REKT Vision: Can Crypto Remain Stable Amidst The Stocks Rout? ft. OSF and Mando
01:05:01 Share

Join over 7,000 attendees on June 18th to 19th at Super AI Singapore, Asia's largest AI event. East will meet West as industry leaders converge for two unparalleled days exploring the exponential AI age.

Join us to unveil the future of LLMs, the intersection of AI and crypto, robotics, drones, space tech, the societal and economic impact of generative AI, and much more. Get tickets at superai.com with promo code REALVISION for an exclusive 20% off, only while tickets last.

Hi everyone, I'm Raoul Pal, the CEO and co-founder of Real Vision. Here at Real Vision, we're committed to give you the best knowledge, tools, and network to help you succeed in your financial future. If you're enjoying this podcast, please take a moment to give it a five-star rating. It truly helps us continue to bring top-tier content. Thank you so much. Well, we are back. Real Vision, Rex Vision, it feels like

I've aged a few years over the last few days. But then I look at the price and we are back again at 83k. You could have fallen asleep for the last few weeks and still been at this level, avoided all the drama up and down, avoided the FOMO, avoided the fear. We are just back at 83k. How's your week been, OSF?

Yeah, it's another one of those weeks where I feel like we've had extreme volatility. And I look at the weekly price action on Bitcoin since we did this last Friday and it's down 4%. It's just like it's exactly the same level. Apparently it's down 4%. I think we had a little bit of a rally last Friday which carried on into the weekend, didn't it? How's my week? I don't know. I think I don't even really know what to say. I think...

I think Trump's cavalierness continues to surprise me. I still feel like this is not that big a deal and that I'm bullish and this is a good spot to buy. And just doing the same thing that I've been doing for what feels like an eternity now, every time we get to lower levels on my buy list, I buy a bit more. And I'm thinking, well, I should have started this buy program probably a couple of months later than I did. But I guess that's why you DCA and don't go all in in one go. But yeah,

Yeah. They always say that I always like to use this term, like when it feels the most horrific, that's when you're supposed to be buying. And let me tell you, it feels pretty horrific now. And it doesn't feel great to be buying. So I just hope that at some point in time that some of these buyers will come good. And we've had, it's weird. We've had glimpses of, I had a moment like probably a week ago where a lot of my DCAs were like well in the money by a good amount, by 30, 40, 50%.

And now everything's like, well, how the money again? So it's just, and this is, by the way, this is all altcoins. It's not really even Bitcoin. Obviously Bitcoin has been in the narrow range here, but. Yeah, it does feel, it does feel like that. Like this week you'd be forgiven for freaking out a little bit. We've had a monstrous sell-off in the US stock market. Fear and greed index for US stocks hit

close to an all-time low. I think it hit like four today. And obviously this is on the back of tariffs and just this is on the back of before that worries about China and them catching up on some of the AI boom. And it just wasn't a great period here for US stocks.

That being said, crypto has just kind of outperformed the whole time. At least Bitcoin has. Bitcoin dominance has gone up to 83%. Obviously, gold hit an all-time high or multiple all-time highs as well on the way up. And Bitcoin's just kind of been in that world where it's not quite following gold and it's now not quite following stocks. So...

It's just stayed where it is. Both of them are kind of tugging on the correlation and it's just been basically in a straight line. The tariff news, though, I agree with you. That did shock me. I personally was not a fan of how those tariffs were enacted. I thought it was slightly... It's just kind of not what I thought was the initial sell. We're going to go after reciprocal tariffs that seems to have been based around

the trade deficits rather than tariffs themselves. And this now presents a tough scenario, I think, even in the negotiating table. What did you make of all the tariff headlines? Are you just looking through it and being like, global liquidity is about to go high? Or do you think this is the ability to take stocks down 30% to 40% even from here? I don't think tariffs are that big a deal. I think there's a lot of

talking a big game here. There's a lot of posturing, I think. I think the market immediately assumes the worst case scenario. They see numbers like that and think, oh, this is really bad. All these are going to be implemented tomorrow and it's going to be horrific for the markets. It's kind of like the inverse of the whole Bitcoin reserve stuff when everyone's like, oh, it's going to get signed and they're going to start buying Bitcoin tomorrow. This is like the inverse of that. It's like, oh, these tariffs are horrific. It's going to

happen tomorrow and we're all going to crash and we're going to fall into a recession right now. I think it's the opposite. I think these things, we're now going to enter a period of negotiations with every single country on this list, a lot of back and forth. The reality is these aren't going to get implemented to 100% of the value. It's not even really possible. I think the China...

um, retaliation today, maybe throws a little bit of a spanner in the works, but it also maybe like makes them realize that can't be this aggressive on, on stuff. And they have to find some sorts of middle ground again. Like if you look at what happened with tariffs in 2018, 2019, you had a lot of back and forth and eventually you got to a better spot by the end of it, because I think it's just in every party's interest to come to resolution than to not come to resolution. And eventually you get there. So, um,

I think, will we get a full resolution of everything? No. But I think from this point onwards, you will see progress. I think you can only really see progress from this point onwards. And I think it will take time for it to happen. But I'm not seeing it as like, oh my God, this is so bad because this is going to be terrific for global trade and we're all going to plunge into recession because I just don't think...

I don't think Trump is that stupid or the people around him are that stupid to do that. I know a lot of people would disagree with me there. Yeah. I think it's going to escalate from here. Honestly, like I, I don't share the view that some of these other countries necessarily feel like they have to, um, have to do a deal with the U S I think some of them will also look to be more insular and that may even affect growth. And, but, but,

That also could be bullish for things like Bitcoin. That's kind of my view. I think China and the US could continue to escalate even this. I think even with the EU, it could escalate as well. Hi, Raoul here.

Listen, I think we've got until 2030 before the economic singularity arrives. Now, it might not be the exact date, but it's around then. So we have about six years to figure out how to unfuck our future. I've put together a report to help you called Prepare for 2030. It's going to help you take the first steps in that journey to make sure you're secure past 2030. So just click on the link below and start your journey now.

I don't think it will escalate. It was the same thing seven or eight years ago, and it just de-escalated. It would escalate, and then it would immediately de-escalate. And then it would escalate, and then it would de-escalate. And I think we're at the point where we've had this escalation. And I think from here, the next move is it de-escalates. I don't think it gets worse from here.

Yeah, like I said, I continue to think that it will probably... My view is that it'll escalate. I think this is the first move, and then you're going to see the retaliation from the countries, and then you'll maybe see another round of retaliation. And yeah, everyone will...

dig in and maybe it's months down the line that you start to see that resolution but i do think that at least even in the short term this can get even worse than it has in terms of like headline figures for tariffs and maybe then maybe then that that provides the solution in in a few months but i also just think the motives here are slightly different like the world is different than four years ago like the the global um you know the globalists their power has kind of

fallen away largely in a lot of different countries. A lot of countries have looked a lot more insular. So I think that this could be a bit of an upending of global trade and it can lead to a sustained worry here, at least for the stock market. That being said, I think this will now lead to massive money printing, particularly in places like China. The only way China can really

deal with this, in my opinion, is to announce massive domestic stimulus. And I think that could happen in a range of different countries as well. Like we're not going to do a deal with the US, but we're going to do a massive stimulus plan for like China first. You know what I mean? And I think that leads to massive money printing globally. That's kind of how I think it plays out, which is still a more bullish scenario than Bitcoin, but maybe not that bullish for global stocks. Like particularly for some of the ones that make up

the Fortune 500, of which rely on global supply chains and decades of built-up multinational organizations. I think those could actually still be under some worry for a little bit here. The funny thing to what you just said with regard to money printing, which I would have agreed with, and that was kind of like one of my main things, I still do agree with, but I think how...

is giving a speech right now and his comments as of a few minutes ago were um jerome fed chair jerome powell says he expects president trump's tariffs to raise inflation and lower growth indicated that the central bank won't move an interest rate until they have greater clarity so i think that's true though they're like sorry just very clear i don't think that powell can reduce rates you're going to see massive potential inflation in the u.s but the rest of the world

The rest of the poll can print a lot. And that's where I think the majority of this stimulus is going to come from. I don't think Powell can cut rates here. I really don't. He's up against the wall here. You're going to see...

You can't see this much inflation potentially and that not then go to cut rates. They may do money printing by another way where they say, hey, we're going to recapitalize the banks. But the idea that they'll buy assets or reduce interest rates

They can't cut interest rates. They can't cut interest rates in this world, but they may do money printing by another way just to sure up the financial system. Those comments from Powell follow a Trump tweet a few minutes ago as well, saying this would be a perfect time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates. He's always late. He's always late to cut interest rates. So it's just back to that. I think, again, this is once again...

a repeat of 2018 when Trump was doing the same thing. He was like, cut rates, cut rates, cut rates. And eventually they did, but that was maybe a slightly different story because they decided, you know, they just, the Fed completely pivoted on their view on inflation. And they had the right view then. Can I, like, without getting overly political, like, do you think this is an economically sound thing to have done? I'm a little bit

I'm a little bit because because, for example, we would go down how this list was done. These this tariff list, it wasn't done on tariffs to that country. Right. Like it's not like EU does have a common import tariff of ranging on goods up. So I think high teens, Japan has high has high tariffs. India, for example, has high tariffs.

Yeah, those countries did get some tariffs, but it was the ones, because it was based on trade deficit. You had countries like Vietnam, which has like a 3% to 5% tariff getting tax, getting a 45% tariff put on them. Yeah.

I don't know how Vietnam can fix that. They can't come to the negotiating table with Trump and be like, hey, we're going to drop our tariffs because that's not what the calculation was. It was just whoever's got a trade deficit. That's why I find also the actual room for negotiation here for a lot of the countries that are most effective, they can't even do anything. And that's made most ridiculousness.

with the tariffs on these places with no people. It's not like that country has 100% tariff against the US. It's just got a negative trade balance. So I don't know. And then to then come out and say, Powell's got to drop interest rates. This is going to raise the cost of living, I think, in the US extraordinarily.

Have you ever wanted to trade Bitcoin but haven't dared try? With Plus 500 Futures, you can trade crypto without the hassle of opening a wallet. With just a few clicks, you can register and start practicing with their free and unlimited demo. See a trading opportunity? You'll be able to trade it in just two clicks. Feel ready?

Thank you.

That's if they go through, right?

if they actually implement it. Yeah, so I'm of the view that this does continue to escalate. So I guess your view is that this deal... I think it's a bluff. I just think it's a bluff. And I'm not, by the way, I'm not a political expert. I'm not an expert on trade. I'm not an expert on tariffs. I'm not an expert on human psychology. But if I'm just looking at this as a couch speculator, I just think it's all one big bluff. And I think it's all one big opportunity to kitchen sink as much as possible into

knowing that when you just forget about this whole tariff mess, things are generally in a good spot. And it just takes him one retraction, which can be covered up and dressed up in a nice way, which doesn't look like he's standing down to send everything back up again very quickly. And you know how quickly people will be to throw him into risk if they think this blows over. So I just think it's like, okay, what can we get away with? Let's start here and we end up here.

even if we were there to begin with, because if we started there, we wouldn't even get any, make any progress. And that's what I think is happening. So again, like I just say that from just guess, I'm just guessing, like, I don't know. I think the two variables there is if it's a bluff, when is it, when does he call it? No. Does he call it in a week or does he call it in six months, 12 months? Secondly,

This is slightly different than the first time he did tariffs, which was largely against China. That was the only real battle here. He's actually started a tariff battle with every single country in the world at the same time. So even if you think Trump is some amazing negotiator, which obviously he has been very, very good and his brinkmanship is kind of known, this is a difficult negotiating table. You know, like he's not even just gone after Trump

China, for example, he's got like Australia and the UK both have trade surpluses against the US and he's put a 10% tariff on them. But now what I didn't really agree with what you're saying there, though, is a lot of this, at least for crypto right now, has been priced in. And I do not see a world now where we do not see

stimulus from either it gets walked back into bluff or you see massive money printing to help shore up domestic industries you know you kind of saw a little bit of this already like with and this was with military with the EU like we're gonna have to spend all this money on on you know creating arms now

Very similarly, I think you'll see domestic first policies coming out where we aim to boost domestic industries coming out of China, Japan and Europe. And to be honest, the only way to pay for that is with money printing. These countries already have too much debt and I don't see a world where China can strap on

you know, another trillion dollars of debt without massive money printing at the same time. So I think we're going to see, that is kind of where I see over the next week. We see China comes out with, hey, yeah, if you do more tariff, you'll do more tariff, but we're also going to do a big stimulus and maybe the same. Japan, I don't know if the UK will do it, but like I can see a lot of countries going down that route that can. And whether that is a,

you know, that leads to inflation or not, or whether that scene is like a Hail Mary, I think that's good for Bitcoin and can drag up crypto. So I've been buying a lot of Bitcoin today, as I told you, because I think that's how this plays out. Yeah, it's hard to, I mean, I think you're probably not the only person with that view on Bitcoin, which is why we're seeing its outperformance. Kind of reminds me of when the...

What was that bank that went... Yeah, Silver Republic. No, it was Silver... Silver... Yeah, Silvergate? Silvergate? Is it Silvergate? I don't remember. The crypto banks that went and then... The crypto banks, yeah. And then Bitcoin sold off for like a moment and then it was just like turbo bid for forever after that. And it feels similar because it's... And again, like it's just another one of those things where like it's a quality that's very specific to Bitcoin and not really anything else in crypto.

where both outcomes are somewhat positive for Bitcoin. Yeah. But the only difference is this time, I don't think the stimulus is going to come from the US. Yeah. It's going to come from other countries printing money, I think. You play out the second order impacts of that

I think it's good for Bitcoin. For the dollar, it really depends. Obviously, other countries printing would lead to inflation, but at the same time, maybe this is a slight removal of dollar power in trade. So it's difficult to work out. But most scenarios there, I think it's good for Bitcoin.

I think that's going to happen. I don't know if that drags up the rest of crypto with it. At the moment, Bitcoin dominance has again pushed hard for like, say, 3%. But it is difficult to work out. That was my next question. It was like, what do you... Because for me, I haven't really been adding much Bitcoin just because it hasn't gone much lower. And I think I last bought some...

when it was like 78k or whatever. And we just haven't been anywhere near that since then. But a lot of altcoins keep bleeding. Bitcoin dominance keep going higher. Altcoins keep bleeding. I've been focused on buying the AI stuff. To me, and this is like highly risky because some of this stuff may never come back and who really knows. But just looking at some of the stuff, it's like, okay, all these coins are down 99%. And I know there's other people alongside me buying it, some institutions and stuff. So in a world where you have

you can have two types of Bitcoin rallies, like a bearish Bitcoin rally, which is maybe what we're, bearish Bitcoin strength, which is maybe what we're seeing now, or like bullish Bitcoin strength, which is when the market is risk on and Bitcoin gets higher. And I think in the second scenario, when you start to have like bullish Bitcoin strength, which is a general rally in risk assets, I find it really hard to see some of this other stuff doesn't come back. And just these levels of just your upside downside,

is it pretty juicy and yes you may just be sitting in some of the stuff where it keeps losing five percent every week on average or something like that or it keeps drifting low it doesn't move for a while but when this stuff moves it just snaps up so aggressively that you don't have the chart you know you can't really say i'm gonna wait to wait for things to best to be better to get in because it moves so fast and so quick you'll end up buying the stuff two or three times higher than where it is now if you want to get in there and so for me it's like and this is obviously like a

a higher end of the risk spectrum but it's just i don't know do you not feel like throwing some darts at that shit that's down 90 plus percent on the potential that maybe some of this stuff de-escalates um maybe see some money printing across the world even if it's not in the u.s and maybe at some point in the next six months you do have a risk asset rebound and

where I think some of this stuff is just going to gap up, can just gap up very aggressively from the levels where it is now. Also, volumes are very thin. Stuff drifts a lot lower on not much trading volume. It just seems like, to me, a good buying opportunity. But maybe it's more of a gamble than a trade or an investment. But for me, I kind of like the rewards behind this stuff. It feels like, to me, back in 2023 when stuff was down here. I'm just thinking the right thing. That's the hard part.

Yeah, like on balance, I do think that you can see stuff bounce just because their debt is down so much. It's one of these scenarios where I actually think stocks could continue to go a little bit lower, though. And when we've seen stocks go lower and the times that Bitcoin has rallied during there, it doesn't necessarily drag altcoins up with it.

But I do think that positioning is very light something right now. You know, like I've told you, I've been in Sonic a little bit. So I took off parts of like the Delta neutral bits there and just like left some of those more risk on. That's the issue. The issue is, is that if you look at like activity and all these L1s, it's not really ticking higher. So, yeah,

You're really just after a beta play here. It's not like everyone's coming in to do stuff on them. And then, so I've kind of gone the best like TVL activity to market cap ratio. And Sonic always comes up pretty high on that. So like, I've looked at that. I did buy a little bit of Solana today. I don't know. Like, it's not like, I don't think it's like some super risky trade or anything like that. I just don't,

I think the one I sleep at night, brother, just don't even mention it to me. Don't even mention it to me, man. Like I'm not doing this again. Um, I, uh,

I think Bitcoin's just a more obvious trade. We'll just keep on going. Like I don't, every time we do the show, Bitcoin goes higher and ETH goes lower. Uh, it's like another week. Um, but yeah, I bought some Sonic. It was, I've been pretty, um, vocal that, you know, there's been some interesting stuff there and it's gone over a billion TVL. So that, that one's been interesting to me. And, um,

and I bought a little bit of Solana today, but Solana has felt terrible, right? Solana has really felt terrible over this period. Maybe that's a good thing, but I think Solana definitely relies on activity. So I feel like Solana is more like a bounce trade for me rather than something I'm just going to hold for a while. Yeah, that makes sense. I've thought a lot about ETH in the past week. I know we spoke about this last time, but...

Let's move on. Every show from every single commentator in crypto has probably had this theme for every week for the last two, three years. Oh, ETH looks cheap here. Yeah, you know, it's starting to look undervalued versus Bitcoin. Anyway, but yes. Let's talk about ETH. Why is it such a good trade this week? No, yeah. It's just tempting. For no other reason than it's at

a price of 1780 or whatever it is. Like it's like almost the lowest it's ever been since I've been in crypto. I know we had that moment where it went to three digits, but, um, if, if market cap is 217 billion still, uh, Solana's market cap is 60. Uh, which one would you rather ride? It's a tough one that like I've liked Solana, but I think a lot of the Solana activity has been predicated on meme coin stuff.

at least from an attention standpoint, if not necessarily numbers, but also numbers. So whether that continues or not, I don't know. I don't know whether that continues or not. Or Sonic at one and a half. Things are always tempting, you know? Yeah, I'm not that big a fan of Sonic because I think when you have an event like a big airdrop that everyone knows about and everyone is playing for, it never really works out, if that makes sense. Unless it's something that everyone ignores, but everyone's talking about it. So...

I had a bit of activity in Sonic. I bought some meme coins in Sonic and I liquidated them today at a 95% loss. That's not even an exaggeration. It's not that easy in the meme coin streets. But no, I think there's a place. We had this conversation a few months, maybe 12 months ago, do you remember? Or two years ago, maybe now. And I was like, there's nothing going on on these blockchains.

block space is way more block space and there is actually people doing them. Solana at the time was trading at like 12 and ETH was trading at, I think, 2K or something like that or 1.8. And I was like, I think Solana is going to continue to outperform. There's a world here where like, I think you see a compression there in a low cap blockchain, which has like got a lot of market capital of activity, you know, can catch up.

quite easily. Because there isn't that much going on right now. But anyway, my view right now is to own Bitcoin, as I've said, but I think that's the one that will benefit the most from global money printing. I'd still be wary of altcoins in a world where even with money printing, just because I think stocks can go, at least US stocks can go quite a bit lower. And I...

I don't know if altcoins go higher in that world, basically. My view is 100% you should have like a majority allocation to Bitcoin. That feels like the most obvious trade. But I think it's worth taking a punt on some riskier stuff that is down 99%. Here we go. What are you buying then? I think potentially some meme coins are interesting. Like I would say larger cap ones that will be intercycle. It's the first time I felt that way in a long time.

I still think the entire AI sector will have another run at some point this year. I think that stuff is really exciting, interesting levels because that stuff is really, really down. Literally, not an exaggeration, it's down like 95%. There's a lot of stuff that's down there. I think some of the other L1s, I would look at Sol, I'd look at Suri, I'd even look at ETH as I've mentioned. I just think all of it, I think

It's going to be hard to know. Some of this stuff may never come back, but within that mixture of what I just said, there's going to be some of those things that will be like three to 10x trades in there and potentially even more if some of the riskiest stuff hits.

And I just want to repeat, like it is taking a punt. It is a gamble. I'm not saying this is a really good investment. We should all do this and we're going to make money off it. But I don't really view myself as trading or investing in crypto. I view myself as gambling and speculating in crypto. And for me, I feel like that's worth a gamble. Like I think this, for me, I feel like this is, this is a sort of gamble that I would take that I've made money on in the past where you buy things when no one else is buying them.

You have to sit there, you have to be patient. You have to have some level of conviction. Like I really do believe the ISF will come back and that's my conviction, which is somewhat, feels somewhat contrarian right now. And then you just sort of have to sit there and be patient and, you know,

If you lose money, you lose money, you vice it off. Just like how if you bet on a match and you lose money, it's gone. That's how I view it. What you're saying does make sense. I mean, the only things that are green on my trading view, kind of in global markets today, Fartcoin, SPX, Doge, large cap memes are doing better today. That is true.

And there is that... Maybe there is a world where memes and Bitcoin again outperform like we saw at the start of last year. You know? I can see that. I can see that. But at the same time, like, I don't know. Yeah, maybe. You've got to risk it for the biscuit. You can't just... That's what we've come full circle, guys. I think I'm...

Bang the table. We can't just sit here every week and say, I don't know. I don't know. I think we just got to... I just told you I'm risk on today, but I've been buying Bitcoin and L1s. I have not looked at the memes and the memes are actually outperforming today, which is funny. So maybe now is the day to buy. You know what? I'm going to buy some Fartcoin. Why not? You've convinced me, OSF. I'll have a look. This is the day.

The global leading indicator of all markets is Bitcoin. It sold off first before the global market sold off and now it's looking a little bit strong. So maybe this is the leading indicator of all markets globally. Just, yeah, just again, like I think it's worth a punt. This is... I'm buying some right now because you're kind of convincing me to. This is the same. This reminds me of the FA Cup final last year.

when i'm a united fan it was the odds on man united to beat man city were 10 to 1 and i was like well i don't know if they're going to win or not but that's just for a two horse race those odds seem way off 10 to 1 it was literally 10 to 1 and i put i i think i put on like 500 quid or something yeah before the match yeah it was 10 to 1 for them to win within 90 minutes

Wow. That was a wild odds. Yeah. And this is when United were terrible and City were just like the best team in the world. Only about a year ago. And I also went to Wembley to watch the match and got my tickets paid for and some more. But it feels like that. For anyone who's going out there and

putting all their money into meme coins right now. I'm just reiterating like that's my culture and that's similar to that. It's like, I feel like that's worth a bet, but you know, bets don't necessarily make you money. Actually, they often, well, often they don't lose you money, but I think it's worth a bet.

Okay, well, I've made a bet. I've just done some. So no financial advice, but this is the real-time analysis you get on this show. We've pigmented mid-show from being Bitcoin maxis for six weeks to now saying now might not be a bad time to buy Fartcoin again. So that is done. Fartcoin is an interesting one because it's at a...

$456 million market cap. And I would have had that as much lower. It's Pepe a little bit, you know, like it stayed. Remember when Pepe did that very similar sort of move and then just went sideways and stayed in this range for a long time. If Fartcoin is up 80% in one month, that's a material outperformance of Todd Air Rises, man. Cross global risk assets. And I think it hit a high of what? $2.7 billion or something. Yeah.

Right. Well, let's see how wrecked we are next week with that. What do you think about, I mean, I guess we have quite different views about what's going to happen here to global markets, don't we? It sounds like you're of the view that this de-escalates. I'm of the view that this can escalate, but isn't necessarily that bad for rest of world stock slash crypto. I think that's where our main divergence is, right?

Yeah, I think we seem to have a similar outcome for prices, but maybe a different path to get there, it sounds like. But just think, I'm just going by history, which I think is escalation, de-escalation, escalation, de-escalation. And even in the context of this year, you've been paid to take the other side of every escalation and also take the other side of every de-escalation. And I think it's going to continue to be the same.

Until we get to a point where that band sort of starts to narrow and it gets consolidated and then hopefully we get to a better point. But that's what I think. Would you rather buy the Nasdaq or the Hang Seng right now? Hang Seng, I think. Just based on your comments of... Yeah, that's the thing. I think I don't mind buying...

I think I just, I just think China, China's just going to pop the hell out of this right now. Yes, I think so. I'd still rather go rest of world, which is kind of crazy because that's been a graveyard trade for a long, long time. But, and it's not necessarily a reflection of maybe even the economics behind it. You know, China, we've been, you know, it's very well known. They have a big population issues and the real estate market's a disaster, but do you think they're going to pump it here? Um,

Yeah, but I mean, those have been the big moves. Do you buy blood on some of these tech stocks? I think so. Like Tesla? I think so, yeah. And Nvidia? The other thing that really got hit was anything with the global supply chain, which is just like everything. Like Nike was down, I don't know how much it's down again today, but I'm sure it's down a ton. Any of those? Do you think those ones are...

still not a buy i don't see nike's up today nike's up today yeah i do think some of that big tech stuff is worth a stab as well um they're off a lot they're down quite a lot i don't think any of the stuff is going away i don't think the ai narrative is slowing down anytime you just saw open ai close a huge raise backed by softbank you've seen the developments of that in the last two weeks um

the entire world is still talking about AI and you're still seeing rapid, rapid development there. I really don't think that is slowing down anytime. And it's not too dissimilar to how we had just multi-year growth in dot-com stocks, even after the dot-com bubble burst. And the same thing for tech stocks like the FAANGs, et cetera, in the mid-2000s. I think we're just going to have a multi-year

AI boom. I wouldn't even call it a bubble. I think it's a genuine boom. And dips if we're buying those stocks. I think dips if we're buying stuff like NVIDIA. I don't think... I'm not worried about this Trump trade stuff. I think the only worry for that is in the dot-com era...

some of the initial winners were not continued winners. I agree that NVIDIA is maybe far more central. Yeah. I think this is just different. I say .com because it's just a similar tech-related thing, but at the end of the day, for the .com bubble, you had crazy valuations on things that did nothing. Kind of like crypto. But I think for the AI stuff, it's a genuine...

massive efficiency improvement across multiple different sectors across the world. I can't go throughout my day without using some sort of AI now. Like I'm, my circuit, circuit board trip today, I'm just there like taking pictures on chat GPT, figuring out how to isolate the RCD and figuring out how to isolate where it is and then just do it all myself. But yeah, without even, without even needing to call an electrician. And it's like,

I don't know if you should be doing that, man. It's all good, don't worry. Just been clicking some cables, it's fine. The man you really always wanted to be now. I think that stuff is very different to .com where it is very game-changing across for the whole world and

These things are making cash flows. They're all making massive cash flows. Yeah, I'm fully with you. I think everyone kind of is. The AI is just a huge, huge tailwind for the world. But, well, at least if the safety stuff is also kept under control. But it's just difficult sometimes with these stocks. I think what we've now seen is that sometimes the valuations...

They can get caught up very quickly with AI because AI is able to replicate stuff so quickly. Interestingly, we did see OpenAI come out with just a ginormous funding round. It came out, it was valued at $300 billion. I thought that was a good sign. Classic, yeah, but it's a good sign. Yeah, SoftBank, yeah. Oh, she's always there. I think SoftBank must be...

No disrespect to SoftBank, but one of the greatest top blasters ever to have lived, really. They're always about three months, four months late and just tripled the valuation. He's also called some incredible stocks throughout the time. There is something to be said about top blasting, you know? There is. There is. Yeah. Great friends.

Right. I think, should we bring on Team Arch public to get their views and chat about how the algo killed it once again, which I've had up and running. I was chatting to the guys before the show, actually, and they

So I had a buy on Bitcoin at around 81K or something like that. And a couple of days ago when everything... It was right when Trump started speaking on Liberation Day and I think Bitcoin rallied to 88, almost 89K and my Bitcoin sold. And I was like, oh, damn, I don't want to sell out there because Liberation Day is great and we're going to go back to 100K. And then lo and behold, it drops like 5% within the hour and...

I was grateful for that sale. Yeah, a great show, by the way, so far. I find myself in the same boat that you guys are in where I'm questioning, do I get back into some of these 95% down meme coins? And having those same debates with myself, I will say there's something unique and new about this cycle that Bitcoin has so many different ways to play it. The chop that's now being presented to us

is a heck of an opportunity to, you know, that volatility is valuable. And so that's one of the things that we love is when Bitcoin is bouncing around within a tight range, especially against other assets that are more volatile. It's kind of like if I ask myself this, if the trade goes against me, what do I want

to end up holding it in that case. And Bitcoin is that answer for me, like you guys have said. And so playing the chop through kind of an arbitrage strategy has proven to be very effective for us. And the tool that we've created allows you to play those choppy moments to perfection, right? It's always...

exiting when there's liquidity because it exits on green candles and it enters on red candles. And so it plays a way where you can take advantage of these moments where the volatility is moving up and down with significant variance and capture profits in those time periods and remain consistent

to your convictions as it pertains to holding something that you really believe in, like Bitcoin versus chasing that yield or chasing that potential in things that if you do get stuck with them and they don't ever recover, it's a lost cause at that point. So yeah, we've been really loving the action of the arbitrage strategy. And like I said, if you want to tighten the range during really, really tight

you know, periods, you can absolutely customize it and say, I want the range to be 2.1% or 1.5% or whatever you want it to be. Can I, can I ask, um, during this down move, obviously in the other, uh, Ethan soul, which I know you, you guys have a, have a program for as well. Like how, how has it performed? Because this is the sort of time I think we were just saying, like, maybe you do move into a more risky thing, uh,

Has that been more of a, obviously they've been in like downtrends. Have they still made money or are they really just like out for full? Yeah. So just yesterday there was a sole entry at nearly 117. So, you know, you got an entry into Solana underneath where it is right now.

So the profitability has been generally even better in more volatile assets, right? So Solana has additional volatility. So if you take the arbitrage associated with Solana, you're getting more action, more yield, and then more to the upside associated with those assets. In fact,

We put out a case study just late yesterday that's on our website in the support underneath the support tab that takes a look at using these three algorithms all at the same time, which, again, are all free.

Solana arbitrage, Bitcoin arbitrage and then Bitcoin accumulation using all of those at the same time generated over the last two years of 53 plus percent CAGR extraordinary cash yield. And then that cash yield is then reinvested in a Bitcoin, you know, as it's moved higher from early 2003 until where we are now.

So point being is, is that, yes, if you look under recipe stacks there, if you if you go to that spot on your left hand side, you're going to see that that case study recipe stacks. Right. Almost right there. Right. Go up a couple. There you go.

Yeah. And like Andrew said, these are free to use and to play with. Come to the website, archpublic.com, download the software, schedule a time to walk through the feature set with one of our team members. And I can assure you it's very flexible and it will get done what you want done during these volatile markets. And, you know, to Andrew's point, the more volatile the asset is, the more

more chances that range parameter is met and the more trades that happen. And so if you see, for example, a candle get exhausted to the selling side and there's an entry put into that, typically when something's exhausted to the selling side, you have some sort of recovery. And if you have that recovery parameter set properly, you're going to buy at the bottom and sell at the top,

you know of those candles so it provides you something that you can play the bounces essentially so how long before we do this for far coin as well then uh now technically we are we're working through the list of everything that jim and i offers right now on their platform so if far corn is available on jim and i it will eventually get get done yeah

I'm just saying, I bought some now and I could do with trading around the volatility a little bit. I'm just like, it's on the price now. Listen, I'll send you my manifesto on DCAing into fart coin. It's solid. Just a reminder to listeners and people watching the show,

you know, as it relates to just broader markets, right? The oil embargo in 1973, Black Monday, 1987, dot-com bubble, 2000, 2001, financial crisis, 08, 09, COVID in 2020. Now we're here at tariffs. Every time it's a buying opportunity, like every single time it's been a buying opportunity.

And so the question is, is it a buying opportunity? That's everything I have on the sideline. I, you know, smash buy right now, probably not. You scale in during these volatile times and you're scaling in at smaller prices. You know, it's the question of, you know, Nvidia or AI or some of these tech stocks. Yeah, that's a difficult question. And that question goes to, of those six stocks,

six moments that I listed, which one are we at right now? Right. So if we were at the dot com bubble, you would have said to yourself, hey, I need to buy some Amazon. Well, in reality, Amazon went from like two hundred dollars down to like nine bucks at that point. That was a different there were there were moments where you bought and it still went down by 50 percent and another 50 percent and another 50 percent.

So is this Black Monday in 1987 or is this dot-com bubble or global financial crisis? What big differences there? Black Monday, 1987, you know, go look at the markets in 88, 89, 90 until we got to 91 where there was kind of a flat, you know, flat year there. You know, go look at the markets. So are we in, is it Black Monday or is it,

You know, are we looking at a dot com? And to Andrew's point, the only way to manage those circumstances is to manage your cash appropriately, right? Right. You only get in trouble in those events when you try to pick the bottom and you smash by all of your capital. And at the bottom, you know, if you believe in the base asset that you're accumulating, if you believe in the fundamental value of

the Bitcoin network and its upside potential over a long period of time, then you just are accumulating and you're accumulating at different price brackets, which is DCAing. And it's going to give you an entry curve that is less risky than you going in and smash buying all at once. And so don't smash buy out of convenience.

There's tools like the ones that we've created that will allow you to do a very scheduled method to your madness. So that when I look at it, look at equities and Bitcoin and anything that you're putting money into, like a clothing brand that you really like.

Well, in a perfect world, you'd love to have a lot of pieces in your closet. But when it comes on sale, that's when you go put more capital to work. You go accumulate during those sale periods. And so look at Bitcoin in the same manner as you want to own some of it over the long term. You should be accumulating intelligently at these dips. And you should be managing those in a way that you can set it and forget it. And you're taking advantage of those volatile moments.

you know, without having to ride the emotional swings that go along with it. Yeah. So I think that's a good point. You just said is to bring us back to like some of the other major sell-offs, because I think most people, at least people have been, you know, have come in over the last couple of last few years. They just know the COVID stuff of which it was a V shape. And, you know, you had to have the guts to buy it.

But, you know, if you bought it, you just made money straight away. Other sell-offs can actually go on for a lot longer than that. I just don't think people necessarily...

realize that like 2008 went on for a while you know um wasn't just a one month dip and back and then similarly the the 2001 stock market bubble again that that was a while too um although obviously there were some hairy moments at the start so like it is a tool like this does and like you said dca at times like this i think it

people are maybe not doing that as much as they should. I saw yesterday was the

retail bought the most stocks they've ever bought on a single day. And that has made me think they think this is like COVID. And this doesn't feel like COVID to me. Well, retail has been told and they have been taught to learn a lesson over the past 40 years. And over the past 40 years is it's not buy low and sell high. It's buy low and sell when you die.

That is literally what they've been told by their financial advisors, by Larry Fink, by BlackRock, by Vanguard, by every ETF company that they've ever put a dollar into. It's buy low and sell when you die. So if you think about what you just said, Mando, that retail put the most into stocks and the history of that is the action behind the thesis that retail has been taught

those that have money, by the way. So let's call it boomers. Boomers have been taught to buy low and sell when you die, period, end of story. So when they see huge dips like this, they think to themselves, opportunity, right? Eight plus percent in two days, opportunity. I also find it extraordinarily compelling that we're down almost 9% in two days as we sit here right now. And Bitcoin is absolutely flat.

Global money supply is going up. Everybody knows it. And so what happens? There's a lag. And I think that's what the impetus is. I think a lot of people see some big opportunities in the near future. I think the printing press is going to have to continue to accelerate. I think that what Trump is doing right now, to speak to some of the things that you guys were talking about earlier, he's renegotiating our interest rates on all of our debt.

That's what's happening. If you see the yield drop to the largest drop that it's happened in the last decade, happened this week. And that directly impacts the cost of our debt. And so if you can drive down our debt

renegotiate at better rates and grow the top line through new investments and domestically, you're cutting the problem from both sides. And so I do think to your point, Mando, this is going to be a longer process than next week's V-shaped recovery. I think the V-shape will come when

we see major quantitative easing. And I don't think that's right now. I think it's probably a couple of months away. And in the meantime, I think there's more pain to suffer because I think we want as low of an interest rate as we can possibly get when we start moving the other direction.

We were at the lows with the S&P in 2009. By the way, the financial crisis started in 2008, and we didn't hit the lows on the S&P until 2009 at 666 and change.

I remember that day. I remember that moment. Mark Haynes was the lead guy in the morning for CNBC, and he came on the show with an army helmet with a with a medical cross on it. Like and he actually said, I think this feels like that. This feels like capitulation. This feels like the lows. And he actually nailed it. He's since passed, but he nailed that low right there.

And then another point of reference is when Trump took office the first time in 2016, the S&P was at 1,900.

Before this sell-off started, we were at $6,000. So asset prices, equity prices, everything prices have gone absolutely parabolic for the past decade. And so an 8% to 10% sell-off, and maybe there's more to come,

We shall see. But there's again, historically, there's opportunity here. It's just a question of when does that opportunity reveal itself to the upside? Is it in the next month or is it in the next 18 months? Well, if you had played a mean regression strategy every time the price of Bitcoin crossed ninety thousand over the last six months, you would have cleaned up.

Because it was like, it probably did it five times plus or minus $6,000 on each side. That's like a game-changing type, you know, stacking stats. You could double your stack in a time period like that. That's a big opportunity. I just think one of the, for me, one of the funniest things right now is that we spend and people spend time talking about

COVID and the great financial crisis and the dot-com bubble and it's not just this conversation like it's just over my timeline over other conversations I've had and all these like previous market crashes are being brought up now as if they're comparable to what's happening now and

I just don't know how much I can emphasize. This is nothing like how bad those things were. COVID, we're all fucking locked in our houses thinking, is the world going to end? And you literally had a global shutdown of the entire economy. It's magnitudes different. Bill, we got on CNBC and said, hell is coming.

That's not happening today, right? Bill Ackman isn't getting on talking about the end of the world, let's call it. Yes, if all these tariffs are implemented and you have a global trade war, that could be very bad. But we don't even know with any certainty if 20% of that's going to happen, let alone the entire thing. So I just think we're selling off more because we've just had an insane run for two years, both in...

equities in crypto as well. And at some point people like, ah, where do I take money off? Why don't I take money off? And now there's a reason to take money off. And I wish I thought that, but I think Trump's such a pedal to the metal type guy that if he could ride a wave of momentum, he would take advantage of that. So it tells me that like the dynamic between our federal reserve and the executive branch is pretty squirrely right now. Um, and it's,

in order for him to force them to lower interest rates, he's doing exactly that. And so what happens when you get lower interest rates? Everybody can refinance all of their wealth of their real estate and start spending money again. And I think this is just all about lowering interest rates on both our debt and allowing kind of our economy to...

come up with some liquidity. Yeah, I don't disagree with that. I think Trump may want, you know, to cause this to happen. I think to your point, though, Seth, like,

One of his smartest moves here, maybe over the weekend, there was already some commentary that he's about to do a deal with Argentina. He could do a deal with Australia and the UK like that. You know? Nope, we're going to get rid of tariffs there because they've got trade surpluses. And then he'd be seen to be a rational negotiator that then other countries could be like, right, we'll do this, this, this, this, this. And if that happens, I do think...

because everything's been baked in so much, like you said, you could bounce. But I would be very unsurprised if we have weakness in stocks for a few months here. Like this is the thing. I think everyone assumes it's going to be a COVID-like V-shaped recovery because that's been the only real sell-off, like proper sell-off that people have seen for the last, since 2008, really. Yeah.

And I think this is more like a, this could have a, like what you said, it's, we're going to see a period here where he doesn't mind if, if stocks go down and bonials go down and they've got to refinance, uh,

you know, trillion, I think it's above 5 trillion of debt already this year, right? So I would be unsurprised if this lingers on for a while, but I think Bitcoin can do well in all this. Obi was right talking about the differences today versus like the financial crisis. Like people were genuinely concerned that Bank of America was going out of business. Like literally people thought that that was about to happen.

that's very different than where do we land on tariffs with Vietnam and China in the next few months. Now, that doesn't mean that price action associated with this narrative ends up being elongated and feeling painful. But there's a huge difference between Bank of America going out of business and trading at $2.26 and

and NVIDIA 97. It's reasonable. Very much agree with that. This has been a great discussion to end it with. Really appreciate you guys coming in there. Obviously,

Brought us back to all the previous crises as well. We were probably very young back in the 2001 target crash. Yeah. But yeah, thank you. I know that also Raoul did like an emergency podcast yesterday alongside Jamie Coutts.

go check that out. I think it's actually not just on Real Vision, it's kind of across on his YouTube channel and I think he'll be all over the platform at the moment alongside a load of other people with their hot takes on what this means for both crypto and broader macro. So go check it out on Real Vision there as well.

Before we go, yeah, before we go, got a quick question for everyone. Do you think the trade war will escalate or was this a bluff? Let us know in the comments on the Real Vision website, on Twitter, on YouTube. Make sure you're following us all on X and please, please, please make sure you check out realvision.com forward slash arch.

to register for ArchPublic's product. It's free to register at the entry level. I've been making money trading Bitcoin better than I've ever traded it, to be honest with you, without doing anything. So I would highly recommend experimenting with that at least. It's free. Check it out. And we will be back as usual next Friday. You can catch us live at 11.30 a.m. Eastern time or 4.30 p.m. now, British summertime. I hope everyone has a great weekend and stay positive. Stay positive. Have a good one, guys.

Join over 7,000 attendees on June 18th to 19th at Super AI Singapore, Asia's largest AI event. East will meet West as industry leaders converge for two unparalleled days exploring the exponential AI age.

Join us to unveil the future of LLMs, the intersection of AI and crypto, robotics, drones, space tech, the societal and economic impact of generative AI, and much more. Get tickets at superai.com with promo code REALVISION for an exclusive 20% off, only while tickets last. If you liked this episode, I'd love for you to head over to realvision.com forward slash join for a free membership. Start your journey today to unfuck your future just one click away.

Have you ever wanted to trade Bitcoin but haven't dared try? With Plus 500 Futures, you can trade crypto without the hassle of opening a wallet. With just a few clicks, you can register and start practicing with their free and unlimited demo. See a trading opportunity? You'll be able to trade it in just two clicks. Feel ready?

Thank you.

Plus 500. It's trading with a plus.