Are we finally at the end stages of this harsh housing market? With housing inventory increasing, mortgage rates steadily falling, and inflation cooling, we might be returning to a much healthier time to buy a house. But one of these improvements we’ve seen over the past year could begin reversing, and that’s creating some interesting future scenarios. One that even we’re surprised to hear as we bring on top housing market analyst Logan Mohtashami.

Logan has referred to 2022-2023’s housing market as “savagely unhealthy,” but he’s a bit more optimistic now that we’re seeing relief. While we’re still not at 2019 inventory levels (which were already low), we’re slowly getting there. However, we could see the positive inventory trend start to reverse, leading to even more affordability problems for homebuyers. So what has to happen for affordability to see meaningful improvement?

Today, Logan is giving us his take on housing inventory, where mortgage rates could be heading, and why we may NOT see a spike in home prices even if rates fall significantly (something most analysts are bullish on).

In This Episode We Cover

Logan’s housing market, mortgage rate, and inventory forecast

Why our increasing housing inventory could reverse once rates start to fall

The one thing holding affordability back and whether Logan has hopes of it improving

Why watching the labor market and jobs numbers will help you predict mortgage rates

Were we wrong about the “lower rates = higher home prices” premise?

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Find Investor-Friendly Lenders

See Dave at BPCON2024 in Cancun!

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

Learn More from Logan

On The Market Podcast 86 - Here’s What Will Cause Mortgage Rates to Finally Fall w/Logan Mohtashami

Know the Ins-and-Outs of Real Estate with “Real Estate by the Numbers"

Jump to topic:

00:00 Intro

02:05 The "Baby Pivot" Stage

05:46 The Home Sales Recession

08:49 Housing Inventory Update

15:30 Rates Will Decline MORE If...

19:59 Mortgage Rate Forecast

24:48 When Will Affordability Improve?

29:05 Biggest Takeaways

Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-252

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What Happens When Rates REALLY Drop? Probably Not What You Think w/Logan Mohtashami 38:55 Share

On The Market

Shownotes Transcript

What Happens When Rates REALLY Drop? Probably Not What You Think w/Logan Mohtashami