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cover of episode Edward Fishman on Economic Warfare: The New Age of Power Dynamics | EP 577

Edward Fishman on Economic Warfare: The New Age of Power Dynamics | EP 577

2025/2/25
logo of podcast Passion Struck with John R. Miles

Passion Struck with John R. Miles

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John R. Miles: 我对中国在全球电信网络中的影响力深感担忧,这可能会在冲突中切断我们的通讯。 我一直在思考911事件后美国在阿富汗和伊拉克的战争,以及如果戈尔当选总统,这些战争是否会发生变化。 我对中国试图通过建立替代性经济体系来挑战美国的主导地位感到担忧,并且关注中国可能通过武器化其供应链来对美国实施报复。 我提出了“重要性沙漠”的概念,指的是那些在全球贸易中被边缘化和孤立的国家。 我提出了几个假设性场景,例如人工智能驱动的制裁计划、与中国的全面冲突以及中国推出与美元竞争的全球数字货币。 Edward Fishman: 我认为我们正处于经济战时代,制裁、关税和出口管制已成为大国竞争的主要方式。 经济意义上的“瓶颈点”是指全球经济中某个国家占据主导地位,且几乎没有冗余的领域,从而能够通过经济手段施加影响。 美国在经济战中占据主导地位,这主要源于三个因素:经济全球化导致的经济相互依赖、对军事行动的政治抵制以及大国竞争的加剧。 斯图尔特·莱维是美国现代金融战的奠基人,他利用企业对监管和声誉风险的考量来实施制裁。 经济战的伦理困境在于,虽然它可以避免军事冲突,但也可能对平民造成人道主义伤害,因此需要谨慎使用。 尼克松政府取消美元与黄金挂钩是美元霸权的开始,而非结束,这导致了美元在全球经济中的主导地位。 中国试图建立替代性经济体系,这可能会削弱美国在全球经济中的主导地位。 对俄罗斯的经济制裁也扰乱了全球能源市场,这表明经济制裁的成本可能超过收益。 对中国半导体产业的制裁并非万无一失,但可以为美国在人工智能领域保持一定优势。 为了应对经济战,美国需要加强国内制造能力,并与盟友建立安全的国际供应链。 全球经济可能分裂成相互竞争的经济集团,这类似于企业内部不同部门之间的竞争。 在经济意义上,整个国家可能会变成经济沙漠,与全球贸易隔绝,停滞不前。 经济战可能导致某些国家出现政治冷漠和经济困难,甚至可能加强专制统治。 俄罗斯的人口下降可能是普京采取侵略行动的原因之一,因为他认为现在是实现其帝国野心的最佳时机。 在经济战决策过程中,官员们会权衡各种因素,并试图避免与核大国的军事冲突。 美国需要建立一个专门机构来应对经济战,并培养相关人才。 人工智能驱动的制裁计划可以提高经济战的精确性和有效性,但也可能导致对发展中国家的过度制裁。 如果美国与中国发生全面冲突,中国可能会首先攻击美国的电信网络或对台湾实施海军封锁。 如果中国率先创造出与美元竞争的全球数字货币,这将极大地削弱美国利用金融制裁作为武器的能力。 在2040年,数字货币很可能成为最重要的经济武器。

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Shownotes Transcript

In this episode of Passion Struck, host John R. Miles welcomes Edward Fishman, a former top State Department sanctions official and author of the groundbreaking book Choke Points: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare). The conversation delves into the evolving landscape of global power dynamics, where economic tools such as sanctions, export controls, and financial dominance have become the primary instruments of statecraft in the 21st century.

Fishman explains the concept of "choke points," which refers to critical areas in the global economy where one country holds significant leverage, allowing it to exert influence without military intervention. He discusses how the U.S. has pioneered the use of economic warfare, particularly in response to the rise of authoritarian regimes in Russia and China, and the implications of this shift for international relations.

The episode explores the historical context of economic warfare, the ethical dilemmas faced by policymakers, and the potential consequences of overusing economic power. Fishman emphasizes the importance of understanding these dynamics as nations navigate a fractured global economy, where the competition for resources and influence is increasingly defined by economic rather than military means.

**Full shownotes here: **https://passionstruck.com/edward-fishman-on-the-new-age-of-power-dynamics/)

Key takeaways:

  • Factors contributing to the rise of economic warfare include:

  • The hyper-globalization of the 1990s leading to economic interdependence.

  • Political shifts post-9/11 that made military action less appealing.

  • The resurgence of great power competition, particularly with Russia and China.

  • The implications of sanctions and economic tools, emphasizing their dual nature as both offensive and defensive strategies.

  • The ethical dilemmas associated with economic warfare, particularly the humanitarian impact on civilian populations.

  • The potential for a fractured global economy, with nations becoming isolated economic deserts due to competing economic blocks.

  • The importance of maintaining economic security and the risks of over-reliance on economic sanctions are emphasized.

  • The dangers of a chaotic global economy where only great powers set the terms, potentially leading to military conflicts.

Connect with Edward Fishman: https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/edward-fishman/)

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**Next on Passion Struck:**In the next episode of Passion Struck, John sits down with Katherine Morgan Schaffler, a renowned psychotherapist and author of The Perfectionist Guide to Losing Control, a Path to Peace and Power. Katherine challenges the conventional view of perfectionism, suggesting that it can be harnessed as a personal superpower rather than a flaw. Don't miss this enlightening conversation that could transform your relationship with perfectionism.

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