Israel-Iran: Can War Be Won With Air Power Alone?
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European talks with Iran failed to break an impasse as Israel signals that the war could be a long one.

Plus, as the conflict plays out mostly in the air, what does it mean for how it might end? There are some precedents, but this is virtually unique in that two states are going at each other with virtually only air power. And how U.S. casual restaurant chains are planning to stage a comeback. It's Friday, June 20th. I'm Alex Ocella for The Wall Street Journal. This is the PM edition of What's News? The top headlines and business stories that move the world today.

We begin tonight's show with the latest on the war between Iran and Israel. Talks between Iranian and top European officials in Geneva failed to break an impasse and to move Iran any closer to the concessions it would need to make to halt the fighting over its nuclear program. Arab and European officials briefed on the talks said that Iran continued to insist on the right to enrich uranium, adding that Iran won't re-enter nuclear negotiations with the U.S. until Israel's attacks stop.

Israel has shown no signs of being ready to stop a campaign it began a week ago, with surprise airstrikes and intelligence operations that targeted Iranian military leaders, nuclear sites, and air defenses.

And Israel's top general said today that the country is ready for a prolonged campaign to degrade Iran's nuclear program. In remarks to reporters this afternoon, President Trump said that Europe is not going to be able to help resolve the conflict between Iran and Israel and that Iran wants to talk to the U.S. He added that he isn't inclined to press Israel to stop airstrikes so negotiations with Iran can continue.

The U.S. is racing to reinforce Israel's defenses. It's sending more warships capable of shooting down ballistic missiles to the region as Iranian attacks drain Israel's stocks of interceptors. An additional U.S. Navy destroyer arrived in the eastern Mediterranean today, joining three others in the area and two in the Red Sea. A defense official said that the ships are operating close enough to Israel to be able to intercept missiles fired by Iran.

Iran and Israel are conducting the war in a unique way, as both sides have exchanged blows via air power alone. Since last week, Israeli warplanes have hit targets across Iran, testing the limits of what air power alone can achieve in a conflict.

Israeli policymakers appear to be counting on the ability of air power to win the day without ground operations. But conventional wisdom among military thinkers has long said that missiles and bombs are seldom enough to achieve victory on their own. For more, I'm joined now by WSJ South Europe Bureau Chief Marcus Walker.

Marcus, why is Israel relying on airstrikes? Distance and geography and the fact that there are about four countries in between Iran and Israel, and that really constrains what they can use. It means that this war is an exchange of Israeli air power, principally planes, but also drones.

and some use of small special forces or intelligence teams on the ground to direct air forces. And from the Iranian side, it limits them to long-range missiles, ballistic missiles, and also long-range drones. So this is virtually unique in that two states are going at each other with virtually only air power.

At this stage in the game, two weeks in, what are the goals for both Israel and Iran? Iran's goals are pretty simple. They want to prevent any serious threat to the regime, and they want to preserve their freedom to have a nuclear weapons program and to keep on doing uranium enrichment, including under any diplomatic settlement that might emerge. On Israel's case, it's a little bit more ambiguous. The Israelis, above all, want to make sure that Iran doesn't get a nuclear weapon.

But they could do that in three main ways. One is if they physically destroy enough of Iran's nuclear program and uranium enrichment and other intermediate steps that you need to turn uranium into a bomb, that Iran would be unable to make a bomb or it would take Iran many, many years to repair the physical damage.

The second way is if they coerce the regime in Tehran into signing a deal that renounces uranium enrichment and a nuclear weapons program. And the third, which is certainly the most ambitious and perhaps the less realistic approach,

But Israeli policymakers have talked about bringing about regime change in Iran. And of course, their great hope is that the theocratic regime would collapse and take its nuclear ambitions with it. It's not quite clear what the Israelis think they can achieve. It almost looks as if they're going to try a bit of everything and hope that one of those things happens. So given that this is an air war, at least so far, what does this mean for how this might end?

So it could end with one of those three successful scenarios for Israel coming about. But the fourth scenario is that you get an inconclusive outcome, that Israel inflicts a lot of damage, but not enough to stop the Iranians from pursuing their nuclear ambitions, even if it delays them and sets them back and forces them to rebuild. So it would be physically indecisive. Politically also, perhaps Israel doesn't manage to force Iran to sign a deal that actually renounces uranium enrichment.

And the regime holds on. That was WSJ South Europe Bureau Chief Marcus Walker. Thanks, Marcus. Thank you. Oil prices cooled after President Trump held off on taking action against Tehran. As we mentioned in this morning's show, the White House said late yesterday that Trump would make a decision on whether to strike Iran within two weeks.

Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, fell about 2%, mostly reversing yesterday's sharp gains. Meanwhile, major U.S. indexes ended the day mostly lower. The Dow rose about 0.1%, while the S&P 500 slipped roughly 0.2%, and the Nasdaq dipped around 0.5%.

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled today that American citizens injured during terrorist attacks and the survivors of those who were killed could bring lawsuits seeking monetary damages from Palestinian authorities in U.S. courts.

In a unanimous decision, the court said a 2019 law meant to facilitate lawsuits against the Palestinian Authority and Palestine Liberation Organization, two political entities representing the Palestinian people, didn't violate the constitution. The ruling was a victory for a group of families who have sought to hold the entities liable for six shootings and bombings between 2002 and 2004 in the Jerusalem area.

And a federal judge in New Jersey ordered the release of Mahmoud Khalil more than three months after the former Columbia student was first detained by immigration officials. The judge granted Khalil's request for release while his case proceeds. Neither the Department of Justice nor the Department of Homeland Security immediately responded to a request for comment. Coming up, how American sit-down restaurant chains are planning to get diners back. That's after the break. ♪

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Casual dining chains like Red Lobster and Cracker Barrel are fighting to get more Americans into their booths. Last year, U.S. restaurant bankruptcies hit the highest level in decades, excluding 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic upended the industry. According to records from BankruptcyData.com, the pace of bankruptcies has slowed this year, but the shakeout in casual dining continues.

Heather Hadden, who covers restaurants for The Journal, joins me now with more. Heather, why are so many casual dining chains in trouble? Last year was a really hard year for casual dining chains.

traffic for some of these chains had just been falling for a while. And we saw a lot of them actually fall for bankruptcy. So some of these ones that maybe had a lot of debt on their books and who had had to raise their prices to respond to inflation and lost a lot of customers in the process. And even healthy chains have been closing unprofitable restaurants. Some of that is just broader issues with the industry. There's a lot of restaurants. There's a lot of choice for people these days. They have a lot of

different newer places they can go to. And so to fight in this climate, you've really had to prove your worth to customers again. Some casual dining chains like Chili's actually are doing pretty well in terms of traffic. What are they doing differently than some of these other places? What Chili's really did was spend money, so invest in making their service better and making their atmosphere better. And

And then they really ramped up everyday deals and really put a lot of money in advertising them. So a combination of better service, better environment, good deals, some viral moments have really worked well for them, but not every chain can do that. So for some of the chains that are struggling a little bit more, what are they doing to try to bring more people in? Red Lobster is one of the chains that filed for bankruptcy last year, which helped eliminate a lot of their debt when they have new investment and management projects.

And so they're trying to take a page from, say, a Chili's by investing in their infrastructure, just making their restaurants look better, operate better, and then trying to thread the needle between deals that will attract guests but also make money. How are these chains anticipating price increases from tariffs?

Some of them are worried about equipment. One asterisk to that actually is Red Lobster. They do import seafood, including their shrimp. So they have had to diversify their supply chain, look for new suppliers. And they said that they moved out of China. So that was a real area where they were exposed, which, you know, that's no small feat. That was WSJ reporter Heather Haddon. Thank you, Heather. Thanks so much.

Oracle is unveiling a program that it says will help vendors more easily sell technology to the Department of Defense, a process that has long been tricky for smaller businesses that lack the structural advantages that major defense contractors have. The program, called the Oracle Defense Ecosystem, is structured to help smaller companies break through those challenges. Reporter Belle Lynn told our Tech News Briefing podcast what Oracle stands to gain from this.

Oracle really does present this program as a win-win for the Pentagon and for the companies that it's helping. But at the same time, like their executives told me, it's not a charity. And so they are really aiming to entrench their cloud platform within the DoD sort of technology ecosystem.

The Oracle already has this major cloud contract along with a number of other cloud players like Amazon and Microsoft and Google with the Pentagon. And so it's sort of already within the ecosystem, but it wants to further entrench its cloud platform because it wants these smaller companies to build on its cloud platform and then sell to the Pentagon in return. For more from Bell, listen to today's episode of Tech News Briefing. ♪

And finally, for millions of Americans, this weekend is going to be a hot one. The National Weather Service says that starting today, a heat wave will hit the Plains region and will move across the Midwest and central states to the East Coast by next week. Cities including Denver, St. Louis, Detroit, New York, and Philadelphia will experience multiple days of temperatures exceeding 90 degrees Fahrenheit, exacerbated by high humidity in many of these areas.

By Tuesday, a stretch of the country from eastern Iowa through Ohio, Pennsylvania, and to parts of New York and Washington, D.C., will face extreme levels of heat-related risk, a rare indication by the National Weather Service. Extreme heat and humidity create health risks and can cause conditions including heat stress and heat stroke. Forecasters said people should limit their activities outdoors and stay hydrated. And that's what's news for this week.

Tomorrow, you can look out for our weekly markets wrap-up, What's News in Markets. Then on Sunday, we're looking at Iran's options in the war with Israel, the pressures from the Iranian public, and what the future may hold for Tehran. That's in What's News Sunday. And we'll be back with our regular show on Monday morning.

Today's show was produced by Anthony Bansi with supervising producer Michael Cosmedes. Michael LaValle wrote our theme music. Aisha Al-Muslim is our development producer. Scott Salloway and Chris Dinsley are our deputy editors. And Falana Patterson is the Wall Street Journal's head of news audio. I'm Alex Osola. Stay cool out there, and thanks for listening. Viking, committed to exploring the world in comfort.

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