Trump's Oval Office return: China revenge on his mind
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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Alex Dibble and Toby Gillis. A sliding doors moment for global security. Donald Trump's return to the White House will impact in one way or another...

almost every area within this podcast's remit. Mr Trump's messaging to Israel and Hamas has already been credited with expediting the ceasefire in the Middle East. He recently rode back on his promise to end the Ukraine war in 24 hours. And his relationship with China and plans for Iran have remained vague.

Over the next fortnight, Donald Trump's plans will be laid bare. So what might they be? Our guest today is David Charter, The Times' assistant US editor. David, what is top of Donald Trump's in-trade, do you think? Well, you may have heard that Trump on the campaign trail promised to bring an end to the war in Ukraine on his first day. If not before, that isn't happening and reality has rather caught up

with the president-elect, who has recently talked more about a settlement within six months. And his envoy, General Kellogg, is preparing to go to Kiev, I believe, to meet President Zelensky and the Ukrainians to discuss what Trump has in mind for a ceasefire and a settlement.

And there is discussion that a meeting, not clear whether it's initially a phone call, but perhaps a face-to-face meeting, will be arranged as soon as February with President Putin and President Trump. So that's the Ukraine conflict. Clearly in the Middle East with the ceasefire agreement,

It's up to the Trump administration to oversee the later stages of that agreement, if it holds, as we hope it will. But, you know, when Mike Waltz, the new National Security Advisor, was asked just last week,

what were his top priorities, he immediately talked about the border with Mexico and the imperative of the Trump administration to really close that down and stop the arrival of so many migrants who have been crossing that border under the Biden administration. Of course, we're going to hear an awful lot about how the Trump administration domestically is going to try and

track down illegal migrants and expel them, but also how that's going to affect the United States' relationship with its immediate neighbours. Domestic policy at the top then. Do you think that's the way he'll continue? Or could events force a more outward-looking presidency? I think that he's more focused on trying to keep America out of foreign conflicts than

than perhaps he was in the first term. He's always talked of peace through strength. And so that will involve, at times, threatening difficult customers like perhaps Iran with dire consequences should they cross a line with Trump. And of course, with Iran, that means developing a nuclear weapon.

That won't be something that the Trump administration allows to happen. Now, if it comes to it, that could involve some military action. But Trump is absolutely determined that he won't be putting American boots on the ground around the world. And just as in the first administration, I think we'll see the recall of American troops from allies like he was in the process of

or pulling troops out of Germany. And he was thinking of trying to charge nations like South Korea for the American presence there. David, this idea of peace through strength that you mentioned, it links into the way he claimed credit for the ceasefire in Gaza, effectively by threatening both sides. Do you think he'll stay engaged in this pursuit of peace in the Middle East, in Gaza, once he's back in the Oval Office?

I think it's really important to him, the Abraham Accords, which normalized Israel's relations with several Arab nations, actually, but notably the UAE and Bahrain in the Middle East and Gulf region. He would really like to extend those and believes he's never got the credit that he deserved for

breakthrough that was actually beginning talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia until this, or maybe even prompting the Hamas attacks, who knows. But those talks, Trump wants to get them back on. He would love nothing more than to extend the Abraham Accords to a recognition of Israel by Saudi Arabia. He would see that as a crowning achievement in the Middle East.

So we have some certainty about the Middle East then. Do we have any more on Mr Trump's plans for China? I'm glad you raised China because that really is, you asked initially about the immediate intray, but really the biggest challenge as the Trump administration sees it is China.

And we're going to see immediate actions such as fresh tariffs that will try and restrict Chinese exports and by so doing its influence over America. And this contest with China is going to be the main foreign policy aspect of Trump's second term. He keeps saying how much he respects President Xi,

But he's never forgiven China for the COVID outbreak that derailed his first presidency. So he's very wary of China, of Beijing and those around him. Some of them are extremely keen to bolster up American defences.

in every way imaginable against potential Chinese influence. So that's industrial, economic, cyber, in space. I mean, on all of these sectors, we're going to see, if not confrontation, we're going to see American activity to push back China.

And finally, David, we've seen Mr Trump's cabinet coming together recently. Will it have the so-called guardrails as we saw last time? And how will its makeup affect Donald Trump's foreign policy? Well, it's been interesting actually to watch some of the confirmations and to see that he's got a very serious guy coming in as Secretary of State, Marco Rubio. Again, someone who is a real China hawk.

but also as a descendant of Cuban immigrants. He's very suspicious of Cuba, and I'm sure they will be reversing Biden's order to end the designation of sponsor of terrorism.

Mike Waltz, the National Security Advisor, knows what it's like on the front line, but in Congress has shown he's very well across all of the national security issues. Together, I think they make quite a formidable pair who will have the ear of Trump. They know and have indicated that they're pretty clear who the good guys are in the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

Because let's face it, in Trump's orbit, there are people on the more Tucker Carlson side

extreme, that are pretty pro-Russian. And that's not really where Rubio and Waltz are. So there's actually, there is a bit of tension in the inner circle on how to deal with those matters and say like the future of NATO will be a big topic as it was in Trump's first term. So that's another thing we've got to see to play out. Trump has talked in the campaign about

of completely overhauling NATO and revising what it does. So let's see what he's got in mind. So a very broad entree for the new US president. We will, of course, stay across it both on The World in 10 and in the pages of The Times over the next four years. David Charter, The Times' assistant US editor, thank you for joining us. And thank you for spending 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. We'll see you tomorrow.

Acast powers the world's best podcasts. Here's a show that we recommend. We all have bad days and sometimes bad weeks and maybe even bad years.

But the good news is we don't have to figure out life all alone. I'm comedian Chris Duffy, host of Ted's How to Be a Better Human podcast. And our show is about the little ways that you can improve your life, actual practical tips that you can put into place that will make your day-to-day better. Whether it is setting boundaries at work or rethinking how you clean your house, each episode has conversations with experts who share tips on how to navigate life's ups and downs. Find How to Be a Better Human wherever you're listening to this.

Acast helps creators launch, grow, and monetize their podcasts everywhere. Acast.com.