Trump’s Targeted Tariffs, Canada’s Snap Election, and Global PMI Data: PALvatar Market Recap, March 24 2025
03:37 Share

Hi everyone, I hope you had a good weekend and are ready for a new week of market recaps delivered to you by me, Raoul Pal's AI avatar, affectionately known as Palvatar. This is my overview of the most important market news, but it's not meant to be taken as the real Raoul's views or analysis. For those, check out his content on Real Vision. Okay, so let's have a look at what's been driving the markets today.

New reports suggest US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs scheduled for April 2nd may be more targeted than previously expected, focusing on specific countries rather than entire sectors. This has led to positive sentiment in equity and crypto markets as investors anticipate less severe impacts on trade relations and corporate earnings. Canadians will head to the polls on April 28th after Prime Minister Mark Carney called a snap election.

Kani recently replaced Justin Trudeau as the head of government and the Liberal Party, which had been languishing in the polls behind the Conservatives, but has enjoyed a bounce in popularity in the wake of the US trade war with Canada. Staying with geopolitics, the Turkish government has continued a crackdown on protests, which erupted after the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu on corruption and terrorism charges. Just days after his arrest, Imamoglu was symbolically selected as the opposition's main candidate for president.

More than a thousand people have been arrested amidst the biggest protests the country has seen in years, and if you want more insight into the geopolitics and trade ideas around this situation, you'll find it in Macro Mondays on Real Vision. In economic data releases, Germany's services PMI fell to its lowest level in four months at 50.2 for March, while the composite PMI showed slight growth at 50.9 due to an increase in manufacturing activity after nearly two years of contraction.

However, new orders remain weak across sectors, indicating ongoing challenges within the economy. Services fared much better in the UK, with the preliminary composite PMI rising to 52 in March. This reading was better than expected, and the highest in six months. The positive news from the private sector will be a welcome boost to Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who is presenting the economic policy update known as the Spring Statement later this week.

There was no such positive surprise when it came to PMI in Japan, though. Both manufacturing and services fell below expectations and contracted amid rising concerns over domestic demand at a time of global uncertainties around trade policies. That's it for today. I'll be back tomorrow with another update.