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Trump's Impact on Europe & the Dollar | Macro Monday ft. Andreas Steno Larsen & Mikkel Rosenvold

2025/2/24

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

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Andreas Steno Larsen

Mikkel Rosenvold

Raoul Pal

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Raoul Pal: 我想谈谈我的朋友们在Bitwise，为什么他们是最好的加密资产管理公司。他们有超过20种产品，100多名员工，管理着超过100亿美元的客户资产。他们还通过捐赠部分利润回馈开源开发者，并率先公布了其比特币ETF钱包地址。 Raoul Pal: 我鼓励大家对本播客进行五星评价。 Andreas Steno Larsen: 上周我主要关注美元兑日元走势，我认为即将出现转折点。美国联邦政府裁员将对2月、3月和4月的就业数据产生重大影响，预计裁员人数将达到30万到40万，加上相关承包商的裁员，实际影响人数可能高达100万。这将对经济和美联储的决策产生负面影响，并可能导致美元走弱。欧元区公共支出增加与美国形成对比。 Andreas Steno Larsen: 我对欧洲的未来持乐观态度，认为欧洲将增加基础设施投资，欧洲股市相对于美国股市表现良好。特朗普的强硬谈判策略可能会导致关税下降，最终有利于全球贸易。 Andreas Steno Larsen: 日本央行可能提前加息，这将导致日元升值。日本央行加息不太可能引发“黑天鹅”事件。 Andreas Steno Larsen: 由于科技进步和财富集中，将美国股市总值与GDP进行比较来判断是否存在泡沫是不合理的。目前全球经济正在加速增长，不太可能出现经济衰退。即使经济衰退来临，货币政策也会相应调整。 Mikkel Rosenvold: Elon Musk发送的裁员邮件简洁而具有被动攻击性。德国大选结果与民调结果相符，主要政党将致力于增加公共支出，德国可能取消“债务刹车”机制，从而增加政府支出。取消“债务刹车”机制将导致德国政府支出大幅增加，主要用于国防和能源领域。 Mikkel Rosenvold: 马克龙和阿姆鲁访美，寻求与特朗普政府合作，这表明欧洲正在积极应对地缘政治变化。欧洲领导人正在积极主动地与特朗普政府进行合作，这预示着欧洲领导层正在形成。乌克兰与美国达成的矿产协议，虽然让乌克兰做出让步，但也可能吸引美国投资，从而稳定局势。 Mikkel Rosenvold: 日本经济惊喜指数显示，日本经济表现良好，这与市场预期相反。美元预计将走弱，这与年初的市场预期相反。长期预测经济衰退是不明智的，因为错过经济增长机会的代价很高。英伟达的财报将对市场情绪产生重大影响。 Mikkel Rosenvold: 欧盟不太可能实现完全的联邦化，但会在某些领域加强合作。将股市总值与GDP进行比较来预测经济衰退是不合理的。

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Shownotes Transcript

🔥 Check out Bitwise at https://bitwiseinvestments.com and let them know that Real Vision mentioned them. Welcome back to Macro Monday. Today's topic: Trump's Impact on Europe & the Dollar

Andreas Steno Larsen, founder and CEO of Steno Research, is back with his co-host Mikkel Rosenvold, the firm’s partner and head of geopolitics, to discuss the latest global macro trends and news. They discuss the evolving fiscal and geopolitical landscape in Europe, shifts in the U.S. dollar, Nvidia earnings expectations, Japanese rate hikes, and much more.

📣 This episode is brought to you by Bitwise Asset Management. Bitwise has been all-in on crypto since 2017 and has more than 20 crypto-based products to help investors get the access they need. Bitwise manages the world’s largest crypto index fund, one of the top Bitcoin ETFs, and one of the largest institutional Ethereum staking solutions. Bitwise has over $10 billion in assets under management and over 100 people in the US and Europe to help manage everything from ETFs to private alpha strategies to SMAs for large investors.

👉 Check out Bitwise at https://bitwiseinvestments.com and let them know that Real Vision mentioned them. Carefully consider the extreme risks associated with crypto before investing.

Timestamps:

00:00 – Introduction & Welcome

00:01:30 – Weekly Recap & Trading Banter

00:03:15 – Federal Layoffs & Economic Impact

00:05:10 – German Elections & Fiscal Reforms

00:09:46 – Europe-US Diplomatic Moves & Trade Talks

00:11:09 – US–Ukraine Mineral Deal Controversy

00:12:30 – Bullish Europe & Market Dynamics

00:15:35 – Japan’s Monetary Policy & Economic Surprises

00:18:23 – Dollar Trends & Global Currency Shifts

00:22:46 – EU Federalism & Budget Collaboration

00:25:29 – Upcoming Reports: Nvidia & GDP Insights