$100K Bitcoin: What's Next? w/ Travis Kling
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I guess you can, in a way, how to boil IT down to left curve, right curve, middle curve, kind of mean that a meaningful portion of market participants are you basically don't understand and get fool by. There are a number of X, R, P holders in people that caused the Price to move up in X R P, which is plenty licquet. This is not some fifty million dollar cap check on.

This is billions of dollars of volume that move this. Nk, and they bought IT because they were like, this is a one dollar. Bitcoin used to be a one dollar, and bitcoin is now one hundred thousand dollars.

So don't tell me the X, R, P. Cannot go to a thousand dollars. Don't tell me that you know exactly what exactly the thing is that makes this market so weird.

Maybe people that are a little more right curve realized how many people that are market participants that are like that. And then they're like what i'm to trail that ay. And there's a lot of examples like that.

We're like the right curve thing is to like mic, the left curve thing and there's that is like a very um a heavily present factor to cyp to investing, which is just the sort of strange eo drives a lot of a me point stuff, right? Like it's like a right b is like left. Her loves this year.

Very G M to you all out there uh, with recording on thursday is coming up the next day, but bitcoin has finally crossed. K or one of one. It's a weird mix of euphoria and just like lack of belief, you know we've been stradling one hundred for a while and we just broke through um travis, you've seen a lot. I know you've you've been saying that this is that and you wrote this was the best news month last month uh for bitcoin in ever or like crypt l ever. How how are you seeing those situation?

To paraphrase our incoming president, happy hundred k even to all the haters in the losers.

you're welcome and he said, you're welcome .

to you welcome .

obviously feeling and great um from a crypto perspective, you know but even just put our pumping bags to the side and and you know politics and stuff like that maybe outside of the scope of of this podcast. But i'm also just tremendously helpful for the direction in this country.

And um I think it's not an exaggeration to slack some sort of like civilization society crumbling near miss like cosmic and flocking kind of thing that just happened here. Um and I know maybe some people feel other ways, but I feel very strongly about that. And so that part honestly, I am more excited about even then then pumping bags, I mean mony's money, but I was a super worried about the direction this country. And i'm so excited for a bunch of different reasons about about a trump administration. A lot of reasons .

happened up and to do cyp to crypto too. But yeah, I mean, you you had a great journey, touch on a little but later on you like me to five um you are telling us, you know obviously lot of people thought you are crazy and you look at me now, mom.

Yeah it's been a crazy right. I think today is the seven year anniversary of when I left point seventy two to go to cypher full time. And um this that was like a right at the tail end of the of the seventeen cycle um and IT has just been a strange, strange ride but um you know happy to be here and um the future is bright.

Yeah let's can you can you bring about some charge, Justin? Let's are with the coin and we can get to your a theory um after that.

P T, C.

so this is this is a monthly charter, mean these like waves keep happening, but the the the size of the wave is getting bigger and bigger every time. Do we have any thoughts on where this cycle range gets? two? I mean, before from kind elected, I thought we might get to like one fifteen or so. But given the momentum from the election, if you like, there are so many people that need to get crypt on the property that didn't have IT and they have to get some exposure that I I can see quite a lot higher.

Yeah is definitely not an any device. I'm wrong often, but I think it's it's impossible to consider bitcoin Price targets without having a view on the the constitute gic reserve. And that's not going to be the single biggest factor for trying to call some kind of top to this deal because I think IT just makes such a drastic difference about a Price expectation.

And so trying to wait the likelihood of getting A B S R and thin through the steps like it's like here's up and thinking about IT. It's like currently with Price IT one or three or whatever, what is the likelihood that the market is assigning to a bsr? And over what time for me, what are the steps, the the events, the headlands, the catalysts that IT is from, from where we are right now to the market increasing, it's likelihood of a bsr happening like it's like.

is this you think the market is really kind of pricing this in though? Or is that just, you know, people yeah people are coming in and I do not think .

there's much in here. Um no, I don't think there's much in here. There may be a little bit in here. I think that there is I think the market basically took IT as a given that the united states government will stop selling the seed bitcoin. But I also think that, that wasn't really weigh on Price because I don't I don't think like the current bitcoin Price was like lower than that otherwise would be because the government was going to sell two hundred thousand big liner whatever over a multi year period in the market, was doing some sort of like you know discount in P V minit.

Like what the market does is they see the coins move on, right? And in Price, an exam for a few days or a few weeks and minute over until you see the coins move again, right? So it's like, you know, so it's I don't think we necessary got like A A pop of Price from not in the seized coins because I don't think he was really in near to begin with.

But the B S, R, this is a totally, this is the the, the government tea, wapping, two hundred thousand and the year over five years so right this is the lamas bill. It's been introduced um and I I don't know how to wake the likely od um I I I I does that strike me that IT would be a like first ninety days of the administration kind of thing IT just seems like they have too many other huge priorities. I do think this is the first ninety days thing, executive border that they stopped ed selling the seas bitcoin.

I think that that is the first ninety day thing um getting uh a series of executive executive orders out of the White house plus you know the establishment of the ccr ypo council, getting the crypto s are in place and then probably a series of of settlements and no actual letters from the the c in the CF c and maybe some edicts around uh which of those are agencies? Is you sort of Better delineation those two agencies about whose in charge of what and what that means for visual assets? I think you actually can get that in like the first ninety days because crypto, you know the fair shake pack has been so massive in this in this election and crypt to we now just swing a very real stick in washington with the B.

S. R. I think is sort of dislike further awaiting. And I think IT is very worthwhile if if you're thinking about Price target stuff for bitcoin, I think IT is very worthwhile to think through. And maybe we can talk about this more here, what the steps would look like, the headlines where the Marks starts assigning a higher probability or a lower probability to the bsr?

Yeah I mean, for me, like A, I haven't even been considering the B S R in terms of the Price action, just like supplying demand and the demand is coming and there are some asian wales that are waking up and selling a bit.

I can I ask you guys like a much similar question about how to think of this market. So in every bitcoin cycle so far, we've seen diminishing returns. And like the previous high, the returns to the next higher, slightly lower or substantially lower.

Last cycle, I think you know we went from like sixty eight or so to sixty eight. Do you expect this cycle to have continue diminish returns? Or as all this bullish news, something that could push us out of that and this time is actually different and we don't continue dimittis ing returns every cycle?

Well, we get to the boundaries of the universe right like quilliam and could brilliance or two um well let let's let's show some of these like X R P predictions. But you know I don't look at IT.

if you like cloud out the diminishing returns, right? As we've seen the returns diminish. You're looking at like one twenty five k to one fifty this cycle. Most people I talk to that we have on the show are more bullish than that. And so you know that would imply that like this cycle could be different or we could see increased performance.

I think we should always assume that this time is not different. Um I think we can expect lower downside volatility, but i'm perfect not holding up for like half a million.

But I cho if if you pull up my my try， Justin um every paul who I also respect um thinks that were actually near the very end and he thinks are going to go paraos c for maybe the next couple of months and then that is really going to be over um always always like no one really knows like where we are. Um some people think that the super style started. Some people think it's over. Um but I think for me personally, i'm trying to assume that this time is not different in that way. I kind of protect myself this time I might make of some upside, but i'm really okay with that.

you know. So I says, is a one fifty to five hundred K I M that's quite a large I think I think I think that's pretty safe zone to bed into. Um but do you do agree with the top of the eight inning? I am quite confused where we are in the bitcoin cycle or just in the cycle.

I just put the best just not best of about that, just not new day for stuff with um again, I really like the S B S R. No B S R for me that's two very different Price sockets for me no bsr that feels like one forty to one seventy five fish, something like that um bsr that feels like A A swift move up to two fifty at a minimum. And I would think that you probably have a room, you know, four, fifty years, half of gold.

So if you imagined part part part of this, that is like I struggle with this is that it's so fucking bullish that you sound silly talking about IT. Like it's like the U. S.

Government is gonna sell gold and tea up into a million bitcoin over five years. Like it's like you sound like max kiser like just like not a serious person, right? But there is a bill out there and there are are very, uh, legitimate talks about this thing.

This is not some pipe dream. I'm not saying that definitely happens, but IT is not fair to characterize the thing in the pipe dream. And if you, if that looks like the U.

S. Government is going to start doing this IT makes no sense that other countries would sit, sit back and do nothing. That makes no sense.

So having that is your base case that all the other major and minor countries, whether or not you have a really functional uh, curse of your own or whether you doubt like elsa bitor, you know but it's like regardless of the stature, IT makes zero sense that other countries would do nothing in the united would do that and maybe they would fought, run IT. Maybe they, you know, who knows, but it's having a base case of something that looks like a sovereign during war. If the united states goes forward with this bsr that I believe that is a safe face case.

And then when you trying to sign a Price target to that, IT doesn't start with a one handle, and IT probably does not sort of the two handle. IT is probably three hundred plus. And like I got said, half of gold is four fifty. So like the two fifty to four fifty range in that country for his wild as that sounds, I think matches up with that.

I was going to use my post that all something else but you mention, yeah you mentioned um know the Kelly and he he must be pretty good right now is that is me let's see how my biton is doing and it's like i'm going to bike automobile here is like posting on .

his instagram stories like how much he's up on vital he is like, yes, celebrating yeah yeah. I mean, he deserves the right sailor like Kelly, he did both of the Victory lab. They take the risk and paid off. Yeah.

he's just a chill guy. He's just a chill guy.

On the topic of the strategic preserve, does like any part of that give you pausing that like that seems to me like the second the strategic preserve is announced and we get the intentions like the point of the strategic reserve is sively neuter because IT just gets front run. Like is there any part of you that's like, well, I wish the U. S.

Government would do this in a classified manner. It's A A great wash. It's one of the single it's one of the factors that the fact that makes me think IT IT doesn't happen is that the actual logistics of IT seem not sensible to me in the exact way that you just described.

And so I just like the amount of front, like you know like IT seems a lot easier. For me to imagine them going where we're never gonna sell any bitcoin we sees again and any other bitcoin we see. We're so happy that we get that and we an't sell that either.

And that just feels so much easier to imagine than this. Like we have this bill that introduced, it's gonna like go through committee. Oh, what's out of committee now gets okay.

Now we vote on the floor, oh my god, IT pass the floor Price work. And now we kick IT over to IT IT goes the committed, oh, god committee oh my god, that moons again. Now I want, you know.

it's like that's the top right.

Just it's like, no, I don't know. All every other country is just, you know, there's like a sobber bedding war going on is this things got committee like that. Just I I struggle with the logistic right .

let's let's take a quick look at some the other charts so ah eve has done quite well. It's caught up and I think um there is there is hope, Justin, there is hope here.

Actually we get to get to the best topic. The show right .

or even bags effects eat is close to four thousand right now. Um it's been a ride cycle. We have touched four thousand multiple points.

So you can see all these months here, like there was the etf month and the speculation and like there's been multiple touch points around four thousand, we haven't really broken through last cycle. Is that all time high? Looks like forty eight hundred.

Um so well on the way um I think IT is extremely possible that we can get there. Now we had we have clearly bottom done on eth couple a month ago, right? Like I was just so desperate out there.

And now just the baLance is giving some people life. Would I expect to happen? There is a group that have missed bitcoin, especially I can trade file like they just do like OK.

I missed IT. It's hundred k, it's already hundred K, I missed IT. Oh, there is an a fear media, these things that fork that that's that's enough. That's enough of a reason to expect the bounce maybe.

Yeah, you know, I think I do think B, T, C is bottom, and I hope that's what you are looting to jordy. But yet the flows, I mean, we we are talking about this for the show with travel. I mean, the flows, if you look at from the last week or so into the three, has been have been actually extremely impressive from blackrock. Infidelity, which is you know giving me some hope.

it's great. I mean we were having so many zeros a previously that now having you know hundred million, two hundred million um it's substantial. I need for the size of a theory I think it's it's still good amount um I think um you know some of the other coins have have done some interesting stuff.

There's you know X R P is still baffling. I have talked to some people this week and they like you because being a hundred k does not surprise anybody. We kind of all about that this day would have come eventually but some of these rallies and X R P um are interesting and it's got this eric wall video up that he found by our or two forty, which is even higher than last week.

You're looking at IT IT has flip salona IT like IT completely flip salona IT wasn't like IT doubled IT just ran IT over ah now now it's a twenty five billion above so h so long I had a little bit of a rough week. It's it's kind of flat for the week despite everything else. Rip in end.

yeah. So this is your your favorite period set up. Justin sTyler and X, R, P are kind of making fun of the ilona guy. He can't find IT all comes around. And like.

I got to respect the pump.

I think I think someone needs more of these videos. Let's bring up these video, uh, of some analysis of exert, if you seen this one, travis. But this is, this is some expert tiktok analysts here.

Too many fellow members of Jenny. I am tired of old people. This is how we're gonna get rich and do what I really want.

It's common knowledge at this point that the richest people in the world don't have their money from ninety five. They have investments, and we can all afford to buy a house right now, or even in force and five hundred stock. So here's what you got ta do, downloading APP that you can use to buy cyp to currency.

I use the APP. It's literally called cypher dot com, but it's an APP. Anybody can do this and then buy as much X, R, P or ripple as you can afford every single paycheck we have to invest in report, because for multiple reasons, when they just made a deal with apple to form something called rap, this is a huge deal, because apple runs the world prety much at this point.

Finally, they have bills with major banks all through out the world. There are the first cry pto currency to undergo the process of being regulated by the government, meaning that when crypto is the main currency, it's going to be ripple. And right now is only twenty five cents of share. In twenty .

five cents, though he was right.

he treated all of us.

Have you seen this tweet by bands? Um you know this kind of like touches upon the new coin stuff as well though you have this tweet where he's saying, you know me coin's maybe they should take IT to being a fake business because he says we've even put exact clean to crime Better. It's more of a fake business. The fake business meta can sometimes translate into real business. If you're in the meme coin crime meta, consider paving to the fake business.

I IT is it's like almost it's like a smarter. There's like you know, there is a bit of like right curve in that in that ship post. I think um and I think it's just indicative of kind of the weirdly of this market and in this this weird saying, I guess you can in a way how to boil IT down to left curve, right curve, middle curve kind of mean that because like with the ripple thing, one thing that you do see writers is the unit bias.

And the unit bias is like a very real thing that A A meaningful portion of market participants are you basically don't understand and get fool by. There are a number of X R, P holders in people that caused the Price to move up in xop, which is plenty liquid. This is not some fifty million dollar cap ship on.

This is a billions of dollars of volume that move this thing um and they bought IT because they were like, this isn't one dollar. Bitcoin used to be a one dollar and the point is now one hundred thousand dollars so don't tell me the X R P cannot go to a thousand dollars. Don't tell me that you know exactly how exactly.

And 这边 的 the thing is that makes this market so weird。 And one of the things that makes this market so weird is that maybe people that are a little more right curve realized how many people that are market participants that are like that. And then they're like what i'm to trail that trade.

And there's a lot of examples like that. We're like the right curve thing is to like mimic the left curve thing. And there's that is like a very um a heavily present factor to crypto investing, which is just the sort of strange eo drives a lot of the mean point stuff, right? IT drives a lot.

IT gets like move danger or whatever, like peanut, right? Like it's like the right curve is like left curve loves this ship. I am like, i'm a right her guy, and I can do ten million dollars into this day. Yes, I was GTA say .

that that seems to me the whole narrative, right, the whole this is around this mean coin meta, is that eventually retail, the left curve is going to come in. They're going to buy these silly tokens because it's fun. But what's interesting, as we've seen like I think we're seeing, that's not actually true. They're actually going back to the things like X R P, the business model.

Yeah yeah. Let me pose the question because is I don't think you can think of X R P in a vacuum. I would include and maybe you guys have like A A screen or up amon in front of my computer, but it's like h bar algo um tron X R P, what are the other? I knows .

that steller rus.

yeah I try eum pop the hardest.

This is just the seven day top performers. And yes, it's all of these coins. Gala.

yeah. okay. So then now let's friend this, the question, why did those as a group pop.

I heard of others like being going around about, I saw two hundred twenty two like this is gonna be the basis of of a you know, the government and try by coming in and, uh, doesn't make a lot of sense to me. But maybe i'm missing.

I I heard a couple theories, two theories that really stick out to me as possible. The first theory I heard as people are seeing bitcoin and crypt t all time high and their the people that are coming back first, there are the ones that were here during the peak in twenty one, and they're buying coins that are familiar to them, which are the coins that did the best last cycle. So that's the first explanation i've found that could be plausible. And then the second explanation, which is plausible, and maybe these are working together, is what you are saying, travis, where the right curve is now saying is trying to predict this when retail actually comes back and there's all this interest, what are they are going to buy and then they are front running that and maybe it's a mixture of both.

Yeah, maybe all the right covers. They're pumping these things on purpose so that that captures the attention. And then no, he gets retail. And if you can share my screen, just it's like this is kind of relative where it's not the top when nor me start buying, it's when they start buying, there are up by vex and they keep adding because they are confidence growth. And I I think that's what, you know, eventually leads the tops.

And I think, you know, we are the first face of people in X, R, P, or whatever, right? They make like a fox. They feel like a genius.

And then I like, why do I only put ten k, let me put fifty k and like they start venturing. And I think we are kind of starting the process. Uh, yeah, that's kind of like what what I think right now.

I agree with all of those. I would throw in the rumor that U. S. Domicile crypto projects may not have capital gain text, which I I don't think is legitimate but IT is in because the like the cardono in the X R P communities I think these are I think these are communities that nobody uh here today participates in.

And and I don't think any others have a particularly good understanding of that community. And it's kind of like the the youtube community where like sometimes i'll see sound like crypt o youtube r and they have like seven hundred thousand subscribers. I've never heard of the guy.

I've been doing this for seven years. I've never heard of him. And if you can tell, that is just this corner.

That is just nothing like the corner that sort of like I spend time and you guys spend time in this sort of thing. And I think that those corners are the types of corners that can get themselves worked up over. Our bags are not going to have capital gains because with their U S omi. D like i'll give you an example, this Charles hot consent he got like a few weeks ago, right after he learned of the park. Okay, so he he is that right?

He's come on once for a one year in the person special.

you know, he does like an unbelieved amount of youtube content generation. And you see the one where he was like, i've been spending a lot of time with the trump administration and like the next few years, i'm going to be like very focused on like advising this administration like I don't know how true that is. IT would not be my new jor reaction to that particularly fuck and true that just maybe i'm wrong about that.

That would be my usual reaction but like he tells his guys, you know he tells that whole crazy community that and like oh my god, hospital like it's like cardono is going to a be like the chosen crypto of like this new administration or whatever, right? So I think that there is that component to IT. Um I think etf I think there is an etf component, uh, specifically with X R P where like this thing could be first up. Um and I think that matters.

Do you do you think extra peaking just get I need to F I mean, didn't um all the stalling happen for thereon and bitch ven that they were not having some legitimate source and then eventually seem in the future has got accepted as legitimate source? Um do we need to go to like that cm around you think it's a .

great question and I don't know the answer to that. I don't know what they know. You're obviously getting this is the dawn of a new day from a regulatory perspective.

And so it's like do the new cftc sec crypt crypt to council crypto zr, do these people decide like, okay, we still want to do IT through the C M I futures out or is IT like no, we don't like. It's like that was bullshit. We don't need IT.

We can go some other way. Coin base plus crack in or whatever pricing fine. I don't know the answer to that, but you put you bring up a good point .

and we don't even know like if there is an etf are are proving people Better bought the theory mea if like if there is an X R P one. Um maybe I mean, maybe these retail serving their life savings and their retirement plans into an X R P T P which which would be interesting. Um that thing that's clear though is that these are not necessarily the same communities.

Like you said, they were used to clip twitter like let's say, like sweet pumps. Then probably there some people going on there and to find like the new coins on suing, you know there's some beta. We had Justin bram uh go to the X R P mean coin check coin staff and try to capture some of 的 obvious， like catch of trades, like we talked to with flood last week, when I hypos are doing really well.

You know, we were buying some per because, you know, makes sense. You buy some jeff coin. Uh, when X R P pumped like crazy, just then try to get the ways what what did you find, Justin? And what was going on in there? It's very interesting.

Some in some D G M group chats and the thinking was like, while X R P popping, you're gonna have a great dear community. This thing just football. A maybe this has again been the next place for ponzi games for D I.

So bunch of us in the group change like, well, how do we actually even use the X R P chain? Turns out there's X R P letter, which is a mathematic snap. So basically, with your existing media x well, you can get onto the X R P leger via, and you can bridge your X R P of the accoona.

So I actually bought a bag of X R P bridged IT over to my wallet, and then started playing with, this is what harder is like the jupiter of X R P. It's called magnetic. A bunch of us um bought the project token unfortunately I bought IT right around here, let's say and didn't do too well on this magnetic token.

Ah but it's interesting like this if this marketplace takes off. I mean, this is like the main dex for X R P. It's only train of sixteen mile fd v, which is fascinating.

And then they have their own little ecosystem of mean coins here. This is the biggest one called army. It's trading of the thirty million dollar FTP. And I was just like an enlightening experience to play around with this chain. See that there's like actually a chain out there and like a very, very primitive ecosystem that's actually been around for a while. I mean, these tokens have been around the magnetic deck has been around for a long time, so unfortunately lost some money there, but you know gained a lot and experience.

It's not a loss until yourself, Justin, it's until .

you may not did back to eat my safe zone. How's the chain work? Uh, actually it's great.

okay. Yeah it's like, you know, google completely.

Yeah so they have this one really genius part of the whole system, which I think we need to copy in a theory um landsman. There is a minimum amount of X R P required to have an account on the X R P leger. So you need to hold ten X R P in your account just to use IT, which I think is is really interesting.

Um I mean, it's quick I can speak even looked at the centralization component. Earth is just a google sheet but it's quick. IT works well. And um I I didn't have any issues with that. You know the infrastructure is not really there but like IT works.

the jupiter of X R P at seventy million that sounds like value to me. Not sure if anyone use that shame but .

um yeah to make play there is a lot of left curve into X R P. And I don't know these guys wanted go find magnetic.

but they're like there are is funny. They're doing the same thing we've been through, right? Theyve got the farming pools. They've got a mean launchpad. Theyve got nf t is really interesting how they are like just running IT all back.

We'll see what how can you go back to magnetic girls that the N, F, S, the f.

this is probably similar cards.

Or girl, so maybe there are you.

I excited.

I, I like the wings. I like .

the wings just said the transaction .

feels super cheap, right? Yeah.

I didn't even notice IT. I think it's basically there.

So maybe the steel man myself out or just double advocate a little bit of me saying that exp is a joke and if you're long, you should sell everything there. We have been doing this first long as i've been in cypher. We have been doing this exploration of what do you need to centralization for and how to centralized, to centralized enough.

And we continue to do that. Exploration ation today and a big a pitch for salona is that it's fascine cheap and then IT works, although I think we all know and actually doesn't like always work. Like when you really did you really, really want IT to work, like when everybody wants you to work, actually doesn't work that well, which is notable.

But that's that's the um you know that's the pitch for sona. And so may be with X R P if you're just like, hey, it's a google sheet, it's always going to work and it's always going to be cheap. And like what do you need to centralization for and how to centralize this to centralize enough? Yes.

I think there is something to be said there. But I will point out like I think IT is fair to say you can be like the Price of X R P is objectively wrong or so the Price of salon is objectively wrong salona. F T V is won fifty. X R P is two fifty. Like just looking at usage adoption, traction metrics, either so long as while the valued or exercise like wild the overvalue, I don't see like case where they're both fairly valued.

Let's so if I got financial and million more concrete as well travel. So you've obviously been thinking about this for a long time. You written like some really good thought pieces, especially during the you know the height of um this nail ism.

Have your thoughts changed there? Is is this like new land now? And that has this A I thing changed some of the stuff looking at?

yeah. So I I write this monthly IT goes up first every month, have been write IT for over six years. Now, the february first monthly of this year was entitle the lack of pretense, the any of this shit does anything and we'll ever do anything.

I turned IT into a tweet thread. IT went super viral. The next month I wrote financial IOS and desire guys of Young america. IT went even more viral. That ended up being the most widely red thing i've i've ever written. So at both of those like really resonated with people ah that this is a did sort of like what I was talking about there did very much play out both like immediately, like in the first, like couple months afterwards.

And then I think if you are going to try and characterize twenty, twenty four that also kind of a played out like that, would the others been a taught of meme coin mania? And I think in some ways, some of these dino coins, I think you could characterize, uh, through that lens as well to a lack of pretence in the need of this shit, doesn't anything we'll ever do any anything um the with with financial nya ism. I think the update that I would want na put on that is that nya ism is the opposite of hope. And I strongly feel that this tromp administration brings hope to amErica until the world at large. And I think IT is my base case that is going to play out in a positive way in the coming years and that um as that backdrop changes, there is at least the potential for people to get less nyalong tic in their own lives in various different ways like speaking of hope.

right? Um this is a cyp of forecast. So from like a markets perspective, like maybe the IOS m mastah as okay like fucking like this is by means. Are you just saying that, travis, no, you are thinking about election more to utility or or attack focusing less on. Is that kind of like the world you're in visiting for markets and you think you know like the means mean going dominance is topped no as contract, what morals talked about?

So yeah so I would not be what I was just describing, I think was more of a multi year like broad turning the direction of a ship, like from a societal from a cultural perspective. How that trickles down into trip to subsector market performance in twenty twenty five that I think i'm less sure about. I can certainly imagine like it's would IT be my base case that a basket of marriage means will outperform bitcoin in twenty twenty five.

That would be my base case. I just i'm just being an honest, that would be my best case, but that's just more of a call on like where I kind of think we are in the crypto cycle and risk appetite, how risk appetite has been expressed over the last eighteen months. And crypto, you know the degree to which I think that, that would continue over the next year. Where do do I think we are from a macro perspective, kind of central bank liquidity, you know microcar cle easing type of stuff? Um that would be that would be my base case .

is the a hyper game gambling gonna change. So like, is this no, I don't want to make fun of ability, obviously like a rat hole. Whatever this Young lady was talking about is kind of batch crazy. But the other stuff you started with of, you know, hey you all you know, our generation not making any money like these guys is own the assets we just need we we Better take a shot here um that's not gonna change, right?

Like regardless of whatever like the workers and and the workers, we're stuck in a place worth, I don't know that thirty three trillion or thirty thirty four trillion or thirty five because the number keeps going up on the national that so quick. I I can't even like check the headlines, but we're stuck in a place where you know inflation is gona keep coming. They are gonna keep printing.

There is they have been filed a way to that. There is another way that that that that's the solution, unfortunately. And um if you're not holding assets and you're sort of just battling against the waves, you are gonna want a hyper gamp, especially if you are you know like trying to make IT out. Is that gonna change?

So a couple things I would say there. The first thing I say is um you can have a view on the department of government efficiency and how effective that's gonna be, and you can take a view on this administration ability to deregulate and how effective they're going to be there. And if you put in an effective dose combined with effective deregulation, that does put the sancy of the dollar in a much uh uh, stronger spot.

I'm also just not um the dollars about the collapse guy. I'm not um I M A i'd never have been. You can find me on record talking about that.

The way I talked about IT for years is the following. Uh, the U. S. Monetary policy is the best monetary policy house on a really shitty monetary policy block.

I've said that many, many times and what I mean by that is like when you look at what we're doing relative to the euro, a, relative to the in, a relative to the u an, we're in much Better shape than anybody else. Like it's like just much Better shape. So like the euro will collapse before the dollar, the end will collapse before the dollar.

You want on counter harder to say just because it's hard to get good data out of there. But I don't think anybody would argue that china is like in a Better spot within currency than the than the U. S dollar right now. And so so this path like an eventual dollar collapse or you got ta get through a in collapse and euro collapse and probably you want collapse. If those happens, you're also .

gonna collapse. Like I forsee a collapse. I just foresee a situation where you know inflation becomes endemic to to the economy. You can't raise rates. You can cut rates. You know you're kind of just having to eventually get austerity, but nobody wants austerity and like you just end up getting like redistribution and all kinds of other stuff.

I think what you're describing can continue to happen. I guess I just met specifically people that are trying to frame this from the lions of a inevitable dollar collapse. And I think the point I was trying to make was that all of these other currencies are onna collapse before the dollar, and all of that is dollar strengthening, not dollar weakening.

And so then maybe fifty years from now, you get to like the final boss of, like the ends collapse, the euros collapse, maybe the u. an. Is collapsed, dozens of other minor currencies of collapse, yet the U.

S. Dollars left bitcoins trading IT eight hundred thousand a coin or some ship like that. And now you have this like final. Okay, now what happens, right? And I just I try to remind people kind, kind of of that.

So what I was going to say is like those and, uh, deregulation, I think can just if it's effective, can just, I think make people in general feel a lot Better about the same to ty of the dollar, how that role through to inflation like just reported CPI inflation? Um i'm not sure I don't think I have a strong view on that. I can imagine mass portion being you know inflate like an causing an inflation impulse. Initially I got I I think I can imagine that I do not have like a strong conviction.

Yeah and then we'll have the tariff games gonna have all this off and um on the doge thing I earn, know what just in taking you guys have any view like when people start getting their benefits cut or stop, you know I don't I don't know what they are going to be cutting first.

But usually when somebody goes in and says, okay, we onna reduce the bijan where to find things um I remember of my first uh trading job, they they started cutting the passage the weekly there a piece that was coming in in massage traitor. So we had a whole room. We had a room with like a massage table and they just cut them no more beside you. That was unpopular. You know people started like you might not need IT.

but you you used to IT.

My my view is, is the consensus view, which I think everyone on this call problem shares, it's going to be really hard for them to cut anything that matters. But like the fact that the group exists and the fact that we're seeing news articles about this is going to be beneficial in the long term. But of course, this can be extremely hard, if not impossible, for them to cut the pentagon budget, right?

Yeah I just think it's crazy that called dodge department of government efficient efficiency you know like I feel like, you know I I agree with everything travis said around just people hyda gambling um you know you can argue that the future for cyp t looks really bright. And maybe we have builders that moved away from the U. S.

Come back to the U. S. And start building you want now. Uh but I think in the short term, you know, we really haven't invented like that many new things, right? The greatest innovation we had IT was like pump fun and me recreating I C O S and like news points.

Uh, so I think in the short term, we're gonna continue hybrid gambling, but maybe next cycle or in a few years, we're gna have like actual use cases. Uh, because if you told me that you know pump on would be the bigger at in twenty twenty four to like naive tii four years ago, I wouldn't like do I don't believe you right? Like we're going on board the banks. Like know.

I think I was feeling that way, but I think i'm kind of starting disagree. Like if you told me today crypt l had topped and I was time to sell the stables, I don't think I would pull like I think I would keep funds in arena I would be letting on arbi, right? Like I think it's there are the applications where you can keep your money in the ecosystem and not just pull IT out.

yeah. So so, so a couple things. So on the on the cutting government spending. So so the government is twenty five percent of GDP.

So if you cut two and a half percent, I hope you cut ten percent of twenty five percent of GDP. That's two and a half percent of GDP, also known as like a very significant recession. Trump has that no desire to do that.

There's just no way that's going to happen. But the S P five one hundred is is arguably the metric that he cares about more than any other metric. Um so with the government headcount layoff s they're giving two years of seventh two years so that that is a very significant sort of smoothing factor uh, when you're giving that much difference.

And in the way that I was talking about the actual cutting budget, my guess is there's like so much waste in the government that maybe you can cut five percent of so you know, one in a quarter points of quarter GDP, but that there's so much waste that it's not actual GDP. It's literally just taking dollars and putting him in a bonfire and so that he wouldn't actually hit the economy because it's just so uni magine ably wasteful that IT doesn't flow through like that. And he gets that done in the first couple years.

And then they go we're going to try and keep doing more of that kind of thing so that I was one thing I want to say and then go back to the all deal, the very the very beginning of this um I think utility verses means to me the key factor for that in twenty twenty five is just gonna be this regulatory backdrop. And uh just to repeat my base cases that very quickly you get a series of um settlements and no action letters out of the S C C and A C F T C combined with executive orders out of a the White house construction with this crypto council and crypto s are and that you get that quickly and that an aggregate that looks like a defect or regulatory framework and then you have legislation to get that has not work on a longer time frame and maybe we can get that done in a year. I don't know exactly the time frame, but I think that maybe matters less because I think you get the defect or regulatory framework quickly.

And then does that lead to a bunch of um uh token retaken structure changes and existing tokens or new tokens to come out with different set of token structures that look sort of you know security like uh and have more compelling value. Cruel mechanisms associated with them that they can now do because you've got a regulatory backdrop and allows for them to do that. And then do you have a whole bunch of these things that are sort of suo securities that are feed generating that are returning those uh, fees and in a more value, compelling value, a cruel manner? And does that whole kind of wave sort of just kind of take off and then get steam in a way that pulls capital out of meme coins because people just feel Better? And maybe trade fy guys are like, oh, it's got a yield to IT, not like, and the regulatory backdrop diminished.

So now it's like the capitals, actually, you gonna get some like being traditional pockets that will go into these directions. I don't I can imagine a world where that happens for sure over the next twelve, eighteen months. But I can also imagine a world where it's like, no, you're copying these things.

The meme coins are copying them wrong. The cop is part lives like the the compass, multi leg sports spending part ways. And those are continued to just the popularity those continue to rip.

So that's actually what you need to be thinking about, about the standing power of this mean coin sector. And so IT stays because people just wants to keep acting like that. And honestly, that latter thing kind of feels a little bit more likely to me.

Yeah mean, I think tiki had the best analysis on this. Like tiki famously capitulated on like interest in most of his portfolio or in defied because even if all of the things we want to happen expect to happen from a regulatory stamp point come true, these things are massively overvalued relative to like the fees they could potentially you and most of the fees, which is aren't even odd, right? So we don't even know how much usage would decrease when physical on, but like their massively over prize time in uni swap at sixteen billion dollars right now.

Yeah that being said, after I sold my def I coins, they have gone on a tremendous room so maybe I don't know what .

the first you're ruling my pastors and I am going to use all the taking margin pastors.

I'm getting logged so hard, it's ridiculous.

It's a last second because I have a lot of hay mog post. I want to share um why you're enjoy IT or so just then you maybe kick us off and then i'll i'll go second.

So yesterday was an exciting day. Bitcoin hit one hundred K I was even, even though I don't nearly hold enough, bitcoin, just a tiny, tiny amount. But IT struck me, oh, that the day bitcoin hit one hundred k so many people got blown out, login the hack to a mean point and just getting dump ed done by insiders and just had me cracking up.

People bought this the day B, T, C. Went two hundred K I could you imagine you look back on this historic day, december fourth, twenty twenty four, right before an one day, you APP ed into the hawk to a meme coin when bitcoin was hitting one hundred k just absurd. Um and I think it's like very on topic to our um analysis. First fundamentals talk here. There is a lot of people here getting tripped up in the mean coins.

People will never stop taking me coins. People will never. They are going to keep, keep buying, keep getting rug.

Yeah, I mean, thank you. I gotta this to you. It's just been in the whole week my entire feed.

There's so many of these. Let's let's go through a couple of stuff. First one says you just been ticked. You you're .

a verb I, yes, I did IT you.

You were like, I am always hyperlink with you. You came on the show, you said i'm always haven't sold hype. I'm going and then, you know, we get we get .

a crash. I, gay people, a really good entry though, you know.

credible process. This is a picture of, you hear the last thing you see before your bag news, fifty percent. But like.

you got to a, give me credit there, right? As soon as I bought this, the entire market started pumping, you know, not my back, my bag started going down, but everything else that are pumping, you know, i'm like the sacchi's lam. So I think IT all these dream to.

Here's my favorite here that now A I agent that cannot traits takei, who's building this.

Yeah, IT is a inverse crammer, but .

inverse tag verse take.

I would long if if someone who creates that asian, I will despise that again. Then i'm perfectly hedged. You know i'm bullish ed, my that some bullish inverse turkey.

the universe will explode. IT will one of those like a moments where the the weight of the magnetic pool will be repealed equally and you will end up in a black hole. So do not buy the inverse ke agent.

I don't know, man. I think it's going to go up. I think there's enough A I devout that's financially and some device to do IT. So if you're thinking of IT, let me know travel.

Have you? Have you? Have you what have you thought any a agent coins or what's your thoughts on those agents?

So I have spent, yep, a good amount of time uh on this over the last really epic right at two months now was when go came on to my rate R I saw when when mark and rison send uh terminal truth fifty thousand doors, the big thing was in july and encounter and follow up around IT but I think the goat thing kind of got on my radar in kind of early october and haven't spending a lot of time on IT would prefer to come not talk about exactly what I owe or or don't own but I do think that is very interesting.

I think the space is very interesting. I think IT has the potential to be the headline sector for this cycle. Um i'm not married to that view, but I think IT does have the potential for that.

Part of my view on that is that this this emerging sector can A I agent meme coin intersection sector is very interesting with a backdrop of the rest of cypher being incredibly uninteresting. I don't know how you guys feel about there and just name me another sector that's like super interesting. Like it's like hyper liquid, like this is like the nineteen thousand decks that we're going to do and like this is what we're getting fired up about right immediately goes to ten billion.

You know it's like trades over. Maybe it's not people delt thing. And it's like.

you know, the good thing is the agents keep getting Better as well. I mean, their involved things were we talked about phrasal last week and um at something we're onna see like some agent be like a billion, right like IT might not be next year, but at some point I can happen.

I agree with that. Yeah yeah, agree with that. Yeah they could probably be if you gave, sorry, if you gave me even money, that within two years you would have an A I agent with a billion dollars worth of economic resources in a portfolio, I would take that that even money .

yeah and it's is crazy to think about like the consequence of just for society or just as humanity like like, oh my yeah.

that's my entire. This is for the a coin omeo cycle, right? The collective market capable.

These agent coins is under five billion. It's under five billion. That's a way too small. Like if you just pick decent, you just buying believe is buying hall and you know like I think you're going to be fine. That's kind of the reason I top plastic art coin.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Agree with that. And IT is very early to gordy's point. It's a very, very early here. And I do think that there's multiple time frames to this trade.

They're sort of like, do I think we will blow a bubble in the very near term? Like to talk is point, it's four billion today. Will I go to twenty in the next three to six months? What I think the likelihood is that the four billion goes to twenty billion in the next three to six months. I take a view on that likelihood.

Do I want to go play in that game? And then there's like, do I think what is the likelihood that there is some multiyear runners that are going to emerge in the next let's give you the same time, rape three to six months. There's like A, A, B and b in there somewhere or something like that where you buy and you just want to own listings and buy more on deep kind of thing. And I think that both of those look attractive to me.

I think a lot of this stuff is sort of just emerging, and we'll see which teams are able to create something that evolved in a very interesting and powerful way. And i'm sure something will um cool. Let's rap up the past as take you show your pasta.

Yeah, I was gonna mog myself, but geordy arty mog me to quickly look for a new one suggestion. If you can pull my screen here, we always think about, you know, investing in the future finance and you know, I feel I sometimes feel like this summer, right? It's like I spend all this time looking at, you know, D V.

I like A I fundamental and then some board just walks up me, hey, like, you know, your shake coins are bad, like you should about a real coin like X, R P. And he would be so true, these room as we like, it's so true. You know, I I just put some exr, p, but some excEllent. No, I treat somebody said that.

uh, if you bought X R pin last thirty six hours, you've outperform people holding a thereon for like last know two years or something. There was some crazy stat. So if you literally just came in top, lasted the worst you know, situation, you outperformed all the genius that are bad holding heat for cycles.

I think. Are k Justin? Are k. Justin.

I'm trying to internalize that. You have to respect the pump, and I will come back to you and you will get the pump. S, if you respect other people's pumps.

So I am happy for the X, R, P. Community and thrill for them, thrill for the sonic community. Although I do think, I do think what happened to the asian communities happen to the sonar community.

Mart is now talking about inflation and issue in reduction. I do think this thing is all the same story that just gets played out over time, time and time again. So but happy for X R. P.

Travis, you you have a past as well. We can get up this me.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Just spoke up in a cold sweat had a nightmare taking made of bud stalks. So the actual mean coin is is treating itself.

hoping that time is this to score.

Do i'm japanese? Man, what do you think? But thank you. Thanks for thinking that I had that big of us long. It's an honor.

Oh yeah, go.

And you had one more mean that you share the travis yeah .

here we go. Yeah so this this just, yeah, this one just sits a little. You you yeah. I don't think people can see you on the street.

These are just had a little close to home just because I came out of ten years of traditional, you know, had fund investing and people thought I was totally crazy to leave leave A A good traditional job to go into this wanky world of crypto. And IT has, without a doubt, bit and insane ride. But IT did feel, you know like some kind of moment last night when we when we crossed one hundred gys. So yeah, just for specific listeners.

the girl said, dad, wherever you went back in at one hundred k for the first time, he says, looking for stocks trading below their intrinsic value and then and then the sun says, reach. Ah right here. Um do you .

guys know if if if I do, a different postage is falls off .

of travelers nicely, right? We see.

And and this one travel that was a good subway for mine. Ah you wouldn't get IT a crypto is so easy when you hear that. And then i'm here in the hostel solvers ef L T warfare and ninety five percent of downs, humiliating family meals.

I think we just have think's giving. I can't even glow about my bags because i've been holding each. Meanwhile, x rp, tiktok, these people are doing well, up seven hundred eighty percent. And i'm still there. I won't even saying the trench is .

just in hell.

just in hell.

That's so sure. Yeah.

that's that's .

tell me how how they .

feel like like crypto is so easy. I mean, IT, when you're in the situation where you don't have we haven't had a substantial corrections in the election. Um every single coin has had moment and IT just feels like the easy mode, which um for people that are used to efficient markets like like you and I drive is IT and for me just feels a bit unreal that there is this much inefficiency where the Price discovery is happening to such a an incredible degree.

I think you said something in the pressure like if you can just buy a fear and sell greed and crypto its ten times more powerful than than any other market. Yeah we'll see how how things last for the holidays in any end of year. Do you track this stuff?

I mean, you have done this newsletter for a long time. Like is a decembers sort of uh, selling for tax realizations and stuff like this. What do we expect .

there's got to be at least some of that and some names, I think. But I think you probably and maybe we can do some pull back in december. I get the sense that you want to be longer stuff, jane.

One, though, I just I think you will see significant inflows into the space in the first months or or two months of the year. I think there's uh liquid focus crypto funds that uh really have have continued to just not raise very much capital um and uh, I think that that's changing in very real time. And you are seeing significant inflows into those sites of phones right now.

And that money he's gotto go somewhere. And I were just kind of, you know, right in the middle of that. I don't know for me. I think I mean, if if we get super over leverage, you can do a link White, you know, I think in any time down, down twenty, you know, you know kind of clean up a lie, clean up funding rate kind of thing in back hire. We did a number of those in the last cycle.

I like that you we can get those kind of at any time, but that still feels like the part of cycle where you're kind of hoping for that with a little dry powder. You probably want to be buying there, I guess, as others want to be buying those kind of things as well, too. And I think the the first kind of larger scale, longer, deeper pull back.

The the thing that's on my rate are is if if you have inflation heat up and had asked with the reverse course and now we're talking about hikes instead cuts and that could strike use the kind of thing that could put a major pause on on all of this. And you know give give B, T, C some meaningful pull back at last some number of you know weeks and months rather than days. And you know I think everything down market cap would act as as beta to that new type of situation. And but that strikes me as a trade, it's I think that's probably after we go up higher.

Yeah, it'll happen at some point though, right? Like IT seems that we've seen a trumped power clash last time he was president. And i'm expecting some moment where you know assets are obviously at all time eyes, we're onna get Price go up.

It's inevitable when everybody just has you know more, more money and there's stock accounts of something else. He's going to want to raise rates. And trump is like that.

We're going to have this twitter bashing of power and this guy got to get rid of him. And um I think power has been very clear that he's he doesn't given, doesn't give enough just then. I stay on until is IT twenty twenty six I .

think yeah April.

I think the rumor .

the rumor is that um the treasury secretary spot is like the dry run for the fed chair appointment. I I don't know how much uh, legitimacy is to that, but I i've heard that. But it's basically like if best and does a good job over here, you know that the move meant into fed chair and then troup bring somebody else into treasury.

Yeah I mean one prediction I guess is um around q one, we start getting higher inflation numbers. How what was pushing back. We get this like big battle between them.

And then as soon he as he replaces him in twenty twenty six with some more favourable lucky than than we just start printing again and that's one of you can hit the the peak maybe that i'll be the two hundred fifty plus guys ah it's been it's been fun obviously historic week um I want to end with a clip from this video that I supose ted on twitter which kind of been captured some of moments. So we in last does in the years, I guess, of bitcoin journey and um travel think you are coming on. I appreciate IT. Uh let's let's put some of this clip in an end in a high note. i'm.

I've got to be, they are at the north of x world. High quarters you typically want to talk about today is between class 无情的人。

What do you think, I think a drag point. So get away another way. Feel away.

There's no second match to act. There's character is called that there's a second. But take all your money by this time they take all your time, figure out 这是 蛋糕 的。 win.

Sell IT more to get fined and convert the coating into the hardest one.

不是。 Typically ally, you kind of lost them much.

People always gets respect .

the I respect the .

pump in all asses. So what what.

我 刚 发出 去了。

Yes, zero. 拜。

It's what you know, jell not that bad.

so.

Zed, people reply to most .

recent say like it's scary .

to know scammers and .

I think the irony there that is like I don't think on the cover, but the same time I also what is try to do.

Like you might talk, my wife knows they were here.

By the way, he knows we can.

现在 没 你我的 出口。

And time.

money laundering, tax boys, sex, trafic, those are good use cases the last time I ever stayed by.

对。