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cover of episode The Future of the Fed: Austan Goolsbee & Krishna Guha 4/21/25

The Future of the Fed: Austan Goolsbee & Krishna Guha 4/21/25

2025/4/21
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Austan Goolsbee
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Krishna Guha
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Krishna Guha: 我认为，总统解雇美联储主席的可能性虽然不大，但并非完全不可能，这会对市场构成严重风险。市场已经清晰地表达了对总统可能试图罢免美联储主席的不满，这损害了对美国经济政策的信心。美联储的独立性至关重要，它对控制通胀预期和最终降息至关重要。试图罢免美联储主席会引发市场剧烈反应，导致收益率上升、美元贬值和股市抛售。我认为，总统应该考虑如何让下一任美联储主席成功，这也有利于政府自身。在极度不确定性下，最好由独立的专家团队而非在政治压力下做出决策。为了赢得市场信任，最好提名拥有强硬鹰派资历的人选，而不是鸽派人选。为了保持经济稳定，最好让鲍威尔继续担任美联储主席到任期结束。 Austan Goolsbee: 当前的通胀预期存在短期上升和长期稳定的矛盾，需要谨慎处理。美联储应该保持稳定，关注长期经济趋势，而非仓促采取行动。关税只是影响经济的一个因素，需要综合考虑各种因素。美国经济主要依赖国内市场，关税对宏观经济的影响可能有限。美联储的独立性至关重要，这是经济稳定的关键。美联储应该专注于其法定职责，即稳定物价和最大化就业。当前更应关注经济放缓的风险，而非通货膨胀。如果通货膨胀和失业同时恶化，则需要评估其持续时间和程度。在当前不确定性下，美联储应保持谨慎，避免仓促行动。振兴制造业是一个长期目标，取决于国际贸易谈判的结果。关税并非总是能促进国内生产，反而可能损害客户利益。我不愿对提前提名美联储主席的政治策略进行分析，我专注于履行美联储的职责。美联储主席在FOMC会议中的意见举足轻重。美联储的独立性对于美元和债券市场的长期稳定至关重要。美联储的独立性对于控制长期通胀预期至关重要。美联储有时需要采取艰难的措施来维护经济稳定。未来12到18个月，利率可能会低于当前水平。

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The Squawk Pod team reflects on the life and death of Pope Francis, highlighting his impact on the business community and his focus on humility and social justice. Andrew Ross Sorkin shares personal anecdotes from an interview he conducted with the Pope before the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Pope Francis died at age 88.
  • He was the first Latin American Pope and the first Jesuit Pope.
  • He emphasized humility and concern for the poor.
  • He was known for his critiques of capitalism and climate change.
  • Many business leaders visited him to discuss ESG and inclusive capitalism.

Shownotes Transcript

Pope Francis, the Argentine Jesuit and Roman Catholic pontiff, has died at age 88. Joe Kernen, Becky Quick, and Andrew Ross Sorkin reflect on his impact on the business community, and Andrew recalls his interview with the Pope just before the Covid-19 pandemic. President Donald Trump intensified his criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell), calling him a “major loser” and warning of a potential economic slowdown if interest rates are not lowered immediately. Krishna Guha, Evercore ISI vice chairman, weighs in on the possibility of Powell’s removal, the independence of the central bank, and the potential market implications. Then, CNBC’s Steve Liesman and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee discuss the state of the economy, the Fed’s inflation strategy, and the impact of the Trump administration’s tariff policy on the economy.

 

Krishna Guha - 16:58

Austan Goolsbee - 27:12

 

In this episode:

Austan Goolsbee, @Austan_Goolsbee)

Steve Liesman, @steveliesman)

Becky Quick, @BeckyQuick)

Joe Kernen, @JoeSquawk)

Andrew Ross Sorkin, @andrewrsorkin)

Cameron Costa, @CameronCostaNY)