Trump's levers to make Putin talk peace
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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Laura Cook and Tom Noonan. Russian and Ukrainian officials met again in Istanbul in Turkey yesterday, their second round of direct talks in recent weeks. But there was no major breakthrough towards peace, meaning more than four months since Donald Trump took office, there is still no ceasefire in Ukraine.

Ukraine and its allies say Vladimir Putin is dragging his feet. So, if Donald Trump wants peace, what levers can he pull to force Russia to negotiate?

Our guest today to look at this is Dr Rasmus Nielsen, a Russia specialist from University College London. Rasmus, before we get into what pressure can be put on Putin, it is probably worth trying to get into his mindset. Why would he be dragging his feet and keen to extend a war, which isn't necessarily going his way, given that we're three years in and it feels like a bit of a military stalemate?

No, I mean, if we take a last point you said here, that we had Putin expected back in 2022, that Russia could effectively take over the control centers in Ukraine within a few days, maybe a few weeks at most. That obviously didn't happen. However, Putin clearly wants to or has some interest in prolonging the war now because the Russian state has now been set up to be on a war footing for the longer term. Now, what does that mean in practice?

It means that domestically, of course, as long as Russia is on a war footing, or Putin can say that Russia is on a war footing, then he can use different mechanisms at home, more repressive methods in order to keep any sort of domestic challenges away. So if he can show the elites in Russia and the public that we all have to stay together in light of this outside threat, not necessarily the threat from Ukraine, but the threat from, you know, the Western-led world more broadly, then...

then that would work for him. Economically as well, of course, there are lots of people now earning good money, lots of, well, significant parts of the elite in Russia earning good money on the war because of investments in an ownership of parts of the military-industrial complex.

They're, of course, interested in keeping this going for the longer term, not to benefit Russia, but to benefit themselves. Also, of course, if Putin is presented with a, let's call it, solution to the war that puts him in light as a weak person, as a loser in the war, then obviously that can not only remove the advantages he's got of running the wars at current stance, but it can also make him vulnerable, extra vulnerable to future threats. So these would be some of Putin's reasons for keep the war going.

OK, Rasmus, let's go through the different ways Donald Trump can put pressure on Putin to try to move towards peace. Let's start with diplomacy, shall we? What are the diplomatic levers that he could pull to change Putin's thinking? Yes, starting with diplomatic, I would agree with you that's probably the right place to start. The one thing I will preface my answer here with is just to say that

I think you can argue, and I would argue, that the American administration, America as it is now, and Russia are de facto allies in this. It's not that Trump's America is a neutral arbiter or is on the side of Ukraine. Well, what Trump could do to get Putin convinced would be to say, show Putin that Russia can be placed at the same level of America.

that really, we in America, we're interested primarily about what happens in America and on the American continent. Yes, we also have interest in Europe, and obviously we want that to be respected, but you, Russia, if you want to sort of dominate your near abroad, your Ukraine, maybe even your Central Europe, then that's okay for America.

There is this longstanding fear and longstanding narrative in the Russian elite that the West is out to trouble Russia. So if Trump could tell to Putin that we don't want, we want to give Russia some space, gives Russia a place at the high table, if you like, almost like in the old days when you had the superpower so-called sitting around, that would go a long way to show up, well, Putin's prestige domestically, certainly, but also Russia's prestige as Putin sees it.

Now, by all accounts, as I've indicated already, in this, Russia and America are allies. This is the sort of world Trump wants as well, with a few so-called strong leaders like Trump, like Putin, who can then control different parts of the world. And in that sort of world, of course, there isn't much space for the Europeans.

OK, it feels like there are more carrots than sticks there. Obviously, with Donald Trump, economic measures and some would say economic warfare are a key part of his way of working on the international stage. Oh, God, yes. What are the economic carrots and sticks that he's got when it comes to Russia? So if we if we go for a moment with the sticks or potential sticks, just before I'm going to come to the carrots in a moment.

Well, he could, of course, put in, Trump could put in more sanctions. He could put in secondary sanctions against anybody, you know, countries working with the Russians. So here we're talking about countries like India, maybe Brazil, China, so on and so forth. Now, in order to do that effectively, he would need the world to go with him in this. Trump has shown himself exceptionally unable to build up economic allies around the world.

I mean, the whole tariff debacle, he has not shown, Trump has not shown the competence to do this, even though, yes, America could theoretically bring in secondary sanctions and that would have an effect. They could also theoretically try to work on keeping oil prices down to damage the Russian budget. But again, that requires strategic thinking. It requires allies. And Trump is not building that up. Now, in terms of carrots,

Here, of course, what the Americans can do is that they can try and talk about investment in Russia and Russian investment in America. And obviously, the Americans can themselves take off sanctions on Russia, sanctions that they have placed. It obviously won't solve all Russia's problems, partly because the Europeans will probably keep their sanctions going.

and partly because the Russian economy is not going very well, and it hasn't been going well for more than a decade, really. But it would certainly help the Russians, and again, if we assume, which I think we can, that individual members of the Russian elite, including Mr. Putin, are not that interested in the economic fate of Russia, but are very interested in the economic fate of themselves, then they could obviously get quite a lot of money in from working with American investors.

So that's what I think he can do. And would that mean that the war would end? Well, I can see him convincing the Russians to some sort of ceasefire, where you have more or less borders that are frozen more or less where they are now. And finally, Rasmus, are there ways militarily Trump might pressure Russia?

Well, yeah, I mean, we need to distinguish between different things. Obviously, something like, you know, threatening to invade Russia or whatever. Not only would Trump never do it, but it's also a non-starter. Russia has a size and has a military capability, non-nuclear even, that is easily strong enough to resist anything like that. I mean, that's not going to happen. You can, of course, talk about handing over more weapons to the Ukrainians.

And here I think we should particularly be looking at, if you like, the day-to-day arms, guns, bullets and what have you. Here I'm looking much more to the Europeans, because we're looking at the long term here, and I think that's sort of an overarching message I'd like to get across. Let's say Putin dies tomorrow. He's an elderly man, can happen. Okay, Russia is not going to change overnight even without him.

If I'm going to be extremely charitable to whoever comes after Trump in America, you will have a disinterested America. Trump is an old man. He will disappear soon, but America doesn't change after him. So we need to stick this out in the long run, and the Ukrainians need to know that we can stick with them in the long run. Back to what I said before, Tom. You started with the Diplomatic Act, and I think that's absolutely right. Look at diplomacy. Look at the signals that are sending. Then look at economy.

The military is important, but it's sort of a third order thing. We have to look at this in the long run. OK, so having run through all of those factors, the diplomacy, the economic measures, the military threats, do you think there are any other levers which Trump could pull, which we've missed?

well i mean one could be very naughty and say that if the american administration spend as much time concentrating on russian domestic politics as they have tried to concentrate on say polish romanian german british domestic politics

then the Russians might feel slightly more threatened. What I'm trying to say is that the other thing the Americans could theoretically do would be to try and sort of subvert the Russian regime from inside. But A, I'm not sure how successful that would be. If anything, you'd probably get a rallying around the flag among Russians. And B, as I said before, the Americans have no interest because, of course, back to my earlier point,

you're not really going to see the Americans trying to do this in what they hope would be an ally. I think if this is going to go as the Americans would like it to go, this will end with some level of ceasefire, or at least, you know, more or less formal. That's not really the essential part for them. And then it will end with America gradually, or maybe quickly, opening up for economic investments in Russia again, and then somehow economic trade solves everything.

So if the Americans are going to go out and do something, I think lots of carrots and lots of trying to convince the Russians that really, in the long run, we want to invest, we want to build hotels, so to speak. And then you can stop acting crazy, as he said the other day about Putin. It won't work. But that's what the Americans will try to do.

OK, Rasmus, thank you. That's Dr Rasmus Nielsen from University College London. So after yesterday, Istanbul has now hosted both rounds of direct Ukraine peace talks this year. And it was where Russian and Ukrainian officials met back in 2022, soon after Russia's full-scale invasion began.

Last Monday, we published an episode called How Turkey Plays an Outsized Role in Global Diplomacy, looking at why Turkey has become a regional powerhouse and the focal point of globally significant negotiations like this. Do go back and have a listen. That's it from us. Thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. See you tomorrow. Take control of the numbers and supercharge your small business.

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