REKT Vision: How To Survive the Crypto Chop ft. Ovie "OSF" Faruq, Andrew Parish aka AP_Apacus & Tillman Holloway from Arch Public
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contributing to the ecosystem that makes it all possible. So check out Bitwise, go to bitwiseinvestments.com and see all they've got to offer. That's bitwiseinvestments.com or just email them at james at bitwiseinvestments.com and let them know Rekt brought you over. There are a million ways to access crypto. Do it with those who care about the ecosystem. Look for Bitwise.

Please remember to carefully consider the extreme risks associated with crypto before investing.

Well, good morning and good afternoon, everyone. We are back with the Rekt Vision show. We have two special guests on today in place of...

of Mando who is unable to make it this week but hopefully fingers crossed should be back next week. We have Andrew Parrish who some of you met very briefly at the end of last show and his colleague Tillman both from Archpublic something I was using for the last few days and I think we'll have some very interesting stuff to go through on that that I think is certainly worth exploring if you haven't yet already but Andrew and Tillman welcome to the show how are you guys doing?

Doing well. Glad to be here. Yeah, doing fantastic. Thanks for having us, Ovi. It's been a great week. It's been a fun week in the world of crypto and Bitcoin, that's for sure. Have you ever wanted to trade Bitcoin but haven't dared try? With Plus 500 Futures, you can trade crypto without the hassle of opening a wallet. With just a few clicks, you can register and start practicing with their free and unlimited demo. See a trading opportunity? You'll be able to trade it in just two clicks. Feel ready?

Thank you.

Anywhere. Experience the fast, accessible futures trading you've been waiting for with Plus 500. With over 20 years of experience, Plus 500 is your gateway to the markets. Visit us.plus500.com to learn more. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Not all applicants will qualify. Plus 500. It's trading with a plus. Every time I do the show, I feel like recently so much has happened during the week that I have to

go into my trading view and look at the Bitcoin chart and look at where it was last week, just to like, you know, gain my bearings, especially when you're just so like plugged in on a day to day basis. So we're actually, I mean, right now I'm sitting here feeling euphoric that Bitcoin is back at 85K, but we're actually down 5% on the week, believe it or not. Which is, which feels, you know, it feels like a long time ago. Hi, Raoul here.

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Yeah, right now, volatility is the name of the game, right? So volatility is the name of the game. It's here to stay for a while. Markets, all markets are still getting used to the ebbs and flows of a new administration here in the United States and the pace and speed at which that administration is moving.

So it can be a double-edged sword. Meaning, for example, Trump made a ton of promises at the Bitcoin conference last year. And in seven weeks, he's made good on all of those promises, right?

At the same time, depending on what day it is, there's a tariff for 20% or 15% or 10% or 30% or 200%. You just don't know which one it is. You've got to go back and say, well, at 10 o'clock, it was 25. And now at 2 o'clock, it's 200% on wine in France.

Right. So so you take the good with the bad. And I think markets are adjusting to that pace when the previous administration was basically zero pace. And we hate crypto and let's try and kill it. So different realities. And at the same time, trying to adjust to those realities, the markets are, you know, extra volatile at the moment. Yeah. But I think the.

the genius behind what the tariffs do and that nobody's really talking about is, you know, it's one thing to impose tariffs on a country that doesn't have tariffs imposed upon you. It's another thing to raise all your tariffs to match the opposing tariff. What that does is it really resets the debt and

And it allows interest rates to come down in the midterm. And we're going to refinance our entire debt under better terms. And that's really what we have to do. He's attacking our debt, and he's going to attack our top line. I will say that the markets don't like uncertainty. And obviously, a lot of retail sees the uncertainty. But I don't see the institutions buying into the uncertainty, to be honest with you. In fact, I see...

more and more companies that are getting risk on assets onto their balance sheet like Bitcoin. I see every institution that has any reputation in the space as a market maker, including Citadel, coming in to create their own gymnasium and playground and digital marketplace in Texas where it's going to be open 24-7. And from all

vantage points, it looks like it's going to be fully tokenized. I would venture to guess that it's going to have some feel of being tokenized as it pertains to the instant settlement qualities that tokenization gives you. And so I think we're moving to this frictionless environment.

And when you move to a frictionless environment from a system that has tremendous friction at every level, there's a lot of disruption. Because the friction that we experience as Americans in every agency and institution within our government requires a huge amount of people to solve. And those people are very expensive. And they...

you know, historically aren't the best at solving the problems. And so when you get systems in place, you disrupt a lot of that human capital and they have to find new ways to be helpful and useful inside of, you know, their core competencies. And I just see this disruption from, you know,

top line revenue perspective in terms of the tariffs and cutting cost perspective as something that a lot of people see as being disruptive. But in the midterm, long term, I see it as the only way out, quite honestly. And if you can leverage, if you can reduce the cost of your debt

And at the same time, acquire a lot of hard assets on the cheap when they're on sale right before money supply goes through the roof, which global money supply is already going through the roof. And Bitcoin traditionally lags money supply by a month. Well, guess what? The last month of money supply is a straight, you know, more than 45 degree angle. So...

I just think this is a shakeout. Just like every bull cycle we've ever had, there are charts to prove this, but there are massive drawdowns of 30 plus percent. And those have to happen in order for the right angle to, you know, the 45 degree angle to continue on the upside. It's part of the bull run. So I look at it as positive. It means that we've gone up by 100% in the last six months.

Two particular points of what I would call bullish reference this week, and both of them happened in the last two days. One is a note that got put out by JP Morgan's most well-known macro analyst regarding the economy and markets.

And basically, it was a double down in terms of bullishness saying that, you know, yeah, you can get yourself all tied up in tariffs, all tied up in politics, all tied up and all that stuff. But the bottom line is, is that ultimately the markets will respond to revenue growth and top and bottom line growth associated with biggest companies in the world. And what do you think is happening at the biggest companies? Well, they're still printing serious money. And

In other words, stay long, stay invested. There's no reason to allow fear to be a part of the conversation when markets are down 8% to 10% across the globe. The other point of reference for bullishness is BlackRock has a Biddle portfolio, B-U-I-D-L, where it's not just their Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs.

They've taken positions in tokens like Aptos, Arbitrum, Avalanche, Polygon, and a couple others. The last I checked, that portfolio was right around 500 million bucks, which for BlackRock is not that much, but it just passed a billion dollars, right? Now, stay with me here. I don't think that those tokens have gone up by 100% over the last three months. If anything, they've gone the other way.

Point being, though, is that that capital increase is coming from inflows into that portfolio. And the only people that are allowed to invest in that portfolio right now at BlackRock are institutions that have meaningful relationships with BlackRock.

Meaning that, you know, there is money flow still going to crypto and the largest asset manager on the planet is encouraging money flow into not just Bitcoin and Ethereum, but other tokens that they think have meaningful utility going forward with the tokenization of markets and real world assets.

And the real world assets that people have been trading in TradeFi this last year have seen tremendous inflows. And there's new assets being created every day. The one that I really was fascinated with this week, I was on a spaces with the Bitwise team, and they were going through their Bitcoin standard corporations ETF. Have you guys heard about that? That's going to change the game. And as we were listening to this,

And you're seeing this, you know, it's going to be updated quarterly with new companies that own at least a thousand Bitcoin on their balance sheet. And so as new companies start to make these announcements, there's going to be tremendous options plays to be had on this ETF. And, you know, the more products that are created and the easier those products are to access and to use, the

The more users are going to take advantage of them, the more liquidity is going to find them. And these companies are so tapped into the market, it'd be very hard for me to believe that they're going to all this effort. Citadel, Larry Fink, Bitwise, those types of people aren't building without knowing that the audience and the users are there is the point. The liquidity will come. So it feels like what's to blame is

for the volatility, which both of you guys mentioned, is Trump, is tariffs, is potentially extending to the performance of maybe some big tech stocks like Tesla, etc. All of this really, really reminds me of December 2018. There's so many parallels to that market. And I remember in December,

2018, I first moved to NYC to start trading out of there from London. And I was a very short bias trader back then. So I just, you know, short into every sell off and everything. And in December, I was like, oh, man, this is finally all over. It's all going to come crashing down these crazy big tech valuations, etc, etc, etc. And

I was reading an article that was published on the 27th of December, 2018, which says it was something like six reasons for the stock market crash in 2018. And it was Trump tariffs. It was big tech valuations. It was worries about the Fed having raised rates. And I think it raised rates four times in that year. There was a talk of inflation as well. So it was, it was literally like the exact same concerns, almost the,

concern for concern, almost a complete mirror of the exact same concerns as we have now under the same presidency. And obviously what happened in 2019 was that the Fed had a huge pivot, realized that it overshot. They cut rates three times in 2019.

Tariffs kind of went towards the backbench a little bit more and cooled off. And there were some various resolutions that were reached. And we had an insane stock market rally in 2019 where it wasn't just like a big gap up. It was just a gradual rally over the course of the year, which I remember very well because that was the only year I've actually lost money in the professional trading seat having been short all year.

And then I was like, why did I have this short position? But anyway, it seems very similar to me. And so now, I personally think the reason why we're seeing Trump's very cavalier actions is because, okay, he's like, well, look, right now the base rate is what? Four and a quarter to four and a half. And we have 2.9% inflation. At the beginning of 2022, the base rate was 0.25 to 0.5%. And we had about 8% inflation.

So it was just a completely different level by a huge magnitude where there were no levers for the Fed to pull in 2022. It was like, oh, fuck. The economy is kind of shit and inflation is crazy high and rates are zero. So what the hell do we do? And it was just full on panic. Give away a lot of money. That's the only answer. Yeah, that sell-off was very warranted. Whereas now it's like, okay, if shit starts to hit the fan and we're seeing inflation come low, we're seeing...

payroll is coming a little bit lower. They have so much cushion to start lowering rates before you even think about QE or any of that stuff. And so Trump obviously is aware of this. He's like, cool, what can I do tariff-wise? Let me just lay everything out on the table, kitchen sink everything, knowing that if we get to a tough spot, he can start whacking Powell on the head and being like, okay, come on,

hey man, like, come on, it's time to start cutting rates. So my belief is that the market actually has a really big put that is sometimes forgotten about or not priced in. I'm talking about, we've talked about this Fed put many times over the last decade, you know, almost two decades now. So I think that exists and it's kind of not being priced in right now. And for me, maybe we don't see it at next week's FOMC, but if we have another month of

weakening payrolls, weakening labor market data, lower inflation. In May, you could have a very different FOMC to what we've had for the last six to 12 months, which could really be a risk on moment for I think the entire market and obviously crypto falls into that bucket as well. So

That's kind of my view on a macro level. And I think for crypto, I don't really believe in charts, but the one chart I do believe in is following that global liquidity chart. And I think it's very, very clear that Bitcoin, the Bitcoin price action versus that has displayed massive, very strong correlation over a long period of time. And it just seems to have lined up perfectly once again, I think, for a bounce here. So I'm definitely with you guys. And I think for the last...

couple of weeks in the show mando and i've definitely been harping on about buying risk here and we've had moments where we felt like we've we've made out the words and then only for it to come crashing down again but you know i think that's just because we're going to have this period of chop and i guess volatility um until maybe there's a bit more clarity in the macro fund but it's hard not to think this is a good spot to buy risk i think still well i agree and i think the the

What you hit the nail on the head is that Trump is unpredictable. Markets don't like that short term. But the unpredictable nature of that is what you have to bring to the negotiation table to actually negotiate a new deal, right? If you come with the exact same stance that the previous administration came to, terms won't change.

In order for terms to change, the opposing party to those negotiations have to believe you're as unpredictable as anything that could happen to them, because then they have to start offering things to get you to be more predictable. That's the nature of negotiations. And I do think, you know, we've gotten ourselves into such unbalanced positions from, you know,

what I would consider to be fair and equitable in the global trade markets that you have to do this in order to kind of reset everything. And matching tariffs,

on every other country that has tariffs on us is literally the way in which you go to zero. You reset. You go to an equal playing ground and say, okay, the previous negotiations are behind us. We're at zero now. Where would you like to go from here? Are you going to escalate beyond zero or are we going to stay at zero? Or, hey, if we're at 25% tariffs already,

on each of us, why don't we just go to 0% and save the consumer some money? So there's real tactics, I think, that are being deployed here in those negotiations to get our interest rates down. And that's what, to your point, is going to drive this whole next bull run is liquidity and low interest. If people can go and develop real estate with a very low carry cost, refinance that real estate and take cash and buy things with it, then...

everything go up.

Well, Obi, we did actually solve from last week's show to this week's show the reason why there is a strategic cheese reserve on the books of the United States. Because, you know, dairy and cheese are tariffed in a big way from Canada. It's like a 200 percent number or something like that. So it makes sense that the United States has what was it, Swiss cheese or something? Yes, that's right. Yeah. Yeah.

I don't know if you know this, Tillman, but there's an actual Swiss cheese stockpile that the United States has. It's like one and a half billion dollars worth as well. Yeah, it's like a billion dollars. When somebody needs a Reuben sandwich, nothing but the Swiss will do, okay? We have to have our Reuben sandwiches. New York can't operate without going and getting a Reuben. By the way, Obi, have you ever watched the show Industry?

I have, yes. Okay, so that just sounds like your career, going from London to New York, right? The whole trading thing. Well, industry, believe it or not, I believe is based off of Barclays Capital, which is the bank...

used to work at. Yeah, not surprised. Not surprised at all. I mean, industry is obviously a very glamorized version of... I don't want to say my life was that cool or uncool, depending on how you view it. But there's definitely a lot of similarities. A lot of similarities and

As long as you don't show up at any point, one of these shows looked at Rishi did in the last season, all bloodied up and, you know, he'd been out all night and his, his life was falling apart. Yeah. As long as we're good on that, you know, we'll, we'll be fine, but yeah, great, great show. It just reminded me of that when you said you'd gone from London to New York from a trading standpoint, that's,

That is very Barclays, that's for sure. Definitely, definitely. Yeah, because Barclays was acquired by Lehman Brothers. Sorry, Barclays acquired Lehman Brothers European assets, I believe, in 2010 or whatever it was. So had quite a strong... The team that I joined was all the Lehman, former Lehman credit traders. So it was an interesting...

yeah wild wild time back then i i remember i almost bought bank of america america stock at 2.25 i had a limit order on for 225 and it got down to 227 and didn't fill and to this day to this day i still can't forget that trade to this day i can't forget that trade that was at the height of the the whole panic and you know is bank of america gonna go belly up and i'm thinking

it's Bank of America you think America is gonna let Bank of America go belly up like what are we talking about here yeah they might be on the too big to fail list I don't know maybe just maybe well speaking of volatility um you know pivoting here to taking advantage of

of uh volatility you know the reality is you know over the past two weeks almost a month now Bitcoin has has seen extra volatility uh you know we we can be at 83 one day and then there's a tweet or a post or something it goes to 94 and then it shimmies back down to 83 and then over the weekend we'll go down to 80 79 and back up to where we're at now 84 and change

You know, our firm arch public, you know, the idea for us is to create institutional level tools that people can then take advantage of that volatility. And so.

For us, it's been a labor of love to bring our products to retail investors. Again, a reminder that these tools have been institutional type tools for 40 plus years. Jim Simons was the godfather of high frequency trading slash algorithmic trading at Renaissance Tech in Long Island 40 plus years ago. And it was such a, you know, what's the word I'm looking for? It was such a hack, you

a Wall Street hack that they kept it to themselves for nearly 30 years and wouldn't allow anybody else into their firm. And then they opened it up to institutions about a decade ago. And Jim died like a year and a half ago. Point being, though, is that this stuff, algorithmic trading, has been part of the Barclays of the world for several decades.

And Tillman and I, you know, we had to bring it to retail because retail doesn't have the opportunity to do this. And, you know, Obi, why don't you talk about your experience with the software over the last few days, over the last week and what your thoughts are? Yeah, so I set this up for myself. Let me try to share my screen. Actually, it might be an easier way to describe. But yeah, I set this up for myself.

this week, mainly because I think I'm pretty good at not getting emotional around trading. And I think I'm pretty good at buying dips and, you know, just not being a bit fearless. What I'm not good at sometimes is taking profits.

um what i'm not good at now is being at the desk when i want to execute sometimes and yeah um maybe if any of you guys i'm sure as both you guys have families like you'll realize sometimes you're just not there or crypto is a 24 7 market and you may be i don't know out playing golf on sunday or something and it's like oh fuck i just missed that big you know yeah big red wick or whatever so that's been the main thing for me and it's like i really would i would have bought bitcoin at 79k or

I would have bought it at 78k. I would have done it in size, but I just missed it. And so I felt in these periods of volatility, and anyone who's traded in the trenches, so to speak, in the meme coin market will understand this. You sometimes feel like you have to just be glued to your desk the entire time. And then you just get so stuck into this bubble of intra-second price action or whatever it is. And then it's very hard to, I think, trade effectively. And

So what this tool does, and I guess like how we sort of started beginning about talking about it last week is like setting yourself and the way that I view it from my perspective is setting yourself levels and not necessarily set yourself levels at where you'd buy tokens, but setting yourself, I guess, percentage backups as to where you would enter risk and percentage increases as where you would sell risk and have the ability to define what your total starting capital is.

how much you want to buy when you get a pullback, how much you want to sell when it bounces back up.

how often you want to repeat that strategy and all these different variables that you can choose and pick to create, I guess, what you guys call a recipe. So I set this up for myself last week. Unfortunately, I didn't quite set it up correctly. So I missed out on some great, great Bitcoin prints despite having it. I think we're all set up here now, but I just wanted to talk through, you know, some of these strategies and recipes that we have here. So for example,

I'm using the top recipe here, which is the stock.

one that you guys suggest. I can't remember what you guys call it. I guess there's some sort of ARB strategy. Yeah, it's the arbitrage or the instance-based strategy. If you click the eyeball to the right of that strategy, it'll actually open up the equity fair. Yeah. And so this is exactly what you just described. It's a way in which you can set up thresholds and down thresholds to have trigger events. And so what you just described is kind of, I think,

what plagues every trader is that the market doesn't care when you want to trade. It presents volatility at times where you may or may not be available to trade. And so that volatility, like Andrew was talking about, is a gift if you're ready for it. And what I mean by that is, you know, if Bitcoin drops by 2.5% in a six-hour window, typically,

It's a large red candle, and the candle will become exhausted over that six-hour time frame, and it's a good entry at the bottom of that candle. Now, this is all predicated on the fact that you are a Bitcoin believer. So if you want to accumulate Bitcoin, the way that I look at this strategy is very similar to buying a covered call. If you're in the money...

If you make a purchase, let's say at $79,000 in Bitcoin and it goes up and it's in the profit and the sentiment starts to turn and that indicator triggers a sell at 84, well, you've made $5,000 on that trade. You were in the money and it took that cash off the table so that you have more liquidity in your trading account and you can place larger trades in the future.

Let's say the price continues to fall beyond that 79 level. Well, you're not going to sell that position.

You're going to hold that position for a longer term. You're going to hold it as a swing trade until it goes above 79. And so if you are interested in accumulating Bitcoin for the large parabolic moves that happen traditionally 10 days out of every year, then that's the pile that you're building. It's the trades that you buy on the exhausted timeframes that continue to fall in price.

And if you do both of those things, you can have a cash create event where all your up trades, you're creating profits and all your down trades, you're accumulating your hodl position. You're accumulating Bitcoin for the parabolic move. So if you have a base thesis that Bitcoin is going to continue to perform over the next epochs like it has in the previous epochs, which is about a 40% rate of, you know,

internal rate of return every year. And now that we've had this spike, I think it's gone up to an adjusted about 100%. But if you believe that Bitcoin is going to continue to outperform other assets and you see it as a hedge against inflation,

Well, then you should be a buyer not only for the short-term volatility purposes of creating cash, but also for the long-term hold qualities of the appreciation value. And so that's what this strategy specifically does. And that's how you can essentially play with the percentage up and percentage down strategy.

qualities and the time periods to craft something that's specific to you. If you want something that's executing a lot of trades, you're going to have the thresholds very, very small. If it moves 1% in a one-hour period, it's going to trade. And you get to define what that volatility looks like so that you can not only create something that works for you, but the beauty of our software is it's integrated with TradingView and you can backtest

all of those parameters right there instantly and see how they would have performed over specific time periods. So in this one here that I have set up, it's set up to purchase 500. So my starting capital is $10,000. So $10,000 is what I've put in and we'll only ever take $10,000. And this is connected to my Gemini account. But I think you guys are working on other exchanges as well, which you'll have up here soon. So if it,

If Bitcoin falls by 2.5%, it will automatically buy $580 worth of Bitcoin. And that's done through the API connection I have with Gemini through TradingView into ArchPublic, which honestly, it took me less than 10 minutes to set up, probably about five minutes to set up. It's pretty easy to do. And then if Bitcoin rises by 2.1%, it will sell $260 worth of that position. So you can see like it's...

Buying a larger amount on a larger backup, selling a smaller amount on a smaller increase, which is how you accumulate that Bitcoin over time. And it basically just does this automatically. So I don't really have to do anything. And I think the cool thing about this is you can, as you said, we can backtest it for different time periods and stuff and see how the strategy would have performed. So I don't know. I guess let me go to this one here. Go to... Where do I change this again to see the backtesting?

well right there quickly you know you can show folks that there was a you know you you've got a uh uh yeah you got along there right on right on your chart yeah so you know that's 70 not 78 and change right 78.3 k i automatically went long right now right so there is

what i just consider to be the the beauty of of the algorithm itself the beauty of algorithmic automated trading is that you know in across crypto twitter when we were at 78 79 80 of people that think that they know what they're talking about are like well we're probably going to 62 right

Or we may touch the 50s. We may still do that. But in the moment, 99% of retail traders are like, how in the world am I going to have the balls to hit buy on a 78K Bitcoin print when everybody that I follow says don't do that?

Right. The algorithm doesn't care about anybody on crypto Twitter is not listening to anybody. It's just using math to to to grow your position in Bitcoin over time. And then when you get a pop that's more than two point one percent on a six hour candle, you're going to sell a little bit of it and generate cash yield.

Again, an extraordinary tool that removes the emotions of fear and greed and simply executes a plan that you're comfortable with over a longer and extended period of time.

And you can adjust that. For example, if you notice, you know, this is a two-week chart. If you notice that giant downturn after the big candle right at the beginning of March, you know, those one, two, three, four, five, six subsequent red candles right there on the right-hand side, we didn't enter any positions. The algorithm didn't enter any positions because it didn't meet the qualifications to do that. But you could absolutely change the variables to make the

you know, to essentially purchase on every one of those downturns. And the beautiful thing about the software is like Andrew said, it's not doing, it's not guessing where the bottom is. It's actually using average price volatility in the last two weeks to determine where that velocity is going and where the bottom is. And so when you see a

candle become exhausted and you see the parameters be met, it's going to enter a position on that exhaustion and it's going to enter a position based upon the parameters that you have individually met. And so you can make this more aggressive, less aggressive. This is a very conservative. This is more of like a, you know, a very biased

uh bias towards the buy side if you notice the two times that it's entered in the last couple of weeks have been at the very bottom of major downturns that's a conservative way to to to use the software uh let me let's switch to the intelligent buying algo and let me run through that so turn the eye off so hide this one and then turn the other one on this one here

And then double-click it, and it should pull up your settings. And then if you go down to the very bottom of this first page of settings, let's see here. No, this isn't the intelligence. Go to the third one. This one here? Yeah, but you're going to have to hide and then open it up. So do you see – let's see here. Go down to the very bottom, if you don't mind, of that page. Okay.

Should be at the bottom right here. Okay. I'm on too small of a screen to see if you're on the right strategy. Let's go to the charts that we have, the static charts, and I can see those better. They're much larger. Okay.

If you notice all of the cells are on the top of big green candles and all the buys are at the bottom, excuse me, the buys are at the bottom of the red candles, the cells are at the top of the green candles. Again, you can define what those thresholds look like, but you're always going to be buying. So one of the things that most traders do that

is bad for their entries, both their fill prices on both the buys and the sells is you should theoretically be buying all of your positions, right, at the bottom of exhaustion. But most people start buying at the breakout. They're actually buying on green candles and selling on red candles.

Those are going to get you horrible fill prices. And that's what automation gives you an advantage in, in the fact that it's calculating things so quickly on your behalf and then acting on those calculations that you're not caught. So, for example, if you look at the middle of the screen on that giant green candle where we exited, okay?

That exit happens at the top of the body, not the top of the wick, but the top of the body or the close of that giant green candle. Look at the volatility of the next green candle.

Total indecision. You have no idea what to do. It actually would, as a traditional trader, you would think that's a continuation pattern because the wick on the bottom is much longer than the wick on the top, which is a bullish signal. But look at what happened. It was an absolute waterfall event. And instead of getting emotional about that waterfall event and selling on the second or the first trade,

red candle and losing 20 or 30% of the potential profit we would have, we exited on the green candle. We circumvented having to sell in the waterfall event by getting out at the top of a candle that has tons of sell liquidity. Like those are all, that's a big buy candle. And that's when you should be selling on buy candles and you should be buying on sell candles. So

So if you look at the waterfall event, we got in on that third red candle. We bought a little bit. And then we bought a little bit more on the fourth candle. And then waited, and the bounce happened. And look at the exits of those two positions on green candles at the tops of the body, both in profit. So...

Just being able to have the edge of the trigger event happening quicker than you can put your finger on the mouse and type in the trade limit price and hit execute, just that alone works.

We think it's such a powerful notion that retail needs to see that we've given away this software for free. If you go to our website, you can download the software. You can use it up to $10,000 of trading capital every year. And you can do that for as long as you want at absolutely zero cost. And we think it's such a compelling tool that gives,

gets you to see behind kind of the technological curtain of what high frequency trading is, why it makes up 70 plus percent of the volume of every market on the earth now, because it executes quicker with less indecision and with no emotion. And it's able to monitor the conditions of the market 24 seven,

having that discipline and that level of focus. No human being can do that. And when you're dealing with crypto markets in particular, it becomes infinitely harder because the nature of the market is 24-7, 365. And that's no way to live. So taking advantage of the volatility in a market that

only presents the volatility when you're asleep in most cases. Without the automated tools, you cannot harvest that volatility. You can't take advantage of it. So what happens here, I guess this strategy works best when the market is volatile because you're going to get these great peaks and troughs to buy and sell at every time. And

the price action we've seen in the last two or three weeks has been incredible for it. And clearly, as we've seen in the charts, the SACO has done well. How does this perform when you have continuously rallying market? How does it perform when you have a market that continuously sells off a bear market? And how would you make any adjustments to these strategies? And by the way, the 2.5%, 2.1% is something that I showed

you guys which is a recipe that you guys stock recipe that you guys have but all those percentages are alterable so you can change them to whatever you want and you can even make it as big as like 50 and 10 and you know minus 50 plus 10 on bigger size if you wanted to think about trading over like a cycle if you like and all that kind of stuff but how did it perform in different types of

momentum markets and how would you change the recipe or strategy, if you like, to adjust to those? So if you're chasing a bull market run and you're wanting to acquire positions all the way up, you're just going to lower the threshold of percentage move that's needed. So you're going to have a lot more days that trigger that event, which is going to accumulate more Bitcoin for you. You can create the bias in whatever direction you'd like the bias.

You can create a bias that trades one for one and every entry is correlated with a corresponding exit over whatever time period. And that would be something that would maximize the cash create opportunity within a very sideways market, right? Then if it's a bull run and I have a large position and I want to accumulate more through the bull, I can set the bias on the buy side much higher than the sell side.

so that the sell-side triggers don't happen as often. Like maybe I want to sell during a bull run only on an up 15% day. Well, I mean, that's a great day to sell a little bit, but that's not going to happen every day, right? That's going to...

keep me holding more Bitcoin longer, which in a bull run is what you want to do, right? And then inversely, if it's a bear market and you want to offload Bitcoin, you just change it to where your sell side is the aggressive sell side. So not only can I say, okay, let's say it's a bear market because we've reached the peak. We're at $250,000 Bitcoin price. We've all accumulated a bunch and now it's time to get some cash back.

to take some cash off for the pullback? Well, you just set your sell bias to, you know, every day that it moves down by 1%, you're selling a little bit.

Every day it moves down by 1.5%, 2%, 3%, whatever. And then you can also set, okay, well, when it's down 1%, sell X number of dollars. So let's say I want to really exit cash quickly because we've reached the blow-off top and I'm wanting to get out quick. Well, I'm going to say, okay, every time Bitcoin's up by more than 1% in a day,

sell 10 grand of Bitcoin. And every time it's down by 6% in a day, buy $50 worth of Bitcoin. Well, that's going to deplete my Bitcoin stack pretty quickly, right? I'm selling $50 for every 10 grand I buy. And I've created an instance that's going to trigger a 10,000 sell quite frequently, right? Because the volatility of Bitcoin is something that

really hasn't changed since its inception. You just have to continue to zoom out to get perspective of what the volatility looked like overall. But in each individual cycle, we've seen pullbacks of 30 plus percent. We've seen pullbacks of 50 plus percent. The volatility, in my opinion, based upon the fixed denominator of Bitcoin is here to stay because as inflation and real world dollars continue to be printed,

The price of Bitcoin has to be adjusted to that. And it's not a live one to one adjustment. There's lots of delays in getting that money supply to the hands of people that ultimately buy Bitcoin. Right. And so so three really important points of you guys have covered a lot of the technicalities. And so, you know, some 50,000 feet type stuff.

So, 1st, again, this is free if you want to use this, this is free. This remarkable institutional technology is free. Go download it and use it. It's free. 2, we're talking about because we brought up volatility versus non volatility and how do you benefit from those?

By the way, you can keep your volatility-focused algo inside the algo. So the arbitrage strategy is still running. You can set up another version of the algo right behind it or on top of it or underneath it that is the non-volatility version of the algo, and they're both running at the same time. You can have four different versions of that stuff with different percentages in different hard dollar amounts.

all running at the same time inside of the algo in other words this institutional level tool is not just doing one thing it can do four things five things three things eight things all at the same time and then third um again to to tillman's point

The ability to adjust immediately when you get a blow off top, say, you know, at some point we blow off to one hundred and twenty five hundred thirty K in the next three months. And you're the arbitrage strategy is still doing what it's doing. You've acquired a certain amount of Bitcoin and now it's it's worth way more because we're up 50 percent, let's call it.

And then you have another low volatility strategy running at the same time. But now you want to run a little bit of a sell side strategy. Again, it's not difficult to do. It's quick, click, click, click. And it's all happening for you while you're doing something else. While you're sleeping, while you're eating at a restaurant, while you're playing with your kids, while you're flying to vacation.

if you move to Mars with Elon Musk for a year, it's still going to do what it's set up to do. Well, and let's talk about just the, let's talk about the laws of nature. When you have an asset or anything that's volatile,

The only way to hedge against that volatility and to master it is through spreading out your entry points. The larger a capital amount at a single point in time, the more risk you have in your entry, period, the end. There's no arguing that. Everyone has to agree upon it. It's taught in every university in the world. Diversification across timeframes is

your risk of volatility. So when you are having a, what looks to be a blow off top event, it's not the most prudent thing. It's the most risky thing to emotionally go, oh crap, where

We're having a blow up event. Let me sell 100% of my Bitcoin stack and try to time that. That's exactly when the price will reverse against you. And you will be wondering if you have spyware on your computer and the market has the vendetta against you and why the world hates you because it will feel that way. And that's what the market's designed to do, to make you emotionally move and

So the way you respond to that is by moving in smaller steps, taking a more diversified outlook and saying, okay, if I'm going to exit my position, I'm going to exit over 15, 20 different cells.

And that's going to smooth your curve out. And so if you are wrong and the market is in a continuation pattern and continues to go up, maybe you've sold 25% of your position, but you're still in 75 and you weren't wrong. And let's say the market continues to go down. You're going to have a systematic dollar cost average increase.

exit price that is a cumulative event over the course of multiple exits versus this one-time event that you're guessing is the right time for it to happen. Anytime you're guessing or anytime you're picking one point to move 100% of your position in or out,

you are incurring risk. And so by definition, having a piece of automation that's systematically looking for opportunities to take you out in smaller chunks, you're going to have a better price entry and exit, or i.e., you're going to remove some of the risk of the volatility in getting in and out of your positions. So volatility has to be just managed. It's an opportunity, but it definitely has to be managed because it can cut both ways.

So if I wanted to, I'm quite a degenerate risk-taking trader. If I wanted to create like a degen version of this, is there a world where I can set it? So let's say I put in my starting capital and let's say I buy whatever, a 5% backup or 2.5% backup.

can I set the amount that I would buy in that backup to be the entirety of my starting capital? So let's say, yeah, okay. I've started with 10 K if it falls two and a half percent, I'm going to buy 10 K and I guess we just wait until it gets back up to sell it. But, um,

Yeah, you can be as aggressive as you want. And let's say you put in the most aggressive settings you could come up with and you had 10K in there. Well, when it reaches, you know, when you start trading beyond the 10K, you just are going to get trade rejection notices. No harm, no foul. It doesn't cost you anything. It's not the end of the world, but those trades won't go through because you don't have the capital to trade them. Yeah, I might do that. Maybe I won't go...

all in on the 2.5%. But maybe I'll give myself like

four or five strikes and then see what happens. I regard somebody that we've talked to a multitude of times as Jeff Park over at Bitwise. Are you familiar with him at all? I'm familiar with Bitwise, but yeah, not so much. He's a great follow. He's DGT10011 on Twitter.

But he's one of the smartest guys in the space that I've ever come across. And he put out a tweet. Every tweet he puts out, I have to go run through Grok or some AI to figure out really what he's saying. But he put something out yesterday. It says, if you take the root vega approach to normalizing BTC volatility,

the rough multiplier for duration is 9x on the conservative end and 25x on the aggressive end. So empirically true that one year in crypto is 10 years in real life. And so the point he's making, and I did run it through Grok and I got the explanation. The point he's making is that Bitcoin is nine times more volatile on the low side

than the equity market and 25 times more volatile on the high side on any given year. And that opportunity of volatility is too big to ignore. That's why people are at a very sophisticated level looking at adding Bitcoin to their balance sheet as this force multiplier that has very limited downside risk because if

if you only have 5% of your available cash sitting in Bitcoin, and even if it drops by 50%, you're down 2.5%. Well, 2.5% is a rounding error in the annual increase or reduction in inflation rate. So you can get a lot of bang for your buck for putting a little bit of money to work. But

When I ran through Jeff's tweet into ChatGPT and said, so what's the best strategy to take advantage of this volatility?

And it spit out literally the exact definition of how we've built this strategy, the automated tool that we have. It's a intelligent DCA. That's the only tried and true method for removing the risk of volatility, but also capturing the opportunity of volatility at the same time. So I was pleasantly surprised. And again, Jeff, he's a great follow if you don't follow him.

Well, just a reminder, and I don't think you saw it at the beginning of the show, you know, bitwise is the sponsor of this show. And to some degree, you know, a bunch of real vision stuff. So so they're they're fans and real vision has a great relationship with them. And and, you know.

Jeff come from the exotic derivatives department at Morgan Stanley, which, you know, in and of itself, you have to have some, you know, you kind of have to dream in algorithms and dream in math to be able to work and be successful in that type of department. Ovi knows based on his time at Barclays. So it is a...

but for the common guy, right? The common guy whose job it is not to sit at four screens for nine to 10 hours a day. And that's just traditional markets, by the way. Crypto is all the time on no matter what. In fact, I think the last buy that the ARB strategy did was like at, you know, I don't know. It was in the morning or early morning or late at night.

And four out of the last five trades were overnight. Well, Sunday night's been a huge night of volatility in Bitcoin for the last like six, eight weeks. Huge night. It's the only time that the market's really moved. An example of why having a plan, right? And this strategy gives you a clear plan.

You know, we were talking to a customer of ours a couple of days ago, and he hadn't set up the whole thing yet, and he was working on it. But he admitted to us that a couple of days ago, he panicked sold 14 Bitcoin at 79K.

OK, just boom, panic sold 79K, thought it was going lower. Just, you know, I can't I can't I can't have it go any lower. I got a couple of things that I got to do. Panic sold 14, 14 Bitcoin at 79K.

This tool really helps you avoid mistakes like that. Yeah, it gets you out of the way, which is half the battle in trading, in my opinion, is removing your emotional responses. Seize you from yourself, basically. Exactly. Make it a little harder to act recklessly. One thing I wanted to bring up during the call today, which was an interesting thing

concept that I'd never thought of before. And I started running it past people and posted about it on Twitter, and it got quite the response, which is a lot of publicly traded companies are looking at Bitcoin, right? We've got 70 plus publicly traded companies

that have adopted Bitcoin as a reserve strategy on their balance sheet. And then you have products like Bitwise who are creating ETFs that are specific to companies who have what they consider to be the Bitcoin standard as the core philosophy, a thousand plus Bitcoin on Bitcoin.

on their balance sheet. And so you're looking at more and more companies are wondering, how does this work with my business and how can I incorporate it? And does it have value to incorporate it? And so this train of thought started to appear for me and I started to chase the proverbial rabbit and it led to some interesting things. So first of all, most small businesses are

If they're successful over time, they accumulate cash. And most small businesses are so busy looking at their business, plumbing companies, construction companies, they don't have time to create sophisticated investment strategies. And so most of them will lump a lot of their cash into CDs or what they consider to be somewhat liquid yield returning assets.

So I started thinking about, you know, that size of a company, how would I incorporate if I had that type of a company, how would I incorporate Bitcoin into my overarching strategy? And it started with this central premise of risk, okay? I love measuring risk and I love to expose risk that I'm not aware of or that other people aren't aware of. And so there's this risk that we all incur by depositing money in banks, right?

The risk is, is that the bank goes out of business and banks are not traditionally very forthright as it pertains to telling us when they're going to go out of business. That's why the run on the bank happens because they hold their water as long as they can. And then it finally bursts and kind of you're stuck in the line of people out on the curb.

And so I did some research in finding, okay, what's the historical rate of bank failures? And I think it's shockingly high, to be honest with you. Since 2020, excuse me, 2000 to 2025, so 25 years, there's been 569 bank failures in the

So, greater than 10% of the banks that have started in the last 25 years have failed in that same time period. That to me is a shockingly high number.

Then you start to dig a little deeper and you go, okay, how many banks are at risk of failing now? Well, according to the stats, 67 large banks are on the risk list now because they have over leveraged themselves in the commercial real estate space. And the interest rate increase has created pressure on their balance sheet.

And so you start to look at this over it, and then you start saying, well, the big banks don't fail. No. In 2023, a top 10 bank failed. In 2024, a top 10 bank failed. So no one's immune to the risk of your bank going out of business. I don't care even if it's kind of the top 10 banks. So if you take that as a consideration and you have cash over $250,000 in that bank,

What's the chance? Which one's a lower probability that Bitcoin goes to zero or that your bank goes out of business? Much, much more probable that Bitcoin does not have a 10 plus percent chance of going to zero. I just I can tell you the smartest people in the world will agree upon that. And so there's this notion that I have that, you know, if you can't find an asset that has a a

a better risk-reward ratio, and you don't need the cash for operations, but you want it in a highly liquid form, that scraping the excess of your cash reserves that are sitting in FDIC-insured bank accounts

above the 250,000 mark and earmarking that to be DCA or intelligently purchased into Bitcoin would be a de-risking event. You're taking money that can go to zero

And you're removing it from that chance that it goes to zero and putting it at a higher percentage. And that's reducing overall risk in my estimation. So something to think about. It's food for thought. It's a very interesting notion that I don't think a lot of people pay attention to. But I would venture to guess that a lot of people have more than $250,000 in cash in

in their business account that's sitting there and, and, you know, needing to be somewhat liquid for emergency purposes, but also pretty much doing nothing for the business and has very little potential to, to help the business from a yield perspective and, or from a growth perspective. So. Interesting idea. Okay. I think it makes sense. I'm curious to see what that landscape looks like in three years time. If we do actually see small businesses and, and,

small people just have it. Even if it's like a 1% allocation to it. Exactly. That can be a meaningful return given the power of it means you often see in crypto. Yeah.

Well, emergency funds are commonly used for households, right? And what do we consider emergency fund? Something that we keep highly liquid that's available when the world hits the fan, you know, when everything goes bad. And I think if you look from a business perspective, and especially Silicon Bank,

failure, how many businesses did not have money or could access money to continue business operations? How many businesses sat there trying to figure out how they were going to make payroll? Well, Bitcoin could be a hell of an instrument for an emergency fund event for a business.

because no one can keep you from accessing it. You can immediately create liquidity out of it to make payroll and do the functioning things of the business. And it provides all of those safety nets, right?

in a way that no other instrument that I can think of provides. So it could be a trend. I think it will be. I think Bitcoin has some unique qualities to it from a publicly traded company perspective. Jeff touched on this on one of our podcasts, which is it really puts the fear of God in short sellers. And so it's a natural hedge against people shorting your public

And if you look at Tesla, when they added Bitcoin, their shorts went way, way down. But there's lots of examples of that. But I think for private enterprise and for private companies, having an asset, as long as you don't need the cash in a four-year cycle period, having an asset that has that growth potential is

when margins are getting squeezed, profit margins are getting squeezed, could be a competitive advantage that allows you to take market share from your competition. Like that could be the very differentiator that allows you to make the company that you want to make as big as it can be. Yeah, that's going to be super interesting to watch. I think we'll see more and more of it. And obviously Tesla's an example at like a different level of scale. But even on a personal level as well, it's like, you know,

When prices drop like this and you're just sitting on cash, is it a bigger risk for me to just stay in a lot of cash than it is to have Bitcoin? Now, Bitcoin obviously has... You have your own safety risk, so don't lose my seed phrase, make sure I have it saved, self-custody and all that kind of stuff. And it's a separate thing. But sometimes I feel like, why bother...

Obviously, you need to pay for your living expenses and cash, but why bother having savings, so to speak, if you want it over a multi-year period? But with that, I think we better wrap it up as we're a little bit over time. If you guys want to check out the Arch platform that we spoke about today, make sure you head over to realvision.com forward slash Arch. You'll be able to see all the details there. We should have a URL right at the bottom of the screen here as well for you guys to check out.

Feel free to drop us your comments on if you've been using it, how you found it, if you've been profitable, if not been profitable. We're happy to... I'm curious to hear all the feedback. If you have a good recipe that works out for you during the week, let us know. I'm curious to try it out. I'm definitely going to spend more time...

setting this up for myself because I feel like I've missed out on a lot of trading because of being busy and other stuff. And maybe this is a way to do it programmatically. So please, please, please do check it out. We will be back at the usual time again next week, 1130 a.m. Eastern time. I believe it's still 3.30 p.m. Greenwich Mean Time next week and the week after until our clocks change. But thanks everyone for listening. Hope everyone has a great weekend and we will see you next week.

If you like this episode, I'd love for you to head over to realvision.com forward slash join for a free membership. Start your journey today to unfuck your future. Just one click away.