Macro Monday: Why Reciprocal Tariffs are GOOD News ft. Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold
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Hello everyone and welcome to another edition of Macro Mondays presented by Real Vision. My name is Mikael Rosenwald and I'm your host for today. As usual, alongside you Andreas, welcome to the show. Cheers. Thank you, Mikael.

We have a great show for you today. Remember that this is a sneak peek into the analysis that we do at Real Vision. To get full access, you need to sign up for the Pro Macro package, which involves both your weekly editorial, a piece on geopolitics and commodities. We have a weekly preview, which we release every Monday called We Get a Glance. And this is sort of a sneak peek into some of the analysis that we do. Also,

Also remember that we have two upcoming shows this week, actually. We're doing the Pro Macro Talk with Raoul on Wednesday. And on Thursday, I'm hosting the great Jacob Shapiro for a talk on geopolitics. So a whole lot to look forward to this week, Andreas. It's been another exciting week. And I want to start off in something completely unrelated to macro. Okay.

There is a Danish phrase, I know you and I love to use it, called a ramp. Yeah. You know what that means? Yeah. You and I both have some versions of it. It's a bit easier to see if we take off these headphones. It's, of course, the haircuts I'm talking about, because, Andreas, you were really, really, really excited to see the haircut of Howard Lutnick when he was in the Oval Office here. It's sort of, the ramp is obviously the slick,

What do you call it? Turned back hair. Howard Ludding has the one that begins, I don't know what it's called, in the middle, sort of right on the apex of the head and then goes back. It's a little bit easier to see in this picture, perhaps. It's one that I really, really like. He has great teeth, by the way, also. A lot of great rams in this drop administration. You've got to love this guy because he's not giving up. No. And, you know, I would probably have given up quite a while ago if I were him, but...

Kudos to him. Especially the clip where he's laughing in the background when Trump signs the executive order on plastic, whatever it was. And he's just laughing there. And his hair is just jumping around in his neck. You're going to love it. He hangs on by a thread there.

I've got a couple of others here. You get to decide the best one. This is Pete Navarro, the president's advisor, almost into what we might call a seagull. Very popular among footballers in the 90s. Also hanging on there. McDonald's logo. Yeah, exactly. Probably the winner right now is this guy, Scott Besnick. Yes. This is a great, great, great ramp, as we would call it. Yeah.

Also loving the salt and pepper coloring in there. But it's more like a Gryffindor cut than a Slytherin cut, right? If you know what I mean. Absolutely. That's an incredible picture, by the way. Incredible mock shot or official shot. Obviously, none of them living up to the great Anthony Scaramucci of the past Trump administration. So give us your inputs out there. Who did we miss of the greatest haircuts? I'm not sure.

In the Trump administration, we miss Barron. That's true. That's true. That's a great one. That's a great one. No one gets to see it because it's so big. You know, the haircut that he donned during the inauguration, you know, he would have, that haircut would have survived the hurricane. Yeah.

I've never seen so much gel in hair before. It was amusing. That's another decision. Are we more into the wet ramps or the dry ramps? That's Scaramucci very much in the dry camp of that one. Anyway, Andres, let's get on with the macro before we get to talk about people's hairs here. But it's great to see. You wrote a piece yesterday. Reciprocal tariffs are actually good. What on earth do you mean by that?

Okay, I think we kind of mentioned it a week ago that there's a potential for these reciprocal tariffs to orchestrate some sort of race to the bottom on tariffs globally. And over this weekend, Trump explicitly stated that if counterparts bring down their tariffs and their VAT rates, then the US will do nothing or maybe even lower tariffs

their tariffs and sales tax rates right so i guess this is an offer basically to the rest of the world why don't you cut taxes why don't you cut tariffs and we'll do nothing and as i said last week as well trump's analysis is right in the sense that the average tariff applied on u.s goods

leaving the U.S. and crossing a border outside of the U.S. is much higher than the equivalent tariff the other way around. So he's basically trying to create some sort of level playing field on global trade. And I think he'll get one, at least to some extent, right? If you're Modi, and you're running the business of India, so to speak, right?

And you're currently stuck with tariffs that are, say, five to six times as high as the equivalent tariffs in the US. And you get this message, right? We'll put a tariff on you unless you cut your tariff to the same level that we have against you.

What would be your response? Would you increase your tariffs? I don't think so, really, right? So I actually think that there's an end game here that is pretty positive. Of course, there will be some noise in between and loads of headlines and some hostile negotiations, potentially, but...

The end game is good. Yeah, especially for the countries that are more reliant on exporting to the US than importing from the US. Most countries are obviously relying on both because there's some tech you can only get in the US. But if it's a backbone to your economy that you're exporting either goods or services to the US, then this sounds like a no-brainer. Hi, Raoul here.

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I was a bit surprised by this VAT thing because we're very, very big on VAT in Europe. And apparently Trump plans to include VAT in the calculation of what he considers to be tariffs. Yeah. That's going to be tricky for the EU to pull down because taxation and VAT

It's not part of the EU mandate. No, it's a national mandate. It's a national mandate. Just like in the States, you have federal sales tax and you have statewide, countywide sales tax, exactly. So it's going to be very, very hard to bring them down across the board. But it's going to be part of the negotiations. Maybe, Mikkel, we can show the overview of the levels that we are faced with across the globe in terms of tariffs. I did this overview yesterday, right? And if you look at China to begin with, at the top of the table here, yeah,

China is actually in a pretty benign, almost a sweet spot here due to what has already happened, right? Because if you look at China, they received this 10% addition to tariffs. That was a few weeks ago from Trump. It is already in place. And if you look at their sales tax, value-added tax, call it whatever you want,

It's relatively low compared to Europe, for example. And if you look at the average applied tariffs rate to the left in the table, we're also talking about an average tariff rate that is not too far off what you see in the US. So at least if you take this calculation at face value, we're talking maybe maximum a handful of percentage points between the US and China, and they already imposed 10%. So, I mean, I don't think tariffs will be implemented on China from here.

At least if you take what Trump said at face value, they will not impose further additions to the tariffs on China. So China is looking good, at least from this perspective, right? Then you have India just below that. Terrible, right? More or less the highest tariffs on earth. Relatively high value-added taxation as well. So if you calculate the spread between India and the US, they'll probably face tariffs of...

yeah 10 15 at least as a retaliatory measure uh then you got the us um just below that just for comparison right and you know i tried to calculate the average sales tax in the us it's a bit tricky but we're talking six seven percent something like that and you need to compare that to uh the uk and the european union just below with value-added taxation at 20 to 25 ish

That's a huge gap. That would be equal to a tariff of, say, 15%-ish on Europe overall. That's pretty big. But, you know, maybe there's a scope for the European Union to make some sort of a deal with the U.S. here, especially given everything that's ongoing in Ukraine. Absolutely. And, you know, we've already seen...

rumors around a military package being molded by the European leadership. So basically, we call it an aid package to the defense sector across the Union. Obviously, that is something that is probably designed to tee up the negotiations around who's going to put boots on the ground in Ukraine and all of that. So I don't know whether you have a take on that, Mikkel. Can Europe orchestrate a deal on trade

buy some sort of defense deal in Ukraine, if you know what I mean. That's my thought here. I think we have three things in play that can be packaged together in some sort of US-EU deal or Europe deal, which you'd rather say. So you have tariffs.

You have Ukraine. Trump is very clearly pushing his Ukraine plan. He's pushing toward an Easter truce. That's by the end of April. I think it's very, very realistic that he gets that done. Obviously, he can always get derailed, but I think it's looking very realistic. They're into very serious talks with the Russians. We'll delve into more of this in our show on Thursday, but...

But it looks very, very serious. The Europeans are not invited to the table, but still have a very important role to play in this. I'll just try and find this image from the Daily Mirror. It's a good overview. We're not 100% sure of all the details here. But the idea is essentially to freeze the current front lines, some minor adjustments back and forth, and then have EU and UK soldiers intervene.

guarding that frontline in exchange for Ukraine not joining NATO. So this means that Ukraine will not be able to join NATO. They will have the second best thing, which is European soldiers manning the border crossings, essentially, which makes it very, very hard for Russia to do anymore. It gives Ukraine a lot of security. But obviously, this is a huge task for the European Union. We're talking 50, maybe 100,000 men,

uniform down here and it's going to take a lot of military purchases which goes into the Rheinmetall trade you've been pushing for Real Vision users as well. The third thing here, and that's also extremely relevant to the VAT, is the tech sector. JD Vance spent quite a bit of his

of his Munich speech on the tech sector and how the EU is issuing censorship, is limiting the tech sector, is limiting AI. I think it's very, very possible that that

some sort of VAT decreases or special issues, special statuses for the major tech companies, the big social media in Europe could be in place in these, could be a part of these negotiations. It could be exemptions from some of the EU data regulations, et cetera, but it would be a huge setback for the EU, but that might be what it takes to avoid huge US tariffs, essentially. So

Very, very interesting to see. And I just wanted to focus on a couple of other charts we've been doing on the effects of tariffs that's already being seen in markets. People are front-running it. One example is the divergence between bond yields and oil, where you essentially label this a tariffs premium. Yeah, okay. So let me put it like this, right? If I'm right, that we're basically...

in the very early innings of some sort of global race to the bottom on tariffs, right? And these reciprocal tariffs ending up being a nothing burger in terms of the economic effects and all that. Then the market is basically caught wrong-footed ultimately because there's clearly a terrorist premium in bond yields. So the spread between everything traded on exchange in relation to energy inflation swaps and such stuff,

is that they're trading very far off what we see in bond yields right now. And, you know, if we take the typical correlation between oil and 10-year bond yields at face value, we should probably trade closer to 4% in the 10-year bond yield in the US while we're trading 50 basis points above that-ish. So I think there's a scope for bond yields to come lower into this April truth in the mid, sorry, in Ukraine. And with...

it kind of stands still on tariffs, nothing implemented as long as we negotiate and all of that, right? And the dollar is also starting to sell off against some of the peers, right? Especially versus the Japanese yen, another trade that we've flagged and made money on. So I think overall,

this is starting to resemble or look, it's starting to look reminiscent of what happened in 2017, basically. Remember when Trump took office back then, you know, he's an eager beaver by nature, right? He wants everything done during the first quarter of his presidency. And then he wants to play golf for the rest of his presidency. That's how we, you know, I'm exaggerating things, but, but, you know, that's how a typical CEO works, right? Loads of executive orders, right?

strategic direction, visions, and then it's up to his staff to solve it. To implement stuff, yeah. And we'll get all of his strategic visions laid out now. And then as soon as we have all of those fears baked into the market, we'll slowly but surely see a return to fair value, basically. And I think that was what happened in 2017 as well. The dollar started weakening. Bond yields started coming lower alongside Trump's

sort of leaning back a little bit after all of his early messages. And that's ultimately very good news for risk taking as well, in my opinion, if the dollar weakens and if the terrorist premium is priced out. So one major factor in that, Andreas, is the fiscal deficit of the US. You just mentioned that Trump is looking to get everything done quickly. We know that Doge has a two year mandate essentially, can be changed, obviously.

It seems like we're already seeing some effects from it. We are. And I know this is a slight chart crime. Let me just disclaim that upfront because a couple of people already got annoyed with this chart after I showed it in some of the research pieces that we've written. But the point here is that since the inauguration, we've actually seen a change of trend in the fiscal deficit.

It is partially driven by seasonality and tax receipts. But if you detrend this, and this is a statistical exercise, we're talking about a larger positive trend compared to 12 months ago. So, you know,

I'm pretty sure that they're onto something with this Doge project. My best guess is that they've managed to remove 50 billion-ish from the budget deficit already in three weeks. I mean, that's a lot. That's nothing to sneeze at.

So, I mean, take a live look at the listed prices of real estate in Washington, D.C. It's a landslide. And, you know, we're laughing, but, you know, they're cutting expenses at least. And it's very, very visible.

So no matter whether you like this Doge project or not, I have sympathy for it, but it's changing the direction of the deficit a little bit here. And, you know, after months in a row with negative news on this deficit, this is exactly what the bond market needs right now to calm down. And Scott Besant, the guy we basically gave the trophy of the best haircut in the administration right now, he's...

He's also calming markets down with his rhetoric, right? No increase to the long-end bond issuance. That was his first message to markets. His second message to markets was that we're looking to bring long-term bond yields down. Very calm guy. And I think he's maneuvering things well so far. So much better results here than in his hedge fund. Yeah.

At least to turn this curve around, it's obviously very, very significant. To make major headway in this, you probably need to cut into mandatory spending, as we've talked about. And that's going to be the big challenge, I think, here, but also where the big potential lies. So very, very interesting to see some actual results here.

this is going to be a chart that Donald Trump loves. I mean, it's so clearly cuts off on his inauguration, even though it's maybe not completely fair, as you mentioned. But anyway, it's going to be a great looking chart for him. Yeah, I was kind of hoping for him to retweet it, but he never did.

Okay, Andreas, we've got a bunch of important numbers coming up next week. We'll get to that in a minute. I just wanted to touch upon a number of interesting charts you put up. We'll discuss some of them more in detail on Wednesday as well. You had one on soft commodities, but don't talk too much about that.

You had this one on, I think it's sugar, right? Yes. And it's actually breaking higher now, the sugar price. You could have shown a similar chart on corn, for example, or wheat and to some extent soybeans. So I think this is a clear sign that the dollar pressure is weakening now or is softening because soft commodities obviously...

trade in dollars. So if you get a softer dollar, it leads to a larger demand for these soft commodities as they're measured in dollars, right? From the rest of the world, basically. And I think it is an overlooked detail in the negotiations between the US and the rest of the world that Donald Trump wants to export some farm products. The US is actually not particularly good at exporting farm products for a lot of reasons, especially

as import tariffs are incredibly high on especially farm products, even in your area where I showed you earlier that import tariffs are not particularly high. But Europe is trying to safeguard its own farming sector. India is trying to safeguard its own production of food. We're starting to see the same in some other Asian countries.

So this is a battlefield in many ways. And if they start exporting more and the dollar softens alongside it, it's a big bull flag for

the local traded commodity prices of sugar, soybeans, et cetera, in the US. So this is one of the things that we see as a great theme of 2025 now, that we'll get some sort of return to normal in food prices, especially the traded ones, because, for example, wheat is trading at very low levels compared to what we saw 21, 22, 23. The same goes to a large extent for corn, right? So

I'm not necessarily scared of the inflation impact on households and all of that, but I think it's a very good trade here. Okay, so Andreas, one very big topping on X right now is gold. Everyone and their mother seems to be buying other physical gold or talking about Krugerrands or what have we. I think this chart is very, very interesting. The gold inventory data. You tweeted that once this tops, you should get the hell out of it.

uh sure i mean this is the like physical uh storage data from the comics exchange in the us

And it's just out of the ordinary to see so much physical gold on vault there. So, I mean, to me, it's a symptom of like private banking advisors telling their high net worth individual clients to bring the gold to the US in anticipation of tariffs, right? Typically, this gold would be stored in Switzerland or London or whatever, right? So across the pond.

And, you know, the trend is extreme right now. Gold had a bad Friday, but we're starting to rebound today again. And I think the market is sort of honed in on the 3K strike, right? $3,000 for gold, I think we'll get there within a week or two. And then I'll probably consider whether to exit this.

There's a final window here before the tariff negotiations conclude, right? After that, you have some clarity. And I think the storytelling is no longer as solid around this gold trade. And we know that gold is a very sentiment-driven trade, right? It's hard to explain it with fundamentals. So, you know, currently we're seeing a lot of positive storytelling around gold, right?

to some extent silver as well, but also other metals. When I went to the US a few weeks back, every single commercial in the taxi was about gold and silver. We don't have such commercials here, I can guarantee you that. So there is a very, very strong storytelling around gold right now due to tariffs. So utilize this last window of opportunity, and then I think we'll have a sort of sideways period for metals after that.

Before we get to some of the numbers this week and how we preview those, remember out there to post your questions, whether you're watching on Real Vision X or YouTube or wherever, please post your questions. If we don't get around them today, we will have time for a few. But if we don't, we can also pick them up in the pro macro talk. Then you have to sign up to get the answer. But that's how it is. But one of the things that I'm stuck in negotiations with myself about basically is whether to buy real

the gold miners. Because for once there is actually a growing margin for these gold miners. Otherwise, on a trend basis, it's not been a strong trade despite gold going up. Because the margin that they get from harvesting the gold has been under pressure over time. But

For now, we're actually seeing a decent widening of the margin. So I think there's a decent catch-up trade left in miners as well. We've traded a few ourselves and we'll obviously discuss some of those single names in the Pro Insider Talks on Wednesday. I think that's a good place to look right now for some late value in this gold bet.

Very, very interesting address. Let's talk about this week that we've just entered. We're getting a bunch of numbers from the UK. So I just wanted to touch upon, it's been a while since we touched upon our regime model for the UK. How are things looking over there? It's actually the only major economy on earth not having momentum right now, in my opinion. You know, Keir Starmer and his administration is off to a terrible start.

And if you look at approval ratings and stuff like that, they're basically on the floor, if not through the floor. It looks as bad as it did for the conservatives before they basically called for an election. So I think we're into some sort of permanent political crisis in the UK here. And maybe if we get snap elections, I'm not sure whether it's in play, but they'll probably...

try to avoid them. But then all of a sudden we have this new party reform in the mix. And currently they're polling as the biggest party. I'm not sure whether they're anywhere near getting a majority. There's a big difference between being the biggest party and getting a majority in the UK, even in this first-past-the-post system. But it's probably the economy that deals with the most political uncertainty right now. And

On top of that, when we talk about tariffs and trade frictions, the UK is an obvious vulnerable target as the UK is very dependent on imports, on everything from energy to food. I mean, the UK wouldn't survive a week without imports. It's an absolute catastrophe. They have a five-day storage of nat gas. You know, in...

I mean, we're very far from it right now, and especially with the peace talks, right? But in the Third World War, I certainly wouldn't put my money on the UK, given how they've constructed their imports and exports right now. So I think that's why you see a weak performance of the economy right now, that it's very vulnerable to these tariff set lines and all that. And the uncertainty is not healthy for the economy, especially when you look at the political picture.

So as you can see in this chart, growth is low from an outcasting perspective. If inflation is not coming up, so we have inflation from the UK this week as well, I think it will look very soft. By the way, let me disclaim that I was wrong on the US inflation looking soft last week. But anyway, bond yields went down.

Yeah, I think that kind of sums it up on the UK right now. It's one of the few places where I don't see the momentum. Look at the traded momentum in Europe right now. Oh, sorry. I should say the European Union. I keep forgetting that they're a part of Europe now that they've left the union, but pardon to my friends in the UK.

But the momentum in European stocks overall, if you set UK aside, is incredibly strong right now. But the case is not as solid in the UK by any means.

Okay, Andreas, let's just grab a few listener questions here. One from Danny. Is there a possibility that gold is revalued or is that a conspiratorial idea that's being circulated? Is it not fair that gold will continue to rise over the rest of the cycle as liquidity expands? I think this question relates to the official holdings of gold in the US, right? We obviously have the storage in Fort Knox and I think Elon called for some sort of

Official audits of what's even in that storage. Can we revalue it? And, you know, behind the scenes, and we've seen a couple of stories on it, Trump is even, you know, discussing whether to back the dollar with some sort of gold standard again. In my opinion, it would be a wrong choice, but at least it's something that's being mulled within the administration. So yes, I think this is an option. Yeah.

And, you know, if we get some sort of return to a gold standard, whatever is in store for us here, it's obviously massive news. I would argue that if we get to 3K in gold and these stories around the gold-backed dollar start emerging right, left, and center from the administration, I think they're probably best played via some sort of option because, you know,

Will they actually implement that? The Fed will likely have its say and all that. So I consider it an outside chance still rather than the base case. Andreas, completely different topic here. Any long-term views on energy and more specifically on the renewable energy market, offshore wind, etc.?

Well, thanks for that question. At least we see Copenhagen where we are sending live from as the capital of offshore wind in the world. Whether that's fair, it's another discussion. But at least we have a couple of the big players in that market globally. And they're not doing too well. No, they're not doing well at all. I mean, Trump is crystal clear in his message on this. We're not going to buy any wind turbines this year.

They don't work. No. Well, that's basically what he says. That's what he says. And during this inflation scare, this whole energy scare, we've basically seen a lot of the offshore projects struggling from an economic perspective, even in the UK, Germany, Denmark. And I'm not overly optimistic right now, especially since the political backing is not there.

And it's not even really there in Europe right now. I mean, everything is on the margin moving towards nuclear. And they'll struggle to set up a lot of offshore wind farms without the public backing, basically. And...

The last few attempts of doing so, both in the UK and in Denmark, ended without any bids at all. Interest rates are just too high for that. Of course, you could argue that. Can we find anything more negative to say about this sector right now? Is there some sort of value play here? Because if you look at the big players in this market, we're basically talking about a drawdown of 60-70% since peak in 2021-2022.

So I get why there's some chatter around this being a value play, but we need bond yields down a lot for it to come into fruition. A lot. Or some sort of separation of interest rates to create special... Green interest rates. With essentially government subsidies. Yeah, but the European Central Bank could do something like that. I wouldn't rule that out. No, but it's not high on the priority list for the EU right now. No, but in the US, I mean, offshore wind...

And it's like trying to sell a cannon, whatever. Yeah, right. It just seems like it's two decades ago. It's over. It's all about solar and nuclear now, it seems. Okay, and just one last question here from, yeah, I don't know his name actually, AWI. How many rate cuts in the US are we expecting this year? And will that be coupled with global liquidity increase to be bullish overall heading into Q2 to Q4 2025?

So on liquidity, let me start with that because I know we have a chart in that. We obviously cover this topic on a running basis in our research papers. And I think this chart on the private credit creation is the one that is worth watching right now on liquidity. Because if you look at private credit creation,

we're talking about liquidity additions from private banks here i think this is essentially the source of liquidity that you need to rely on this year because powell basically said it last week we're not going to do qe as long as bond yields are way above zero i mean qe is something you um

Yeah, it's a weapon of choice when you're at zero, not before that. And then they could obviously come up with some sort of creative solution to add some liquidity to markets. But this chart on the private market

liquidity creation from banks, right, is the one that you need to watch. So yes, we'll see liquidity additions, but from private banks, not from the public sector. With the deficit shrinking due to Doge and the Fed not really willing to play ball, this is what you need to rely on. So I mean, yes, liquidity is doing fine and it will increase, but it will not increase in a gung-ho style like in 2020, 2021. So I think the further you get out the risk curve in altcoins,

the less likely you are to see some liquidity tailwinds because this is a slightly different form of liquidity from central banking liquidity additions. But still, it's better than nothing and the trajectory is okay. It's just driven by private credit creations. The coming season. Is that already over? No, no, no, no.

So they need some clarity on tariffs before they move, and they'll probably get that by April, May. So I think we'll get one cut this first half of the year, and then maybe one or two in the second half of the year. So I still think it's fair to price it more than what's in the curve right now. Very interesting. That's all we had for you this week in Macro Mondays. I completely forgot our usual jingle and rest, but it's always important to remember that our ideas and trade recommendations here, they may be

Sometimes maybe good, sometimes maybe shit. Always important to get generic tips. But Mikkel, they've been sometimes maybe really good over the past two weeks. So finally...

If we forget about playing this disclaimer on a weekly basis, it's because we're on a roll. It's because we're doing so well. Yeah. So that is a disclaimer on the disclaimer, basically. Very valid point, Andreas. So obviously, as I mentioned, tune into our Pro Insider Talk with Raoul on Wednesday. Tune into my show with Jacob Shapiro for everything geopolitical on Thursday. We're going to be talking a lot about war and peace there. Yeah.

Any final remarks, Andreas? No. Good luck out there. I mean, I think these reciprocal tariffs will ultimately end up in a race to the bottom on tariffs. So no reason to be scared. Absolutely. Have a good one out there. See you next week. If you liked this episode, I'd love for you to head over to realvision.com forward slash join for a free membership. Start your journey today to unfuck your future. Just one click away.