What has made China and the US agree to roll back tariffs?
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Hello and welcome to World Today, I'm Ding Hen in Beijing. Coming up: US and China agree to drastically roll back tariffs and trade breakthrough China has reported bumper exports for the month of April

Turkey says it is ready to host Ukraine-Russia peace talks in the city of Istanbul. And Philippines vote in midterm elections amid Marcos' dutiful political showdown. To listen to this episode again or to catch up on our previous episodes, you can download our podcast by searching World Today.

China and the United States have announced tariff modification measures to ease their trade tensions. The decision followed a two-day high-level meeting on economic and trade issues in Geneva. A joint statement is emphasizing the need for a sustainable, long-term and mutually beneficial economic and trade relationship. The discussion was led by Chinese Vice Premier He Lingfeng and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Benson.

The Chinese vice premier has also met with World Trade Organization Director-General Ngozi Akonjo-Iweala in the city of Geneva as well, reaffirming about China's commitment to multilateralism and free trade.

So for more, joining us now on the line is Professor Qu Qiang from Mingzhu University of China. Thank you very much for joining us. Thank you. So, Professor, basically, President Donald Trump's 20% functional-related tax levies on China will stay.

However, in the meantime, each side of China and the United States has agreed to lower the so-called reciprocal tariffs on the other by 115 percentage points for 90 days. This effectively means that the U.S. will temporarily lower its overall tariffs on Chinese goods from $1.

from 145% down to 30%. That's pretty dramatic. While Chinese side will cut its levies on parts of the American imports from 125% to 10%. So first of all, what do you make of this very specific result from this meeting in Geneva?

Well, I think the Geneva meeting is actually very much welcomed by all of us. And actually, I myself are, you know, among the preparation team for this meeting. So I know more details about this meetings and what's to come, you know, in the next 90 days. But basically, I think this is actually a very, very good one. I think through this talk and the whole

the whole tension has been eased among global trade, not only between China and America. I mean, the whole global trade tension has been eased. Everybody has achieved the common sense and, you know, this common sense can be amplified to, you know, more elsewhere. And, you know, tariff has been lowered and, you know, the supply chain has been stabilized.

confidence for the investment and the market expectation and also confidence for the enterprises and the consumers are all stabilized and boosted. Take a look at the both side stock market. Today, both China and America are welcoming a full range surge in stock prices. It shows that everybody loves this idea. And also, I think more than that,

uh... shows that uh... you know both sides are hiding from some behind the table that is they don't want to have a fight that you know at the bottom of our uh... they want to have actually have a decoupling this is just a show not at the trial and uh... you know just the uh... how long can we laugh and everybody's feet that chinese economy is more resilient of the m

Lots of people have been expected. And also in America, you'll be seeing that the harbor has been emptied, the supermarket shelf has been emptied, and also the drop prices and the grocery prices has been surging up more than 20% or 30%. And some special products even be double the prices.

So I don't think American people really want this deal in exchange for the tariff. So this decoupling actually has been a fuss and now has been ended at least for now. And also I think more than that, both sides have been tearing down the wall.

No communication. The radio silence period of time has been going up, and we have established the official communication mechanism. Actually, it's not only for the tariff. It's for a lot of wide-range economic issues. So I think this is very, very good to avoid further escalation of

But also, I think we still have uncertainties like fentanyl, you know, like after 90 days, what's going to happen? And also about rare earths and about how it's going to happen after, you know, the tariff rules and also about the specific entry rules like, you know, IPR, like rare earths, like finance, technology.

So I think we still have lots of things to look into in the 90 days. Yeah. So the two sides also agreed to establish a mechanism to continue discussions in the future. What do you think future discussions will touch upon?

Well, I think in the future we're going to talk about lots of issues, like we just talked about after 90 days and what's going to happen. And personally, we know that from the American team, while Mr. Besant and his deputies are talking about the rebalance of the Chinese-American economy, actually they have achieved lots of common understanding with Prime Minister He Li-ke-peng.

And they understand - well, this is very good news from Mr. Besson, too - that they understand America want to make America great again, but first they need to make China great again. Why is that? Because they find out if they want to introduce back the manufacturing capacity into America, they will find out most of the capacity need to be helped with, you know, by China. For example, if you need infrastructure, if you need mechanics, if you need engineers, and then you need China.

So China is actually the most reliable and powerful friends for America to be great again. And vice versa, I think China also needs America in upgrading its technology and its assumptions. So I think this partnership is actually mutually beneficial for everyone. And I'm very glad that during this meeting, Mr. Basin and also

China's delegation will understand that. And I think the second things that we're going to talk about in the future is about what I mentioned, specific regions like fentanyl, like IPR, like technology sanctions. This is not covered during this meeting about semiconductors, about the chips, etc. And also how they can rebalance both sides' economies because America wants

to reduce debt and have manual factories and job back. China wants to upgrade its consumption and to be more domestic consumption reliant. So I think they will have a lot of things to help each other and to talk to each other in the future 90 days. So by the way, what do you think this meeting in Geneva tells us about the Donald Trump administration's actual mindset with regard to economic decoupling versus rebalancing of trade?

Well, number one, it showed that the Trump administration, especially Mr. Trump, is a very shrewd man, but he is a shrewd businessman. So I think in his understanding, the business benefit, you know, the most direct benefit economically is what he's seeking. So he just wants to take some advantage, but he does not actually want to sabotage the political relations and also the confidence between those two countries, as well as for the stability of the whole world.

So I think that's a reason why he very shrewdly and very wisely understands what's going on because domestic prices are going up, jobs are losing, economic pressure is coming. And also, people don't like these things because we've been seeing that many Democrats – I'm sorry, not only Democrats but also Republican voters –

are voting against Trump right now. His poll has been a historic low after 100 days. So here's the problem for him, he understands that, and also about political reasons. The Democrats are quite like Bulldog. He's under lots of political pressures, so he doesn't want to waste energy on these fronts of battle.

That's the reason why he wants to get out of the trouble with the trade and focus on domestic issues. And also, what we understand is that he has a lot of trouble trying to rebalance the American economy, because the American economy's imbalance is not caused by China. It's been caused by America and its domestic structure. China is just an alibi. So, he will have to, on one hand, to decouple, so-called decouple with China, or tariff war with China, but also, on the other hand,

He needs China to overcome the lots of lots of pathologies within America when he tried to put on some surgery on this eel body. So that's the problem and all the dilemma he's been struggling in between. So I think this is not going to be easy, and he is having another problem.

you know, two years ahead of him or one and a half years. It's not going to be very easy for him. The final question before we let you go and we still have like 90 seconds. How do you think China is going to shift its foreign trades in the future, regardless of what kind of trade deals it might be able to reach with the Trump administration?

Well, I think number one is domestic resilience and the gross power. Look, China is the second largest economy in the whole world, and also by PPP, it's probably the largest economy in the whole world.

And this time when tariff war is coming, China just stands still and faces all the pressures and not kneeling down. Because you see Chinese stock market is stable, Chinese people are stable, and you know, old numbers in China are stable. So it shows that self-reliance is very important. Secondly is to diversify your supply chain and the market. That's what China is doing right now about our partners, our CEP partners. And this diversification has been showing

on the third of the Q1 trade surplus, showing that China can actually do it without so much of the reliance on the American market. And also, thirdly, I think in the future, we're going to have to strengthen the South-South nations' rule

and role in the whole globalization and trade to make them the important partners and also based on their power and support to redefine global trade system and a multilateral spirit in many platforms like WTO, like the CPTPP, and also APAC, and also BRICS country organization, etc.

Thank you very much for joining us. Professor Qu Qiang from Mingzhu University of China. You are listening to World Today. Stay tuned. You are listening to World Today. I'm Dinghan in Beijing. Latin American and Caribbean countries are increasingly looking to cooperation with China as a way to reduce the influence of longstanding U.S. doctrines, especially as Washington's sweeping tariff wars reshape global trade dynamics.

Earl Bosque, former press secretary to the Prime Minister of St. Lucia and President of St. Lucia-China Friendship Association, spoke ahead of an upcoming ministerial meeting between China and the community of Latin American and Caribbean states.

Busca sees China's three global initiatives as offering the region an alternative path, one grounded in mutual benefit, respect for national sovereignty, and South-South cooperation. He says there is also room for even closer ties in terms of climate resilience, energy innovation, and cultural exchange. Here's more from my colleague Ge'an Na's conversation with him.

Mr. Bosque, you've followed the Caribbean's foreign policy shifts for years, and you've had a front row seat to major changes in international relations, right? So when you think back on your experiences with China, are there any particular moments or encounters that really stayed with you?

Yes, there are many that time will not allow me to complete, but my lasting ones I can recall immediately are my several visits to the Forbidden City, the only ones that I took a maglev train from Beijing to Shanghai, visiting Hong Kong for one day where I was able to observe that there's no space for anything to be built anywhere, the way the bunds

in Shanghai, that region helped reshape the city over time. And my favorite province in China, I will admit, is Xiamen in Fujian province from the simple standpoint that it's the most tropical and Caribbean part of China. In my experience with sea and sand, beaches, hills and valleys, trees and flowers like every Caribbean nation and from where we can also see the Taiwan region of China.

Like every other Caribbean region I said, it has the features that we grew up with. And we also, in my case, can recall several visits to Sichuan, which is China's spice capital, where one can recall seeing spices sold like little colorful mountains on roadsides. My memory was a conference crew.

hosted by the Chinese People's Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries. And that took place over three days on the Yangtze River with visits to the Three Gorges Dam. I spent a day in Chongqing, a city of hills and mountains. My regrets.

include not having visited a major media house, especially CGTN's out-of-the-box headquarters. I didn't expect you to have such rich experiences in China. So building on that personal perspective, let's look at the bigger picture here. You are speaking from a quite unique position, coming from Saint Lucia, a country that has yet to establish diplomatic relations with China.

How would you describe China's approach to working with Latin American and Caribbean countries from that vantage point? And what's that support from the way other major powers engage with the region? Well, certainly I think

that China has been going on a good track in its ties with Latin America and the Caribbean. And I can see that what is taking place is implementation, even in advance, of the principles around President Xi Jinping's global cooperation and security initiatives launched in March 2023, if I recall correctly.

So we are seeing the global cooperation initiative taking place and the global security initiative, while it has not been put in place as designed, the current state of international diplomacy is

Losing out to militarism is one that we have to also take into consideration. But certainly building global development cooperation with more investment in new areas in this region, including, for example, agro and energy industries, health and education, science and technology, environmental sustenance and climate change adaptation.

In terms of other powers, what we are seeing is that other powers seek to impose their political will on us, their neighbors in Latin America and the Caribbean as part of old doctrines, 200-year-old doctrines.

others also seek to shape the ties according to geopolitical considerations. Other powers seek to dictate to independent states in the Caribbean, particularly and including the 14 Caribbean community CARICOM member states, the majority of which are small islands, dictating to them what their foreign affairs should be using sanctions to punish those who seek to

delink from the world bodies the control, like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Other powers are consolidating the control of the region's energy resources in Guyana and Venezuela, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago and Grenada. For example, BP and Shell are fighting over who's going to control the resources in Trinidad and Tobago. ExxonMobil and Hess are in Guyana.

Chevron is in Venezuela. Total Energy is a French company that has exploited Africa, is in Suriname. But Washington opposed a Russian company's involvement in Trinidad and Tobago through sanctions, while warning Caribbean nations to be careful about building ties with China and raising concerns about African countries or companies that indicate interest in helping the Caribbean express.

or its energy resources. So I think the bottom line is that what we have emerging and continuing to grow in the region is evolving cooperation model in which China cooperation has evolved well in both Latin America and the Caribbean regions, consistent with the principles of mutual benefit between developing nations, not

top down but across and between nations also reflecting principles of the global cooperation initiative along the modern silk roads to different parts of the region through the bellerton road initiative so i see continuity and evolution of a

So now looking ahead to current development, the fourth China and Community of Latin America in the Caribbean States Forum is seen by many as a fresh opportunity to deepen ties, especially at a time when Washington's sweeping tariff war

are reshaping global trade dynamics. So what are your hopes or expectations coming out of this forum? And from your perspective, which issues are most important to Caribbean countries right now?

Well, I have high expectations. Caribbean nations are represented, including St. Lucia, which has formal ties with the Taiwan region of China, but certainly is represented by our ambassador to CELAC, who arrived in Beijing for that meeting. That summit, I have high expectations for it from the standpoint that leaders, I expect, will

find common ground to address issues of mutual concern, especially the consequences of the first 100 days of the Trump administration. And among the most pressing issues, I think I can point to a couple or three. One, the effects of the policies of the U.S. administration on Latin America and the Caribbean today and tomorrow in the context of

of the new global trade war that is unfolding, if not stopped in time. Secondly, finding common grounds to advance cooperation in keeping with new changes in global trade and cooperation and minimizing of international aid. For example, the US has closed down US aid, a $40 billion budget institution that sent aid around the world. That has been closed down. The budget has been moved to the

United States State Department. We also see European countries reducing their foreign aid to developing countries in order to increase their military spending, particularly in the context of the war in Ukraine. So the third thing I would say, we would need to look at strengthening international cooperation with China and between the states that have ties with Beijing

on projects of mutual regional interest, like fighting climate change, increasing cooperation between small island developing states, emergency disaster assistance mechanisms, working together to trace historical ties between China and the Latin American Caribbean.

and region and this latter one is certainly an integral part of the global cooperation initiative which is aimed at transcending the possibilities where nations might consider themselves better off or even exceptional. Two other ideas that I would put and expect would be that they would identify new areas of investment particularly in manufacturing of primary and indigenous raw materials which are currently being exported

and re-imported to the Caribbean and Latin America as refined products. Well, we can do that between Latin America and the Caribbean rather than our region having to import from Europe and North America. We could also finally look at

that the China Friendship Associations in CELAC member states and the Federation representing Latin American Caribbean nations with friendship associations, they must all work together with this Chinese People's Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries, in my view, to better highlight and promote people-to-people friendship and

Building on that, as you earlier mentioned, with the global economy becoming more uncertain, we are hearing a lot about how China and Latin America and the Caribbean states are finding new ways to complement each other, especially in trade and investment. So do you see this as a new kind of thousands cooperation taking shape?

Yes, certainly. I think, like I said earlier, what is unveiling, continuing to widen and develop and deepen is a new model for South-South cooperation. Also, the Global Cooperation Initiative taking shape. That cooperation initiative is...

to not only bring people closer in friendship, but also get together in addressing mutual problems, especially, for example, the problems of small island states in the Caribbean. I can give you a practical example involving St. Lucia, which does not have ties as yet, but the Yantai City Small Island Zero Carbon Initiative, which was launched last year in Azerbaijan and has the support

of the government in Beijing sent a delegation to the entire Caribbean, spending one day meeting different forces, government, non-government agencies in the Caribbean, where they were able to share the experiences of Yantai City and the Changdao Islands.

Those were shared with the Caribbean last month. And all of that opens the way for cooperation along new areas, for example, like desalination. We saw the possibility exist in Yantai for desalinating seawater at a rate of being able to save 700 out of every thousand gallons and to be able to transform the other 300 into salt water.

and fertilizer. So you have 100% utilization of the seawater that surrounds islands, not only in the Caribbean, but around the world. And Yantai City has those solutions, which they have now shared with every Caribbean country. We also would like to see the Chinese National Overseas Oil Corporation, which is operating in Guyana, will begin to look at the possibilities of helping other Caribbean islands to be able to search for oil and gas.

and other subterranean minerals because this is already happening with the European and American companies fighting each other in order to be able to control. So we need also to develop health systems and services to enhance global development cooperation in the area of international health. These are some of my expectations.

That was Earl Busquet, president of the St. Lucia China Friendship Association, talking with my colleague Ge'an Na. Coming up, China has reported bumper April exports. You are listening to World Today, I'm Ding Hen in Beijing. We'll be back after a short break. You are back with World Today, I'm Ding Hen in Beijing.

Official data shows China's foreign trade rose by 5.6% in April over a year ago. China's exports rose by 9.3%, while imports increased 0.8%. In the first four months, China's total goods imports and exports expanded by 2.4%.

The strong performance is driven by deepening regional trade ties. For example, ASEAN remained as China's biggest trading partner, accounting for 16.8% of total foreign trade value from January to April, and China's trade with the country's third-largest partner, the United States, contracted in the first four months, while trade with the European Union increased by 1.1%.

For more, my colleague Zhao Yang spoke with Dr. Zhou Mi from the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation.

So, Dr. Zhoumi, China's foreign trade has shown remarkable resilience against the U.S. tariffs. And we've seen the exports in April surged by 9.3 percent in yuan-denominated terms. And so why did this happen? How do you explain the resilience of China's exports? Well, as you mentioned, the U.S. tariff has put a lot of uncertainty in the global trade. So in my understanding, maybe there are three factors that have very important

important impacts on China's export and imports. The first is that China's manufacturing bases are still very strong, so we can provide so many different kinds of products to the world to meet their demand. I think that even with the tariff, I don't think there are a lot of impact on China's ability to produce those products.

And the second, I think that is also coming from the market, the demand. Well, as for the demand, I think the world is trying to face the challenges from the United States. So they put tariffs on almost every country and region in the world. So they have to worry about how can they have a resilient supply of those products. And China is

definitely one of the very best choices. And third one, I think is also because that China and other countries are doing quite well on the, you know, enforcement of our agreements, commitments on the trade facilitation and improve the connections among the different regions. And all of these three factors are very important pillars for China to have a stable and resilient import and export in the first four months of this year.

And in the first four months of this year, ASEAN remains China's top trading partner with a trade value growing 9.2% year on year. So what role do you think ASEAN plays in China's foreign trade?

Well, I think maybe from two aspects. The first one is that ASEAN countries are one of China's main trading partners. I mean, that is not only to try to do something to do with other countries except for ourselves.

So, at the end, China will have a better integration in the previous several decades and we have improving the integration of the market connections and abilities for the supply chain cross-borderly. So, in this regard, I think that the recovery of the economy in these regions has helped the trade to strengthen even in such kind of circumstances.

aspect is coming from as an integral part. I think that China and ASEAN are providing the world with so many different kind of manufacturing products and that is also helpful for enhance the world's abilities to face against the uncertainties.

So China and I think countries we are complementary partners and I mean that is helpful for both of us to try to make better use of the human resources and also the manufacturing abilities to address the uncertainty and some of this

higher tariffs imposed by the United States. And the EU was the second largest partner as the trade value grew 1.1%. So what factors do you think are contributing to this resilience in trade between China and the EU?

Well, EU is still a very big one, but compared with other parts of the world, they are facing too many difficulties and challenges. First of all, they are facing a lot of pressure from the United States, and they are trying

take their enterprises out from EU to go to United States. And second, I think they are facing many challenges from the energy supply. So the inflation will be one of the priorities for them to resolve. While China and the EU will have so many complimentary advantages by both sides, though a lot of Chinese enterprises are

helping the EU to address their supply chain issues and the pressure on the prices. So EU is really our important partner of China. While on the other hand, I will say that China also doing a lot of businesses with EU like from France, we imported so many agricultural products from France and from other countries we have

very important and a large market for the things like the automobiles from Germany and other countries. So I think that trade between our two parts are really resilient because of our complementary advantages and both of us are trying to fulfill our commitments in the multilateral system with

stick to the principles and we have a similar understanding about the World Trade Organization and that is helpful for us to strengthen the cooperation between us. And people talk about China's trade with Belt and Road countries, with ASEAN, EU, with Middle East and Latin America. So how practical is it for China to diversify its trading destinations from the United States to other partners?

I think that the other world is trying to catch up with the leading partners in the world. I think the regions you have mentioned, they are really trying to increase their speed of growth in the economy. So for China, we are not just trying to give their support

by the trades like the manufacturer products. We are also encourage enterprises to invest in those countries to be helpful for their industrialization and the urbanization. And in this regard, I will say that diversification will be even stronger based on their abilities to

to develop in the global value chain. So the corporation are really care about what they really want, not just from China's attitude. I think that the corporation have a very good and a solid basis for both of us to try to improve the interconnectivity under the belt and road regions and also a lot of

more diversified and different requirements by the different parts of the world. For example, China's export manufacturing hub in Yiwu saw a surge, a 109% surge in exports of Christmas goods in the first quarter. Despite the US tariffs and trade stress, many Yiwu traders report minimum disruption to their businesses.

So why has the impact on this export hub been so limited, do you think?

Yeah, as you mentioned the example of the Christmas, I would say that people from the European, from the Western countries, they have put several months earlier than before, than the previous years to book the products from Yiwu. I think that is because Yiwu is a very important trade hub for the small commodities and they are providing with the different and more diversified products with a higher quality and lower price.

So I would say that is the advantages of them. So generally speaking, I don't think that the world economy is slowing down because of the tar risk. While the demand is still there, so the EU is providing a better product and trying to

to make the people feel more comfortable about the uncertainty. So this is their advantages and that is also coming from their very sensitive ways of addressing the demands of the market. They are looking at what's the market really want and they are providing some products accordingly. So this is a kind of two ways reactions between EU providers and the world market. I believe that is also the way why they have a very

good performance even under the stature of uncertainties. And private enterprises accounted for nearly 57% of China's total trade. So how do you describe the role of private sector in China's foreign trade? And what do you think about the adaptability of China's private exporters?

Well, they are really important for China's foreign trade because they are providing so many possibilities. I think that most of the private sectors are really working hard. They are trying to make the better use of the information and improve their competitiveness in the much more diversified directions. Well, for this kind of pressures, I would say that the enterprises, especially from private sectors, they are suffered a lot by the uncertainties.

other, from another angle, I would say that they are also changing very quickly. So in the previous decades, we have seen that private sectors are improving and updating their businesses according to the change of the outer environment from China. And they are trying to grasp the best choices and trying to work

hard on the even very slim profits product. So the private sectors in China in the recent years, we are seeing the percentage of those trades from them has increased continuously. It means that they feel more confident about abilities to grasp the opportunities for the global trade and they are working hard on that. So the private sectors will also be one of our advantages to solve the problems of the employment, the tax

the tariffs and also the fiscal income of the Chinese government. And they're really helping to improve the resilience of the global supply chain. And that is what the world, I mean, the trading partners really need from us. So we encourage those enterprises to be more active, doing some businesses according to their advantages and also addressing the demand of the trading partners and trying to do more social responsibilities to help

the communities in the other countries. Dr. Zhou Mi from the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation talking to Zhao Yang. Coming up, Turkey says it is ready to host the Russia-Ukraine peace talks in the city of Istanbul. This is World Today. We'll be back.

You are listening to World Today, I'm Dinghan in Beijing. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says Ankara is ready to host the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine again. Erdogan delivered a message in phone calls with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin and French counterpart Emmanuel Macron on Sunday. Putin on Sunday proposed direct talks with Ukraine aimed at ending the war.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has also said that he will be waiting to meet with Mr. Putin for talks in Turkey. Over the weekend, major European powers demanded that Russia agree to an unconditional 30-day ceasefire or face fresh new sanctions. So joining us now on the line is Dr. Tim Anderson, director of the Center for Counter-Hedromonic Studies, a Sydney-based think tank.

Thank you very much for joining us, Dr. Tim Anderson. First of all, why do you think Russia and Ukraine look to hold peace talks at this point?

I think a fair amount of the incentive is coming from the withdrawal of Washington from the arming of Ukraine against Russia. Basically, the fact that Donald Trump has split from his European counterparts and is clearly pushing for some sort of end to the war has provided an incentive for Kiev to take part in the talks again. So why do you think it is Turkey that is currently offering to hold peace talks?

Well, it was Turkey that held them a little over three years ago in April 2022. And there was a provisional agreement back at that time. But you may recall that it seems that the Boris Johnson from the UK and President Biden from the US agreed.

instructed Zelensky to abandon those talks and to keep fighting and assured him that he would win and assured him of virtually unlimited backing, basically. So, Turkey being a member of NATO has an important strategic role there and also it borders the Black Sea. So, it's close and it's embedded with the NATO states that are engaged in supporting Ukraine. So, I think it's played an important role in the past and

Mr. Erdogan is trying to do the same thing again now. So, by the way, what is your understanding of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's position that he will be ready for talks with the Russian side, but only after Moscow agreed to a 30-day ceasefire?

I think there's some sort of positioning going on where Zelensky is trying to suggest that he's got some sort of control of matters here. In fact, he's losing badly on the battlefield. The Ukrainian losses have been terrible in recent months. And he's trying to assert a position that really distinguishes himself from simply giving in to what he sees as Russian demands. On the other hand, Russia is, of course,

very concerned not to lose the ground that they've gained with sacrifices over the last three years. So this question about whether the talks will happen during a ceasefire or before a ceasefire, or whether it was a three-day unilateral ceasefire by Russia during the victory celebrations of the victory over fascism in Moscow, or this 30-day ceasefire which Zelensky has talked about,

is semantics, but it's really a matter of positioning, I think. So what would a 30-day ceasefire, if it materializes, mean to Russia and Ukraine, respectively? I mean, the Russians, for their part, are concerned that

previous ceasefires have been abused by Kiev, basically, and that in particular, if you go back as far as 2015, the Minsk Two Agreements were really seen as an opportunity to try and build up Ukraine's strength to carry out another offensive or to

assail the Russians. So they're concerned about the losing momentum, I suppose, on the battlefield. Zelensky, for his part, as I said, is probably trying to position himself to suggest that he's making some ground or some initiatives there. He has some cards to play there. I think Donald Trump told him a few months ago that he doesn't have too many cards to play there because

Really, Kiev is being supported by NATO. It's really become a proxy war of NATO against Russia. And with Trump trying to end this on some sort of terms that looks good for Trump and his own image,

It's a difficult situation that the Ukrainians are in. So there's some sort of positioning going on, but I think the fact that both sides are willing to talk is a good sign. That's definitely a good sign, of course. In the meantime, we notice senior crumbling aide, Mr. Yuri Yushchenkov.

telling media that somehow the talks must take into account both an abandoned 2022 draft peace deal and the current situation on the ground. What do you make of the underlying message here?

Well, the message from Russia is that we already had many of these things ironed out. The fact that they didn't want Ukraine to be a part of NATO and with NATO weapons positioned on their borders and so on, they wanted relief for the Russian population in the southeast of what used to be Ukraine there. So a lot of those things have been gone over and the Russians will be probably saying, I told you so, in some part of these talks. The other part of it is the situation on the ground is that Russia has...

basically liberated from their point of view most of the Russian-speaking parts of the former southeast Ukraine. So they really are not going to, they're not very keen to unilaterally give up ground that they've paid in lives to gain. So

That's the message, really, I think, that the Russians are saying. The longer this goes on, the more ground you will lose, basically, because we are determined to defend our boundaries and the Russian people that used to live in southeast Ukraine. And let's talk about things from the basis of realities here. And I think the Trump administration has repeated some of those phrases, really, certainly in terms of freezing the front line effectively on the ground. Hmm.

And also, why do you think Russia's foreign ministry, for example, has openly suggested that there must be talks about the root causes of this Russia-Ukraine conflict before discussions regarding a ceasefire?

Well, the Russian position has been that they don't want a temporary ceasefire because they feel burned by that in the past with the Minsk Accords in 2015 and with some other ceasefires they've had in more recent times, which they say

Kiev has been abusing, trying to seize back some ground. Remember Kiev did that incursion into Kursk, into a part of Western Russia to try and hold on to some Russian territory to have a bargaining chip at the table. They lost that now. They were driven out of Kursk. So they're missing that bargaining chip that they have there. So the Russians for their part are saying, look,

We don't want to ceasefire when there's no real understanding about the fundamental issues. We want a permanent ceasefire. That's what the Russians have been saying. So if somehow, if peace talks can really take place in Turkey in the near future, let's put it this way, how much optimism should there be in terms of our expectation of the outcome of the talks?

I mean, there has to be some optimism because we've seen the Trump administration placing a great importance on resolving this conflict in one way or the other, but in a way that looks like Trump is contributing to some sort of successful outcome rather than simply retreating as his predecessor did in Afghanistan.

The problem is that some of the European states are committing large amounts of money and weapons to Ukraine to keep on going and pretending, as, for example, Ms. von der Leyen does, without any real evidence of it, to say that Ukraine can keep fighting and is going to win. And there's no evidence of that whatsoever. No realist analysts of the situation suggest that Ukraine is winning.

making any ground in recent months you know so um but there must be some optimism because zelinski must understand that um a lot of his support is is evaporating and if he doesn't make a deal soon there's not going to be much left of certainly eastern ukraine thank you very much for joining us dr tim anderson director of the center for counter-hegemonic studies

Coming up, Philippines vote in midterm elections amid Marcos Jr. Duterte political showdown. You're listening to World Today. Stay tuned.

You're back with World Today, I'm Dinghan in Beijing. In the Philippines, voting was held on Monday for the country's midterm elections. More than 18,000 positions of mayors, governors, lower house lawmakers, and senators were up for grabs. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. was not on the ballot. However, his policy agenda, his legacy, and influence over his succession in 2028 are at stake.

Both President Michael Jr. and Vice President Sarah Duterte have campaigned hard actually for their respective slates of candidates amidst their increasing and ongoing political rivalry. So joining us now on the line is Dr. Rong Ying, Chair Professor with the School of International Studies, Sichuan University. Thank you very much for joining us.

Thank you for having me. So in many ways, Dr. Rong, this election is seen as an informal referendum on the Marcos Jr. administration. How would you assess his administration's performance in domestic governance, especially on economy, since he assumed office?

Well, it is true. I think that despite the fact that Bomber Marcos, Marcos Jr. is not going to sort of a campaign, I mean, run for the election by 2028, because the constitution of the Philippines determines that it's just one term.

I think in general, it's going to be a sort of midterm election for him, for his presidency. And we have seen that his popularity has been declining. I mean, the latest sort of poll

has put him from, I mean, 30% something like that was sort of one 15, sort of less from previous one. And that is not necessary. I mean, not only because of the economics, I mean, economics is doing also not well, pretty bad. I mean, the rising costs of living that definitely and the missing of the economic growth targets.

And of course you can the external factors the Trump administration's global tariff the environment external environment is pondering but Arguably, I mean we are going to talk about later I mean the Philippines relation with United States being good at least right on the surface so despite the fact that the so-called good relationship

Philippines also been subjected to 17% of the tariff.

But I think the challenge, his problem does not necessarily all come from the economic, which is very good, very big. It comes from political side. I mean, the political struggle, the political rivalry with his partner, the vice president, Sarah Duterte, and the former president, Rodrigo Duterte, which I think with his approval or his admission, put him in the International Criminal Court waiting for trial.

So in particular for this election or midterm elections, the president has actually touted his so-called defense of sovereignty and campaigned on his tough stance on this South China Sea dispute with China. What is your take on this? And here, because we're talking about his foreign policy, what kind of foreign policy do you think is in the best interests of the Philippines?

Well, the short answer to your question, what will be the, what kind of foreign policy, I mean, he or the Philippines, Philippines should, I mean, have.

follow for the sake of the best interest of the country i think the short answer is clear i mean philippine the philippines has to do as is other asean countries by not taking sides and between the the the i mean china and the united states and by taking into account their their national interest into uh

into consideration and also follow the general policy of ASEAN. But unfortunately, that is the exact reason, I mean, the question is asking why he was

I mean, pursuing such a different approach - in terms of the foreign policy in general - and with China and the United States. This is primarily because of political consideration - and which makes him, I mean, Marcus Junior, - in a way that he played the game or plays the script - of the United States as a poem for US, - with China.

So we have seen that during the campaign, I think he and his party has been trying to provoke a kind of anti-China sort of narrative, try to put

his sort of rival, I mean, Vice President Sarah Duterte as a kind of a pro-China. That is exactly the reason. I mean, in the hope that it would help him politically to offset the economic sort of bad performance and the poor governance of China.

of his administration. Yeah, I take your point. So more on this domestic rivalry, political rivalry between the two sides that you mentioned, because this election is exactly, I mean, especially the part surrounding the race for the Senate is really seen as a key proxy battle between the president and the vice president.

I mean, actually, Marcos Jr. and the Duterte family began as a united front. It once swept the entire presidential election back in the year 2022. So how would you look at this very fact that this once united front has now become a bitter feud between the two sides?

That's again a great question. I think there are many speculations trying to explain the change or the kind of the attitude or the position between the two sort of partners, which represents the two political families or political claims. Obviously, I think

President Marcos Jr. seems unhappy or uncomfortable with the rising sort of

popularity of Sarah Duterte or I mean that feels that the rising popularity of Duterte families is going to undermine his own agenda which again a lot of people are speculating that he wanted to change the constitution to stay one more I mean longer than I mean one more sort of a

yeah of his presidency and that's why I think it put the election of the Senate at a huge great stake because he besides the ICC issues with the former president I think Sarah is also had a problem of that impeachment so if the result of the Senate turned out to be unfavor with Sarah and that would put

I think President Macron is in a better position politically to beat or to get rid of his rival, which is Sarah Sotter. Yeah, let's wait and see what's going to happen ultimately. But thank you very much for joining us. Rong Ying, Chair Professor with the School of International Studies, Sichuan University. That's all the time for this edition of World Today. I'm Dinghan in Beijing. Thank you so much for listening. Bye for now.

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