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“Five Hinge‑Questions That Decide Whether AGI Is Five Years Away or Twenty” by charlieoneill
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2025/5/6
LessWrong (30+ Karma)
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What Are the Key Premises Shared by Both Sides?
Hinge #1: Which Curve Do We Extrapolate?
Hinge #2: Can Software-Only Recursive Self-Improvement Outrun Hardware Installation?
Hinge #3: How Efficient and Sudden Is the Leap from Compute to Economic Value?
Hinge #4: Must We Automate Everything, or Is Half Enough?
Hinge #5: How Much Does Alignment Fear and Regulation Slow Down Progress?
How Do These Hinges Interact with Each Other?
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