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cover of episode Antony Blinken’s Exit Interview

Antony Blinken’s Exit Interview

2025/1/17
logo of podcast The New Yorker Radio Hour

The New Yorker Radio Hour
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Antony Blinken
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Evan Osnos
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Antony Blinken: 我在过去四年中致力于改善中东地区的局势，特别是在加沙地区实现停火，使人质获释，停止双方交火，增加人道主义援助，并为永久性解决方案创造空间。在10月7日事件之前，我们已经取得了良好进展，促进了该地区国家的合作，并为沙特阿拉伯和以色列之间的关系正常化铺平了道路。然而，10月7日事件后，局势发生了变化，沙特阿拉伯更加关注巴勒斯坦问题，为巴勒斯坦建国提供可信的途径变得更加重要。以色列总理内塔尼亚胡也认识到与沙特阿拉伯关系正常化对以色列的重要性，这将促使以色列重新考虑巴勒斯坦建国问题。以色列社会必须决定是否愿意为了与沙特阿拉伯关系正常化而走上为巴勒斯坦建国的道路。虽然加沙地区的情况非常可怕，但我认为这并不构成种族灭绝，因为缺乏消灭一个群体的意图。国际社会对以色列的谴责很多，但对哈马斯的谴责却很少，这可能导致了加沙冲突的持续。在以色列，要求吞并约旦河西岸和重新控制加沙地带的呼声越来越高，这加剧了该地区的紧张局势。以色列在加沙地区取得了军事上的成功，但长期来看，这可能会导致该地区陷入持久冲突。目前，没有人准备好讨论巴勒斯坦问题长期解决方案，但解决加沙冲突是第一步。解决巴勒斯坦问题仍然存在希望，这可以通过以色列与该地区其他国家关系正常化来实现，这将增强以色列的安全。 David Remnick: 我与布林肯国务卿就中东局势进行了深入探讨，涵盖了从加沙冲突到以色列与沙特阿拉伯关系正常化等诸多议题。我们讨论了美国在该地区面临的挑战，以及在解决巴勒斯坦问题和促进地区和平方面取得进展的可能性。我们还探讨了美国与以色列和沙特阿拉伯等关键行为者的关系，以及这些关系如何影响地区稳定和冲突解决。此外，我们还讨论了美国在应对中东冲突中的作用和局限性，以及在该地区促进长期和平与稳定的必要条件。

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This chapter analyzes the Biden administration's foreign policy in the Middle East, focusing on the events leading up to and following the October 7th attack in Gaza. It explores the complexities of US relations with Israel and Saudi Arabia, highlighting the challenges in achieving lasting peace and normalization between Israel and its Arab neighbors. The role of the Palestinian question and the limitations of American influence are also discussed.
  • Biden administration's efforts to integrate the Middle East region and build on the Abraham Accords.
  • The October 7th attack significantly altered the dynamics, increasing the urgency of finding a credible pathway to a Palestinian state for normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
  • Secretary Blinken's assessment of Prime Minister Netanyahu's trustworthiness.
  • The importance of a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and the challenges in achieving it.

Shownotes Transcript

As President Biden took office in 2021, he aimed to rebuild alliances that Donald Trump had threatened during his first term. That effort was challenged by an onslaught of international crises, from Ukraine to Gaza. The person tasked with trying to restore the old order was Secretary of State Antony Blinken. He spoke with David Remnick days before leaving the White House, and shortly before the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas was announced this week. “I’ve been laboring to try to get to a better place in Gaza and particularly to get a ceasefire that brings the hostages home, that stops the firing in both directions, that surges humanitarian assistance, that also creates space to get something permanent,” Blinken said. “We are, I hope, finally, belatedly on the brink of getting that.” Blinken expressed cautious optimism that a long-term resolution remains possible. “I’ve had many opportunities to meet with Prime Minister Netanyahu. When the conversation comes to normalization with Saudi Arabia, that’s the point at which he sits up, leans forward, leans in. He knows that for Israel, too, that would be an absolute game changer.” The hope is that normalization might induce Israelis to reconsider the question of Palestinian statehood. But Blinken recognized the limits of American influence on its ally. “Israeli society will have to choose. They’ll have to decide if that’s the path that they’re ready and willing and able to travel in order to get to normalization.”