Ep. 2175 - REBOUND or FALSE SPRING? Has The Market Hit Bottom?
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Well, folks, we'll get into everything market related. The market remains a chaotic place. The Dow futures were up. The S&P 500 up this morning. So what the hell is going on? We'll get to that in a moment. First, you know, the legacy media, they think that you're too dumb to see through their manipulations, narratives, headlines.

We know better. At The Daily Wire, we are going to bring you the facts, no filter, no spin, and then you get in on the conversation. Join the live chat during our daily shows, 100% uncensored, ad-free, packed with fans who actually think for themselves. My producers are also in the chat daily to add to the conversation. Get the news the way it should be, honest, fearless,

Without an agenda. Your voice matters. Be a part of it. Join now at dailywire.com slash subscribe. Alrighty, so the markets were in turmoil yesterday. They finally ended down slightly. And one of the questions is what the hell is going on? Have we already hit bottom? Is sort of the big question. Because if we have, great. The Dow futures, again, this morning, were up over 1,000 points. The S&P futures were up about 2.5%. The NASDAQ futures were up 2.26%. So is all the panic overrated?

Is it all over? Are we basically now on even keel footing? Now to understand that, you sort of have to understand what happened in the market yesterday. So it was a wild session yesterday in the markets, up and down and all around. There were points at which the market was down over 1,000 points. There were points at which the market was up over 500 points.

And nobody really seemed to be able to get their hands around what exactly was happening. According to the Wall Street Journal, stock futures rose in after hours trading Monday following a day of market whiplash that ultimately left major indices largely unchanged. Contracts tied to the Dow Industrials, the S&P 500, the tech heavy Nasdaq 100 all ended up gaining more than 1%.

A false dawn on the tariff front fueled a brief rally Monday morning with the S&P 500 surging some 7% from its low on the day before the administration clarified there would be no delay in implementing new levies. And this is the key to understanding what's going on with the market. So yesterday there was a $2 trillion swing, a $2 trillion swing. And part of that came in the middle of the day when there was a false report that Kevin Hassett, the head of the National Council of Economic Advisors, had said that there would in fact be a 90-day delay put on the tariffs.

And it turned out he didn't say anything like that. It was a false report from a blue check on Twitter. And again, blue checks on Twitter don't mean what they used to mean. If you were a blue check during the old Twitter days, that meant that you were somebody who was usually at a large outlet or somebody who was quite famous. Now you can sort of buy the blue check. And so just having a blue check by your name doesn't mean anything, but it's still taken in the old way. So some bizarre account put out a statement saying,

that the United States was going to essentially postpone the implementation of Trump's tariffs for 90 days. And the market spiked immediately, went up hundreds and hundreds of points within minutes. The White House said that's not true. And then the market dropped again. Again, that was bad reporting. CNBC ran with the reporting because they were very excited to be first.

And then the market's dropped again. And right now, nobody knows what in the hell is going on. And that is the key to understanding what's happening right now. Because no one knows what's going on. People are afraid that they're going to be selling into an up curve. And they're afraid they're going to be buying into a down curve. And so pretty much the markets are just chaotically roiling at this point, which makes perfect sense. You can see it not just at home, but you can see it abroad. So, for example, the Japanese Nikkei.

It dumped tremendously in the early morning yesterday. And then in the aftermarket last night, the Nikkei ended up rising 7%. Why? What happened between Sunday night and Monday night? And the answer is that Treasury Secretary Scott Besant put out a tweet thread in which he said that Japan was in the middle of negotiations with the United States.

China.

China has chosen to isolate itself by retaliating and doubling down on previous negative behavior. Over 50 countries have responded both openly and positively to the president's historic action to create a fairer, more prosperous system of global trade. We look forward to meaningful negotiations with them over the coming weeks. So it sounds to Japan as though the Trump administration is looking for an off ramp, like they are looking to get off this train. And indeed, the best case scenario for the tariffs, I've said this since literally the first day, the first day is that what Trump was looking for was a zero tariff regime with a

various countries around the world. That basically he declared war on pretty much everybody in order to get everybody to the table. And then he could get them all to lower their tariff barriers and non-tariff trade barriers. Victor Davis Hanson, the historian we've had as a guest on the program, tremendous historian, has a piece of the free press trying to make the strongest possible case for Trump's tariff regime. And what he comes up with is reciprocity. Here's what he writes in the free press.

The fall of the Soviet Union and the ensuing globalization should have shocked Washington policymakers out of their static half-century trade orthodoxy and into readjusting American trade policy to ensure parity and reciprocity, especially as Chinese imports, coupled with U.S. outsourcing and offshoring, began to result in a rust belt with an array of accompanying social and cultural pathologies. But the 1990s exuberance of an unrivaled hyper-power America, now victorious not just in World War II but over the Soviet Union as well, created a sense of unreality in Washington.

And so he concludes, quote,

In a larger Trumpian sense...

A nation that will not secure its border, insist on fair trade or address a $1 trillion annual trade deficit will be considered weak abroad and ripe for exploitation. In terms of national security, America now relies on other nations for key parts of our munitions, for life-saving drugs and medicines, for strategic materials and ores, et cetera, et cetera. The emphasis on reciprocity is the key to winning support for Trump's tariffs. And then Victor Davis Hanson put out a tweet that essentially said the same thing.

Please, tariff symmetry, he writes, quote, a key to reducing the nearly $1 trillion trade imbalance and encouraging foreign investment is the idea that trade reciprocity and parity, roughly zero tariffs or identical reciprocal tariffs between the United States and trading partners are our primary goals. This is a concept the American people support wholeheartedly and even an extremist will continue to do so. Totally agree with that. That is right. I've been calling from day one for the Trump administration to take the off ramp

of zero tariff policy. I've said from the beginning, before the beginning, that if what President Trump is attempting to do is get, for example, some sort of win off of Mexico or Canada before even this current tariff regime, if the goal was to get Canada go to zero or Mexico to go to zero or shore up the border or whatever else it was, make that clear and then do it. But a chaotic rollout of global tariffs without any sort of clarity as to what we are attempting to achieve, that is going to be a different thing.

Victor Davis Hanson, who again is an ally of the president and is talking up the tariff, says this, quote, "'Talk of either reparatory tariffs, "'additional fines on partners "'for their past asymmetrical tariffs, "'or higher tariffs on countries "'that either now run deficits with America "'or have little or no tariffs with the U.S. "'will lose public support "'and only energize opposition "'to what otherwise is rational "'and sympathetic American position "'on rectifying a half century "'of chronic and mounting trade deficits. "'True, many countries level tariffs "'under insidiously Machiavellian conditions, "'such as falsely constructed health and safety barriers, "'excise and VAT taxes, and currency manipulation.'

But those complexities, says Victor Davis Hanson, should be left for round two of negotiations, since for now the public is mostly concerned with do unto others as they would do unto you reciprocity. Getting to zero or identical tariffs with a host of current mercantile trading nations would be an astounding accomplishment and one that the public needs to digest, appreciate, and savor. Before in one fell swoop jeopardizing such historic corrections by trying to solve the entire half-century trade quagmire all at once.

A task that will lose public support if the countries are still tariffed after agreeing to zero or reciprocal tariffs with the U.S. And that is the thing the market is trying to game out. Right now, the market is trying to figure out whether Donald Trump actually wants the off ramp or whether he wants a longstanding trade barrier regime designed at reducing trade deficits rather than reducing trade barriers. That is the big question in the market.

And oddly, that chaos in the markets, the sort of roiling in the markets as opposed to a total dump, might actually give President Trump the room that he needs to do more with regard to this tariff regime. If the market stays currently where it is, say just around 40,000 or below in Dow Jones Industrial Average, just around 5,000 in the S&P 500,

If that's where the markets stay, President Trump is going to feel like he hasn't actually done anything that the markets don't like too much. And then he is going to continue to roll out stricter and stricter tariffs. It's a catch-22 for the markets. If they jump the wrong way and they sell, if you sell all your stocks and then President Trump says, hey, off-ramp, we're negotiating bilateral trade deals that lower trade barriers, you look like an idiot. If you don't jump and President Trump continues to

to push away allied nations who are coming to the table on bended knee, offering everything. Then you look like an idiot. So it's a catch-22. Everybody is sort of frozen in place. And the Trump administration could easily misread the markets being frozen in place as a quasi-approval for the thing that he is publicly saying he wants to do. This is why mixed messages are such a problem politically and for markets. Because what exactly is the market doing?

happy about and what exactly are they sad about? This is why I put heavy focus on the jumps that you saw yesterday in the markets. So you saw that jump when? When there was talk that President Trump was going to postpone the trade barriers, right? That's when you saw a jump. You're seeing a jump in Japan when Besson says there's an off-ramp. In other words, people...

People want more free trade, not less free trade. And that is going to be the big burning question here. What does Trump want? What does President Trump want? Does he want more free trade or does he want less free trade? Well, it's not clear exactly what Trump wants right now, but President Trump did specifically exempt gold and silver bullion from the sweeping new tariffs. While these new policies are triggering significant financial chaos and uncertainty, the administration preserved your ability to diversify into precious metals.

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There are three rationales for tariffs, traditionally speaking, called the three R's of tariffs. One is revenue. And we're going to raise revenue by essentially forcing countries to pay a tax when they bring their products in, which means that it gets passed along to the consumer. And for a long time in the United States, tariffs were a chief way of bringing in revenue. We didn't have an income tax. The reality was that we were a largely agricultural country. And so importing products into the United States created an enormous amount of revenue.

Those days are long past. We're not going to be bringing in seven, eight trillion dollars in revenue, the kind of money that it would take to replace, for example, the income tax if we were going to increase the trade barriers. So revenue is one possibility. You've heard that retail by President Trump. We're going to increase our revenue. Number two is restriction. And the real question here is whether President Trump is doing tariffs because he likes restriction or the third are reciprocity. This is the biggest question in the market. Restriction or reciprocity?

Are we restricting trade because we are seeking to protect particular sectors of American industry? Or are we seeking reciprocity so we have more free trade restriction or reciprocity? The markets are not going to like a restrictionist tariff regime that is designed to, quote unquote, reshoring manufacturing. If what that means is that the cost of the rest of the American consuming and producing public.

And the reality is that people have a wildly mistaken view of just how many jobs are powered by various sectors of American industry. Here is a chart of job sectors in the United States. Historically, this chart shows you over time how jobs have shifted in the United States. So when you take a look at 150 years of U.S. employment history, this is according to Visual Capitalist.

Agriculture in 1850 represented a huge percentage of American employment, represented something like 70, 80 percent of American employment. By the year 1900, agriculture represented about half of American employment. Meanwhile, manufacturing was quickly rising. Manufacturing hit all time highs in the 1950s and 60s when it represented somewhere in the neighborhood of 26 percent of all American jobs. Agriculture shrunk down today.

The reality is that about 10% of jobs in the U.S. private sector are in manufacturing, 10. And 10% are in agriculture. 80% are in services. So if you are doing restrictionism in order to bulk up American manufacturing, which by the way, will be largely done by machines, not by additional humans. If that is your goal, and it's not a national security goal,

It's a goal because you think you have a peculiar view that America is going to return to the 1950s where people were so we're working on sewing machines and factories or riveting and Ford factories. First of all, it's not the way that it's going to work because that is not how it works in industrialized countries. You have factories that are like that in China because China has one point four billion people and can force people in penury to work for pennies on the dollar.

But here in the United States, we're going to push all of that into machinery, which is precisely why industrial production has continued to rise while employment in America has actually dropped because technology replaced the jobs. It was mostly not outsourcing. It was actually technology that replaced those jobs. Bottom line is this.

If the goal of President Trump is restriction in order to bulk up the number of people employed in the manufacturing sector, for example, which sometimes President Trump retails, the markets are not going to like that. If the goal is reciprocity and we start seeing in the next few days, President Trump cut good deals, which is the thing everyone is urging him to. I'm urging it. Elon is urging it. Bill Ackman is urging it. Everyone, Besant is urging it, as it turns out.

If that is the plan, then the markets are right not to panic. If that's not the plan, then it's a bit of a different thing. And President Trump is sending totally mixed signals right now. So we don't actually know what the story, again, none of this, by the way,

is a rip on President Trump's China policy, which I think is right. I think we should be tariffing the living hell out of China. China is a bad actor on the world stage. In fact, one of the reasons not to tariff our allies and look for zero tariff regimes with, say, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, is because you want to build a ring of fire around China. You want to build a trading ring around China that throttles China. You want all of those countries to be our allies. You want all of those countries to trade more with us than they trade with China. That would be the goal.

When you force everybody out into the cold, they're going to start making common cause with each other. That is the reality. You're seeing it from Canada of all places. Mark Carney up in Canada is basically saying he wants to do a trade deal with China. And China is coming and offering all these places zero tariff regimes while President Trump is pushing out 10% tariff at a minimum. So going after China, which is what he is doing, that's great. It needs to be paired with being friendly with our allies. Good foreign policy and good economics is

Your friends are your friends and your enemies are your enemies. Not your friends are your enemies and your enemies are your enemies. That is a bad policy. President Trump hit back hard against China, according to the Wall Street Journal yesterday, but left the door open to talks to lower tariffs for other countries. Again, this is why I think the markets are kind of sanguine. President Trump's comments leave countries and industries to fend for themselves ahead of his self-imposed deadline Wednesday for imposing steep duties on nations like China, Japan, and Vietnam. So today's going to be a big day, depending on whether he cuts any deals or gives indicators that the deals are going to be cut this week.

Here's President Trump yesterday asked on whether the tariffs are permanent or whether they're temporary. And his answer was some of one, some of the other. Who knows?

Well, it could be, it can both be true. There can be permanent tariffs and there can also be negotiations because there are things that we need beyond tariffs. There are a lot of things like opening up countries that were totally closed. China is essentially a closed country. In fact, it is a closed country. And what they do is they charge tariffs so that if you sell cars or if you sell anything, nobody's going to buy it because the price is out of control. But that's true with a lot of other countries also.

We're going to get fair deals and good deals with every country. And if we don't, we're going to have nothing to do with them. They're not going to be allowed to participate in the United States.

Okay, so what does that mean? And the answer is nobody knows what that means. President Trump, for his part, he's telling people not to be panikins. This is his new term that he coins. Whatever you think of President Trump's policies, the man is deeply amusing. So President Trump put out a tweet yesterday urging people not to be panikins.

Quote, the United States has a chance to do something that should have been done decades ago. Don't be weak. Don't be stupid. Don't be a panicking. A new party based on weak and stupid people. Because you're panicking. Be strong, courageous, and patient. Greatness will be the result. It's like if Marcus Aurelius...

I had a bit of a drinking bout right there. Strong, courageous, impatient. Greatness will be the result. Don't be a panic in. OK, well, listen, everybody is happy not to panic if President Trump takes the off ramp and we get to better trade deals. In fact, that'll be a win for President Trump. He should take the win. That's a thing that he should do.

Because if not, then bad things could easily happen. Now, again, this is what his team is telling him. His team is openly telling him at this point that he needs to be taking the off ramp. So Politico says that Scott Besant actually went down to Florida to lobby President Trump on Sunday.

To talk about his endgame. Quote, Treasury Secretary Scott Besson flew to Florida Sunday to encourage President Trump to focus his message on negotiating favorable trade deals or risk the stock market cratering further, according to two people familiar with the conversations, granted anonymity to share details of them. Besson, who landed with the president at the White House on Marine One Sunday night, told Trump markets would remain in peril unless he started putting more emphasis on talking about his endgame with tariffs, winning deals with other countries.

Besson's view was the markets will keep melting unless you shift, one of the people said. You're not going to abandon the policy, but you have to talk about negotiating and what the endgame is. A second person described the meeting as an opportunity to figure out next steps after 50 countries reached out to open discussions on the U.S.'s new tariff regime after the shock and awe of last week's Liberation Day announcement. The purpose of Trump's April 2 tariff rollout was to create maximum leverage over foreign governments, the person added, describing Besson's view.

Trump and top administration officials have spent the last several days urging Americans to brace for a long, painful, potentially permanent trade war. Besant is perhaps the most powerful voice urging Trump to telegraph to anxious Americans that there is an end in sight. Besant is the first known advisor to try to urge the president to alter his rhetoric on trade, albeit privately and gently. So he's pushing open, open talk about negotiations, talk about negotiations. And then Besant himself is doing that, as we mentioned, with regard to Japan.

Here is Bessent making the case publicly that President Trump is giving himself leverage for negotiations. That's what this is all about. President Trump, as you know, is better than anyone at giving himself maximum leverage. So what he's done is we outlined the tariffs on April 2nd and then gave the countries several days to think about it. As I advised on many shows on April 2nd, I said,

suggested that the foreign officials keep your cool, they do not escalate, and come to us with your offers on how you're going to drop tariffs, how you're going to drop non-tariff barriers, how you're going to stop your currency manipulation, how you're going to stop the subsidized financing. And at a point, President Trump will be ready to negotiate.

OK, sounds great. And that was reiterated by Kevin Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council. He says there are going to be great deals on the table. We're going to be looking for great deals. And so he's doubling down on something that he knows works and he's going to continue to do that. But he is also going to listen to our trading partners. And if they come to us with really great deals that advantage American manufacturing and American farmers, I'm sure he'll listen. I've seen some deals that are great. And the president Trump is President Trump is going to decide if they're great enough.

But again, after decades and decades of mistreating American workers, it's going to be tough to get him to decide to really come to the table and sign on the dotted line. But when he does, he's going to sign with that big, long, beautiful signature, and he'll have made a great deal for America.

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Okay, and this is the thing I think that most Republican senators are looking for as well, including longtime allies of the president, like, for example, Senator Mike Lee of Utah, who is more on the libertarian end of the spectrum. He said Trump could go down as the most pro-trade, pro-growth president in modern U.S. history if he uses this moment as an opportunity to reduce trade barriers. Senator Ron Johnson, another MAGA ally, he said at some point you have to take yes for an answer. And this comes after Vietnam, Taiwan, the EU. People are coming to the table and they're saying, let's go zero for zero. Let's do this thing.

In fact, global leaders are rushing in trying to get President Trump to actually agree to these things. According to the New York Times, on Monday, European officials offered to drop tariffs to zero on cars and industrial goods imported from the United States in return for the same treatment.

Israel's prime minister stopped by to personally petition Trump on Monday in meetings at the White House. Vietnam's top leader in a phone call last week offered to get rid of tariffs on American goods entirely. Indonesia prepared to send a high-level delegation to Washington, D.C., to directly negotiate with U.S. government. Even Lesotho, a tiny landlocked country in southern Africa, was assembling a delegation to send to Washington to protest the tariff on its exports to the United States, which includes denim for Calvin Klein and Levi's.

So is Trump willing to negotiate? This is the big question. This is the big question. Is he willing to negotiate?

If the answer, of course, is yes. If the answer is we get to off ramps, everything goes back to status quo ante and even better because it's basically the same thing that he did with regard to NAFTA and the USMCA. He negotiated a slightly better version of NAFTA that turned out to be the USMCA and it was good for the American economy. He could certainly do the same thing and get bigger wins from other countries. Not as big as the wins that I think that would be touted, given the fact that we don't actually have a 90% tariff regime from the Vietnamese toward America. Those statistics on that chart were not true. Those were trade deficits. But he could get wins. He could

He could chalk up those wins. He could claim those wins and the economy would start to go up again. And the good news is that because of all of this, he now owns the economy. So if the economy goes up, then he gets all the credit. The converse, of course, is if the economy goes down, he is going to get all the blame, which, of course, is a point that is being made by people both left and right. Here is Senator John Kennedy from Louisiana making that point. Is President Trump's economy for better or worse now? Do you think it's Donald Trump's economy now? Oh, I think it is. There's no question.

I think once he decided to add the tariffs, clearly, I mean, he will be held responsible as he should, whether it turns out good or it turns out badly. So he is right about that. Meanwhile, Democrats, of course, are hoping for a recession. They want President Trump to steer the economy into recession. Here is Senator Chuck Schumer, the Senate minority leader, saying that Trump is seeing up a new recession. He's obviously rooting for it.

Make no mistake about it, Donald Trump is teeing up a nationwide recession. Less than a week after Donald Trump started the largest, dumbest trade war in American history, all the signs say America is heading towards calamity.

Okay, so again, they're rooting for all this. So the question is, does he take the off ramp? So we've seen some indicators, yes, because Besant is pushing for it and he's saying he's negotiating with Japan. Again, the Nikkei jumped this morning based on all of that. The Nikkei went up significantly, like 6%, 7% based on the fact that people think there's going to be an off ramp.

And then there are some counter indicators, which is that President Trump is fine with this thing lasting for a while. So yesterday, the prime minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, visited the White House. Israel had offered before the tariff regime even went into place to go to zero. Now, the truth is 98 percent of American goods going into Israel had no tariffs on them. The United States and Israel have had a free trade agreement for some decades.

And again, Israel is just an example of one nation that's doing this. Taiwan is doing this. Vietnam is doing this. Even the EU is making these overtures. So here is Netanyahu going even further yesterday. He was talking with Trump in the Oval. And Netanyahu said, we're not just going to work on eliminating the trade barriers that exist. Those are gone. We are going to work on eliminating the trade deficit. And again, these are two different things. Trade barriers are the tariff rate, the tax rate essentially charged on the import of American goods by foreign countries. Then,

There are trade deficits. Trade deficit is where essentially Israelis buy less of American product than Americans buy of Israeli product. That'd be the trade deficit. I don't know how exactly you're supposed to accomplish that. You can tell Americans that they can't buy Bomba and diamonds and tech. Like what exactly does that look like? But Netanyahu is basically saying to Trump, I'm going to give you every single thing you want. Just take away the tariffs, anything you want. We'll get rid of the trade deficit, even the thing you care about. So here's Netanyahu saying that.

I can tell you that I said to the president a very simple thing. We will eliminate the trade deficit with the United States. We intend to do it very quickly. We think it's the right thing to do. And we're going to also eliminate trade barriers, a variety of trade barriers that have been put up unnecessarily. And I think Israel can serve as a model for many countries who ought to do the same. And so that is Netanyahu giving Trump all the things that he wants.

And then Trump was asked, are you going to reduce the tariffs on Israel? He's like, I don't know. Maybe not. Maybe not. Don't forget, we help Israel a lot. You know, we give Israel $4 billion a year. That's a lot. Congratulations, by the way. That's pretty good. Okay, so we might not. Okay, again, you can make an argument about

whether the United States should be providing as much military aid to Israel as they are currently providing. I made the argument that Israel should do its best to get the hell off of American aid as soon as humanly possibly good for America and good for Israel. That has literally nothing to do with the trade barrier discussion that is underway. I mean, that is it. That is a counter indicator. Then Trump was asked, will there be any pause in the tariffs? No pause. We're going forward full steam.

Would you be open to a pause in tariffs to allow for negotiations? Well, we're not looking at that. We have many, many countries that are coming to negotiate deals with us, and they're going to be fair deals. And in certain cases, they're going to be paying substantial tariffs.

Okay, and then President Trump says it might take some time, right? We might be doing this for quite a while. Here's the thing. Right now, this is all theory. Everything that's happening with this tariff plan is all theory. It hasn't gone into place. Once it goes into place, supply lines start changing. Small business owners across the country are going to get smacked with import taxes.

And it's going to affect their bottom line in a serious way. Prices are going to go up. Right now, it's all theoretical. It's all fun and games. The minute this becomes practical, the minute Vietnamese goods really do get hit with a 46% tariff coming into the United States. I mean, forget about the Chinese goods, which are now going to be hit with something like 104% tariff. But at least you can justify that based on security necessity. But EU goods are going to get smacked.

You know, various goods from around the world, Malaysian, Indonesian goods, going to get smacked. Japanese goods going to get smacked. If that happens, if the rubber actually hits the road, then everything that is currently theoretical discussion becomes reified. And once it's reified, then the markets can make a decision based on new data, actual data, not speculation. Right now, the markets are speculating. Will Trump say yes or will Trump say no? Will he stay or will he go? Will he find an off-ramp or will he stay on this tariff regime? And Trump is giving...

tremendously mixed signals. So again, here he was saying yesterday, it's going to take time. But remember, time is actually not a friend here because the longer the tariff regime is in place, the more the reality of higher prices and restricted supply lines is going to become a reality in the real world. You've said it could take two years to get American manufacturing fully up to speed in response to these tariffs. What happens in the meantime? Should Americans be prepared potentially for years? I'll tell you what happens. We have now

seven trillion dollars, think of this, seven trillion of commitments from companies wanting to go in, from Apple to many, many companies. - But that takes time. - Many from Taiwan, what? - It takes time to-- - Of course it takes time. Are you asking me a question or are you telling me? Yeah, it takes time.

Okay, so let's be clear about this. In order to even build the new factories that he wants to build in the United States requires foreign product. In order to build that new machinery, it requires machinery that comes from overseas. We don't have all this stuff made in the United States. And here is the real counter indicator that Trump is looking for deals. Yesterday, he was asked explicitly, what if the EU just goes to zero? What if the EU just says we're getting rid of all the trade barriers? And he says, not enough because the EU owes us. Okay, if that's the case,

then this could be happening for a while. And this is why, again, if everybody was very sanguine about the markets, the markets would be spiking and just continue to spike, right? Because there's always a temporary bump. He's now making great deals. The reason people are, you know, kind of wavering is because who the hell knows what's happening, right?

The EU has said that they have offered zero for zero tariffs on cars and industrial goods. Is that not enough? Well, the EU, no, it's not. The EU has been very tough over the years. It was, I always say, it was formed to really do damage to the United States in trade. Okay, so again, he's saying not enough.

So what's he going for? This is the thing the markets are trying to figure out. The EU is trying to figure out. Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the EU. She says, listen, we're ready to negotiate, but it turns out that we do 83% of our trade outside the United States. So if it turns out that we can't trade with the United States, well, we'll just reorient toward China, maybe toward Russia, maybe toward places that are not friendly to the United States. We stand ready to negotiate with the United States.

Indeed, we have offered zero-for-zero tariffs for industrial goods, as we have successfully done with many other trading partners, because Europe is always ready for a good deal

So we keep it on the table. Further diversifying our trade relations is very critical for us because this broadens the market opportunities and is crucial for our companies. So we will focus like a laser beam on the 83% of global trade that is beyond the United States, vast opportunities.

So, again, that is von der Leyen saying, listen, we'd love to make a deal with the United States if Trump will take the deal. If he won't take the deal, we're going to reorient elsewhere. And this is the question for President Trump. It is the only question that matters. Is he doing these tariffs because he wants reciprocity? He wants a fairer deal, a fairer shake, free trade. Or is he doing this because he wants restrictionism, because he believes, as he has said many times, that tariffs make us richer? By the way, this is one of the big differences between the his heroes, William McKinley,

The former two-term president of the United States who shot in office during his second term early on, Teddy Roosevelt took over. William McKinley, very early on in his career, he was a congressperson, was extremely pro-tariff. Very, very pro-tariff. He wanted more tariffs because he believed actually that we were taking in too much in terms of revenue to the government. He wanted to lower the amount of revenue to the government. So he actually decided he was going to increase the tariffs to lower the revenue to the government.

The increased tariffs actually caused him to lose his seat in Ohio. He then became governor of Ohio and then became president. But when he ran for his second term, he explicitly said he wanted to lower tariffs. William McKinley, because what he wanted was, wait for it, reciprocity. He wanted reciprocity. That's the that's the William McKinley that President Trump needs to be following here.

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Okay, speaking of which, there will be a fact if it goes the other way. If President Trump decides that tariffs make us rich and make us strong, then things go the other way. As the Wall Street Journal points out today,

The Anderson Economic Group estimated last week auto tariffs alone could increase the cost for smaller cars like the Honda Civic and VW Jetta by $2,500 to $4,500. Costs for larger vehicles that are more heavily affected by the tariffs like the Chevy Suburban, GMC Yukon, Cadillac Escalade, members of all American companies, could rise by $10,000 to $12,000. Used car prices will also climb, according to AEG, as demand increases among consumers who don't want to pay higher prices for new cars.

If tariffs cause carmakers to reduce U.S. inventory, car prices rise even more. Volkswagen said last week it would stop rail shipments to the United States from Mexico. The auto tariffs will cause Americans to pay $30 billion more for cars in the first year, while investors and employees, manufacturers, suppliers, and dealers in the automotive industry will absorb at least another $30 billion in tariff costs, according to AEG.

By the way, something similar happened with regard to President Trump's first term steel and aluminum tariffs. Steel prices in the United States rose 20% in 2018 as domestic manufacturers took advantage of tariffs to raise prices. According to former Ford CEO James Hackett, the tariffs reduced Ford's profit by a billion dollars. Consumers and auto dealers ended up eating the costs. Okay, so the idea that this isn't going to apply at home, that somehow everybody is exempt, that is obviously not true. Maria Bartiromo over on Fox News makes the same point.

They have an effect on Main Street. Some things will become higher priced. We will see some products actually be raised in price because companies will pass on the cost of tariffs to consumers. I would expect that. That's why you have some people saying that we could see a recession. We'll see a growth slowdown.

Okay, so, Bart Romo's not wrong if Trump goes the wrong way. Mr. President, go the right way here. You have the leverage. Use leverage to make great trade deals. You're the dealmaker. Do it. Make the awesome deals. Take the off-ramp. Because if you don't, then what comes next? There's no way, except for your administration, to own whatever comes next.

And there will be pain. I mean, you yourself have said so. According to the Wall Street Journal, workers at Michigan's biggest auto factories are tightening their belts in case tariffs spark layoffs by causing a spike in vehicle prices and a drop in demand. One auto executive early last week darkly predicted Chernobyl if tariffs broadly hit imported parts, which they are scheduled to do next month. There are some, of course, like the United Auto Workers Union, who are happy about all of this because they believe that they are going to somehow increase their share of car employment in the United States.

But of course they believe that. When the auto industry in the United States was bloated during the 50s and 60s, the UAW is what caused the bloat. Meanwhile, President Trump is threatening to veto a bill that would curve his power over tariffs. So again, if the idea is that Trump will own everything that comes next, good or bad, hopefully it's all good. Hopefully it's wonderful. Hopefully President Trump succeeds. As I've said before, the rest of his agenda is too important to get caught up in the middle of a gigantic global trade war leading to a possible recession.

The Trump administration is threatening to veto a bipartisan Senate bill to give Congress the ability to review new tariffs, protecting President Trump's claim of unfettered power in the early stages of a trade war that is sinking financial markets, according to Politico.

Trump's veto threat came as a handful of Senate Republicans signed onto a bill from Senators Maria Cantwell of Washington and Chuck Grassley of Iowa that require the president to notify Congress within 48 hours of issuing any new tariffs and that Congress explicitly approves any tariffs within 60 days. By the way, this is just as a baseline policy. It would be better for this not to be in the hands of a singular executive authority. Tariffs should not be set by the president of the United States unilaterally. You wouldn't like it if it were Joe Biden doing it and you wouldn't like it if it were Barack Obama doing it.

Obviously, this is a legislative power that is allocated to the national legislature under the Constitution of the United States. The one thing that the founders never predicted is that the legislative branch of the United States would basically just give up all of its power to the executive. And meanwhile, all of this assumes that Republicans actually get done what they need to get done with the one big, beautiful tax bill.

And that is now in some risk. According to the Wall Street Journal, House Republicans' moves to advance President Trump's one big beautiful bill this week have been cast into doubt by defections from GOP lawmakers worried that spending cuts are being pushed aside in a rush to enact tax reductions.

Republican leaders want to vote on a fiscal framework that would unlock a fast track to legislation carrying Trump's priorities. Both Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson are hoping to show progress on extending those expiring tax cuts to counteract the market chaos sparked in recent sessions by Trump's tariff rollout. Now, let's be clear about this. The market has already priced in the big, beautiful bill. They believe that the big, beautiful bill is going to get done. The market is not going to spike

on the big beautiful bill getting done. The market is going to dump on news that it doesn't get done. This is all downside risk for the Republicans if they do not pass something here. Speaker Johnson says the American people are counting on us. Failure is not an option. In a post on Truth Social, President Trump directed the House to pass the Senate measure quickly, saying it will make even the subject of world trade far easier and better for the United States. But

The House GOP is fracturing. Republican opponents already have more than enough declared no votes to block the House from passing a version that came out of the Senate on Saturday. They say the Senate version doesn't lock in enough spending cuts alongside tax cuts and pushing it forward now risks unacceptably large budget deficits. So Johnson presumably is going to push on Trump to lean on the Republicans. It's not just members of the House Freedom Caucus like Chip Roy or Andy Harris. It's also Lloyd Smucker of Pennsylvania, David Schweikert of Arizona, who's concerned about budget deficits.

Now, again, one of the things that I find bizarre about the sort of Republican take on budget deficits, the reason for the budget deficits is systemic in nature. You ain't going to be able to bend that cost curve just by doing some minor cuts around the edges of various programs. The rule of politics is really on some of these things, go big or go home. Incrementalism in these bills, sure, it'd be better than nothing. But I'll tell you what, I'm not sure that it'd be better than nothing in this case.

Seriously, given the fact that the downside risk here is you don't pass anything. I think the bill passes and it has to pass because if it doesn't, the economy really does bottom out because it means an automatic tax increase in the very near future. And meanwhile, while all this is happening, again, President Trump is chalking up wins on a number of other fronts. So yesterday, President Trump chalked up a win at the Supreme Court of the United States over the Alien Enemies Act.

According to NBC News, the Supreme Court on Monday threw out a judge's decision to block the removal of men alleged to be members of the Venezuelan gang Tren Daragua to El Salvador without any legal process under the Alien Enemies Act. That ruling, which was a 5-4 ruling, means the Trump administration can try to resume deportations under the Alien Enemies Act so long as detainees are given due process. Detainees must be given time to challenge their detentions via a habeas corpus claim and be able to challenge whether the act is being lawfully applied.

So the Supreme Court is saying the Alien Enemies Act still applies. They can invoke it against gang members. According to the unsigned majority opinion, AEA detainees must receive notice after the date of this order. They are subject to removal under the act. The notice must be afforded within a reasonable time and in such a manner as will allow them to seek habeas relief in the proper venue before such removal occurs. But it lifts the order from Judge James Boasberg, who had blocked the Trump administration from deporting people under the Alien Enemies Act.

Five conservative justices in the majority, Amy Coney Barrett, joined the libs. Meanwhile, Justice Sotanya Sotomayor, who is the worst justice on the court, she said the government's conduct in this litigation poses an extraordinary threat to the rule of law. We as a nation and a court of law should be better than this. Better than this, better than this. All these same people on the left, perfectly fine with Joe Biden completely ignoring the law in a wide variety of cases, including, for example, using the OSHA regime in order to cram down vaccines on 80 million Americans.

But they're deeply worried if the Trump administration cites the Alien Enemies Act to give people due process and then port them off to El Salvador. This is a win for President Trump. He's going to get to continue the deportations. Meanwhile.

According to the New York Times, at least 147 international students were abruptly stripped of their ability to stay in the United States in recent days, according to universities and media reports. The moves targeted students at a wide range of universities, from Harvard and Stanford to University of Texas at Austin and Minnesota State University, Mankato. The University of California had dozens of cases reported across its campuses. Why? Well, it turns out that immigration officers have arrested international students related to their involvement in pro-Khamas causes.

So the administration continues to move fast and break things with regard to deporting students who shouldn't be here in the first place. People who are basically activists in the guise of students and who are brought here for no apparent reason other than to enrich the coffers of these universities and import anti-Americanism and anti-Westernism. So the Trump administration continues to win on that front.

Meanwhile, there's a shocking report out of Doge showing the impact of Joe Biden's open border regime. According to Breitbart, Doge official Antonio Gracias says millions of migrants who are welcome to the United States under former President Biden are now on the nation's Medicaid rolls and voter rolls, with some having voted in last year's elections. This is an episode of the All In podcast in which I recently appeared. Antonio Gracias was there as well, and he laid it all out. It's pretty amazing.

He said that thousands of illegal immigrants were registered to vote in friendly states. And we looked even further in those friendly states and found that many of those people actually had voted. That doesn't include the 7.8 million people ICE has that have come in illegally that we know are here and all the people who are here illegally that we don't know are here. This is what Doge exists to do, is to ferret out all of this. And that's why it's very important that Doge continue its hard work. Meanwhile, President Trump announced yesterday that

that the United States is in direct talks with Iran, that there are direct negotiations happening between the Iranian government and the United States government. The United States, of course, trying to get Iran to give up its nuclear regime. Iran admitted, by the way, this week, shock of shocks, that its nuclear regime is meant for military purposes. No, you shocked me. I thought they were just building nuclear facilities in order to generate more power for the oil-rich nation of Iran. Here was President Trump yesterday with Prime Minister Netanyahu in the Oval Office saying that top-level talks are happening directly with Iran.

I can just tell you there's a major meeting going on between us and Iran, and that'll take place on Saturday, and it's at top level. Okay, and then he continued by saying, listen, if those talks are unsuccessful, then other options are on the table, which is what he has always said. I think if the talks aren't successful with Iran, I think Iran is going to be in great danger, and I hate to say it, great danger, because they can't have a nuclear weapon.

OK, which, of course, is true. A nuclear Iran not not only threatens Israel, it also threatens the Saudis. It threatens global oil supply. It threatens the spread of terrorism around not just the region, but around the globe. Tucker Carlson found this inappropriate time to tweet yesterday, quote, Whatever you think of tariffs, it's clear that now is the worst possible time for the United States to participate in a military strike on Iran. We can't afford it. Thousands of Americans would die. We would lose the war that follows. Nothing would be more destructive to our country.

OK, so the false binary that has always been created around the Middle East is that if you hit a target in the Middle East, full scale war erupts and thousands and millions die. Full scale invasion of Iraq. Barack Obama used to say the same crap and it didn't true. How do I know it's not true? Because literally Donald Trump did it in his first term. He took out Qasem Soleimani, who's the head of the IRGC's terror mechanism, and nothing happened. That is what happened. Nothing happened.

And this idea that a strike on the Iranian nuclear facilities would result in what? Iran attacking Hawaii? Widespread war? Nope. But again, these false binaries...

Tucker likes to posit, effectively act as cover for the Iranian regime. Because again, if the idea is that you have to let Iran go nuclear rather than striking their nuclear facilities, thus endangering extraordinary elements of importance to the American national security apparatus, ranging again from Saudi and UAE to Israel, the Suez Canal, the Red Sea, and all the rest, the Straits of Hormuz, if that's the idea, well, you may as well just surrender the Middle East to the Iranians now, which of course, I

I don't know what Tucker's feelings are on that. He was interviewing the Emir of Qatar. Qatar is essentially a cutout front for the Iranian regime. He was treating them with great care, shall we say.

President Trump obviously does not follow that same belief system, neither does the rest of the administration. Thank goodness. Alrighty, coming up, we're going to jump into the mailbag. Remember, you have to be a member over at Daily Wire Plus to join. And if you do, then you can ask me questions. I will answer those questions and all the rest. Become a member. Use code Shapiro. Check out for two months free on all annual plans. Click that link in the description and join us.