Podcast: Standard Deviations with Dr. Daniel Crosby (LS 48 · TOP 1% what is this?)
Episode: Market Corrections: Why They’re as Regular as Birthdays and What You Should Know
Pub date: 2018-02-17

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There are three things that intelligent investors must understand if they are to truly inoculate themselves against the fear peddled by the profiteers of peril: corrections and bear markets are a common part of any investment lifetime, they represent a long-term buying opportunity and a systematic process is required to take advantage of them.

A “correction” is defined as a 10% drop in stock prices, whereas a “bear market” is defined as a 20% drop. Both definitions are entirely arbitrary, but inasmuch as they are widely watched and impact the behaviour of other investors, they are worth considering.

From 1900 to 2013, the US stock market experienced 123 corrections – an average of one per year! The more dramatic losses that are the hallmark of a bear market occur slightly less frequently, averaging one every 3.5 years. Although the media talks about 10% to 20% market losses as though they are the end of the world, they arrive as regularly as spring flowers and have not negated the tendency of markets to dramatically compound wealth over long periods of time.

It is incredible to consider that over that 100 plus years, one could expect both double digit annualized returns with attendant double digit percentage losses. This being the case, please repeat after me: “Bear markets are a natural part of the economic cycle and I should expect 15 to 20 in my lifetime.”

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Market Corrections: Why They’re as Regular as Birthdays and What You Should Know