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cover of episode 时事经纬(2025年1月3日) 北京宣布将28家美企纳入出口管控名单,部分企业已因对台军售遭到中方制裁;华盛顿考虑制定新规,限制或禁止中国产无人机进入美国; 从禁运矿产到调查美企,2025年美中科技贸易战场,中国还有哪些底牌。 - 1月 03日,2025年

时事经纬(2025年1月3日) 北京宣布将28家美企纳入出口管控名单,部分企业已因对台军售遭到中方制裁;华盛顿考虑制定新规,限制或禁止中国产无人机进入美国; 从禁运矿产到调查美企,2025年美中科技贸易战场,中国还有哪些底牌。 - 1月 03日,2025年

2025/1/2
logo of podcast 时事经纬 - 美国之音

时事经纬 - 美国之音

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People
亚当斯
时事评论员
王一如
许波
Topics
许波:北京宣布将28家美国企业纳入出口管控名单,部分企业因对台军售受制裁。 王一如:中国政府对28家美国企业实施出口管控,禁止出口军民两用物项;美国政府制裁中国企业,禁止出口先进半导体芯片等技术;中国限制出口稀土等关键矿产,并对美国军工企业实施制裁;美国商务部考虑限制中国产无人机进入美国。 卢比·斯坎伦(间接引用):中国在芯片技术领域的反制手段有限,因为其无法在本土生产先进芯片。中国可能采取提高关税、延迟进口等措施反制美国。 许宁(通过王一如播报):中国拥有丰富的稀土资源,可以作为反制手段,但其在全球稀土市场的主导地位正在下降;中国对美国企业施压,例如对英伟达进行反垄断调查;人民币贬值和抛售美国国债是中国的经济反制手段,但存在风险;中国加大对半导体产业的投资,以减少对美国技术的依赖,预计在五年内摆脱对美国高端芯片技术的依赖。 时事评论员:2025年习近平政权面临三大挑战:外交危机(中美对立)、经济危机(房地产泡沫、银行坏账、地方政府债务)、政治危机(权力斗争、党内向心力下降)。中美关系恶化将对中国造成巨大压力;中国经济问题严重,难以恢复;习近平的权力斗争和经济问题可能导致共产党政权的向心力下降。 亚当斯:国家建筑博物馆推出新展览“看得见的密室”,展出2500多件文物,展示了美国建筑和工程的历史。 南希·贝特曼(间接引用):国家建筑博物馆“看得见的密室”展览展出了2500多件文物,展示了美国建筑和工程的历史。 陈岩(间接引用):2025年中国面临的困难是就业、关税和经济下行压力;中国正在将经济增长置于金融风险之上,政策发生转变。 宋国成(间接引用):中国面临多种危机,2025年中共可能衰败。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did China impose export controls on 28 U.S. companies?

China imposed export controls on 28 U.S. companies as part of its ongoing trade and tech war with the U.S. Some of these companies were already sanctioned for arms sales to Taiwan. The measures prohibit the export of dual-use items to these firms.

What key materials has China restricted in response to U.S. tech sanctions?

China has restricted the export of rare earths and critical minerals, which are essential for manufacturing high-end chips and advanced weapons. This move is part of Beijing's retaliatory measures against U.S. tech sanctions.

What is the U.S. considering regarding Chinese-made drones?

The U.S. is considering new rules to restrict or ban Chinese-made drones from entering the country, citing national security concerns. The U.S. fears that these drones could be remotely accessed or controlled by adversaries, potentially leaking sensitive data.

What role does rare earth play in China's countermeasures against the U.S.?

Rare earths are a significant part of China's countermeasures, as it controls 68% of global reserves and over 90% of global production. China has used its dominance in rare earths to impose export bans on the U.S., aiming to leverage its position in the tech trade war.

How has the U.S. reduced its reliance on Chinese rare earths?

The U.S. has reduced its reliance on Chinese rare earths by increasing imports from Canada and Germany. Additionally, domestic production and investments in alternative sources have decreased China's share of U.S. rare earth imports from 75% in 2023 to 33.9% in 2025.

What are China's potential economic countermeasures against the U.S.?

China's potential countermeasures include devaluing the yuan, selling U.S. Treasury bonds, and imposing antitrust investigations on U.S. tech firms like Nvidia. Additionally, China could delay imports of U.S. goods or create barriers for U.S. companies operating in China.

What is China's strategy to reduce reliance on U.S. semiconductor technology?

China is investing heavily in its semiconductor industry, with plans to raise over 300 billion yuan to support development. Analysts predict that China could become self-reliant in advanced chip technology within five years, reducing its dependence on U.S. exports.

What are the potential risks for China in the 2025 U.S.-China tech trade war?

China faces risks such as reduced foreign investment, economic slowdown due to the real estate crisis, and the potential for U.S. tariffs to further strain its economy. Additionally, retaliatory measures against U.S. companies could backfire, leading to decreased foreign business activity in China.

Chapters
中国将28家美国企业纳入出口管控名单,禁止出口军民两用物项;美国考虑限制或禁止中国产无人机入境。节目分析了中国可能的反制措施,包括限制稀土出口、对美企施压、人民币贬值和抛售美国国债,以及加大对半导体产业的投资。
  • 中国将28家美国企业列入出口管控名单,禁止出口军民两用物项
  • 美国考虑限制或禁止中国产无人机入境
  • 中国可能的反制措施包括限制稀土出口,对美企施压,人民币贬值和抛售美国国债,以及加大对半导体产业的投资

Shownotes Transcript

中国政府星期四(1月2日)宣布,将对28家美国企业实施出口管控措施,禁止向这些企业出口军民两用物项。这是北京当局在与美国政府进行的贸易战和科技战中采取的一项最新举措。 在美国对中国技术制裁的压力下,中国近期展开了系列报复行动,包括切断稀土供应、惩罚在中国开展业务的美国公司等。美国新政府上任后,是否会进一步加强对中国的技术限制?2025年的美中贸易和科技战场,北京还可能会打出哪些底牌?