Can Crypto Keep Surviving The Market Volatility? | OSF and Mando | REKT Vision
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Joined by the public guys a little bit later, but it's been another week where Bitcoin is exactly where we left it. I think it's down around 1%, I think. We're back at 82.5k basically as we go live. I think we're around 83k last week. Although that is slightly deceptive because this week it really did feel like an incredibly volatile week. How have you been faring, Osef? Yeah, I mean...

If we recap what we said last week, we may or may not have said, if you want to take a punt on stuff that isn't Bitcoin, that is down 90-95%, look at meme coins, potentially, and maybe even alts. I don't think alts have really moved that much. I mean...

Solana has outperformed versus Bitcoin for sure. AVAX has, I think. So maybe altcoins are up, have outperformed. Bitcoin dominance, I think, has dropped a little bit. Barely. It's going higher, man. It could be just memes. I think Bitcoin outperformed a lot, even. I think it really just pins all those meme coins. So Fartcoin is up 113% in a week. What else? Pepe. Pepe is up 3% in a week.

So actually, just looking through, it really is just fart coin. Mog is up 10%. Called that one on the show, I think. If anyone followed me on that one, now at 900 million. I think it was at 350 when we did the show. Yeah, I think it was about 400-ish. It just broke into the 400s. But yeah, look, I don't think that's going to be the only one. You know, like I've just...

It's increasingly, and we can recap the week, obviously, because a lot's happened for Bitcoin to move just 1% in a week. But I think for those who are more bullishly inclined like myself, there's still plenty of other coins down 90 to 95% just sitting there. And they're up today, but they're just sitting there massively lower and

I do think you will see a rebound out of all of this. And I do think all those tokens present a really interesting buying opportunity for a punt. And if you bought Fartcoin last week, you've doubled your money in a week in a market that's been very tough to trade, to be quite frank. So I think this is sort of the time to really be switched on and trying to identify interesting things here to get long where they've pulled back massively, basically, is what I'm trying to say.

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Yeah, it was $4.50, but still, 2x in a week is not so bad. This time last week, we had not seen the full extent of the tariff sell-off. I think this time last week, we were both talking about what we thought would happen, and I have to give you credit here. You really did call it. I didn't catch that. Sorry, could you just...

You called it, I bought Farcon, all right? We're both winners. My view was that there would be no deals. And if there was, then it wouldn't be with China. And that you would still see massive money printing coming out of Asia, in particular off the back of this. Maybe not from the Fed, but definitely from Japan and China and maybe Europe.

I think that was partly up until about Wednesday. That really did feel like the view. And that was kind of what people were talking about being bullish for Bitcoin war again, was just global M2 going higher. I didn't think Trump would kind of walk it all back. Whether that was out of the deal or that he got spooked by the bond market remains to be seen. I'm kind of of the view that it was the bond market that, that changed his opinion and,

But you thought that he'd blink. And he did. He did. Obviously, from this very, very aggressive position, he kind of walked a little back. There's still going to be decent tariffs. So we're going to get 10% tariffs for everyone, basically. But the higher levels of tariffs are being delayed for 90 days while deals get worked on.

And we've really seen an escalation on is China. Now, China is still a huge bit of of imports into the US. So I think the effective tariff rate is still up a lot because of how big they are, respective of total imports. But yeah, what did you make of all this? Like even when it was like really bad midweek, did you still think that he was going to blink?

Yeah. So, I mean, in fairness, I think on Friday, last Friday, I was calling for some sort of de-escalation. And I think after the show is when things did actually get worse. So there was like another drop off since the show. And obviously Monday, you know, Sunday was when we had a big puke in crypto as well. I just think it's, you're not going to, it's just not going to be the case where you're just going to get Trump saying 120% tariffs on China and China raising it to 200% and Trump going to 300%. Like,

It's just, it's just, they're just these basically fake numbers. I mean, they're not fake because they're in effect, but it's not sustainable to have something like that. And I think one of the problems or one of my assessments of the current situation is a lot of people are like, oh,

you can't ever predict Trump. He's a lunatic or he's crazy. He's crazy enough to go ahead and do it, et cetera. And I think people just seem to assume that he is the one single decision maker in all of this, or maybe, you know, Xi is one single decision maker and Xi Jinping is one single decision maker in all of this. And it's just not the case. Like there's obviously people advising Trump. There's obviously other stakeholders, the people who've donated massively to the Republican party. Like,

There's people putting on political pressure, people putting on financial pressure. There's a lot of pressure coming on from all angles. And presumably, a lot of the pressure is, hey, man, this is a good experiment, but you have to stand down or someone has to stand up. Something has to happen here because this is not sustainable. And eventually something gives way. My hunch was that it would be Trump who would give way because I think

For me, what I said last week is like, it feels like it's easiest for him to say, oh, we've got some, we've got three or four better deals with these other people and we'll pause the tariffs on the rest. And then we'll sort of like stand down, but we won't say we sit down. And then he could say, look, look what I did. I got down and negotiated better deals for America overall. I'm the master negotiator, et cetera, and try and pawn it off as like some sort of negotiation tactic, which the net outcome may be is they do get better deals for the US, but he probably, you know,

significantly worsens international relations with many different countries and probably loses a bit of credibility in public. But I think it's just clear to me that that was what had to happen, especially after Powell's comments as well. Powell saying that

It wouldn't cut rates. I'm curious to see what happens now, given the pretty big decent inflation miss, CPI miss across the board. I'm curious to see what happens there. But power not backing down and China seemingly not really caring. And with there being some sort of negotiations, some sort of talks with other countries, regardless of if they're important or not, you can kind of just... My thought was like, you can just see this going one way because he's not just going to let

the market fall through the bed here. So I guess that's what happened. And it's been volatile since then because we had that move where NASDAQ was up 12% in a day, S&P 500, 9.5%. Then...

everything went back down like five or six percent yesterday and now it's back up again it's like it's pretty like whipsaw yeah it reminds me of covid price action it was you know it was that like this crazy crazy crazy price action but um it just shows me as 12 percent what third biggest day ever that's

mental and by the way that's with the current market cap where it is now like think about how many trillions of dollars that is now versus what it was when you know however long ago that last time it happened like this is insane amounts of money but to me it just showed me that i think the entire world suddenly got somehow got itself bearish on this because just like how scientific experts came out to talk about covid and everyone believed them probably some trade experts came out to talk about this and everyone believed them and people just panicked and sold and then

When you have these great big squeezes, it shows you, I think, that the market was short, the market was under risk and people thought, oh, actually, this isn't that bad. He's not going to go crazy and go for it. So I don't know. My assessment of last week, as I've mentioned, last Friday was that I think people were just losing their marbles. And I think it's quite clear that people did lose their marbles and hopefully they've refound them.

Well, I think they have to a certain extent. I think we should probably talk about why potentially he had to walk it all back. And that seemingly was kind of on market. I think that Trump ideally was happy to continue in this sort of strongman war against Xi Jinping. And then it felt as though

Right from the start of last week, bond yields started to go higher. And this is like a, let's say, a semi-professional organization in real vision. But normally you would know that stocks are going higher. Normally you would see bond yields go higher. And then when stocks go lower, bond yields would also go lower.

You have this terrible scenario unfolding on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, where the 10-year has kept on going higher. And a lot of people pointed to unwinds of big basis trades that were happening. Some people going to China actually selling, although some other people went to Japan. If you don't know, about 30% of all US government debt is held

by other countries uh japan is is number one um and i think china's up there in the top two or three and so that was kind of the ace in the hole because obviously this is what elon's doge has all been about you know getting the bonnials down and that was kind of what the narrative was at the start even look we're going to focus on the 10 year now we're going to focus on the 10 you want to get down to three percent and then we're going to refinance everything

Once that started to unravel, it suddenly seemed like this actually could get slightly even worse because the fiscal deficits would get pretty out of hand if bond yields continued to go higher, let's say to 5%, 7%, 5%, 6%, 7%. And that seemingly was the tap on the shoulder on Wednesday night as things started to escalate. That has been reported that maybe...

cause the administration to think, right, we need to do a deal. We've also seen in the last week gold push on to an all-time high, every day it's higher, and partly that is also related to the fact the dollar has really broken down. Now, that dollar breaking down should limit some of the impact of these tariffs, right? Like,

the dollar having a weak week. So if you go to like true flation at the moment, true flation keeps hitting lower and lower figures for inflation. Even though right now there was a report today with that, that consumer expectation for inflation are now like seven or 8% for next year. So there's a strange scenario going on right now. Does the bond market scare you? Because that's the one thing I think a lot of people are focusing on. Even today,

The 10 years higher. Let me bring it up. But like, it's worrying a lot of people that. That is the dicey thing, because there was a school of thought that this whole exercise by Trump was had a hidden motive to, you know, reduce bond yields. And the results, I don't know why. I mean, I don't know why he would.

why that would have been the plan by attacking china who obviously owns like a shitload of treasury so that doesn't i'm not sure yeah i'm not sure i'm a buyer of that view but um what's happened is obviously bondios have gone through the roof like 30 year i think hit five percent multiple times 10 years 10 years pretty much at the highs of since it happened right so this is the thing it's like

I think there's an expectation, at least in the administration, that this would now, after the deal was made, this would come down. And actually, you've seen it kind of kicked on again. And that makes, that's, I think, driving gold higher because people are thinking, wow, has this actually affected dollar strength in general? Has this affected, you know, the US as a power here? Or is this just like unwinds of trades? Is this just that continuing? Because if this goes up to 5% again,

It's really not going to feel that good that they even got into this in the first place. Maybe part of this is also that he's kind of semi-walked back the walk back, you know? I mean, there's still tyrants on the line, but it's funny. I think it's what a lot of people are focusing on. Yeah. It's funny because, you know, we were at like 4.8% on the 10 year in the middle of January, but

That seemed to have not caused that much concern because I think since then, all this stuff has happened where people have been like, oh, now they're going to cut rates and now, you know, yields should go lower. And it's actually gone higher against, I guess, the market intuition. And I think that's what's freaking people out a bit. I mean, people are out there dumping treasuries, obviously, and I have my suspicions as to who that might be. But it does put like...

kind of accusatory like a yeah no stopping dumping treasuries stop jumping tenure michael um but um yeah it does feel like that was the main i think that was the main jab in the ribs for trump which is like shit we can't really have this like double fisting of stock market going lower and bond yields going materially higher at the same time it's pretty bad for risk basically yeah uh

Yeah, I do think that was a... It did call a lot of people off guard. And I think in the last couple of days, this strength in gold, which had had a bit of a wobbly start to the week, pushed on. And I think now there is a lot of people even saying, this is the time for Bitcoin. This is the time for crypto here. Particularly Bitcoin, because it's... If this really is a shift in... However small, shift in dollar power,

And at the same time, you're in a world where there's still potential for trade wars here. It's not like other currencies necessarily look that amazing. The only way for them to get out of it is just by printing money. So you're going to have massive debasement in various other places as a solution to a trade war.

Gold and Bitcoin suddenly become very attractive again. And Bitcoin has shown remarkable strength. Not as strong as Fartcoin, but it is showing remarkable strength here, kind of no matter what happens. Now, people have been looking for a catalyst to take us out, you know, and you always say, you know, price forgets narrative. And

We've, on Real Vision, obviously the number one chart that gets brought on is this 12-week lag of money printing. Is this the narrative that takes us to that, takes us higher? Because it's kind of strong enough, I think,

that if it starts going higher and people start to believe that that's the narrative that's taking us higher, we could start to recorrelate pretty strongly with global liquidity on this way higher. I guess we have the correlations kind of already still there, but we will start to push on higher here. Do you believe we're going to get a chart here that looks like the global M2 with the 12-month tag up to 100K? I think so. I have my suspicions that we will do so. I think...

that you cannot ignore Bitcoin's strength in the last two or three weeks. I know people have spoken about it a lot, and it was definitely more pronounced on a couple of days than others, but it's held up very well versus NASDAQ, which is down, what, 20%? Was down 20% year-to-date. So in the past, if you had a move like that in the NASDAQ, you'd think, oh man, Bitcoin's going to be down 50%, 60%, 70%. This time it's held up very well. So I think it's hard to ignore its relative strength within...

the bucket of risk assets, which usually means when things rebound, it kicks on materially higher and starts to outperform. And that's what it feels like the setup is here right now. And once again, that seems to corroborate with this global liquidity chart. And once again, I still think that seems to time up. These things will seem to time up with

the FOMC, which we get in May. And before we had the whole, like, before the tariffs escalated, I think we were speaking a lot about, like, let's see what the data is. If it's weak, we maybe start to see power changing the stream a little bit.

at the next FOMC. And the data has been mixed. We obviously had a beat on payrolls, but that's a pretty big CPI miss, I think, across the board. The month-on-month number, the call number, the headline number. And I guess we'll see what PCE is, which I think is apparently the Fed's preferred measure of inflation at the end of this month. But it does

you are seeing a decent slowdown in inflation still amid a relatively strong market. But tariffs is obviously the main question on Powell's mind, and they don't want to cut rates in a world where tariffs start coming into effect. So if between now and the next FOMC, there seems to be some sort of resolution or it's a bit more on the back burner or whatever it is, I don't know. I don't think we'll see full resolutions across the board, but you may see some

trade deals and maybe some some some of the bigger you know china u.s trade deal which i believe will happen at some point in the next eight weeks um call me crazy but i did eight eight weeks was eight weeks from today you're so right last week this is this is me doubling quits in that one double the quits eight weeks some sort of china u.s trade deal um how long it takes to do a trade deal

Do you know... I would not... ...a trade deal with anyone, basically, since Brexit. I would not underestimate... I guess, yeah, I guess it depends. Okay, a trade deal may be strong, but I guess it depends, like, some sort of agreement with China, which maybe either is perceived as a trade deal or perceived as, like, hold fire for a period of time where the markets feel like they can relax. That's something I think you'll see. And I think just as quickly as this has escalated,

I think it can deescalate very quickly as well because again, I'm just looking at 2018. This is my views on this time around stem from what happened in 2018. And it was very similar. It was just like,

trump and xi jinping like going crazy at each other and then the next thing you know trump would there'll be a trump tweet saying i received a beautiful letter from chi and we had you know we hashed it out and had a few beers and you know had dinner with the wives and we decided that we know we're cool and and we'll come to an agreement like that that sort of stuff like that's like the next type of the next kind of like thing i see happening and

um if you have something like that alongside continued weaker inflation numbers then i think you can see powell um be a bit more dovish and that's when that's when it's like risk on i think that's what's like super risk on that's like the yeah goldilocks thing we're hoping for i guess yeah i think powell is kind of in a tough spot because of just the because of what you said he has to wait and see you know he can only really do

QE by another name or like we capitalized the banks or some repo capitalization this week. He kind of has a way in the city. I think this is just general sense across global markets right now. It's just is the bond market basically saying that even if that deal happens now, we can go wider? Is this a loss of faith slightly in US hegemony and

let's just live in a world where let's say the 10-year goes to 5, 5.5, 6%, and Powell still can't really do anything. Is a trade deal... I just don't even know if a trade deal brings that down. You know what I mean? As always with the bond markets, everyone's always worried about spirals. Obviously, I don't think the US is ever going to go bankrupt or anything like that, but when bond markets go and there's

people are noticing suddenly that the Fed can't actually react as quick as it would need to, at least for the next few months. It's got to be a bit wait and see here, because if consumer expectations of inflation hit 7%, even if true inflation is at 1%, you can't just go, hey, we're going to cut rates here. Yeah. I will concede that bond market is the one thing that scares me. Like,

when I was waking up to see stocks down five, six, 10%, whatever last week, wasn't really that worried. But then when I looked at the 10 year yield, I was a little bit like, Oh, that one kind of like felt that punch sort of thing that, that does, that is the thing that concerns me because it's behaving in a way. And I think the concerning thing is that it's behaving in a way which we would not expect, um, which means there's probably some technical reason. There's probably some deeper reason to it. Um,

And those are the things that worry me when there is some weird, deep technical reason which can cause things to behave differently. And so that, to me, is the biggest concern for me or the biggest worry I'm worried about. What I've been looking at is credit spreads. This is our old market, obviously, as well. And those have kind of widened out to shy 500 bps now. Is that a crossover? And CDX. CDX as well.

I think it's the 450 area. I mean, you're seeing here... You're talking about how your company is having to refinance themselves at like 10% in a world where they could also be massively affected by trade war and tariffs. That's not a great market there. It's not. I mean, I can't say I'm that surprised as to where it is because we're sitting here with, as you said, like 10-year at almost 4.6%. And

stocks down 20% or 15-20% year-to-date, that's categorically really bad for credit. High bond yields, low equities. I bet high yield and distress is pretty interesting to trade right now. Of course, man. I think Q1 was the highest ever bankruptcy rate in the US for many, many years. And if I was a high yield bond analyst right now, I'd be

I'd be worried about a big, big tick up in defaults here because it's just unclear if the Fed, when the Fed will bail you out. Like, I'm not saying that they won't because if it gets like cataclysmic, of course they will, you know? But from now until cataclysm, I don't know if the Fed can move quickly in a world where with, and that's what Powell basically said as well. He was like, you know, I can't do anything.

I can't do anything right now. So that's the thing that worries me. I think in that sort of world, if Bitcoin sold off again, I think people will buy it. I don't even think it would be an outperformance sort of world. I think it would be V-shaped and then ripped higher. That's my kind of view on stuff. I think people now are looking at this and going like, right, I held up really well during that. And everything now points to gold and...

and Bitcoin being good trades. And if it just catches an equity correlation for a couple of days, you're meant to just buy it. If you have a world where we print some more low inflation numbers, tariffs deescalate because they either have a trade deal or they have some sort of agreement where it's like a hold fire agreement for, let's say, the remainder of this year or potentially even longer. And...

Maybe you have some more developments on the crypto side of things with Bitcoin Reserve, et cetera. That's still there in the background. I think people have kind of even forgotten about that now. They've gone from being too bullish to discounting it now. If you have these three things happen, where do you think Bitcoin can go to, number one? And number two, where do you think Bitcoin dominance goes? And do you have a real risk on moment like that for global assets and within crypto,

Do we see another meme coin run? Do we see an AI run? Do we see alts run? We've been saying this for two or three weeks now. I'm still looking at the alts down, alts which include meme coins, AI, everything, just everything but alts, down 60%, 70%, 80%, 90% while Bitcoin has stayed strong. I just can't help myself to some of these coins. It's a key hunt, but... I feel as though, although...

We called it all right, you know, the last few months in terms of when to at least go a bit more risk off and then fully Bitcoin or maximalism. I feel like we've just flipped a little bit in our Bitcoin dominance views. And I think you're bullish on Bitcoin, but you're like, oh, but now's the time to punt. Yeah, sorry. I kind of now feel as though Bitcoin dominance...

could keep going. I was a bit less certain on that. I like Bitcoin just for risk reward, but I was a bit less certain that that would be the one. And then now, I don't know. I kind of feel like in that world where higher bond yields potentially close to 10% here, then that's a...

That's a difficult world to be bullish, a bunch of altcoins, in my opinion. You've just got to be bullish on Bitcoin. I think owning Bitcoin has been a great trade relatively for a while, for the last, let's say, three to six months. But my view is I think the current levels are such that I want to be more risk-on and

When I want to be more risk-on, I feel like I benchmark myself to Bitcoin rather than benchmarking myself to, I don't know, stocks or even just like dollar amount, which makes me think like I want to own the stuff that's going to just potentially go a lot higher. Like just how like meme coins went crazy in 24 or, you know, you had that moment for AI coins at the back end of last year. I think...

If we do get a really risk-con environment, I do think, and maybe Bitcoin dominance still rises, but you see, you know, you're kind of like having this week, like Bitcoin dominance rose, but a lot of meme coins are up. I think you're going to see something that people will gravitate towards, whether it's meme coins again, whether it's AI coins again, I'm not sure. Those would be my two picks. But I think that's where like, I think there's a good chance, decent chance of like a 10X trade here and some of this stuff.

And Bitcoin isn't a 10X trade here on a six-month timeframe. But I do think there are other coins out there which have 10X potential, obviously materially high risk. And if things go wrong,

they could drop another 90%. But I feel like this is just a really good spot. I still feel like it's a good spot to buy risk. And we bounced from last week, but we're not up that much. Some of these coins have rebounded 30%, 40%, 50% since we spoke about them last week, but they're still down a lot. And they still, I think, have good multiple potential. Because I feel like I want to be more risk on. That to me means

moving some of my bitcoin positions into stuff that's higher risk with high potential upside but um you know obviously more downside yeah look the thing is the moment where you go more into alts sometimes you can dismiss it do you know what i mean and in there there is that moment where if bitcoin starts to go back up to like 90 100k even in a world where let's say equities go lower you know

And Bitcoin dominance goes high. There can't just be one day where they just do a four or five X, you know? And I think we could, that could happen. That could happen. So I agree with you. Like I'm not, that's why I bought some Farcoin last week, right? Like I, I felt like that one looked like a quilled spring. There are others which feel not dissimilar to that actually. And I think I agree with you, but yeah,

I also think that the first move here is still that Bitcoin dominance goes higher. I think the first move here is still that Bitcoin dominance can just continue. Part of that is obviously just ETH continually being outperformed. But I just think that I am not bullish, that bullish on macro, if the 10-year is acting like it's acting like that. That's a pretty fragile scenario. And

you need monetary policy to be able to deal with that. And I don't really know when that comes in in the U S so, so that's where we're at, but both think it's a good time to buy, but I guess I'm more Bitcoin dominance. Now we go, can go higher, higher, um, rather than old coins. Obviously I'd been in a few different things. I've still am, but I'm definitely more adding to Bitcoin bags here rather than anything else. Um,

Bitcoin is a world of its own. That thing is just feels a little bit peppy-ish, I would say, from last cycle up to 800 million now. I don't know if I'd buy it here because it's obviously up a ton, but it's definitely one I would continue to look at on dips. But yeah, there's a lot of stuff that's still beaten up. If Bitcoin goes to 90 to 100K, you just know what it's like. People start coming back in and

everyone starts wanting to gamble on stuff and I reckon yeah AI and memes you'll see the biggest gains no doubt I think a good strategy a very simplified strategy I think which don't hold me to it but I think if you look across the board here you'll see like Bitcoin's up Ether's up Sol's up and then look across like the altcoin market or the meme coin market and stuff and you'll see some coins that are down 90% are dead like they're not even moving don't have any volume

And you can probably say like, you know, give or take, they're probably as good as dead. Whereas there's some other coins where there's a lot of volume and they're up, they're up like 20% or 30%, 40%. And then they'll move back down with the market and then back up with the market. And so as long as that coin has volume, it means there's activity.

And so long as it's moving with a beta to the market, it means that you will have that beta to the market. So I think that's a good way of sussing out potential things to own here. If you're like, okay, I'm worried that I just don't want to buy something that's down 90% and dead forever. If you look at stuff that's doing volume on days like today, and maybe you don't buy it on a day like today when it's up a lot, but if you see us consistently doing volume on up days and down days, then I think

it's a good bet to say that that's going to move back up again with the market. And, you know, Farcoin is a great example of that because there's been a ton of volume in it, you know, ever since it came along, I think. So I still, you know, if you look at the AI market,

Like there's a lot of volume in AI agent coins again today, and they're all up 30, 40%. So that to me shows like there is life in that stuff. And if you get Bitcoin to 100K, I think there's a good chance, not guaranteed, but there's a good chance that stuff will move. And that's kind of how I'm identifying coins to buy here. Other than Ritz, right?

Other than our own stuff, right? And right. And after I go say what, what, what stuff. So like the stuff that I see a little bit around AI, obviously there was a coin virtual, which, which kind of led that, which got a buy-in assistant today. And obviously you've been bullish on AI 16 Z and there's fart coin. Um, there's arc as well, which has been mentioned in me, which is coming as well. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

Then in memes, I guess people are, I mean, they're reaching for the established ones first, but they're reaching for the established ones that aren't cared, seemingly. So it's like, on Solana, I would say maybe Bonk, just because there's obviously a correlation between that and Farquhar at the moment. Pengu? Is Pengu a buy here? Obviously they've been very, very busy. Mogg is down.

biblical amounts from the highs. Maybe that has another run. And then L1s, if you start to see activity come back, you could see it return to Solana, Sui, Sonic, which I've mentioned, ETH, AVAX, all having decent days today. It feels like some people are thinking the same as you. It feels as though maybe start buying some of the non-debt coins. Yeah, I think so. It's

What I would say is like, you probably don't need to FOMO in on days like today. And I think on days like last Friday or last Monday, when they're down a lot, those are the best times to buy. I think the nice thing about, well, in my opinion, the nice thing about this volatile market is you get good entry points and stuff you want to buy, but you have to have a bit of grit to buy in those disgusting days where it feels horrific. Like,

Sunday and that day. Incredible day trading environment, this market. If you just fade the moves. If you just say Bitcoin is going to 83K, no matter what, it's just a market trade. If you just don't listen to the news and just look at the price and just...

buy when it's down a lot and sell when it's up a lot then you'll make a lot of money that's kind of what I try and do I try not to get too engrossed in reading about what's going on because otherwise you start to develop theories in your head and then you start to get you know just keep narrative right yeah exactly I'm kind of saying like it does feel as that that if you're following correlations it's there with global them too now we haven't we have a chance maybe to shoot up

But if you just, and we now have the narrative that can kind of make that happen, in my opinion, which I didn't think we had for a little bit. I felt like we were looking for a catalyst about a month, two months ago, right? Where it was like, we're waiting for the Bitcoin Reserve. And then the Bitcoin Reserve was a bit of a disappointment. And then we might not see any sort of movement on that for like six months. So we're like, well, this chop now could go until June, right?

I don't know if we're coming out of it just yet, but I do think that I wouldn't want to bet that we're not. Let's put it that way. I would be owning Bitcoin here because the downside is capped, in my opinion, and there's a shot that this is the narrative that takes us out. In my opinion, I think we're in for one of those lovely summers of risk. That's what I think. What does that mean? I don't know.

Do you know just for those lovely summers where everything just goes up? Long nights, you know, looking at your crypto portfolio. That's why. Well, I kind of... You're a big viewer of... Like, Raoul, you're a big seasonal trader guy, aren't you? You think we trade with the seasons. I do. I think there is something to that. Selling May? Yeah, but it feels like the selling May was selling Jan this year. So...

I'll check the horoscope. Just see what the... Anything else you thought was interesting? Obviously, it was a very macro-focused week. I think we've kind of gone into stuff. Obviously, dollar lower, gold higher, stocks. I know you bought some stocks this week. I did. I bought some stocks for the first time in three years. Wild. Take us through that. What happened there?

Well, the real reason was that I basically wanted to buy more Bitcoin. And it's the first time I've actually started putting in fiat back into it. I've exhausted all my stables that I had. So

trying to transfer money from my Revolut account. And then Revolut basically decided to close down my account. So, and even though I've left the UK, I still have UK bank accounts, which all now have restrictions on how much you can transfer to crypto. So I wasn't, I basically was just couldn't transfer enough size to Coinbase and Gemini and whatnot to

much crypto so i was like okay what can i how do i just get me i was like i just need to get some risk on like how do i get just anything like give me how do i get some risk on just some sort of risk yeah i was trying to try to whack up my old like interactive broker's account that changed my phone number i couldn't log in and everything so i basically ended up having to put some money into like a managed fund which was like one of these like retail friendly like newbie investor type

where I'm paying like 20 bips. The most boomer fund you could find, basically. It's like I'm paying like 20 bips for them to manage this fund. And I had like a grad in Canary Wharf email me saying, hey, like, you know, let me know if we can chat about your investment goals and stuff. But it was the only way I could get on some risk. So I basically ended up, so I've got a bunch of money in this fucking like random managed fund, which is like, it is like,

basically the Nasdaq and it has decent allocation to AI and robotics and stuff as like emerging tech so I kind of like the breakdown but yeah it's not I would rather pick my own stocks and pick what I put it in pick what I put into but I had to that's the fastest way I could do it so well you got the risk on yeah that's what matters I was laughing at you on the day that you were you were it's fair you asked for it a little bit

uh on the day you are just before that big reversal of an asda you were calling it out on the timeline anyone embarrassed they did probably drop the biggest reversal ever but then it was up 12 percent so then i didn't say anything but uh there you go i'm glad i'm glad we've moved on to uh to stocks anyway we'll get guys on um

Let's bring on Andrew Parrish, otherwise known as AP Abacus, co-founder of Archpublic. Just remember, you guys can check out their algorithmic trading platform for free if you head over to realvision.com forward slash Arch. But anyways, Andrew, welcome back to the show. What's your take on the last week?

Well, my take in the last week is context, right? So here's the context. In 23 and 24, the S&P was up 24% and 25%.

Year to date, the S&P is down 9.8%. Okay. So it is comical to me as somebody that, you know, cut his teeth in Trad 5 for 20 years to watch the absolute just almost euphoric to some extent, depending on your politics, conversation.

conversations around, you know, markets are crashing, the world's coming to an end, this trade or that trade is going to, you know, set the world on fire. And yet, eight days ago, we were at the same exact level we are across basically every asset on the planet. So,

By the way, Bitcoin in 23 and 24 and where we sit today was effectively up 200%. Bitcoin's price on January 1st of 2023 was effectively $20,000.

So in the past two plus years, we're up 50% in traditional markets. We're up 200% with Bitcoin. And we're flat right now with Bitcoin over the past week-ish. And we're down, you know, let's call it 9% year to date on the S&P 500. So, you know, again, there's signal and then there's noise.

Right. The noise is deafening right now because every time you put the word Trump into a news headline, it gets more clicks. Every time you put Trump into a tweet or an ex post or whatever, it gets more clicks. So the noise is going to continue to be very, very loud. But the signal is something altogether different. So the signal with Bitcoin is continues to remain stable.

continues to be somewhat decoupled from traditional markets and stronger. And so, you know, it's pay attention to signal as opposed to noise because it paints a very different picture. You know, Joe Wiesenthal, you know, that's been a Bloomberg guy for a long, long time.

I mean, the guy is breathlessly tweeting on Sunday night, you know, the futures are down 6%. Again, it's remarkable to watch. It is remarkable to watch that everybody wants to be ahead of the next big move, right? And what happens every time in the markets is

Nobody is generally ahead of the big move. You never know when it's going to happen. You can't predict it. And so the idea is to just be correctly allocated to risk assets and to not be over allocated to risk assets, right? To be somewhat over.

diversified. You know, when we've gotten to a point, for example, on this show where we start the show with art going, yeah, it's, you know, how do we quantify what a risk asset is? Right. So, you know, maybe maybe fart coin is the new 10 year treasury. I don't know. Mando, your thoughts.

It feels as though that one's going up and one of them's going down. That's all I can say. For the last week, I know what I'd rather... They're both going up. Yield's up. Farcoin up. Yield's up. Yeah, look, I think this week has been... It's just been a solid week for Bitcoin. That's what I think. It really did prove itself this week that it's going to outperform Bitcoin.

Markets, obviously, are still down from all-time highs. It's still down 25%, 30%. But when you see how it didn't really ever break that 76.5K level support, obviously, intraday went lower, but on the dailies, it never did. And now it looks pretty strong on the bounce back, versus a lot of markets were lower, right? You had oil lower last week. You had bond yields, bonds lower last week, stocks lower last week.

dollar lower. It was not good. And yet, Bitcoin, okay, we're down 1%, but that is a good sign. It's just, I think the next four or five weeks will be, does it kick on? And

I think I've said, look, I think that I wouldn't want to not bet on that right now. It does feel as though the next four weeks is it's got a shot. It's got the best shots had in two, in two months, I think for, for, for, for a breakout and go back towards 90 to a hundred K and maybe push on from there. Um, but, uh,

But I guess getting out of these chops can still take a long time. So one of these... You know, I come back to something that Obi said last week, that, you know, this current environment...

again, the noise around it is very, very loud, but the actual reality versus, you know, 08, 09, or even 2020 with COVID is, is it's, it's, it's, you cannot compare it. You absolutely cannot compare it. And so, but at the same time, it's almost as if we're conditioned as humans to,

Again, it goes back to fear and greed, right? Like what's everybody tweeting about and talking about when we go through two years of, you know, continued asset levels, you know, rising in a significant way. You know, what do we have to talk about, right? But the minute that there's a turn, it's everybody turns into what they consider is their version of Nostradamus, right?

And how do I be the guy that calls the thing that happens that, you know, brings markets significantly lower and then is the guy that figures out at what point should you reinsert yourself and then we go higher so that that the human condition of fear and greed is.

It's moments like this where we realize that fear is a 10x emotion versus greed. It's not even close. In fact, we should stop using fear and greed index because you really can't equate the two. The signal associated with fear is so much more elevated than the signal associated with greed that

I'd love to explore that a little bit. So you said, yeah, I guess you do learn a lot more from the fear bit of it. But what specifically do you mean in terms of markets? You think you react better with fear? Yeah.

No, I think people do stupid stuff and say stupid stuff with fear. That's what I think. And I think we're watching it almost in real time on a daily basis over the past two weeks.

Right. Again, people are talking about, well, this trade's happening and this unraveling of this trade's happening and who's actually buying gold and who's selling treasuries and what's happening here and what's happening there. And almost unequivocally, most of those takes end up being wrong. They just end up being wrong.

And oftentimes the price movements associated with those takes are often wrong. Even the smartest and quote unquote best pundits are wrong. The markets make fools of us all.

That's absolutely a truth over time. The markets will make fools of us all. And so the fear stuff and the noise increasing, that's only a signal. And again, back to signal to stay committed to whatever your your thesis is associated with.

with investments over a period of time. If you're a Bitcoin guy, you should be finding ways to buy more Bitcoin in a way that has some sort of reasoning behind it and timing behind it. You shouldn't get off of that.

No matter what the noise is. And again, the noise is going to continue to be wild and loud. Here's a good example of that. Who's a guy that's really well known, that's been tweeting a lot in the past, let's call it two and a half, three weeks. Bill Ackman. Has anyone noticed what his fund has done year to date?

It's getting its face kicked in. It's down like 27%. So is that a guy that we should be hanging our hats on and making investment decisions based on what his thoughts are about what's going on? By the way, he was effectively the bottom signal for the COVID downturn. He got on there and said, hell is coming. The world's coming to an end. Nope, that wasn't actually it. That was the bottom signal. And we went up from there. So that's just one example.

of noise versus signal bill Ackman, you know, a wildly successful money manager that everybody quote unquote respects. But the truth of the matter is that he's often wrong when it comes to his takes that are public, right? Is he talking his book? Does he have different positions that when he's, when he's, when he's out there publicly talking that his positions are on the other side? I don't know, but probably a good idea with a guy that's down 27% so far year to date, um,

Probably not a guy you should be listening to right now. I do like the concept of only looking at markets in the lens of, is there a lot of noise at the moment? And if there's a lot of noise, and I guess that's related to hysteria of both directions, that's normally a good sign to kind of par off positions or take the other side. I think that's quite an interesting lens to think about markets, actually. Like, if you just feel as though

everyone's having wild expectations and there's just huge views being thrown out every 30 seconds and everyone's kind of losing their mind. That's just a good time to start taking the other side. But maybe we should talk about the model a little bit. So what trades did we do this for me?

So, yeah, if we want to pull them up or OSF, you can just talk about them. You know, these are extraordinary trades. Right. So there's a long down at 78 and change that that has again, the execution is terrible.

It's unassailable is what it is. And a reminder, because you guys are markets guys and to some degree chart guys, that

We only take long positions on red candles and we only exit positive positions on green candles. That's the antithesis of what most humans do, right? They see a big green candle like that and they think to themselves, I got to let this thing run. Nope, that's not how it works in the real world. You top tick that particular candle and you exit a small position for our arbitrage strategy and you bank some cash.

The next thing you do is when you see a big down candle, you buy that down candle and you stack some Bitcoin. By the way, that trade happened in the States at about 3 a.m. in the morning at 78K. So we're at, what, 82 and change right now? Yeah.

I simply and I've said this several times on this show because this is just our our Bitcoin ARB strategy in a minute. We'll pull up the Solana strategy. In fact, if you can pull up the Solana version real quick again, you know, we're down at 104 a few days ago on a purchase and that we're above 120 today.

on a sale just a couple of days ago. Again, those happening in moments that are outside of what are considered normal trading hours.

What we've built and what we have is one of one technology. You cannot find it at any exchange. You cannot find it on an OTC desk. You cannot find it anywhere. And so for us to be able to give this away for free to folks that want to dip their toe in the water, try it out and watch our automation, do what it is that you're seeing on these charts, the people that do that,

They're simply amazed. And they tell us that, again, here's a great example. The last three people that we hired into our company were customers first and said, whatever you guys are doing, I want to be a part of. Can I work? Can I work with you guys? Can I work for you guys?

Um, so what we're doing is one of one type tech and then the trades themselves, um, are shining examples, um, of what it is that we do and, and, and how we do it. So the trades themselves speak for themselves, right? Yeah. Great week for it. For sure. Continues to, yeah, continues to, uh,

outperform every time I'm thinking of doing something. So definitely if you guys want to check it out, you guys can go to realvision.com forward slash arch. You're able to access a free tier on it. So I'd highly recommend checking it out. If you're someone who struggles with the emotional side of trading, this definitely takes that element out of it. And with that, I think we can, we can call it a week. So yeah,

Hopefully... Are we going to be higher than 83k next week? Exactly what I was going to say. Hopefully we're here next week and we're at a different level that's not 82 or 83k on Bitcoin. But before we go, we have a question for you.

Who's going to budge first here, the US or China? Please let us know in the comments whether you're watching on X, YouTube or the Real Vision website as well. You can follow us on Twitter, osf-rec, recmando, ap-abacus. We'll be back next Friday at the usual time, 11.30am Eastern Time, 4.30pm British Summer Time. Hope everyone has a great weekend and we'll see you next week.

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