Shownotes Transcript
** On the emergence of history's reins**
One general law, leading to the advancement of all organic beings, namely, multiply, vary, let the strongest live and the weakest die. ― Charles Darwin
We are a way for the universe to know itself. — Carl Sagan
If you don’t know where you are going, you’ll end up someplace else. — Yogi Berra
Imagine you were trying to explain how the world worked 10 billion years ago. Back then, the best explanation would be in terms of physics: galaxies forming and supernovas producing heavy metals. Ten million years ago, though, you’d talk about evolution: plants, mammals, and early hominids. Ten thousand years ago, when agriculture was being established, you might talk about culture and the spread of ideas. Each of these forces — physics, evolution, and culture — gave rise to the next, producing [...]
Outline:
(00:04) On the emergence of historys reins
(04:14) The forces shaping history
(05:55) The blind forces
(07:46) The anthropocene
(12:47) The ascent of choice
(14:50) Is a Choice Transition inevitable?
(16:14) What the Choice Transition is not
(16:45) It doesn’t mean omnipotence
(17:23) It needn’t mean a single chooser
(18:16) It needn’t mean the end of new forces
(19:09) AI and the Choice Transition
(19:49) 1) Better foresight capabilities and understanding enable steering
(20:26) 2) Better coordination capabilities could allow for more coherent steering
(22:24) 3) Agentic AI systems could be (among) the entities steering
(23:24) 4) Advances in AI could lead to centralization of power
(25:07) 5) AI might empower forces that squeeze out deliberate steering
(27:27) 6) Automation of research means it might all happen quickly
(28:39) The space of possible Choice Transitions
(30:31) Acknowledgements
(31:09) Appendix: comparison to existing frames
(31:15) Comparison to normal AI x-risk frames
(33:35) Related concepts
(33:39) Bostroms notion of a Singleton
(33:59) Yudkowskys notion of a Pivotal Act
(34:13) Finnveden, Riedel, and Shulman's notion of lock-in
(34:38) Ords notion of the Long Reflection
(34:59) Drexler's notion of Paretotopia
(35:14) Carlsmiths notion of yang
(35:42) Buterin's notion of d/acc
(36:04) Alexander's notion of Moloch
The original text contained 11 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.
The original text contained 4 images which were described by AI.
First published: November 18th, 2024
Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BHJ7x9gmDHoCvpZaA/the-choice-transition)
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