EP89: A Look at Philippine Midterms with Professor Cleo Anne Calimbahin
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Welcome to Straight Talk Southeast Asia. This is a podcast that covers current developments in the region, particular countries, domestic politics, as well as regional issues. We look in depth at what is happening, why it might be happening. We speak to analysts, academics from the region, based in the region, and to better understand what's happening and what might be the projections of what's happening ahead. We're now in our second season.

I'm Bridget Welsh. I'm a political analyst and academic who's worked on Southeast Asia for many decades. I was raised here. I'm living here. And very importantly, I care about what's happening in the region. Thanks for joining me. Welcome to Straight Talk Southeast Asia. You're here with Bridget Welsh and my co-host, Zach Abouza, as we discuss developments in Southeast Asia with prominent researchers and analysts across the region.

It's episode 21 of season three. This episode will focus on the discussion of what happened in the Philippine midterm elections and what that will mean for Philippine politics moving forward. And I think you will find the conversation between Zach and Prof Cleo to be fascinating about what is happening, what could happen, and how politics in the Philippines is being transformed.

Before this conversation, however, I'd like to highlight three major developments that I think are going to affect the politics of the region. The first is the developments in Thailand, where the Election Commission has charged 53 different senators for alleged collusion in the 2024 Senate elections.

At face value, this is a huge number of people. But it also indicates the impact of political fragmentation, political cooperation, and the role that the Election Commission plays in setting the parameters of who can be in the political process or not. This is something that has been shaping Thai politics for many years. It will continue to shape political dynamics among a very fragmented political elite.

It's not yet clear how this will impact political stability in Thailand, but it does show that things are not all as they seem in Thailand and that the role that cooperation among elites can take on a very different type of character. Many question the results of the Senate elections. What we can see is that the investigations and the charges that are taking place raise those questions even further.

Also connected to Thailand, we see the Vietnamese and Thai government have signed a comprehensive strategic partnership.

What we're seeing is a pattern of the region, strengthening of bilateral ties among Southeast Asian countries. This is the direct product of the Tareq War, but it is also a product of the fact that countries in the region are looking to strengthen their ties and their economic links as geoeconomics is shaping the region's politics to a greater extent than we have seen in many years.

A third important development is an ongoing contestation in Malaysia for the deputy position, potential leader behind Anwar for the Qadlam Party. It has been a very intense fight in politics where there's been a lot of things said, particularly on the side of the less favored candidate, that is Rafizi Ramli, from a perspective of the administration.

This is calling into question the issues of power consolidation, the issues of nepotism, but also more fundamentally, how PQR will be able to navigate the question of secession as well as continue to be a voice for reform with potential greater inclusion for women as one. The candidate that is actually running against Rafi Zee is Anwar's daughter.

So it's a fascinating development, which we'll see this play out over the next week as the party elections continue to unfold. I now turn it over to Cleo and Zach for a very fascinating conversation on the Philippines.

On May 12th, the Philippines held its midterm elections, which was in many ways a national referendum on former President Rodrigo Duterte, who is now awaiting trial for crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court in The Hague, as well as his daughter, impeached Vice President Sarah Duterte.

Midterm elections tend to favor the president, given his patronage networks. But these elections were far from the knockout blow Ferdinand Marcos Jr. had hoped for, with only six of the 12 newly elected senators in his camp. Sarah Duterte faces an impeachment trial in June, and 18 of the 24 senators need to vote to convict her, which, if it happens, would serve her a lifetime ban from politics.

So this election has a profound impact on dynastic politics, the impeachment of Sarah Duterte, and the next presidential election in 2028. Here to discuss the election results and their implications is Dr. Cleo-Ann Kalimbahin. Dr. Kalimbahin is a professor of political science at De La Salle University in Manila and a senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute at Australian National University in Canberra.

Amongst her other positions, she serves as a fellow and a board member of the respected polling institute Social Weather Stations. Thank you for joining us. What are your main takeaways from the election?

From the results that have come out, it's critical for both the administration and the contenders. This midterm election is important. When I say contenders, it's not necessarily the opposition, since some of these candidates who were traditionally from the opposition tried to shed that label out because of the 2019 midterm elections where no opposition won.

What we saw was some of those names from the pre-election survey jumping into the winning 12 senators for the midterm election. Specifically, former Senator Bam Aquino and also former Senator Francisco Pangilina.

So Senator Obama came around as an independent, not as a Liberal Party member where he used to be a member of, but Francisco Pangulina ran under the Liberal Party. Only six of the 12 senators are firmly in the Marcos camp. I want to start with what does that mean for the president's legislative agenda moving forward?

It's been consistent over the years that the voters are looking for candidates who will do something about the rising cost of goods and also issues of employment. So I think the legislative agenda will continue on that track.

I think what's more critical is the impending impeachment of Sarah Duterte. Currently, they don't have the numbers for that. But at the same time, these senators are elected nationwide. So they all have a specific constituency. The impeachment will then be a stage for these senators. And if there's anybody there with ambitions for 2028,

then they might play a bigger role or they might ought to play for a bigger role on the impeachment. They need 18 senators for a conviction, correct? Nine. They have to have nine from this current slate. Okay, so 18 in total. And what are the numbers right now? What does it look like?

Some of these senators were endorsed by Marcos and some of these senators were endorsed by Sarah Duterte. But we don't know how they'll vote come the impeachment in July.

As one other colleague said, of course, all bets are off once they're already senators. So it's hard to tell how this will play out. But there are some personalities that more or less people know are not inclined to impeach the vice president. There's less numbers of those who are very vocal about the impeachment.

President should feel somewhat chagrined by this result. He does have the power of the presidency, the power to endorse. How do you think it's going to impact President Marcos going forward? Definitely after this election, he needs to consolidate support, especially at the upper house, but also at the lower house. It might be easier in the lower house because his cousin is still the Speaker of the House and the Speaker of the House controls the budget.

The budget cycle plays a very important role. But seeing the results now, the endorsements didn't necessarily translate to votes, did not necessarily translate to winning senators under his slate. So the next post-election, President Bombo Marcos will need to consolidate his support across the board. This is about the impeachment, but it's also because of the arrest of former President Duterte, the ICC.

That initially was thought to be a move that will happen after the election. Instead, it was done before the election. And that has definitely created this change in preferences and changes in the narrative of the campaigns. And now we're seeing it in the electoral outcomes. Was that a mistake on the part of the president to move so fast against the former president? Is it going to blow back on him?

I think it was overplayed. If the initial plan was to wait until after the election, that would have been the more strategic thing to do rather than do it before the elections. And then the narrative completely changes to sympathy for the former president. Former President Duterte ended his presidency early.

with a very high satisfaction rating despite the war on drugs, the number of deaths in that war on drugs. Despite the poor pandemic performance of his administration, President Duterte ended with almost 80% satisfaction rating. So the family definitely still has a lot of supporters out there.

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And it's not just in Davao. It seems to be nationwide. You saw the two senators that won the most support were clearly in Duterte's camp.

That's correct. It's not just in Davao, although in Davao, there are, I think by now, five Dutertes who ran. I'm not sure if they've secured their seats, but it seemed like they were going to win. I've seen the numbers for Davao right now, what the final numbers are. But in terms of the support nationwide, that is correct.

The media has also covered the support from the overseas Filipino workers in different parts of the world. In Europe, where they have mobilized in support of the former president in The Hague. In fact, they were the first ones to mobilize in The Hague when former President Duterte arrived. You would think it would be in support of the arrest, but actually they were supporters of the president chanting, bring him home.

One thing you said, I think it's a fascinating point. That is how senators might use the impeachment trial as a platform for their own future political ambitions, especially if they have an eye on 2028. And I think back to the hearings in the Senate of Mama Sopano after that botched counterterrorism raid and

how there was a lot of grandstanding. And so I was just wondering if you could tease that out a little bit more, because it's a very important point.

You're right. These hearings become an occasion for grandstanding to be in the national limelight. These are televised and people are carefully watching these proceedings. But while these are going on, there's also now this digital platform where social media also has its own chapter.

You're right that in previous hearings in the political history of the Philippines, you've got all these individuals who are able to grant that. But now you're going to have to couple that as well.

with social media presence, that ratchets up visibility, that ratchets up as well the reach that these senators will have. So it's not just televised anymore, but it's now going to be online. That will have a wider reach for overseas Filipinos, for Filipinos in different parts of the country. I really think this impeachment will showcase some of those who have ambitions for 2028,

It will also show who is loyal to which political dynasty. But that will also mean exchanges. That will also mean some compromises in order for you to win the loyalty of these senators to have them vote either way.

It'll be interesting. But like I said, since there's no party loyalty to speak of, right, in the Philippines, and the senators, they play to a nationwide constituency. So it's too early to say what the numbers really look like in terms of who will vote for and against.

They will squeeze the airtime in order for them to be able to also come out more prominently to the public in the line of questioning that they might have and also in their opening remarks. The next thing after the election would be the impeachment. And again, with everyone's eyes set for 2028.

Early after the election, and I know you haven't had a chance to really look at the data, but I was wondering if you could talk about generations, how the youth voted and how that is going to play out.

There's a lot of talk that the youth vote came out. The youth vote does not always come out for the Philippines. But I think in this instance, some people are saying that millennials, in terms of the youth vote, were the highest number of vote share. People can look at the youth vote as something to harness in the future. While there are command votes in certain parts of the Philippines,

There are probably market votes now that are increasing in highly urbanized areas where you can't have those command votes. And for as long as opportunities are mostly in the highly urbanized areas, the number of the youth vote in those areas will also be increasing because they tend to flock to these areas for employment. So that's something worth observing and really examining and also watching out in the future for any voting pattern that they might have.

One of the things outsiders of Philippine politics tend to note is the prevalence of dynastic politics. You've already mentioned this blood feud going on between the Dutertes and the Marcos clan. But what did this election say in general about the power of clans or are we seeing some new faces emerge?

It's interesting because in this election, the political dynasties, of course, continue to be the dominant number of candidates out there because of incumbency advantage, because of the high cost of elections. But we're also seeing dynastic families rupture from within.

So there's infighting within the dynasties itself. We're seeing it in places like Makati, where you have the Binay family, what was a very strong dynastic family of former Vice President Jedramar Binay, now has the children splitting into different camps, vying for the same seats, either through the spouses or

or through the children directly. So you're seeing also infighting within dynastic families. Even in the north, in Ilocos, you're seeing that, yes, the Philippines continues to have what an economist termed as fat dynasties because they occupy multiple positions in elective offices. But we're also seeing more and more infighting within these dynasties as they expand and occupy different places generally.

generations of members of the dynasty end up also competing against each other. Again, we'll have to move away from the categories of fat dynasty and thin dynasty in the Philippines as we see this variation unfold.

Yeah, we're seeing it play out between the president and his sister most continuously right now. Right, right. That's correct. And one of the last campaign videos of Senator Amy Marcos was precisely about her Marcos last name and that she had been advised to drop it because she is seen as siding more with the Duterte's. So that's really playing out at the national level. We

between the president and his sister, which was unimaginable maybe three, five years ago, that within this very strong Marcos family dynasty, that your key members of the family occupying the top most positions within their dynastic clan are actually having this very major disagreement in the public eye.

Fascinating. Families, man, families. Last question for you because you're very busy with the elections and the analysis. And I know that there are many people trying to talk to you right now. But what are you going to be looking for in the next three years ahead of the national elections? We've seen some upsets, some dynastic families that didn't make it to the magic 12 of the senatorial slate.

Some very long-established dynastic families, even some celebrities, did not make it to the magic 12 in the senatorial race. So I think that's a win for some of the reformists when you have somebody like Bah Makino coming into second place and also Francisco Panglina coming into fourth. I think he's in the fourth place right now.

So there's an opening for reform politics, which didn't seem to be present in 2022 with such a big upset with the candidacy of Lenny Robredo.

But now we're seeing some openings. And even in the local elections, we're also seeing some upsets of very established dynastic families losing their positions. There's an opening for reform politics again, but it's a matter as well of them being able to consolidate support, being able to mobilize support. And also now that they are elected, to be able to show to the voting public that they will try to do something and really push

really push for what they campaign for. So it can't just be rhetoric on reform. People will need to see that these candidates are really going to go against the grain. And voters have seen that with somebody like Senator Risa Anteberus, for instance, who's been really going against the grain in some of the progressive parties as well in the lower house, going against the grain.

And now we're seeing the likes of former Senator Lila de Lima back in Congress winning a party list seat. We are seeing somebody like Shel Jocknell, who's a human rights advocate and lawyer, also winning a seat as a party list member.

There's pockets of hope, both in the Senate and in the lower house and also in the local government units. Hopefully people will also be active, not just during election period, but also have a sense of stronger participation post-election.

Thank you so much for joining us. Your insights were terrific. And I like that you leave us on an optimistic note. And there's not a lot to be optimistic about in some parts of the world with elections these days. Thank you for the invitation again. I'm happy to be answering the questions here. Thank you for your interest in the Philippines. Thank you for listening to the episode. Subscribe to the show on your favorite podcast listening app. If you'd like to keep up to date on current Southeast Asian political affairs, just keep following me.

This is Bridget Welsh, and I look forward to connecting to you in the next episode. Straight Talk Southeast Asia is produced by Norman Chella, a.k.a. Norm, and you can find him at thatsthenorm.com. Thanks so much for listening.