, I don't know, Mike, what do you think? Well, yeah, no, I agree with that. Dearborn's a fascinating place, by the way. It was originally the old Ford Motor Company town had a dictatorial mayor, Mayor Hubbard, Orville Hubbard. Oh, my God.
My grandfather used to talk about him. Oh, yeah. No, no. It's, you know, because my family goes back to Wayne County, too. I think it is of the key swing states easily the focal point of the reelect because Biden pretty much has to win it or Trump does to win the presidency. And what people miss about Michigan is they think, oh, Motown, cars, UAW, big, complicated state, multiple media markets, West Michigan, very different and evolving.
than what it was 10 years ago, then Detroit, and then the suburbs around Detroit, and then you got the middle areas. First of all, it's not a union lock state anymore. The UEW is a shadow of what it used to be. The manufacturing economy there is mostly non-union, and there's resentment with...
When the union goes on strike and everybody down the supply chain starves. So that's why when Biden hit the picket line, people were, oh, masterstroke. You watch. And his Michigan numbers went down after that, not up. So you have that complexity. It looks like autos might be slowing down a little bit. And then as Casey was saying, you have Dearborn.
I had an FBI official years ago tell me that the secret weapon for the success we had in the war on terror after 9-11, that we didn't have big events here, was Dearborn, Michigan, because it was a recruiting ground for people who were completely loyal American citizens who traveled in that Mideastern world and allowed them to get assets, people with relatives. And that community is very important. It's very established in Michigan, and it is important.
under pressure now, and there's a lot of anger at Biden. On the other hand, there's also a strong Jewish community in Michigan. Spence Abraham, my old client who was the senator, we used to laugh because during the campaign, he'd go up to the northern suburbs in Oakland County, and activists from the Jewish community all thought Abraham is Jewish.
And then Spence, who was a Lebanese Christian, in reality, would go down to Dearborn and it'll be the exact opposite opinion. And they said, come on, you're in here. You're one of us. And so it is it is very complicated. But in fairness, we all go back to Abraham. You know, it's like, yeah, good point. Good point.
And so, of course, Spence is like, I'm Greek Orthodox. Can I tell him? I don't want to. I want to cut you off only because you could fill the rest of the hour talking about Michigan. I'm fascinated by this. Oh, my God. I'll wrap it up with one sentence.
It is the weak cartilage right now on Biden's political body. And they got to figure it out. And doing give me the old union religion is not the key to the new Michigan. So let's talk about the other guy, because, you know, in many ways, the last week absent the council's report was mostly a terrible week for Republicans.
First, they, at Trump's behest, turned down, you know, they won the fight for a tough border law and the president throws in with them. And then they pull the rug out from Lankford. Remember, Murphy, you'll remember this, that you weren't born yet, Casey, but the Woody Allen movie, Take the Money and Run. Oh, yeah. And he was and he's he's a convict and they're planning a jailbreak.
And they all the other inmates forget to tell him that they had called off the jailbreak and he's in the prison yard and the spotlights are on. He's all alone out there. That's poor James Lankford. Yeah. Who, by the way, lifted the normal Republican veneer. And you could see the frustration to his credit. He was honest about it. Yeah. No, but let's listen to that. Some of them may have policy differences. Some of them have been very clear with me. They have political differences with the bill.
They say it's the wrong time to solve the problem or let the presidential election solve this problem. In fact, I had a popular commentator four weeks ago that I talked to that told me flat out before they knew any of the contents of the bill, any of the content, nothing was out at that point, that told me flat out, if you try to move a bill that solves the border crisis during this presidential year, I will do whatever I can to destroy you.
This is where they should have been just absolutely flooding the zone. This should have been a great week for Democrats. It's the first time in three years that Biden has had the chance to take the offensive on what I think is probably one of the most vexing problems facing not him as president and him as a candidate. But all of this overshadowed that. But
What it does speak to, Mike, despite all your protestations, that guy is in charge of the Republican Party. Yeah, they're afraid of him. But they bucked him on Ukraine in the Senate. Last night, five in the morning, they passed something. 18 of them. 30 of them voted no.
Yeah, but they're still fighting. I won't go the binary way and say it's completely Trump all the time. He's not going to be able to get at least his first choice through the RNC. But yeah, he's the majority ruler. And in the House, he's got a total stranglehold and the massively dysfunctional House.
and it's an American tragedy. - Casey, what happens with that bill? The Senate, after much, much wrangling and the usual Rand Paul antics and so on, they pass this thing at five in the morning. You used to cover that place.
Yeah. Rand used to strand me in the office until all of these hours with those antics. So I'm not sure there's a lot of sympathy for it over here, but yes. What happens now? I mean, I honestly think it's anybody's guess. I mean, they only put the border stuff in there because it was demanded by the government.
conservative Republicans in the first place. Like, that's how we got here, that there was this big border negotiation was that, well, this is what, you know, if you want us to do foreign aid, this is what we're going to extract from you. And then they got what they wanted and dropped it like a hot potato. And Donald Trump basically said, if you let Biden solve this problem before the election, you know, that's going to be bad for me. So don't do it.
Right. I mean, I was sort of as someone who's covered immigration, you know, for the failures of however many years. It's just astonishing to me that basically Democrats gave up all the things that they demanded along the way. Normally to get that kind of a policy, they wouldn't have gotten they would have extracted something, whether it was legal status or protections for dreamers or whatever. It was I don't think
We can underscore enough like how conservative this bill was in terms of what they got out of it. But now, you know, I just the House is so dysfunctional that I really think there's very little way to predict what's going to happen next. I mean, the speaker has been clear about what he is going to do, which is he's not going to take it up.
obviously there's this effort to force it out with you know discharge procedures right a discharge petition yeah if you want to sorry on tv i'm used to describing things instead of using the words that we use like congress that's right um but yeah right they're trying to force his hand right with this discharge petition move it's unclear whether that's going to work i mean look if they just put it on the floor it would pass but the problem is how to get it to the floor and i
I mean, he's about to, you know, there's a special election in New York tonight. We'll get to that, yeah. Yeah, and that's going to, if Democrats win there, Johnson's hand is even weaker. He'll have a two-vote majority. Two votes, right? And it's crazy. Now, if it was Nancy Pelosi, I would sort of assume that they still could run the place. She proved that she could run the place. But Johnson's a rookie speaker with a, you know, and he inherited the same problems that, you know, threw out McCarthy and had Bader throw up his hands and leave town.
Right. So the short answer is if I'm if I'm Ukraine, I'm not betting on the United States anymore. And that is a really like really dramatic departure from the the way that we and especially the Republican like Mike's Republican Party has conducted itself for the last since Ronald Reagan was president. Yeah. Here's a tell the CODEL, the congressional trip to the Munich Security Conference has now been canceled.
because the Republican senators are afraid to show their faces there because we're betraying Ukraine. Yeah. You know, we supported him right into a war. John McCain. I know. McCain is spinning in his grave right now. Invited me to go to Munich with him one year. I mean, my God. Well, he's spinning in his grave and also really, really sad that some of the people who... Lindsey Graham. Yeah, would have relied on him. But let's listen to Trump this weekend because he made some...
news because it goes right along with the Ukraine issue. They asked me that question. One of the presidents of a big country stood up, said, well, sir, if we don't pay and we're attacked by Russia, will you protect us? I said, you didn't pay your delinquent.
He said, yes, let's say that happened. No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You got to pay. You got to pay your bills. Yeah. So Trump thinks geopolitics is basically a rent dispute about a badly kept up parking lot in Queens. That's kind of how his mind works with all 81 IQ points. And this scares the hell out of the Europeans. You know, you really I was at a thing.
with a bunch of big European names, mostly in business, you know, at the beginning of the Trump deal. And huge German industrialists took me over and say, you know, we're next to the Russians. And Trump is doing his NATO bullshit then. He said, you really want a German bomb? Do we have to do that? Is that our insurance policy? Because the U.S. is now certifiable.
I mean, the amount this disrupts the world orchestra where we are the metronome beat cannot be overestimated. But with our dumb reality show politics, oh, yeah, he's telling those fancy French they got to pay up. He's a tough guy. I mean, it's just it is just horrifying. McCain is not the only grave spinner right now. Everybody who built the Atlantic Alliance, thousands of statesmen of both parties are spinning because this is.
near trees. Well, you know, what's interesting is watching McConnell, who really has, he would, he was taking members on CODELs to the Munich Security Conference to Eastern Europe to try and underscore the importance of that. And he's, of course, been standing in the door here trying to block the
The Trump veto on this bill that passed. But Casey, how long how long can he hold sway against this populist isolationist tide that Trump is trying to whip up here?
Yeah, not as long as I think he would want to. I'm not sure I ever thought that I would live to see the day that Mitch McConnell was involuntarily sidelined in the Republican conference, but I think we're watching it happen in real time. Kind of the twilight of the Republican party that he was part of. I mean, he had such a break with Donald Trump after January 6th, and people will say what they will about McConnell, but that break was very real. And
It was clear, even when they were impeaching him over that, that McConnell wanted to do one thing, didn't feel like he could in the context of the politics of his conference. And that pressure has only escalated to the point that, you know, the Josh Follies and Ted Cruz's of the Senate are really taking over Tommy Tuberville, others. It is changing before our eyes. And each election cycle, I think it's going to continue to change. If you look at some of the Senate candidates that are out there, I mean, the chances that the Republicans are going to take back the Senate are
pretty high and the people that are going to come in, they're not going to be Mitch McConnell Republicans, even in some of these states like, you know, in Ohio, Montana, where you have vulnerable Democrats in in the reason there's Democrats from that state is they're a little bit more purple than some other places than Mississippi and Alabama. But those the candidates that are likely to come in, you know, there was a tussle over what's going on in Montana just this past week.
they may get a less Trumpy candidate. Partly because Trump endorsed the less Trumpy candidate. Exactly. Not knowing, by the way, Trump jumped too quick. He didn't wait for the big crazy finish and pray for Matt Dolan in Ohio. But you're right. They're literally going to have to remove the knives and forks from the Senate dining room. That's where we're going. Okay, then let's take a break right here, and we'll be right back. ♪
Trump has made a career of saying the unthinkable, but he sells this as, you know, our charity to the world, to an ungrateful world. He really is, what he's talking about is basically like people around him or people who've served with him say, yeah, he's going to try and withdraw from NATO.
I mean, he's talking about pulling down the post-war order, world order that has prevented a third world war for 70, 80 years. This notion that you can yield to Putin and that Putin will stop his aggression seems fanciful at best. Yeah. And he's doing it. If you talk to voters on the trail, Trump is doing this by arguing that the way he's going to do it is going to prevent World War Three.
And it's the same way that you know how Trump will say something that is like very obviously the opposite of what's actually going on, as in like, you know, the election was stolen. Right. But he convinces people that he's right. That's what he tells these voters. He's like, look around like I'm going to do all these things to prevent us from getting into World War Three. When, in fact, dismantling those systems is the thing that is most likely going to take the stability out of the world to the extent that we could actually face something like that. Right.
Neville Chamberlain Murphy said that, too, back in the 30s, piece in our times. But it sells. It does. Look, isolationism has always had an appeal because of two oceans and a lot of stupidity. So and it's been around the Republican Party before. So he's he's kind of modernizing that old instinct and he reduces it to stupid. The apprentice calculations are.
And so, you know, with with China rapidly rising, arguably if a bigger, stronger economy than we have now, bigger Navy. Sure. Great time to be isolated without allies. Yeah. You know, Trump, the master genius. So it all goes back to me. It's really simple. I'm not a huge Joe Biden fan. I've got a lot of ideological differences with him.
But Biden has to win. You know, even if we have to replace him with a really good robot, Biden has to win. This thing is getting very, very clear. And so what I tell my Democrat friends is, yeah, we can get exasperated about Trump and pass around halos. But if we don't figure out your Dems, particularly because you got hands on the throttle, how to fix your guy, you're going to
you're going to hand this thing over to a lunatic because a normal Democrat would beat Trump. That's why I'm still with, if Biden woke up tomorrow and thought what's best for the country, get out, as messy as that is. Who else could beat Trump? Axe, who else could beat Trump? Let me make clear because I've been pretty clear about this.
my feelings about all of this for some time. I think if you gave me Joe Biden and his record, this wouldn't even be a contest. If you took 10 or 15 years off of him, this age thing is, is a barrier. And the problem with that is it doesn't get better. I think any younger competent Democrat would be Donald Trump. Donald Trump is,
His flaws are being hidden by these questions about Biden. Exactly. That's the problem. You think Kamala Harris could be Trump? Well...
You said any younger, confident Democrat. Yeah, maybe, but I don't think she'd be the nominee. She's going all Casey Hunt on me. Look, I think she would have, you know, her numbers are as bad as his numbers, and there would be some concerns about her as the nominee. If you open the thing up, I think there, I don't think people...
think people would yield to her as the candidate. But there are, you know, I think some of these young governors, younger governors, and we've talked about this before. No, Whitmer. I'll do the Michigan angle. Yeah. And there are a couple more. Yeah, yeah. But having said all that, I'm with Murphy because I really don't think, absent some tragic circumstance that none of us would wish for, I think Biden is very much determined to run.
And now the question is, how do you, how do you, uh, you know, how do you develop the narrative? We've talked about this before on this show. I've got ideas and feelings about this, but how do you develop a narrative and how do you employ tactics that work around and address and work around people's concerns, uh, and put the focus back on the choice in a way that benefits Biden. And that means this, if this election is a, a, uh,
If it's a referendum on Biden, I think it's going to go poorly. If it's a choice, I think he has a shot to win. I agree. And that's the center of gravity. The question is, can Trump's grotesqueness warp that and not make it a referendum on keep or fire the incumbent? Let me just throw one more log on the Trump fire. I get tired of it because it just seems...
It never ends, and it's depressing. But the shot he took at Nikki Haley's husband, who is serving in the uniform of the United States Army overseas, while he is a phony, bone-spur, privileged draft dodger, is just, just vomitable. Much like his old attacks on McCain and other things he's said. It is just...
Unbelievable. Or his denigration when he went to the American cemetery in France and questioned those people. Listen, we've talked about it a million times. He thinks people who are about something larger than themselves and are willing to sacrifice for something larger than themselves are suckers. Sucker play. He thinks they're suckers.
But there was something else afoot with his intimations about Haley and her husband. And it's really peculiar for a guy whose wife is completely absent from this campaign. No, she's for Haley. It's pretty obvious. I'm waiting for her to pop up in an event once the pre-nup is triple verified. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Hey, listen, before we get to the mailbag, today is the day of the...
New York Third District George Santos replacement election. And this thing is going to be interesting in so many ways, but the Republican campaign...
is Mazie Phillips' campaign. And she's interesting, by the way. She's an Ethiopian refugee to Israel who then came to the States, Orthodox Jew, Black, very little experience in politics, a registered Democrat running as a Republican, but has embraced some of the
Things you have to embrace to be a Republican in this day and age versus Tom Swasey, who served that district for years, who was the Nassau County executive, a moderate Democrat. But she's trying to wrap immigration around his neck. Illegal immigrants arriving by the busload. Why?
Because Tom Suozzi repeatedly weakened America's borders. Suozzi supported allowing illegal immigrants charged with violent crimes to be released back into our community. He even bragged about getting rid of immigration enforcement. When I was county executive in Nassau County, I kicked ice out of Nassau County. Tom Suozzi helped create our immigration crisis. In Congress, he'll make it worse. Congressional Leadership Fund is responsible for the content of this advertising.
You know, I never liked that Swazi guy, now that I hear this. Well, well, you should hear this then. They're smearing Tom Swazi on immigration. But it's Swazi who worked with Republican Peter King to get tough on illegal immigration and confront our border crisis. You were one of 18 that voted to support ICE. You know, because I do support ICE. HMP is responsible for the content of this ad.
Okay. They're swearing him. Yes. But this is a huge issue. He's hit her very hard on being pro-life, anti-choice. But last weekend, he's been ahead by a few points, but just a few in a race that's going to be hard to win.
You will probably know a lot of people know the answer by they hear that by the time they hear this podcast. I'll be interested to see if he can pull this thing through. Last Friday, they arrested a 15 year old kid for who was a Venezuelan migrant for shooting folks in Times Square. And I.
That story was a dominant story going into the final weekend of the campaign. This immigration issue is red hot in the New York media market. Well, there's also something going on in Nassau County. So this is the north part of Nassau County in a chunk of Queens. Our old friend, Brother Israel, used to represent this. It is an eight-point Biden district. But it's gone a little...
It's gotten angry since 2020, 2022. So Republicans did well in the governor's race there. Republicans are doing well locally. And remember, this is a New York media market district. So you got a lot of suburbanites. It's a wealthy district. It's one of the wealthiest in the country.
but they watch the TV news from New York complaining about the city. It's madness, anarchy. Well, and immigration. Immigration, of course, that's the big thing. And so it's boiling and it's looking to punish somebody. So even though it is a more Democratic district, lately it's been on a tear. It's angry. So I think it's a real coin flip what happens. And
Poor Biden will catch hell for this, too, because it'll be seen as yet another rejection should the Republican candidate win, which I think there's a very good chance of. Casey, I think the assumption was that after the antics of Santos, that Democrats would be in a good spot here. But there's a lot of mystery here compounded by a blizzard. Right. In New York. So we don't really know who's going to turn out.
Yeah, currently it's like inches and inches of snow out there. Yeah, it's it's closer. You know, the Democrats I've talked to basically acknowledge it's closer than they think that it should be. Now, granted, Santos is kind of a funny one. Like he was so out there. He was kind of on his own island. Like I.
I get why people would lump him in with the rest of the Republican Party, but he was like so peculiar to that, that part of me thinks, well, you know, the Republican that they did stand up is so clearly a completely different character. I mean, she looks different. She sounds different when you hear her talk. So to the extent that she's penetrated, like I think that, you know, with voters, that gives her a better shot. Well, let me just play one last ad that parties super pack.
was running very heavily against her on the last weekend. Same story, new name. Mozzie Pillop's about to embarrass us again, refusing to answer questions. Zepina to testify about unpaid bills from her family's business. She also owed more than $100,000 in unpaid taxes to the IRS, even filing a false financial disclosure. Mozzie Pillop, she's an ethical nightmare.
It's Tom Swazi we can count on. He'll work with both parties to secure our border and fight for the middle class. H&P is responsible for the content of this ad.
If she wins, which if you put a gun to my head, I'd predict, but reluctantly, it's not going to be about any of this. It's going to be she's a vessel of protest. So this stuff won't stop. But the protest, Mike, it's going to be about immigration and it's going to be about crime. Yeah. And New York, the media market, the way to get at the mayor, the way to get at Biden, the way to get at all the people they want to get at. And that district, that county wants to get at them.
Yeah, I think that it's the immigration issue is absolutely the thing that's front of mind when I think about, you know, even if you visit New York, if you listen to what the mayor is saying about, I mean, what people are dealing with in terms of the schools and the city and the migrant crisis. I mean, it is very, very front of mind for people. And it's funny, my husband is from this area, actually. And kind of even when you understand like how a lot of those people think you can understand why it's a place that has gone towards Trump.
um, in under the Biden presidency. And so it, it's, it has really turned into a swing district in a way that maybe would have been unexpected. So I just, I won't be surprised if Philip pulls it out. Um, and as much as they may want to say, like she has these ethical issues, possibly all of it's true. I mean, it is just not the flamboyance of, of,
George Sanchez. I mean, he was out there saying, you know, oh, somebody, there was an assassination attempt against me. And my mother died as a result of 9-11. I mean, there was something to do with pets. And like, there's a lot there. Yes, yes, yes. It's just not the same thing. I don't think voters are going to connect the two, honestly. Let's take a minute to do an ad and we'll be right back. It's Listener Mail.
All right. If you have a question for the hacks, all you got to do is email it to us at hacks on tap at gmail.com hacks on tap at gmail.com. And because we've reluctantly gone modern, we have a completely impossible to remember number, which goes directly to the Cook County Democratic Headquarters slash betting parlor.
Let's play it because we have a recording. I can never remember it. 773-389-4471. I'll repeat it because who can remember that? 773-389-4471. Ask a question and automatically get to vote in Chicago. Just keep it short. We're the Bloviators.
25 seconds. I think I may have heard your voice on an Amazon return number. Is that? Yeah. I, there, there was a woman named Ramona Lemmy who was the voice of the automated phone numbers. And I've been trying to take that gig ever since one final Murphy plug. I'm do anything for a buck. Believe me. Oh, you hear our ads. Come on. I think we're, we got miracle tonics here. Check out ev politics.org. I'm fighting a good fight against Evie bashing. Uh,
by Republicans and others who don't get it. Important for national security, important for everything. EVpolitics.org. Every week you plug your things, and they're worthy, of course. But I decided today to urge people to listen to the Axe Files this week. On Thursday, I'm going to drop a conversation I had yesterday with Tom Friedman from the New York Times, who spent 45 years writing about and covering the Middle East.
And it's a very worthwhile conversation. So I hope you guys will give that a listen. Okay. There we go. We've done the play. You got anything, Casey? You know, new book coming out. Anything we want to plug here? Because we're being shameless. If we're being shameless. I got a show that's expanding to two hours in a couple of weeks. So please join us on CNN between 5 and 7 a.m. Casey knows this because I say it behind her back.
She does great work. Her stuff is terrific. So for all you early birds, make sure you give her a listen. Well, I hear you're not one axe, but I'm really hoping you'll hang out with us every once in a while. Maybe for you, I can change that.
All right. Let's get to these questions. Mike, there's a guy named Michael. Uh-huh. And he sounds suspiciously like you who came in on voicemail. So here you are, Michael answering Michael. Hi.
Great.
Great question, Michael. And here are the problems. Number one, the party leadership is full of cowards. They're afraid of their primary voters, so they're afraid to take them on. So they kind of look the other way and let the crime happen.
The reason they act like that is problem number two. A majority of the Republican Party wants Trump. They hate Trump's enemies, and that elevates Trump. They see Trump as a way to fight against increasingly woke blah, blah, blah left. So in the Republican primary electorate, Trump is selling cold beer.
And it is hard to take that away unless the party would unite to stop them. And 95% of our electives have lacked that courage. So, you know, how do you beat them? Well, you have to narrow it down to a binary choice. And because politicians are entrepreneurs, they all want to run. So you have 28 candidates against him and he wins for plurality. That's kind of the history of these primaries.
So my prescription would be one opponent and cheat. Wire the system. Because in a fair fight, too many Republicans want this nut. Yeah, well, that's the issue. Your last point is the issue. You don't have as many people as they do, and ultimately that becomes a big disadvantage. You have a one-on-one right now. Nikki Haley's about to get slaughtered.
In in South Carolina, but basically the you've been in a battle, Mike Murphy and your comp comrades in for the heart and soul of the Republican Party. And right now, Donald Trump is winning that fight that can change.
Right. And we're retreating into the vast step here. We're going to let him freeze to death and we'll be back. Never, ever, ever give up. But in the short term, yeah, he's driving. And I'm obsessed with keeping him out of the Oval. So now I'm going to hold my nose and be for Biden. Casey Hunt. It's either Dana or Dana, depending on...
how they pronounce their names. I feel like Haley is staying in the race because she's thinking, not unreasonably, that Trump is going to end up in jail or otherwise poop the bed. That's Moscow. Yes. Do the delegates automatically go to the person still in the race? What happens if the anointed one is suddenly out of the race after the GOP has already labeled him the official candidate?
So the short answer is no, they do not automatically go to the person that is the second in the number of delegates. What would happen if it's before the convention is
would be that those delegates would still be Trump delegates. And we would end up in a situation where it's likely a brokered convention situation, which I know, I don't know if Axe, you've ever looked forward to something like that happening in your political career. Yeah. I certainly have loved, would have loved to cover one. More fun when, when I was a reporter than a strategist, I think, but yeah. Exactly. Yeah. So, you know, I think there's a lot of doubt, you know, I spend a lot of time on the phone with Republicans asking them, you know, what's going on here. I,
I think there is some truth to the statement that delegates are power. So to the extent that Haley stays in the race and continues to amass delegates, which she can do more easily here in the beginning, we're going to switch shortly to a situation where it's going to be winner take all right now, you know, through super Tuesday, she's got some opportunity to collect those people that, you know, would go to the floor and be committed, you know, have to,
committed to picking her, right? But otherwise, you just got a bunch of people. And if you really look at who these delegates actually are, who the people are that are going to the convention, I mean, they are Trump people through and through. So if Donald Trump, for some reason, is no longer the guy, the idea that you're going to get the anti-Trump, you know, or never Trump
wing of the party to have some more power. I mean, Murphy, feel free to disagree with me on this, but I just do not see that. This is a key point because the state rules are complicated and there are variants, but fundamentally there's often a different process to pick the body.
So you go to a caucus nobody shows up for. You're one of the bodies in the delegation. Then there's a primary and you are instructed how to vote by what the voters do in the primary. But after a certain number of ballots, you're free to be who you are. And that's why back in – I'll take in a real-time tunnel. Back in the Pat Robertson era where he was a problem in the Republican Party,
In 92, a lot of the Dole delegates were Pat Robertson people.
So if it was ever open, there'd be kind of eerie music. And all of a sudden, you know, the convention of the living dead, they'd all turn back into Robertson people, even though we'd lost all the primaries. On the Democratic side, the most important person in a broker convention would probably be head of the teachers union because all of a sudden a bunch of teacher delegates would start to get the command signal. So the idea that I'm all for it, I wish it would happen, but that a lot of delegates are going to flock to Haley. Yeah.
in some broker conventions of fantasy. Even if there's a trial, and we'll address this in a second, even if there's a trial, Trump is convicted. I think that he could well be nominated as a convicted felon. He'll appeal, you know, which is going to make Milwaukee an interesting place in July, if that's the case. But we shall see. You have one for me? Okay, our final question from Jason. This is for Brother Axelrod.
Jason wants to know, what would the politics be like in the event the Supreme Court rules Trump is ineligible to run for office? Anybody who listened to the Supreme Court arguments last week, I think, would tell you that the idea of them making that ruling is very, very remote. It's more likely that it'll be an 8-1, 7-2 ruling that Trump stays on the ballot. The more important
Supreme Court ruling that I'm waiting for is how they deal with his appeal that he filed on Monday to the appellate court that said he didn't have a
unlimited immunity as president of the United States during the January 6th and run up to it period and all the things that he did. If the Supreme Court summarily dismisses his appeal and they could,
then it increases the likelihood that Trump will be tried this year on the January 6th charges. I think that will be really material to the election. I don't believe that it would stop him from becoming the Republican nominee.
I think he'll still be the Republican nominee. Yeah, that's the problem. Yeah, everything will be ultra-politicized, including the judicial system, which is yet another fracture in our system. But we have seen enough data and heard enough for me to believe that there may be some small segment of Republican voters and Republican-leaning independents who
For whom this would just be a bridge too far. Yeah, that's true. And this is a marginal election, and this could be the margin of difference. So the Supreme Court ruling that you should be waiting for, Jason, is on that case. Now, the Trump people feel that this case will not be tried this year, that they have other legal issues.
arrows in their quiver to try and delay that. But we shall see. The judge there seems pretty determined to try the case. So
Anyway, we'll have plenty to chew on in the weeks to come about that. All of it upbeat news. Casey Hunt, you're a delightful hack. Come back often. Yes, thank you for doing the show. I'm honored to be here. I'd love to come back. It's great to be with you guys. It's so fun. So, Casey, I don't know that there's been a formal announcement of when your new arrangement starts, but whenever it is, everybody set their alarm clocks in.
Soon? Soon, we hope. In just a few weeks. We're not sure quite exactly when yet, but I hope you'll join when we do get started. Well, I heard Axelrod commit to get up early at the top of the show here. We have it on tape. So I would do it, but I'm manacled to another rival network. Shackled to MSNBC. Right, right. So Casey escaped. Old stomping ground, yes. Anyway, all right. Thanks so much for having me, Murphy. I'll talk to you next week. Absolutely. See you guys. I'll be listening. Bye, guys.
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