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cover of episode Does a 60/40 Balanced Portfolio Still Work? Time to Jettison Non-U.S. Stocks?

Does a 60/40 Balanced Portfolio Still Work? Time to Jettison Non-U.S. Stocks?

2023/2/8
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Money For the Rest of Us
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David Stein: 本期节目探讨了60/40平衡投资组合的有效性，以及在美股显著跑赢全球股市十年后，非美股是否仍值得投资。节目回顾了60/40投资组合的长期表现，分析了其优缺点，并讨论了影响其预期收益率的因素，例如债券收益率和股票估值。此外，节目还比较了美国股票与非美国股票（包括发达市场和新兴市场）的长期表现，分析了驱动其收益率的因素，例如股息收益率、盈利增长和估值变化，并探讨了汇率波动对非美国股票的影响。最后，节目总结道，60/40投资组合仍然是一种可行的投资策略，但投资者可以根据自身需求，在核心60/40投资组合的基础上增加其他资产类别，例如价值股、新兴市场股票和私人资产等，以提高投资组合的预期收益率。 James McIntosh: 60/40投资组合的优势在于其简单性、能够提供股票的增长和股息以及债券的稳定收益，以及其在不确定未来时作为中性投资组合的适用性。 John Bilton: 更高的利率和更低的股票估值提高了60/40投资组合的预期收益。 Vincent Dillard, David Kelly: 一些分析师认为60/40投资组合的收益率过低，不足以满足投资者的目标收益，建议增加其他资产类别，例如外国股票、价值股和新兴市场股票。 Vivek Paul: BlackRock建议客户目前减少私人市场的投资比例，认为私人市场应该比大多数投资者目前持有的比例更大。

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Shownotes Transcript

What are the pros and cons of a simple stock and bond portfolio consisting of two funds or ETFs? Given U.S. stocks have significantly outperformed the rest of the world over the past decade, is there even a role for non-U.S. stocks in your investment portfolio?

Topics covered include:

  • How have 60/40 and similar portfolios performed over the long-term
  • What are the advantages and disadvantages of a 60/40 portfolio
  • What is the expected return of a 60/40 portfolio and what should be included?
  • What has contributed to U.S. stocks outperforming non-U.S. stocks over the past decade
  • Why have emerging markets stocks done so poorly
  • What has to happen for U.S. stocks to continue to outperform non-U.S. stocks

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Show Notes

BlackRock vs. Goldman in the Fight Over 60/40 by James Mackintosh—The Wall Street Journal)

Battered 60-40 portfolios face another challenging year by Adrienne Klasa—Financial Times)

The case for the 60/40 portfolio in equities and bonds by Erin Browne—Financial Times)

Investors wonder if the 60/40 portfolio has a future by Michael Mackenzie—Financial Times)

Has the tried and tested 60/40 strategy soured? by Maya Bhandari—Financial Times)

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