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cover of episode Who Is Going to Win the 2024 U.S. Elections? | Henry Olsen

Who Is Going to Win the 2024 U.S. Elections? | Henry Olsen

2024/11/4
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Hidden Forces
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Demetri Kofinas
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Henry Olsen
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Demetri Kofinas：就2024年美国总统大选的现状、关键摇摆州和地区的候选人表现、提前投票情况以及其他关键指标进行了讨论。认为本次大选可能比2000年大选更胶着。 Henry Olsen：分析师关注党派倾向、投票率以及不同种族、族裔、教育背景群体之间的差异。认为如果民调显示民主党略微领先，那么卡马拉·哈里斯获胜的可能性很大；如果共和党略微领先，那么特朗普获胜的可能性会更大。如果选举日共和党支持率比民主党高出3个百分点，特朗普将赢得所有摇摆州。认为候选人的受欢迎程度与选民投票倾向相关，但并非完全一致。通过分析不同细分样本（如党派认同、性别等）的民调数据，可以更准确地预测选举结果。认为与2020年大选相比，共和党选民中投票给哈里斯的比例与民主党选民中投票给特朗普的比例没有显著变化。提前投票数据显示，共和党选民的积极性高于民主党选民（除拥有大学学历的白人外）。提前投票数据比民调数据更可靠，因为它反映了选民的实际行为。民调机构现在根据受教育程度对民调结果进行加权，以减少对特朗普支持率的低估。为了避免确认偏差，分析师应该参考多个民调的平均值来预测选举结果。佐治亚州是决定大选结果的关键州，如果特朗普赢得佐治亚州，他将有三种不同的途径赢得大选。预测市场的数据并不一定可靠，因为交易者可能会操纵市场以获利。哈里斯竞选团队最初的策略可能是为了避免她犯错，后来改变策略可能是因为之前的策略效果不佳。本届大选中，替代媒体（如播客、社交媒体）对共和党的影响大于对民主党的的影响。媒体格局已发生巨大变化，传统媒体的影响力下降，替代媒体的影响力上升。虽然替代媒体的影响力不容忽视，但其对选举结果的影响可能不如人们想象的那么大。在本次大选中，真正未决的选民比例可能很小，因此，同时激励支持者和争取少量未决选民的策略可能更有效。副总统候选人的选择通常对选举结果影响不大，但Vance的出色表现提升了他的知名度和受欢迎程度。J.D. Vance有可能成为美国政治中的变革性人物，重塑共和党。如果民主党输掉本次大选，该党派内部将面临权力斗争和重新定位。如果选举结果非常接近，宾夕法尼亚州或威斯康星州最有可能进行重新计票。如果选举结果非常接近，如何确保重新计票过程的公正性？如果特朗普当选，他可能会采取措施减少非法移民，但驱逐出境的具体规模尚不清楚。如果特朗普当选，他很可能会实施高额关税，但这些关税能否得到维持取决于法律和司法挑战。大选结束后，“Beyond the Polls”播客将关注各党派内部的分歧以及未来的选举。

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The discussion focuses on the importance of Georgia as a pivotal state in the 2024 election, which could unlock multiple pathways for either candidate.
  • Georgia is the linchpin state that could determine the election outcome.
  • If Trump wins Georgia, he has three separate pathways to victory; if Harris wins, it becomes difficult for Trump to win.

Shownotes Transcript

In Episode 387) of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with political analyst, author, and host of “Beyond the Polls,” Henry Olsen about the state of the 2024 presidential race and what to expect from what could be the most contested election in American history. Henry tells us how each candidate is performing in the key swing states and districts that will determine this election, the frequency of early voting and how it compares to 2020, and shares his views on other predictive metrics that he is paying close attention to. Henry believes that this election could be even closer than the one in 2000 between George W. Bush and Al Gore, an election that was ultimately determined by a narrow margin of 537 votes, along with a ruling by the Florida Supreme court to suspend any further recounts. The country is in a very different place today than it was two decades ago, and how any remotely similar scenario would play out this time is truly anyone’s guess. Olsen and Kofinas also discuss the economic repercussions of a Trump victory, the role of J.D. Vance as a potentially transformational figure in Republican politics, the effect that a loss on the part of the Democrats would have on their party’s realignment, and much more. You can subscribe to our premium content and access our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at HiddenForces.io/subscribe). If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe). If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces, you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts) | YouTube) | Spotify) | Stitcher) | SoundCloud) | CastBox) | RSS Feed) Write us a review on Apple Podcasts) & Spotify) Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/) Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas) Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io) Join the conversation on Facebook), Instagram), and Twitter) at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas) Episode Recorded on 10/31/2024