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cover of episode The Oil Industry's Double Whammy of Higher Costs and Lower Prices

The Oil Industry's Double Whammy of Higher Costs and Lower Prices

2025/5/15
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J
Joe Wiesenthal
P
Peter Tertzakian
T
Tracy Holloway
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Joe Wiesenthal: 我认为贸易相关的头条新闻暂时平静下来，现在是时候了解一下受影响的行业的新环境了。共和党总统执政期间，石油行业的环境往往不太好，尽管人们可能认为亲石油的总统会带来好环境。今年年初以来，石油价格表现不佳，50美元一桶的油价与美国的能源主导地位是不相容的。 Tracy Holloway: 我认为投资者和高管们有90天的时间来喘口气，思考新的环境。除了供应外，OPEC还在增产，而且所有投入成本都在上升，特别是来自受关税影响的美国公司。 Peter Tertzakian: 我认为在当前62.96美元的油价水平下，石油行业勉强盈利，高成本生产商开始退出市场。在当前油价水平下，低产油井开始关闭，董事会开始讨论这些价格的持久性。2017-18年左右，“石油末日”的说法开始出现，这影响了投资者的情绪。电动汽车的兴起让投资者认为石油行业即将终结。投资者要求石油公司返还现金流，并将资金投入其他行业，因为他们认为石油行业是夕阳产业。俄乌冲突后，地缘政治因素回归，油价上涨，ESG叙事衰落，但最近的油价下跌再次改变了投资者的情绪。石油不会在10年内消失，但2010年代的独特条件，包括技术进步和廉价资本，可能不会再现。OPEC Plus最近决定增加石油产量，这引发了人们对他们是否试图夺回市场份额的质疑。由于缺乏低通胀和低利率，复制2010年代的低成本资本时代是不可能的。石油和天然气公司的高管们现在更加精明，他们会观察情况，因为他们以前见过这种情况。股东决定石油行业是否会全力扩张，但目前的共识是不扩张。特朗普政府发起的贸易战和对钢铁征收的关税最终将导致石油领域的投入成本上升。石油领域的通货膨胀将会出现，更高的钢铁产品价格将在今年渗透到石油领域。投入成本上升会降低62美元油价的经济性。

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This chapter explores the cyclical nature of the oil industry, particularly the pattern of lower profits under Republican administrations despite pro-oil rhetoric. The discussion touches upon the impact of lower oil prices, increased input costs due to tariffs, and the challenges in securing funding.
  • Republican presidents have often resulted in lower oil prices and profits.
  • Tariffs have raised the cost of components for energy production.
  • The funding environment for oil companies is currently challenging.

Shownotes Transcript

The new administration has a "drill, baby, drill" mantra and a much more liberal attitude towards the oil and gas industry than the last one. But that hasn't translated into great profits for the oil industry itself. Crude prices have sunk and tariffs have raised the cost of components for companies trying to get energy out of the ground. So, what's the future for the industry? And who is actually making money right now? In this episode, we talk to longtime energy industry veteran Peter Tertzakian, the founder and president of Studio.energy, which consults with various industry players. We discuss the state of the overall North American energy industry, the prospects of peak onshore oil production in the United States, pipeline politics, and why liquified natural gas is expected to be the hydrocarbon of the future. Read more:Say Hello to ‘Nil, Baby, Nil’ in the Oil Patch)Trump’s Thirst for Cheap Oil Irks an Industry He Loves to Praise) Only http://Bloomberg.com) subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots)

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