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cover of episode Have We Reached the Bottom in Equities? Macro Monday ft. Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold

Have We Reached the Bottom in Equities? Macro Monday ft. Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold

2025/3/10
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Real Vision: Finance & Investing

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Andreas Steno Larsen
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Mikkel Rosenvold
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Andreas Steno Larsen: 我认为当前市场的主要问题是特朗普政府政策带来的巨大不确定性,这比他第一任期时更为严重。这种不确定性主要体现在关税政策上,其范围和时间表都非常不明确,甚至特朗普本人可能也不清楚。这种不确定性导致市场遭受重创。此外,特朗普政府正在努力压低美元和美元债券收益率,这在一定程度上是积极的,因为我们看到债券收益率下降,美元贬值。然而,这种策略的目标是为美国经济在9到12个月后创造一个软着陆,而不是立即见效。这是一种策略上的转变。至于通货膨胀,关税对通货膨胀的影响并非简单直接,取决于关税的承担者(出口国、进口公司或最终消费者)。如果中国无法降低价格或改变贸易路线,关税可能会导致物价上涨,但这种上涨可能是暂时的。预测关税对通货膨胀的影响需要考虑多种动态因素,例如贸易转移、需求变化和现有库存。主流经济学家忽视了这些动态因素,因此通货膨胀可能出人意料地走低。美元走弱和债券收益率下降将有助于提振市场乐观情绪。对于公共部门而言,中期债券收益率(5-8年)比短期利率更重要,因为这与美国财政部债务的平均期限相符。 至于数字资产,美元走弱和债券收益率下降对比特币价格有利。比特币的价值存储属性使其与其他数字资产不同,因此其与公共部门的购买行为关联性较弱。未来几个月,许多资产可能达到极具吸引力的积累水平。 Mikkel Rosenvold: 我们正在经历动荡的时期,但我们应该寻找市场触底的迹象。特朗普对全球主义者的指责以及市场反应,暗示其政策可能存在局限性。由于美元走弱和债券收益率下降,美国经济可能在未来几个月内出现复苏迹象。美联储不太可能立即降息,特朗普政府的策略是通过财政政策降低长期债券收益率。长期债券收益率比短期利率更重要,因为它们对抵押贷款利率等有更大的影响。尽管欧洲市场存在长期机遇,但目前投资者应谨慎,因为德国等国家面临政治和经济挑战。欧洲国防工业面临能源和生产能力等系统性问题。欧洲可能需要重新从俄罗斯进口天然气,尽管存在道德和地缘政治方面的考虑。数字资产市场的复苏需要美元走弱和债券收益率下降。比特币价格与美元购买力之间存在关联。

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🔥 Check out Bitwise at https://bitwiseinvestments.com and let them know that Real Vision mentioned them. Welcome back to Macro Monday. Today's topic: Trump's Impact on Europe & the Dollar

Welcome back to Macro Monday. Today's topic: Have we reached the bottom?

Andreas Steno Larsen, founder and CEO of Steno Research, is back with his co-host Mikkel Rosenvold, partner and head of geopolitics for Steno Research, to break down the latest news and forces driving global markets on this live edition of Macro Mondays.

📣 This episode is brought to you by Bitwise Asset Management. Bitwise has been all-in on crypto since 2017 and has more than 20 crypto-based products to help investors get the access they need. Bitwise manages the world’s largest crypto index fund, one of the top Bitcoin ETFs, and one of the largest institutional Ethereum staking solutions. Bitwise has over $10 billion in assets under management and over 100 people in the US and Europe to help manage everything from ETFs to private alpha strategies to SMAs for large investors.

👉 Check out Bitwise at https://bitwiseinvestments.com and let them know that Real Vision mentioned them. Carefully consider the extreme risks associated with crypto before investing.

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