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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Tom Noonan and Alex Dibble. At one time, after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Wagner Group was probably the most preeminent mercenary group on the planet. Then, its leader, Yevgeny Prokhozhin, challenged Vladimir Putin. He marched on Moscow in what appeared to be an attempted coup.
and exactly two months later he died in a plane crash. Since then, Wagner's barely made a single headline. So what has happened to the Wagner Group? Does it still exist? And if so, how does it help Vladimir Putin?
Our guest today is one of the foremost experts on Russia's use of private military companies, especially Wagner. Her name is Karen Philippa Larson. Karen, thank you for joining us. Let's just start with the basics, shall we? Prigozhin was such a recognisable figure, and this figurehead, I suppose, for Wagner, to the extent that there was a moment where he seemed to be a threat to Vladimir Putin. What has happened to the leadership since his death?
I mean, from what we know, when Yevgeny Prigozhin's plane crashed in August 2023, his son Pavel Prigozhin took over as sort of the formal leader of the group. And compared to his father, he seeks less publicity and he appears much less on social media. For example, Yevgeny Prigozhin really established himself in the Wagner Group on social media.
Nevertheless, as far as we know, he's taking over sort of the remains of his father's company. Then for a while, we had the sort of military commander, military leader of the Wagner Group was Lotus, combat name Lotus. His real name is Antonia Lizardoff.
And he was responsible for military matters. But I just recently read on some rumors on Telegram channels that he had now actually exited the Wagner Group and that new leadership is supposed to take over. So right now, from what I understand, a bit of a change is happening also there.
Karen, the Wagner Group gained real international notoriety at the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, playing a role on the front line and in some instances being accused of war crimes. For example, in Bucha near Kiev. Are they still involved in Ukraine?
Yeah, as far as I know, they still play a role, but not as sort of an independent unit that was controlled as it was with the Wagner Group under Prigogine. When they were at their largest in Ukraine, they were operating relatively independent or at least as sort of one coherent group.
And from the best of my knowledge, that's not the case as it looks right now. Either they have been sort of put under the Ministry of Defense's forces, sort of embedded in the official structure, or they are operating. Some are also, to the best of my knowledge, still operating also in Belarus, also training forces there.
So has Wagner sort of ceased to exist independently, I suppose, and been enveloped into Russia's forces around the world? It hasn't really ceased to exist. It still exists, however, sort of in a very different form than we knew it under the leadership of Yevgeny Prigozhin. The Wagner Group is most present now in the Central African Republic and in Mali, but
where I think where it's being sort of kept as a brand I think I would see it mostly as a brand it's been sort of there's been
been a transition into this the new Africa Corps that has been taken over the Africa missions but the transition is sort of not complete if you want to say it like that because the Wagner Group is still like the Wagner Group brand and former Wagner Group fighters are still present and active under sort of the Wagner Group umbrella.
And what role are they playing in Africa then? Because to my mind, they're not fighting wars in quite the same way that they are in Ukraine for Russia. Mm-hmm.
Some analysts have called what the Africa Corps and also which is a copy of what the Wagner Group was doing, that they are providing regime survival packages. And I think that's also part of what was actually one of the Wagner Group's selling points, that they could provide both sort of regime packages
military regime support and military regime sort of security. And then at the same time also provide information operations or sort of information guidance in terms of how to affect or how to try to control at least sort of domestic information spheres.
to the benefit of sitting regimes or sitting heads of states.
And then also providing at times sort of political or sociologists who could also try to make sure that sitting heads of governments could also stay longer. And then all of that, at least the Wagner Group model, then sort of prescribed or what they did often was that all of that was then traded with rights to...
natural resources, to extract natural resources from the countries, which meant that the cost for the sitting heads of states were not as high because they could, in some cases, they would also pay, but then also pay through sort of the extraction of natural resources. And to a large extent, some analysts describe that the Africa Corps is doing, providing sort of similar, a similar model
And I think that's also very much a benefit to how they can use these groups in terms of simply using Russian forces. And that money from those natural resources, where does it all go? I mean, is that enriching Vladimir Putin to pay for his war in Ukraine? That's a very good question. And it's actually something that we don't know a lot about because it's quite difficult to follow the money, so to speak.
Sort of my best sort of guess or my best analysis would be both. And so I think in terms of what the Wagner Group was doing, at least some of it would go back into the company business.
And some would probably go back to the Russian state. I mean, and some analysts have pointed to the fact that extraction of natural resources have given such a large reserve in Russia that they have been able to better counter or better sort of counter Western sanctions after the war in Ukraine, of course. Karen, do you think Wagner is still of use to Russia in terms of achieving its goals on the world stage?
I'm not really sure. It depends because I think the Wagner Group, at least how the Wagner Group functioned in many countries in Africa, it sort of made it possible for Russia to achieve their goals while, of course, having this arm's length principle, this sort of plausible deniability that in the end with the Wagner Group got very implausible.
But it made it possible to achieve this sort of foreign policy successes through the Wagner Group. And I think it's not necessarily now easier with the Africa Corps because the Corps is much more related or linked, much closer linked to the Russian state.
But of course, I mean, it is an important tool still for achieving these foreign policy relations with African states. So, I mean, it's an important tool, I would say, continuously. And I suppose just finally, Karen, looking to the future, do you think that the Kremlin will keep using the Wagner Group?
It's difficult, of course, to tell about the future, but yes, at least for some time, I think so. There are benefits to this model, clear benefits to this model that I think they will keep using these forces one way or the other.
But I think also what is becoming increasingly clear with the Africa Corps now is that they are, of course, competing for resources over also Russia's war in Ukraine. That's actually dragging, taking a lot of resources, military resources away.
out of Russia. So I think in the end, it also depends what are the resources that Russia can put into these groups in order to also get the benefits out. But I think sort of the model in itself, I mean, my best guess would be that we will see this model continue for a while.
Karen, thank you. That is Karen Philippa Larsen from the Danish Institute of International Studies. Of course, Russia in Africa isn't the only example of a major country wanting to mine the resources of others. The US has finally agreed its deal with Ukraine, of course, signed last week. We analysed what's in it for both countries. On May 1st, our episode was called US-Ukraine Minerals Deal, a win-win. Do scroll back and listen.
For now, though, that is it from us. Thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. We'll see you tomorrow.
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