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cover of episode US GDP Surprise, Japan’s Rate Hold, and PCE Signals: PALvatar Market Recap, May 1 2025

US GDP Surprise, Japan’s Rate Hold, and PCE Signals: PALvatar Market Recap, May 1 2025

2025/5/1
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Real Vision: Finance & Investing

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Palvatar: 我是Raoul Pal的AI化身Palvatar,今天将为您带来最新的市场新闻。日本央行维持利率在0.5%左右不变,但由于美国关税对全球需求的影响,下调了经济增长预期。日本经济正在温和复苏,但贸易政策的不确定性仍然很高,可能会影响未来的货币政策决策。 美国方面,第一季度GDP意外收缩0.3%,这与之前的温和增长预期形成强烈反差。ADP的就业数据也弱于预期。进口激增导致美国经济增长数据下降,因为制造商试图抢在关税生效前囤货。消费者也采取了同样的做法,3月份消费者支出增长。与此同时,关键的通胀指标有所下降,这在关税预计将普遍推高物价之前,提供了一定的喘息空间。 3月份的个人消费支出价格指数(PCE)与前一个月持平,这是近一年来的首次,表明通胀有所缓解。核心PCE(不包括食品和能源等波动性价格)也保持不变。按年计算,核心PCE为2.6%。这些数据强化了美联储降息的理由,尽管关税可能会再次推高通胀的担忧依然存在。 市场情绪谨慎乐观,因为有报道称北京方面在与华盛顿的贸易谈判中立场有所软化,而关税已经开始对中国的经济数据造成影响。大型科技公司强劲的盈利业绩进一步增强了这种乐观情绪,微软取得了有史以来最好的季度业绩,Meta也超过了华尔街的预期,推动了两家公司的股价上涨。亚马逊和苹果将在今天晚些时候公布财报。

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⬜ Welcome to Palvatar Market Recap, your go-to daily briefing on the latest market movements, global macro shifts, and crypto trends—powered by Raoul Pal’s AI avatar, Palvatar.

⬜ In today’s update, Palvatar breaks down Japan’s rate decision and downgraded growth outlook, a shock contraction in US GDP, and the surprising resilience in consumer spending. Inflation data showed no monthly change in the Fed’s preferred PCE metric, strengthening the case for rate cuts. Meanwhile, positive signals from China-US trade talks and strong Mag-7 earnings—especially Microsoft and Meta—are lifting market sentiment. Gold dipped slightly as the market digests mixed signals.

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🔹 Who should listen? Traders, investors, and macro enthusiasts looking for real-time market intelligence.

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