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cover of episode Sick and Aging Trees: GSE, MBA, ICE

Sick and Aging Trees: GSE, MBA, ICE

2025/1/10
logo of podcast Money Stuff: The Podcast

Money Stuff: The Podcast

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GiveWell
K
Katie Greifeld
M
Matt Levine
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Matt Levine: 我认为房利美和房地美股票是一个有潜力的投资机会。比尔·阿克曼的策略是押注特朗普政府会将这两家公司私有化。虽然目前政府拥有这两家公司,但这并不一定意味着坏事。政府可以继续持有,也可以选择私有化以获利。私有化后,股东将获得巨额回报,但也有可能面临未来的风险。关于股票代码长度的讨论,我澄清了一些误解。虽然通常情况下,股票代码最多只有四个字母,但在特殊情况下,例如不同类型的股票,可以添加第五个字母。印第安纳大学凯利商学院的MBA学生在课堂项目中,通过与一家高尔夫球场开发公司合作,最终促成了一项真实的高尔夫度假村开发项目,并因此引发了诉讼。这说明了商业案例研究与现实的结合,以及学生们在实践中的创造力和机遇。 关于可可市场,好时公司试图从ICE期货美国交易所仓库中提取大量可可豆,这反映了可可市场供应紧张的现状。由于极端天气和老化树木的影响,可可产量减少,导致价格上涨。好时公司希望获得更多可可豆以满足生产需求,这可能是因为他们无法从其他渠道获得足够的供应。这突显了商品市场中供需关系的动态变化,以及大型公司在应对市场波动时的策略。 Katie Greifeld: 我同意Matt Levine关于房利美和房地美私有化可能性的观点。这将对股东有利,但政府也可能从中获利。关于MBA案例研究,我认为这是一个有趣的案例,它展示了课堂学习与现实世界之间的联系。学生们在课堂项目中展现了他们的商业头脑和实践能力。关于可可市场,我同意Matt Levine的观点,可可市场供应紧张,好时公司试图从交易所仓库中提取可可豆是应对市场波动的一种策略。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What is the current status of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and why is there optimism about their privatization?

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) that were taken over by the U.S. government in 2008 after their collapse due to bad mortgage bets. They have been under government conservatorship for over 12 years. Bill Ackman, a hedge fund manager, has recently bought shares in both companies and is advocating for their return to private hands, arguing that they could be worth significantly more if privatized. This has reignited optimism among investors, especially with the possibility of a new Trump administration prioritizing their privatization.

Why does Bill Ackman believe Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could be privatized under a Trump administration?

Bill Ackman believes that the Trump administration, if re-elected, would prioritize the privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. He argues that the government cannot continue to own these entities indefinitely and that returning them to private hands would unlock significant value for shareholders. Ackman has been actively tweeting about this to influence both retail investors and policymakers, suggesting that privatization could lead to a 1200% return on investment.

What are the potential risks of privatizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac?

Privatizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could reintroduce the risk of them failing again in the future, as they would no longer have explicit government backing. If they were to fail, the government might need to bail them out again, leading to a situation where private shareholders benefit from the upside while the government bears the downside. Additionally, mortgage rates could be affected if the implicit government guarantee is removed, potentially making mortgages more expensive.

What happened in the Indiana University MBA class project involving a golf resort in Puerto Rico?

MBA students at Indiana University's Kelly School of Business were tasked with creating a business plan for a golf resort in Puerto Rico as part of their capstone project. They consulted with a golf resort development company, Discovery Land Companies, which then decided to take over the project, outbidding the original developer. The original developer, who was an alumnus of the school, sued the students, the professor, and Discovery Land Companies for $1 to $2 billion, claiming his idea was stolen.

Why is Hershey's seeking to purchase a significant amount of cocoa from ICE Futures U.S.?

Hershey's is seeking to purchase over 90,000 metric tons of cocoa from ICE Futures U.S. due to severe supply shortages caused by extreme weather and aging cocoa trees. This move would allow Hershey's to take physical delivery of cocoa beans from exchange warehouses, which is unusual but necessary given the current market conditions. Hershey's has previously made similar moves during the COVID-19 pandemic when commodity markets were disrupted.

What is the significance of the cocoa futures market being in backwardation?

The cocoa futures market being in backwardation indicates that the current demand for physical cocoa is extremely high, driving up the price of near-term futures compared to longer-term contracts. This situation reflects the tight supply of cocoa beans, with Hershey's seeking to secure immediate supply by taking delivery from exchange warehouses. Backwardation suggests that the market expects supply conditions to improve in the future, but not in the near term.

Shownotes Transcript

Katie and Matt discuss the return of the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac trade, a business school class project that came true in real life, and taking cocoa out of commodity exchange warehouses.

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