Note: This is meant to be an accessible introduction to causal inference. Comments appreciated.
Let's say you buy a basil plant and put it on the counter in your kitchen. Unfortunately, it dies in a week.
So the next week you buy another basil plant and feed it a special powder, Vitality Plus. This second plant lives. Does that mean Vitality Plus worked?
Not necessarily! Maybe the second week was a lot sunnier, you were better about watering, or you didn’t grab a few leaves for a pasta. In other words, it wasn’t a controlled experiment. If some other variable like sun, water, or pasta is driving the results you’re seeing, your study is confounded, and you’ve fallen prey to a core issue in science.
When someone says “correlation is not causation,” they’re usually talking about confounding. Here are some examples:
A 2019 study found that student test [...]
First published:
November 27th, 2024
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hhvaczrvptQqXNte2/causal-inference-for-the-home-gardener)
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